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TLT trade ideas

Fight or Flight.TLT is the most interesting instrument for me to analyze. That's what has me concerned about the upcoming CPI. You know when you are flying a plane and the instruments all start flashing and making noises. That's what is happening the past week in equities, bonds and FX. Trends are THE most important factor in a traders arsenal. TLT trend follows liquidity. If liquidity is rising (TLT UP), risk is on, if liquidity is drying up (order book getting thin), risk moves to off conditions. TLT and S&P 500 Dealer Directional Open Interest (DDOI) gamma exposure is another measurement of liquidity. Liquidity over the past week has been under tight control and pulling back in cases like TLT. While we are seeing big distributions intraday in equities from short squeezes and earnings hit or misses, I'm not reading that in liquidity. It could be the fact that all 3 hedged equity funds are positive and support along with long call flows that reminisce in 2020-21 Bull Market. Underlying weaknesses may be lurking post CPI. If TLT breaks this trend line lower (< 103), it will likely be the earliest indicator that liquidity is drying up. TLT on a positive uptrend meant positive flows in indexes. The trifecta, Bonds, S&P and Hedge Equity Flows all supportive flows. It's the primary reason I was bullish at the the following point. DXY is another important trend to follow. If US wants to export inflation, it would start with a trend reversal higher. I expect DXY will come back down to test the 20D prior to CPI (FEB 14). That's when I think when the fireworks will begin, maybe a LEFT tail and maybe a RIGHT I missed the last CPI print in my series on Has It Peaked. This idea and the Window of Weakness idea are just primers for what is shaping up to be an explosive few weeks ahead VIX is acting different these past few weeks. I think we are at a Nadir on the VIX and this CPI print right in front of VIXperation/OPEX is when we'll know Higher for Longer or Viva la'Bull FEB 14 - CPI FEB 15 - VIXPERATION FEB 18 - OPEX FEB 20 - Exchange Holiday So lots of potential for Volatility. Vol should be well supplied into CPI and depending on direction and how dealers are positioned for VIX/OPEX should see larger distributions than normal. Good if you're a convexity trader. FEB 20 Holiday is important because it's happening during a window of weakness while technical flows will be weakest until March.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SPYvsGME
4
TLT daily - warning warning TLT is in a symmetrical triangle and formed triple top just below 200 days MA or as we call it BigRed. TLT or 20 years bond is losing momentum, especially after job reports on Friday which is an indication of still hotter inflation or better say probably an increase in the FED fund rate in near future. It moves from the bottom really nicely on speculation that FED will stop increasing of its fund rate but for how long. Volume is more bearish than bullish as those red days are on increased volume. It is below all major MA which is bearish. RSI is in neutral territory. MACD is more bearish than bullish as the MACD line cross below the signal line signaling a lack of momentum in price while histograms tick lower and lower. Overall: TLT is in down spiral and is losing momentum which got from the idea that it is all over with rate hikes and that FED will pivot. However, after job reports and Powel statement, more FED fund rates increasing are in front of us, and it's becoming bearish. It could/should find some support at the lower trend line but likely not for a long time. Next week we will have the CPI report which will move TLT on one side or another. With breaking below the trend line short position would be triggered. From the bullish side, breaking above the trend line and BigRed buy signal would be triggered.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Consistent_Trades
TLT possible support and bullish setup TLT had a nice reversal double bottom at the $93 area. It then started a nice uptrend to about $110. I marked this on the chart as the first leg of the trend based Fib tool. TLT then pulled back and found support at $100, this is the second leg of the trend based Fib on the chart. After that TLT tested the $110 area two more times which coincided with the .618 level on the Fib trend. Right now TLT is pulling back towards the Fib .382. This level is around $105.5 which also has several support touches. It is likely that TLT will bounce back from here to test $110 again IMO. If not, the stop loss can be pretty tight under 105.5 If $110 breaks, the 1:1 extension is at around $115.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Kalopida
$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here. Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLT
by IvanLabrie
Inverse Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern ConfirmedAn inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June. Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell. Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85 Bond bears are calling this reversal a trap/mistake suggesting a Mistake in 2 rate cuts in the 2nd half of 2023. I only monitor TLT for technical analysis and to confirm / invalidate trends for the S&P 500. Not financial or trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYvsGME
1
Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
Include $TLT in Your Portfolio 🪙Bonds are seriously underperforming stocks and TLT has been on a downtrend since the onset of Covid lockdowns when global governments printed massive amounts of money to prop up the equity markets. In Oct 2022, TLT broke below the 2014 low and then recovered nicely. I believe allocating like 10% in treasuries will be beneficial with the outlook of 2-4 years as we can expect the world to start to work around the sticky high interest rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by raamraj
Treasuries 2023 outlook. Bad things will happen.The overwhelming majority of 1-3-5 structures exhibit the time property where the market spends less time between 3-5 compared to 1-3. The ratio between the two usually lies between 0.382 and 0.786. This gives us a very good indication that 2023 will indeed by the pivotal year for the Treasuries. It is my firm belief that the sell-off in Treasuries will reach a point where a global repricing of all yielding assets will happen, causing the crash in the markets worldwide. If it's not happening yet, it only means that Treasuries haven't moved low enough. They will keep grinding lower and investors will be forced to take notice. 2023 will be the time when SPX will hit 1500, while EURUSD will finally reach 0.75, and EURJPY will land below 88.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AndyM
3
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics