SMH - Inverse H&SSMH has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Looking for a bounce to 169-170 if it can close above the neck line. Trading this with SOXL if pattern confirms.
SMH trade ideas
$SMH Cup & Handle PatternWait for a pull back to the blue trend line before buying. A close below and the pattern fails. Best moves come from failed moves.
Cup & Handle Pattern The NASDAQ:SMH (Semiconductor ETF) is exhibiting a Cup & Handle pattern in technical analysis. This bullish continuation pattern involves a rounded bottom (cup) followed by a consolidation period (handle). Investors often anticipate an upward breakout after the handle formation, suggesting potential positive price movement in semiconductor stocks.
$SMH Looking for Gap Fill?The semiconductor sector has been on fire since bottoming out at the end of October. In fact, the low to the high in November was just over 21%! Some consolidation of those gains would be healthy.
I am looking for the NASDAQ:SMH ETF to fill the gap from Nov 14th. I am not predicting that it will however, I am thinking that is a good possibility. I have an alert set just above the gap fill. If that triggers, I will be looking for a reversal back up for a long entry. All TBD. NASDAQ:SOXX is a similar ETF with a similar pattern so whichever one you prefer I think is worth putting on a watchlist.
I ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
SMH ELLIOT WAVE STRUCTURE WAVE 5 of 3 ended165.5The chart posted can now be posted and the ew labeling we have now ended or will end wave 5 of 5 of wave 3 top and begin a sharp drop in thr sox and smh back down for a week or more in wave 4 of 5 of 5 then The last wave up will end the rally from oct 13 th 2022 in super cycle degree and we will then see a drop back to .382 to 50 % from 2009 once more in wave A of the super cycle bear POINT for reference see 1998 to 2000 Internet BUBBLE A.I Bubble
$SMH upward mean reversion incoming…$SMH:1D
Signal sitting just above the -3SD (136.46) and needs to reverse trend in order to maintain the strength of the longterm linear regression trend at 0.91 Pearson R^2. Given the strength of the multi-year trend, an attempt at an upward mean reversion to the 161.17 price region is not unreasonable to expect going into the end of the year.
I would expect resistance at the 0.5 Retrace (148.69) to the upside and trend could withstand a move down to the 1.382 (132.93) before trend began to ‘shatter’.
We have a minor bullish price/RSI divergence with price printing lower lows and RSI printing higher lows.
Price correlation to AMEX:SPY over the last 50 trading days is very strong at 0.88. Returns correlation to the AMEX:SPY over the last 50 days is relatively strong at 0.82 with a beta of 1.43X the broader market ( AMEX:SPY ).
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
$SMH Cup & Handle Pattern ### Technical Analysis Overview: VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ) – Cup & Handle Formation on Weekly Chart
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH ), which tracks the performance of the semiconductor sector, is currently exhibiting a classic Cup & Handle pattern on its weekly chart. This pattern is a significant indicator in technical analysis, often suggesting a potential bullish continuation.
#### Understanding the Cup & Handle Pattern
The Cup & Handle is a bullish chart pattern that typically forms during an uptrend and is indicative of a period of consolidation followed by a potential breakout. It consists of two main parts:
1. **The Cup**: This part of the pattern represents a period of consolidation, starting with a gradual decline in price, followed by a bottoming out and a recovery back to the starting level. The cup should have a rounded or "U" shape, indicating a stabilization of price after a downturn.
2. **The Handle**: After the formation of the cup, a slight downward drift in price forms the handle. This is usually a smaller retracement and does not fall deep into the cup. The handle can be seen as a bullish flag or pennant and represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential upward breakout.
#### Implications for NASDAQ:SMH
For NASDAQ:SMH , the emergence of the Cup & Handle pattern is an encouraging sign for bullish investors. It suggests that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF might be preparing for a continuation of its previous upward trend.
#### Key Aspects to Monitor
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A strong move above this level, preferably with increasing trading volume, could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should be relatively shallow compared to the cup and show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume Analysis**: An authentic breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in trading volume, providing additional confirmation of the pattern’s validity.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors considering positions in NASDAQ:SMH should closely observe the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the rim of the cup could present a potential entry point for a long position, while a decline below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish outlook.
It is important to remember that while the Cup & Handle pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, it should be considered in conjunction with other indicators and market fundamentals to make well-rounded investment decisions.
$SMH Weekly Cup with Handle FormationNASDAQ:SMH could be a big beneficiary "if" interest rates level out or even start dropping. This Cup w/ Handle formation is also about a 2 year base suggesting that if / when it breaks out, it could have a big run. All TBD.
See Notes on chart for more of my thoughts. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome.
Opening (IRA): SMH January 19th 120 Short Put... for a 1.30 credit.
Comments: Adding another rung to my SMH position out in January at a strike better than what I have on in December at the 125, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Opening (IRA): SMH January 19th 115 Short Put... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the underlying. I currently have a December 125 and January 120, so this is at a better strike than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): SMH December 15th 125 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in December to my SMH position, targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate collar cost averaging into the underlying.
Opening (IRA): SMH Dec 15th/Jan 19th 112.5 Short PutsComments: Adding in at strikes better than what I currently have on (which seems to be a recent theme), targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
SMH bearish divergences Hi traders
Let's have a look at SMH.
We can see that bearish divergences has been formed.
Expecting a small bounce to the ressitance area shown on the chart (orange trendline) which would be an enty for short.
Target for shorts: 123 $
stop loss: 163,48 $
Do you agree?
Good luck
SMH | InformativeNASDAQ:SMH
If the ETF surpasses the bullish line situated approximately at $150.69:
Bullish Target Price 1: It seems that $152.30 is the immediate resistance, given the previous price reactions around this level.
Bullish Target Price 2: If it clears the aforementioned level, the next potential target could be $154.05.
If the ETF drops below the bearish line at $149.98:
Bearish Target Price 1: $148.20, based on the support line drawn.
Bearish Target Price 2: $146.65 seems to be the next level of support.
Bearish Target Price 3: The support appears to further deepen around $143.35.
Bearish Target Price 4: If the decline continues, $139.76 might act as a significant support given the volume profiles indicated.
Opening (IRA): SMH November 17th 130 Short Put... for a 1.32 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor ETF.
I have no current position on in SMH, so will look to add at intervals should IV remain decent (it's currently at 28.7%, but at the low end of its 52-week range).
Opening (IRA): SMH November 17th 125 Short Put... for a 1.26 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor exchange-traded fund. Here, I'm adding a rung at a better strike in the November monthly than what I currently have on.
#SMH Looks like a Double Top...smells like a double top
walks like a double top
#SMDH
Goblin town given time is the destination.
SMH Entry, Volume, Target, Stop
Entry: with price above 155.94
Volume: with volume greater than 6.58M
Target: 174.83 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 155.95, 146.50 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
SMH (daily) The problem with SMH:
Today is attempting some recovery off Fridays big red candle with what has potential to be a piercing candle, but needs to clear at today's close above Friday's pivot at 147.84 to offer any hope.
The test is label B, at 143.35. Bulls will want this to hold, or it will be a fast trek down from there.
9/21/23 will be a key day, if the time cycles hold up.
SMH: Are semis breaking down?Last time we saw the bullish moving average cross of the 7MA & the 590 MA we saw a superb rally over 2.5months.
This time we are seeing a bearish cross of the same 2 moving averages. Could this replicate the move to the downside?
Don't say we didn't caution you!
Semis and FractalsIf you like fractals, you will love this. Ratio of SMH to SPY shows a possibility of repeating an earlier fractal where there is a big drop in the SMH compared to SPY (SMH/SPY ratio).
As with any ratio, one needs to gauge the action of the numerator as well as the denominator.
So, either SMH declines faster than SPY, or SPY increases faster than SMH (optimistic).
Looking at a standalone SMH chart, I say SMH is due for a big correction.
Are Chips Losing Their Edge to Software Stocks?Semiconductor stocks have surged this year, thanks in large part to NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia. But they could be losing relative strength to software makers within the technology sector.
Today’s main chart focuses on the NASDAQ:SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which closely tracks the NASDAQ:SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. It recently slipped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which may signal weakness over the intermediate term.
The lower study shows its relative strength versus the NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100. Notice how it’s mostly lagged the broader index since late June.
Next, consider the same chart and studies for the AMEX:IGV iShares Software ETF. It’s shown the opposite patterns. Price is above the 50-day SMA and relative strength against the Nasdaq-100 has recently improved.
The last chart compares these two ETFs as a ratio (IGV/SMH). It uses monthly candles to provide a long-term view. Software could be turning up from a 17-year low, which may also suggest relative strength is shifting between these two major groups within the key technology sector.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
1-year: +45.61%
5-years: +186.80%
10-years: +741.25%
iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV):
1-year: +28%
5-years: +79.25%
10-years: +390.50%
(As of August 31, 2023)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TESLA Dojo stole the show from NVDA!I published my analysis about AI bubble burst in August, now it looks like TSLA supercomputer Dojo has attracted market attention and drain liquidity out of NVDA and cryptocurrency market!
At the time of writing this article TSLA is +9.1% and NVDA -2.16%, and my quantitative model scored TSLA +10 (Max buy) and NVDA -10 (max sell).
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency market lost the 1 trillion market cap after 4 months.
Why I believe TSLA surge is at the expense of NVDA and CRYPTO?
If you are looking at the comments on this platform and other social media, you will see the population who trade or invest in TSLA, NVDA or crypto have pretty much same traits, culture, vocabulary, and patterns of behavior!
While in the first half of 2023, NVDA stole the momentum from TSLA, Dojo (TESLA supercomputer) brought back the momentum to TSLA!
What we know about Dojo?
Tesla Dojo is a supercomputer designed and built by Tesla for computer vision video processing and recognition. It will be used to train Tesla's machine learning models to improve its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver-assistance system. According to Tesla, it had begun to be used in production in August 2023.
Dojo is a custom-designed supercomputer that is optimized for processing video data. It is made up of a large number of custom chips called Dojo Pods, which are each capable of processing 1.8 teraflops of data per second. The Dojo Pods are interconnected by a high-speed network, allowing them to work together to process massive amounts of data.
Tesla Dojo is expected to be one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. It is estimated to have a peak performance of 1.8 exaflops, which is more than 100 times the performance of the previous generation of Tesla supercomputers.
Dojo will be used to train Tesla's FSD models on a massive dataset of real-world driving data. This data is collected from Tesla's fleet of over 4 million vehicles, which are equipped with cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors. The FSD models will use this data to learn how to drive safely and autonomously in a variety of conditions.
Dojo is a key part of Tesla's plan to achieve full self-driving. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that Dojo will allow Tesla to train its FSD models in a matter of weeks, rather than the months or years that it currently takes. This will accelerate the development of Tesla's self-driving technology and help the company to achieve its goal of making its vehicles fully self-driving by 2024.
Tesla produces the Dojo chip. It is a custom-designed chip that is optimized for processing video data. The Dojo chip is manufactured by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) using 7 nanometer (nm) semiconductor nodes, has 50 billion transistors and a large die size of 645 mm2 (1.0 square inch).
There is no NVDA chip in Dojo.
The Dojo supercomputer is powered by Tesla's own Dojo chip, which is a custom-designed chip that is optimized for processing video data. Tesla has not yet released any information about the specifications of the Dojo chip, but it is believed to be a very powerful chip.
In August 2023, Tesla announced that Dojo was now in production use, configured with 10,000 Nvidia chips. However, these chips are not used to power the Dojo supercomputer. Instead, they are used to accelerate the training of Tesla's FSD models.
Tesla has a long-standing partnership with Nvidia, and the two companies have worked together on a number of projects. However, Tesla is increasingly developing its own chips in-house. This is a trend that is being seen across the automotive industry, as automakers seek to gain more control over the technology that powers their vehicles.
It is possible that Tesla may use Nvidia chips in future versions of Dojo, but for now, the supercomputer is powered by Tesla's own chips.
Technical analysis:
Crossing below 143 will create higher low- lower Low in weekly chart,
The top 10 holdings of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) are:
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - 21.64%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) - 10.25%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - 5.48%
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) - 4.79%
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) - 4.57%
ASML Holding NV (ASML) - 4.56%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - 4.28%
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) - 3.95%
Intel Corporation (INTC) - 4.87%
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) - 3.72%
The place on a chart where the bulls come out to party - AND WHYThe SMH is the semi conductor exchange traded fund (EFT). This chart is a perfect example of the place where traders can generally count on a bull bear battle.
When price is falling, the human nature tendency is to think what's happening now will continue to happen in the near term.
All charts act and react the same way. In fact, Mrs. Market is simply running a test of an important area where it will be "show time" for a bull bear battle...
This example is a "breakup candle low" which is an important spot on all charts, all time frames where a test is normal as is a bounce, at least for a trade, or more...
This and many other concepts are discussed InsideTheNumbers LIVE and our nightly common sense market analysis videos on YouTube
