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TLT trade ideas

Latest Rate Trend The current probability of interest rates, as depicted in the chart, indicates an improvement rather than a decline, with the expectation of this trend emerging shortly. Presently, I am opting to float rather than lock rates, at least until next week. The Federal Reserve's modest increase of 25 basis points suggests a potential deceleration or cessation of rate hikes. The imminent failure of PacWest Bank highlights the impact of the Fed rate hikes on the economy, necessitating a pivot or reversal to prevent widespread failures.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PayItForwardLending
Wave 4 still has the powerThe trend still remains possessed by the triangle in wave 4. FOMC meeting is tomorrow, and waves E of major trends often end on the news. The news never define the market. Traders wait for the news not to trade the actual statistics or decision, but to see what the others will be doing in response to the news. A few seconds or minutes after the news hit the wire the entire process of "trading the news" gets reduced to simply looking at the charts and trading the structures that have been there since long. This week the TLT chart should produce a spike towards 108..110, potentially even making a shallow new high, and then the structure will be completed, the triangular wave 4 will end, and wave 5 will begin. Wave 5 of the sell-off in Treasuries is inevitable, it will bring 10Y to 10%, cause a crash of the Euro to 0.75, and will force SPX to land at 1500. In the next 2-3 months we are going to see an event that never happened in the history of the markets.
NASDAQ:TLT
by AndyM
Long bond TLT looking more and more constructive in this rangeThe TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started a position here and would add on strength on continuation.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by EvanMedeiros
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NASDAQ:TLTShort
by PayItForwardLending
1
How I will profit from a major global recession with this tradeIn my opinion, the global economy is heading into dark times. I have revised my initial position of shorting equities to a much smaller position and instead will be going long government credit via TLT. What's nice about this speculation is it pays you to own it vs the other option of shorting equities. The banking crisis has shown the cracks in the global economy. Not just in the US but globally. Yield curves from Germany to Canada are completely inverted. Typically liquidity is in the highest demand during the Spring and Fall. I expect this trade to pay off in late Q3 or Q4 of this year. The yield curve does NOT lie! It is predicting a major US recession. What we just saw with the regional banks in the US and Credit Suisse is just the start. During that crisis, we once again saw how bonds were massively in demand as people scrambled to get liquidity through safe assets. There is nothing more technical about this trade than support and resistance and price action. This is a fundamental trade. A trade that I will be extremely aggressive with on my sizing as I believe the probabilities are very high.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarketManiaCA
8
TLT 4 TH WAVE TRIANGLE ENDING DOWNSIDE 85Iam posting the chart as a new Warning to All traders I see this as nearing it s end . I will state if this wave structure turns down from the time window we are entering into my panic cycle May panic and panic low june 16 to the 23 th 2023 is the next spiral as stated jan 20th 2023 forecast . the Importance of the march 13 /23 spirals back to june 13th 1949 plus the other 3 spirals are a cluster at each cluster of spirals events have occurred MARCH 13 2023 AUGUST 16TH 2022 OCT 13TH 2022 SEPT 6TH 2021 AND MY MARCH 18TH TO THE 21 ST 2020 . .BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !!!
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by wavetimer
2
Treasuries 2023 updated outookWave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3. I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these observations, here we have out timing estimates for w5 completion: 0.382 - June 6 (too fast.. 0.382 ratios are rare, but still possible) 0.5 - August 15 0.618 - October 23 0.786 - January 31, 2024 So, realistically, we are going to see Treasuries bottom out in September-October. By that time the market will achieve the "impossible four": - 10Y paper will hit >10% - SPX at 1500 - EURUSD at 0.75 - USDJPY at 100
NASDAQ:TLT
by AndyM
10
% BONDS & INTEREST RATESThere's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term rates. Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. A rise in bond price means a lower interest rate and vice versa. 📈📉 Let's have a look at the long-term chart. I'm using the weekly timeframe to remove the day-to-day noise. You can see that since the January 2020 peak, bond prices have fallen. This was when interest rates bottomed and started rising. The bear market in bonds extended to Oct 2022. Subsequently, we have seen a rally in bonds and therefore a drop in interest rates. The multi-trillion dollar question is: Was Oct 2022 the BOTTOM i.e. has interest rates peaked? My technical view is that the bearish trend in bonds is still the dominant force. So far the bounce off the bottom does not yet signal a trend reversal. For this to be the case, I need to see TLT move higher beyond 114. IF price moves beyond 114, I would be more confident in stating that at a minimum there has been a Change in Behaviour. At that price level, the size of the upward move would be the largest since the Jan 2020 top. Larger than the upward bounce that began in Mar 2021 and ended in Nov 2021. A Change of Behaviour signals that market participants are starting to have differing opinions. It is this change in opinion that sow the seeds as the first step required for a trend change. If the bond price falters prior to reaching beyond 114, it is highly likely that we have not seen the bottom and higher interest rates should be expected. Clearly the next few weeks will be crucial in that determination. I will update my thoughts as the price evolves.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by mrstockyetoro