$spy $tlt $lqd Time to get long Bonds? I think soWe have a bullish engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI signal. Recession is coming time to be long bonds I think. Contrarian signal as well. Nobody wants bonds
TLT trade ideas
TLT - Target Hit !!! 🥳🎈🎈I first called this back in September that TLT would hit $113 (then $114) and now in May my target is hit.
This was another call where I received comments that the chart doesn't matter because XYZ but really the chart does matter as this was just a 1:1 zig zag correction.
So what next?
Well... I dont know currently because a fibonacci projection is just a landmark for a potential reversal. It doesn't itself prove a reversal though there will probably be a lot of short covering in this area.
Also just below @ 111.9 there is a low from 2018 and there will be short covering there also which could potentially be a bottoming area.
However, from a charting perspective this can still go lower. There has been nothing noteworthy for the bullish case as yet.
And I had a charting comment on a previous page that questioned how indicators could be so oversold but not produce a bounce. And well the reason for that is because this could be a new trend unfolding.
It is worth noting though that the RSI here is slightly lower than previous low and there could be a reversal.
But all this depends on what type of wave this is currently. The potential C wave has been much steeper than than the A and that could mean it will form a 1:1.618 which would see it hit $95.
Or if there is a shakeout reversal at the lows here than that may prove to be a good buy signal. I'll wait and see.
Not advice.
Monthly chart of TLT. Next target 107 then maybe 100This monthly chart of TLT look pretty scary. 107 seems to be the next target then 100!
TLT's Death DomeVery bullish if you turn the chart upside down. It has clearly made a major top. Due for a bounce soon but it will only be a temporary reprieve before much higher long term interest rates are seen.
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.
TLT heading down to long-term pitchfork lineLooking for a reaction off the lower medium line on this long-term pitchfork. Patience
you down with TLT? Yeah you know me!TLT should find support at 110-108 level. ABC Correction almost finished on the monthly chart. 250 + in the coming years, once pension and hedge funds start looking for long term safety.
TLT - The Vesper
"Three measures of Gordon's, one of Vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet."
Best not to drink and drive, ya may just run into supthin...
OR...
FSD could end up taking you for a Ride.
Sh_t happens.
Hubris and the inability to compromise... lead to lots of Blood and Broken Glass.
TLT - watch for strong bullish reversal soon after 116 or 114Bearish toward 116 / 114
(Light blue) If TLT bounces strongly at 116 (Fib 1 Elliott zigzag from earlier highs weekly chart) expect it to move toward 128 and pause for a correction.
(Dark blue) If TLT passes through 116 to 114 (Fib 8), expect a strong bounce then climbing up the Fibonacci ladder toward 122 for a corrective move higher.
Waterfall into disaster zoneSurprisingly, I drew most of the lines and boxes in this chart about two years ago and it played out almost to the teeth. Now comes the most important part though as it may waterfall through that disaster zone and and as a result: all asset classes go POP... SWOOSH... SPLASH... or... KLUNK.
But after that, should be able to buy everything at a reasonable price including bonds.
NOTE: The FED may also get bowled over by the waterfall this time. It's meant to be pure water that cleanses out this dirty system.
TLT: Bonds ready for a big bounce?TLT (20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)
Huge drop since January 2022.
If you connect all the big lows since 2013 and draw a line you will notice that TLT is now sitting on a huge support and has starting to bounce off the 119 level (Green line).
RSI weekly and daily oversold.
Let's see if we can get a decent bounce.
I'm long April 29 call. We can target 125, then maybe 130.
Stop loss at 119.
Trade safe
We're in a Historic Bond Market CrashWith 2 year treasury rates targeting 9%+, bond prices will continue collapsing until de facto Yield Curve Control is implemented by the FED. Fed balance sheet will expand to over 40T over the next 5 years.
Update On Rates 22.4.27The current trend of mortgage interest rates, and the potential direction of where they are headed. Also see the link below for the dates of the next FOMC meeting that will have a large impact on interest rates.
www.fxstreet.com
www.federalreserve.gov
TLT starting to look like a buy TLT is finally starting to look like a buy. With a significant pullback it looks to be at the lower trend and price volume profile.
TLT Weekly Testing long-term support on the weekly chart. EMA 200 crossed EMA 50 (EMA death cross?) Good chance it fails to lower support as yields rise.
Let me know what you think.
TLT 2HR TFBreak of support Below @120.10. IF the BUYERS can Hold this KL , a retest to this BFVG zone and the top of TL resistance, could we breakout and FILL the Gap?
TLT/XLFTLT in relation to XLF back to the bottom of the decade-long wedge. I feel this is a decent risk on/risk off indicator. Risk off = bonds outperform banks; risk on = banks outperform bonds. Watching to see if the trend changes here.
TLT - Long ItWent long TLT at pretty good support - I believe rates will come down here driving the rally and that some shorter term rates might even go negative a year out or so. Price targets listed.
TLT LONGSTLT is staggeringly oversold, everyone and their dog is screaming about higher rates. Understandable, but how much is already priced in? Will the FED reverse course? Will and equity correction send $ back into bonds?
Hard to predict the news, but this chart is a screaming buy to me (on a 2-3 month timeframe). We MAY have one more low to the 116~ area which would be a slam dunk and make a beautiful divergence. I am long May20th and Jun 15th calls at 128/133 strikes.
TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis) Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio).
I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently.
I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal.
Cheers
A really good contra play on bonds for the coming month Multiple forms of technical analysis are saying that bonds (TLT) have gotten very oversold, and even though the trend is bearish, a short term bounce in the next 3-4 weeks is extremely likely. Currently it's appearing like a selling climax which could have a sharp reaction in the opposite direction.
STRATEGY: I have sold 120 puts for may 20 expiry as well as bought 127 calls.
Appreciate your feedback !
