TLT trade ideas
TLT UpWhy am I still expecting TLT to rise?
Let’s start with the fundamental reasons.
After the election, when we focus on Trump’s four main economic directions, it’s hard to think anything other than that we’re in for inflation growth, an increase in interest rates, and so on.
Specifically:
1. A 10-20% tariff on imported goods, and a sudden 60% on goods imported from China. This naturally points to price increases for goods, and we’ve already seen this kind of policy back in 2016. However, in the past eight years, many geopolitical perceptions have changed, and the US position in the global market is substantially different from what it was eight years ago. Some restrictions on certain types of goods might be possible, but applying tariffs across all goods? - I don’t believe so.
2. Income tax reduction. What does this mean? Yes, it’s a realistic but very low-weighted plan. In line with populism, there will be a reduction in taxes, but it can hardly have a significant impact on the overall US budget deficit.
3. Deporting immigrants. To some extent, it will have a minimal effect on the labor market. It’s important to note that immigrants’ labor is not generally secured within the US labor market anyway, and it’s unlikely that US residents would have greatly expanded opportunities in their place.
4. Growth in energy production volumes. It would be redundant to write long paragraphs on how this will have a positive impact on prices.
These four points sum up the populist promises. In another reality, the US Federal Reserve is successfully battling inflation; abnormally high rates only harm issuers, while European spreads are reaching historical highs. After the 1980s, Bond Vigilantes might be set for a return, which would pose significant problems for US Treasuries.
We’re waiting for the Fed’s press conference today.
TLT - head and sholdersThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is experiencing downward pressure, and a head and shoulders pattern in its technical chart suggests further potential declines. This formation, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, is being reinforced by several factors:
1. **Rising Treasury Yields**: Higher yields, especially on 10-year Treasury bonds, reduce the appeal of long-duration bonds, causing TLT's value to drop as yields increase.
2. **Strong Economic Data**: Robust economic indicators, including strong GDP growth and low unemployment, have heightened expectations of future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which dampens long-term bond prices.
3. **Political Developments**: Potential spending cuts or fiscal adjustments under a changing administration are influencing market dynamics, contributing to the rise in yields and the downward trend in TLT.
This combination of technical patterns, economic conditions, and political considerations supports a bearish outlook for TLT, which could benefit short positions in the near term.
TLT bullish Looks like it will go exactly to the backtest lining up with fib level. From there ill ride the complete wave down.
$TLTThis is the monthly chart of TLT dating back to inception. That blue channel predates the GFC and in my mind is an area of value for obtaining a return on risk through the monthly dividend. Nothing fancy, just a decent return using a liquid ETF.
$TLT WaitingI like NASDAQ:TLT down here. I'm looking for lower prices to add to my position from the Blue channel. This could end up being my largest position. Not yet though.
TLT BONDS US10Y US30Yplayed to perfection, now for price to keep moving up, it should recover the the uptrend
TLT - Golden CrossThe Golden Cross is the Creme de Crop when it comes to longer minded individuals.
I'm liking this 20Y bond ETF for the reasons listed on the chart.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Mark 8:36 - For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?
Acts 4:11-12 - This Jesus is the stone that was rejected by you, the builders, which has become the cornerstone. And there is salvation in no one else, for there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved.”
TLT LONGThis needs a couple more months but watching this ascending triangle form to buy dips for continuation
Needs until 2025 to play out.
Looking to buy dips to 94, with a stop loss at 90 and a target of 105 and 119.58.
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
TLT bullishLooks like its forming some triangle. Well, if it breaks out we will head for the backtest. But stoploss below last low.
Huge inverted head and shoulders in bonds.I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns.
I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just been waiting for a suitable capitulation to support to enter.
Long now.
TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
TLT Monthly Candle TLT monthly candle matches the trend perfectly and is exactly at multiple strategic supports. This sort of perfection usually only occurs when the trend is long determined and the asset is simply dotting eyes and crossing tees on its way to a predetermined destination.
TLT/TLT5 Indicates TLT BBOTThe current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
TLT Double B O T (BBOT Bond Blast Off Time)TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
TLT/FEDFUNDS might be indicating BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time)Slope of the ratio between Bonds and US Rates looks like 2008 and 2019, right before blast off time.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.
TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
