Peloton Long for a Quick TradeFilled at 7.42. It's due for a bounce.
Stop @ 7.25 below the recent lows.
PT #1: 7.65
PT # 2: 7.80
PTON trade ideas
$PTON When Ambitions Run Wild One of the largest luxury exercise equipment makers in the US, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON), Peloton stock was one of the stocks that gained a lot of traction during COVID-19. Amidst the lockdown, PTON’s sales skyrocketed; gyms were closed, and people wanted to exercise while locked in their homes. After the lockdown restrictions eased, PTON found itself in a tough spot. Gyms were open again, and other competitors like Life Fitness which were more focused on the commercial gym space thrived again. The inventory PTON built to meet demand became a liability. Today, PTON stock has lost more than 94% of its value and is now trading below $8.00, a far cry from its all-time high of $167.42 in 2021.
PTON Fundamentals
Recent years weren’t kind to PTON; its revenue after the pandemic boom is decreasing, and it still can’t make a profit from its “Connected Fitness Products”, and while it is turning a profit from its subscriptions, it’s still not enough to make the business profitable as a whole. PTON tried a new strategy in 2022 by appointing the former Netflix and Spotify CFO, Barry McCarthy, as its new CEO.
One of the new strategies PTON tried was branching out of exclusively selling its products on its website and selling them on Amazon and Dick’s Sporting Goods, reducing its logistic costs and exposing its products to a new audience. PTON also started focusing on cutting operating costs and increasing its revenue from its members’ subscriptions, which PTON succeeded at as its subscription revenue increased YoY in Q3 2023 by 15% from $369 million to over $424 million. Furthermore, PTON cut its marketing expenses by more than 32% and laid off more than half of its employees by the end of 2022 – reducing its operating expenses by more than 41%. But PTON still suffered from a drop in sales of its hardware, which declined more than 45% from last year.
PTON saw a 27% year-over-year decline in website traffic, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk. Some think the decline makes sense since PTON started selling its products on Amazon and Dick’s Sporting Goods, so the decline in web traffic doesn’t necessarily mean a decline in its sales too.
The decline in sales can probably be attributed to PTON shifting to the more profitable subscription model and focusing on increasing free cash flow, which in turn slows down its growth. “Our business has shifted more towards subscription relative to Connected Fitness hardware. So as the app grows as a larger share of our business, that will continue to shift, and more of our revenue will be coming from subscription.” McCarthy said on the company’s earnings call. That may be worrying as it is expected that PTON will lose subscribers in Q4 for the first time in its history. CEO Barry McCarthy warned investors and analysts, saying “Q4 will be among our most challenging from a growth perspective.”
The standing debt of a $1 billion convertible note loan and a $690 million term loan due in 3 years doesn’t help PTON’s case much either, as it probably won’t be able to get another zero-interest loan due to the current economy. As of now, PTON has only $873 million of cash on its balance sheet, most of which will be tied to paying off the debt, as it probably won’t be able to meet the debt’s conversion rate of $239 per share. That, combined with PTON paying $75 million in settlements to DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) over multiple patent infringements and the decline in sales and revenue, puts PTON in a tough position. PTON’s options are limited; it will either have to turn profitable to look attractive to a potential buyer or if it doesn’t, PTON’s worst fear could become reality and it could file for bankruptcy as the debt’s due date gets closer and closer.
It’s not all doom and gloom for PTON, though; there are some positive takeaways, albeit not many. PTON’s efforts to cut operating costs are working, reducing its cash burn by 92% YoY, and PTON is still expected to grow its connected fitness subscriptions by 4% YoY. PTON is also expecting to break even in cash flow by the end of the year if the one-time $75 million settlement with DISH is excluded.
As Liz Coddington, PTON’s CFO, said in the company’s latest earnings call, “the DISH settlement and related expenses associated with that settlement will put pressure on our free cash flow in Q4. So if you exclude those items, we actually are pretty close, but within striking distance of achieving free cash flow break-in.”. Additionally there is $625 million in PTON’s inventory that, if it successfully reduces, PTON would be saving a considerable amount of valuable storage costs, which would explain the collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). PTON is seemingly taking a lot of steps in the right direction, but it may still not be enough.
PTON Financials
In its Q3 2023 report, PTON reported $1.8 billion in assets including $874 million in cash and cash equivalents which marked a decline in PTON’s assets from $2.6 billion including $1.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
PTON’s total liabilities declined YoY from $3.4 billion to $3.1 billion, as its current liabilities decreased from $1.1 billion to $813.2 million, while its long-term debt saw a slight decrease from $2.331 billion to $2.330 billion
Revenue declined YoY from $964 million to $748 million, while the gross profit increased from $184 million to $270 million, due to a decrease in its cost of revenue from $780 million to $478 million. Operating losses decreased YoY from $735 million to $266 million and its net loss improved from $757 million to $275 million.
Technical Analysis
PTON stock’s trend is bearish, with the stock in a downward channel. PTON is trading below the 50 and 200 MAs which is a bearish indication and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover. Meanwhile, PTON is trading above the 21 MA and the RSI is neutral at 49.
PTON stock just witnessed a major catalyst with the earnings release on May 4th, PTON stock is expected to further drop with the disappointing showing in the earnings release and the expected drop in subscribers in Q4. Considering the company’s massive debt load, bankruptcy could be a strong possibility for PTON.
With that in mind, a potential play could be going short with an entry on the retest of the 50 MA and take profits on retests of the 21 MA, the $6.75 support, and the retest of the lower trend line. Given the many concerns surrounding PTON’s future prospects, going short on the stock could prove to be profitable for traders. However, it should be noted that PTON is highly shorted and short squeezes could occur considering its status as a meme stock.
PTON Forecast
PTON is one of many cases of companies that thought they could sustain their growth after the pandemic but got hit hard by a different reality. The many measures taken to restructure the operations, including a more than 60% reduction in running costs, which led to a decrease in cash flow burn by 93% YoY. A sustainable and stable business may result from the shift to the subscription-based business model and attempts to boost cash flow. But as of now, PTON’s standing debt of $1 billion, decreasing YoY revenue, and the lack of sufficient cash flow will pose a challenge for its future.
PTON stock dipped more than 10% since the release of its Q3 earnings. Right now, PTON seems like a risky investment with no clear indications of its future, investors could be better off looking somewhere else.
Idea with up 100% growth potential In a sense, Peloton stock is a record holder.
Its stock is down 95% from its historic high.
In such companies, as a rule, a huge amount of short is collected.
With a small positive, the price begins to grow and shortists are forced to buy back securities at high prices, which accelerates the asset even more.
In NASDAQ:PTON shares, you can try the following trade:
• Long off price: $8.5
• Goals: $13.5, HKEX:17
• Growth potential up to 100%
• Volume per trade: up to 0.5-1% of the portfolio.
At current prices, the largest volume profile for the year.
The stock has been sideways for a long time and we believe that there may be a good upward momentum.
$PTON looking for some upward movement for a longBeen watching NASDAQ:PTON in this channel for a few weeks. Great place to go long if we can hold the channel with a potential move to the top of the channel. Will be watching this week to see if we can hold these higher lows and make some money.
NASDAQ:PTON had some great profits during COVID and then the recalls hit them hard. Stay disciplined traders!
Buying Peloton at trend of higher lows.Peloton - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 8.61 (stop at 7.97)
The trend of higher lows is located at 8.60.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to buy dips.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Our profit targets will be 10.14 and 10.54
Resistance: 10.00 / 11.00 / 12.00
Support: 9.09 / 8.40 / 7.68
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Look we know the bottom: here's why there's upsideWe found the bottom people. Look at that sideways movement. It's basically at the lowest it will be now. This stock is not going to 0 because let me tell you. The people who like peloton are not getting rid of their bikes. They're a huge up front investment and they are addicting as a form of workout. People aren't going to stop working out no matter what the rates do.
Peloton is an excellent stock to buy, as it has a strong track record of growth and is well-positioned to benefit from the current pandemic. The company is a leader in connected fitness technology and its connected bikes and treadmills have been popular in recent years, as the company seeks to capitalize on the trend of consumers looking for digital solutions to their fitness needs. Peloton also offers a variety of other products and services, such as group classes, virtual coaching, and a wide selection of streaming content. Peloton's financial performance has been impressive, with strong revenue growth and a healthy balance sheet, and the company is expected to continue to benefit from the current pandemic and its focus on the health and wellness market.
Peloton (PTON)- consolidating now and which way it will go?Peloton (PTON)- consolidating now and after economic data released tomorrow ( 09 March 2023), i believe the market will shows us the direction.
Red line- stop loss
Black lines- upward targets
PTON multiple scenarios2 Hour chart: earlier, today, key level of 15.15-15.30 identified, refined it to 15.07-15.23. Loss of this support and no real obstacles to next potential pivot area of 13.50-14.10. Seeing a lot of Resistance/Support flips. If basing occurs at above 15, could serve as double bottom for a bounce back to the Drop Based Drop Supply zone from April/May. If support lost, and this drops below 12, keep an eye on that demand zone on the 2 H time frame. 7.10-8.30, extreme scenario in the near term, is an order block that's been validated multiple times.
Dont hold this bag...This company's product is way overpriced. Competitors are much cheaper (with superior exercise equipment) and comparable subscription service. Please don't hold this bag. Disclaimer: shorted at 16.45 -> exited at 15.30; likely to reenter if it breaks 16.45 again. Will short stepwise with a target of 25$
potential rising pendant on $PTON?Ive been looking at some targets for peloton and noticed the recent pattern that looks to be a rising pendant
Peloton to fill Gap $13s...Ugly top candles, RSI overbought, MACD and Pro Blue Osc turning over. Looking to fill that $13 GAP.
PTON back to the drawing boardA week ago I swung some PTON calls and, expecting a bad ER (it really wasn't that great) I predicted a fall to below 12. Obviously that was not the case. Revisiting the chart, I believe we have a case for a bearish scenario based on the following: Rejection in drop based drop supply zone, gap that's yet to be filled and the reality that earnings were missed by almost 50%. If I'm not mistaken, the company has a problem with cash as well. This rally was unsustainable for those reasons and the macro-economic environment, which will likely lead to a longer rate hike cycle and a higher than anticipated terminal rate. The explosive price action left behind some very big imbalances and I can see a correction in the next few days/weeks. The question is, how fast will this correction be. If it happens suddenly enough, there can be tremendous downside momentum with 13.40 as a likely area of support, based on historical reaction to this zone. If the momentum smacks this down below 13.40, I'd keep an eye on 12.76, the 50% on the fib. 11.13, the 66%, would place this at an ideal spot for support on the 200 DMA.
PTON ReversalNice inverted cup and handle formed on PTON here with a break below VWAP before close. Think a continuation to the downside will happen here for a good chance to play some PUTS. Anyone else have some opinions on this stock?
$PTON - Pointless SqueezePeloton still has tons of debt, failed management. Sure it has its scrubscriptions to it's classes, but is this company really gonna grow? Covid striken times were good for this company, what's gonna happen next to bring value to what they're doing?
Overbought. Should have a pullback eventually.
Peloton (PTON) Rallies On Strong RevenuePeloton Interactive (PTON) rallies Wednesday after the second quarter financial results of fiscal 2023. The revenue came stronger than expectations, but the loss per share disappointed investors. Here are the key points:
Peloton Revenue dropped 30% from the previous year same period, at $792.7 million topping the expectations of $710 million.
The Loss per share was reported at $0.98 cents worse than the expectations of $0.64. That was the eighth quarter in a row with a loss.
The hardware revenue came at $381 million, much higher than the $204 million in the previous quarter.
Operating loss was $335.4M for the quarter vs the loss last year of $439M. The Gross margin was 29.7%.
Adjusted EBITDA was -$122M for the quarter vs. -$267M a year ago.
The total number of members in the quarter fell 1% Y/Y to 6.7 million.
Peloton CEO McCarthy said an epic comeback is underway as losses shrank in 4Q, calling it a turning point as they generated more sales from subscriptions vs connected fitness products for Q3. The CEO also said that headcount reductions are over.
Peloton Outlook
The company now sees third-quarter FY23 revenue of $690 million to $715 million, against the consensus of $692.14 million. Peloton expects third-quarter gross margin of 39% and Q3 ending connected fitness subscriptions between 3.08 million to 3.09 million.
Peloton Stock
As of writing Peloton stock is 20.57% higher at $15.59 on strong volume, boosted by the earnings report and short covering; the short interest was almost 15%.
PTON today hit the highest level since May 2022. The stock entered bullish territory in late January when the price breached above the 200-day moving average. The strong move today has also moved the price to an extremely overbought level as indicated by the RSI index which currently trades at 75.17 ringing a warning bell.
The stock has a 52-week trading range between $6.66 and $40.35. The market capitalization stands at $4.4 billion.
On January 11, Morgan Stanley maintains Peloton Iat Equal-Weight and cut the price target from $5 to $4.5. Goldman Sachs on November 4, kept Peloton Interactive at Neutral and cut the price target from $18 to $12.
PTON Pennant RevisionI think this pennant is setting up for earnings and Fed meeting next week.
Market has a $2 move priced in, but I think it'll move $3, and hit resistance or support. Expecting this to whipsaw around $11 until then, so no position.
Quite frankly, I'm bearish on earnings, but shorts tend to cover on bad news so we could see one of those stupid deals where it initially gaps down then goes parabolic, lol.
peloton incif price can reach to point 1, and then decrease, you must buy in point two.
but if price directly goes to point 3 you must sell in point 3.
PTON bear scenarioLast week I swung some calls for a 60% and 86% profit. Is PTON losing steam? Momentum slowed as it neared an area of distribution. If it fails to base at 12 and falls below it, there doesn't appear to be much in the way to $9.
Another PTON pennantEven garbage floats on a rising tide, so I assume this pennant is going to break upwards for a double top. $13 target.
Note: I am not long or bullish on PTON, I usually chart things before shorting, lol. I don;t think I'm shorting anything until the Fed meeting, this is a prime candidate next week though.
$PTON Peloton Inverse head & shouldersAnother inverse head and shoulders with bullish divergence on the lowest low. Bullishly engulfing here on the 3D potentially seting up for a 3bar play continuation.
Peloton remains a short.Peloton - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 12.98 (stop at 14.41)
The primary trend remains bearish.
This stock has seen poor sales growth.
The trend of lower highs is located at 13.15.
The previous swing high is located at 13.35.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 9.41 and 9.01
Resistance: 12.15 / 12.75 / 13.35
Support: 10.19 / 10.00 / 9.30
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
