SMH trade ideas
SMH: Not Smart to Long Semiconductor Index Right NowIt is not a smart decision to open long positions in the semiconductor sector right now (TSM, NVDA, ASML, INTC, AAMT, AMD... etc).
As the chart show, the overall performance on SMH is still on the downside trend, blocked by the resistance line on the necklace of the head-shoulder pattern.
But it doesn't mean that it is time to short the semiconductor sector, it is better to stay neutral and see if we have the chance to buy the cheap chip in around 200 USD.
If the market wouldn't give us the chance to buy in deep, then we can try to create the new positions again when SMH breaks through the resistance and goes with a new uptrend.
$SMH Semiconductor ETF Holds Trendline
Lots of pain among the tech bulls in recent weeks and the SMH has been the cause of much of that pain.
Despite a unprecedented demand and pricing power the sector is unable to meet demands as deep rooted politics has caused supply chain issues.
Earning beats have been ignored as guidance has failed to overwhelm analysts and investors.
This week we must look for strength in AMD and NVDA in particular, both companies have seen considerable outflows and attempted rallies have been rejected fast.
On a positive note the SMH has maintained its March 2020 uptrend, it retraced and held the 0.236 Fibonacci level and also held the 100ma (ema) .
All 2 of these supports is now the line in the sand for us, below these supports trouble is ahead.
Semis to the moonLONG NVDA LONG TSM LONG KLAC LONG SEMIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But seriously, semis have broken out. I expect a test, but clearly semis have both cyclical and secular tailwinds. It is a no brainer to go long in a "bet the farm" type bet.
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.
How I use daily weekly stoch Part 2 Swing tradingSPY 385 the 360 then boom new highs or we boom from here
all up to banks earnings.
So far small short until confirmedDescending triangle to push it down
Need to see a trend line break in order to go long term though
SMH Breakout Pattern, Trade UpdateSMH Breakout is on-going as we are holding our long positions into 2021. The motive impulse is still in progress, look to stretch profits into wave (3) upside target 236 and then 265.
SMH - Neutral but Slightly Bearish Nearterm
Not trading advice. Just journaling my chart entry here.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Notice Semiconductors is leading the charge with the S&P which is positively correlated. Updates on existing longs on SMH that is likely to extend this terminal rally into 220-230 until there is irrefutable evidence to consider the top is in.
Halloween is over - but this is still spooky!Semiconductor ETF (SMH Monthly candlestick chart, displaying a large upper shadow for October.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Updates on existing Long position on SMH from last week that have moved in the money. SMH is unfolding into wave 5 that could reach 190-195. The key is to stretch existing profits on SMH with the daily chart that shows SMH terminal wave 5 rally is in progress.
SMH Existing Long Position (Wave 5 Bullish)Updates on existing Long position on SMH from last week that have moved in the money. SMH is unfolding into wave 5 that could reach 190-195. The key is to stretch existing profits on SMH with the daily chart that shows SMH terminal wave 5 rally is in progress.
$SMH Chart review$SMH looking great! retesting last month's range and above all EMAs. if we hold, could see ATH test.
SMH Bullish Trade Setup (Potential Breakout) We’re tracking a breakout pattern on SMH as semiconductors are setting up for another wave higher into wave (v). Look to setup Longs on SMH expiring Nov-Dec. Detailed Trade Execution on Video Update.
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
SMH/QQQ Ratio ChartMy Favorite Ratio Chart. Semiconductors are a leading indicator of the Tech sector.
Typically has a timely divergence with few false signals.
Best,
RH
