TLT - Long ItWent long TLT at pretty good support - I believe rates will come down here driving the rally and that some shorter term rates might even go negative a year out or so. Price targets listed.
TLT trade ideas
TLT LONGSTLT is staggeringly oversold, everyone and their dog is screaming about higher rates. Understandable, but how much is already priced in? Will the FED reverse course? Will and equity correction send $ back into bonds?
Hard to predict the news, but this chart is a screaming buy to me (on a 2-3 month timeframe). We MAY have one more low to the 116~ area which would be a slam dunk and make a beautiful divergence. I am long May20th and Jun 15th calls at 128/133 strikes.
TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis) Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio).
I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently.
I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal.
Cheers
A really good contra play on bonds for the coming month Multiple forms of technical analysis are saying that bonds (TLT) have gotten very oversold, and even though the trend is bearish, a short term bounce in the next 3-4 weeks is extremely likely. Currently it's appearing like a selling climax which could have a sharp reaction in the opposite direction.
STRATEGY: I have sold 120 puts for may 20 expiry as well as bought 127 calls.
Appreciate your feedback !
Bullish Gartley on the TLT Visible On Weekly TimeframeI'v been tacking this Gartley for a while now and eager to post it but opted to wait until it got closer to the PCZ before i posted and now we are pretty much here; This could signal the end of Rising Treasury Yields and the beginning of a Recovery Period within Equities and Securities. I will be taking profit on my Yearly TLT PUTs and buying some Yearly CALLs next week.
TLT - Perspective TLT appears to be bottoming/finding support. This also suggests that rates may be finding a top soon. But I do not expect stocks to reap the rewards thereof, as I expect Bonds to get bought up as a form of safety very very soon.
$TLT 20 Year Bond Quarterly Demand BreakoutTLT is at an area of Quarterly Chart demand with 2 other high probability areas for a long at Quarterly demand identified below. I have also included the Overall Market Maker Discount zone where price is likely to be driven before the great bond breakout. If you are Long on TLT, now is as good a time as any to start purchasing those Leap Options and building a long position with time.
$TLT looks like it's heading to the $120 rangeTLT looks like it's formed a massive weird looking head and shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe.
So far, it's managed to hold support in the $134 range. However, that range has been tested a number of times now that I think the next time it test on larger timeframes, support will break. There's little support between here and the $120s so the next logical target to me is at $122-123.
Eventually, I can see it hitting the lower targets at $114.
Let's see what happens over the next few weeks and months.
LONG $TLT $TLT on the monthly chart seems to be getting oversold to the downside and is trading into historical areas of support. Volatility indicator is showing exhaustion levels indicating bottom should be near.. Its worth noting the possible bullish divergence between RSI & Price if bottom is confirmed around $112 or above. Although bond market is basically in free fall mode, yields like US10 Yr are at historic resistance levels and are due for a reversal which should give TLT a bid. Risk/Reward on this seems attractive.
#TLT #HOURLY #MORNING #STAR #REVERSAL #PATTERN #MONDAY @financia#TLT #HOURLY #MORNING #STAR #REVERSAL #PATTERN #MONDAY
@financialbuzzgu :TWITTER
TLT - The "Experts" Can't Read A Chart Revisiting a call I made back in September that TLT was in a zig-zag correction down to $113 and got plenty of "expert" advice from @jscheurichiv, of how its "completely obvious" and the chart "no longer matters"
One thing seems to be common in all markets - there are plenty of "experts" that can't read a chart.
TLT rejected from 200DWMA.
See you at $115 😄.
TLT analysis using only great indicators ... TLT analysis using only great indicators ... demark 2x , divergence for many indicators
TLT....make or break!US yields have continued their move higher after our accurate call for a breather and our suggested targets were reached a few weeks ago in our february call for 10y yields. TLT has now moved to the "support" area that has proven to be a good buying opportunity a number of times in the last 15yrs. Inflation is here to stay and the FED who has been late seems ready to fight it with more aggresive hikes and QT in the comming months. Does this means that inflation and rates have peaked in the short term as the market has fully priced it in? We think there is a good chance for it, and we think that TLT could prove to be a good buying opportunity at current lvls ($126) for a trade. ultimatley rates will move higher, and the trend will break, but we dont think we are there yet as economy is slowing down and asset markets are likely to correct in the next few weeks/months.
TLT ReversalNASDAQ:TLT is showing signs of reversal with a reaction off the low of March 25th. Today's catalyst of dividend payouts made it open right at the 50% Retracement Level. If price holds this level a good Risk/Reward trade would take price back to 141 which is the 50% Retracement of the last few months' down trend.
TLT at 50% Fib retracement and approaching long term supportThe ETF TLT which is made up of long term US government bonds has been in a bear market for a couple of years.
It is now reaching lows which are at inflection points that could trigger a reversal.
Both Fib golden ratio and long term volume support as well as the bottom of a long term channel could be reached very soon.
If this long term dip gets bought it would also indicate a change in the trend of long term yields which also could trigger significant moves higher in the Nasdaq.
TLT 30m wolfe wave bullish 3/25A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
H&S Pattern Confirmed - Almost OversoldLooking at a few possible bottoms, the news cycle has been vicious for bonds, this is the sort of news you see at a possible bottom. Full on capitulation to get those bottom barrel discounts. RSI just entered oversold, but barely, going to start looking at taking a position, but not yet. It is attractive, but not free money yet. Likely want to take a position in the futures market instead of TLT calls and will start with 30 yr analysis.
Possible Bonds Breaking out?Bonds appear to be breaking out alongside DXY.
Record amounts of shorts have been piled onto Bonds to the order of 4 sigma - everyone and their dog is short bonds - so you know what that means!
Rates aren't rising, the Bond market sees what is coming - and it is deflationary. Use a leveraged Bond ETF such as TMF to capture the big move in bonds!
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE MAJOR LOW IN TLT .786RISKOFF trade is about to start the TLT is now in one of the lowest risk net longs in sometime . I view the wave a deflationary forces has started . and see major breakdown now in most everything that is in the form of a asset . I have now picked up a position in tlt calls as well . best of trades WAVETIMER
Long Bonds as yields hit resistanceYields have hit resistance and Bonds are showing potential strength. Here's $TLT at a bear extension to 1.272... A possible buy point.
