Head and Shoulder patternNVDIA forming a head and shoulder pattern in the 4H. I will wait for a confirmation before targeting an entry for the downside.
NVDA trade ideas
Is the AI Revolution Built on a House of Cards?In the treacherous landscape of technological ambition, Nvidia emerges as a cautionary tale of unchecked corporate hubris and potentially unsustainable growth. What appeared to be an unstoppable technological juggernaut now reveals deep fissures in its seemingly impenetrable facade, with mounting challenges threatening to unravel its carefully constructed narrative of AI dominance. Specific challenges underscore this fragility: comments from Microsoft's Satya Nadella suggest a potential moderation in AI chip demand, while Alphabet's Sundar Pichai has highlighted that "the low-hanging fruit is gone" in AI model development.
Beneath the glossy veneer of technological innovation lies a troubling reality of regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. Nvidia faces a perfect storm of challenges: a potential slowdown in AI chip demand, an aggressive antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators, and growing skepticism from industry leaders. The competition is intensifying, with Amazon developing its own Trainium AI chips, and Broadcom positioning itself to capture significant market share with custom AI chip solutions projected to reach $90 billion in the next three years. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever's stark statement that "we've achieved peak data" further undermines the narrative of unbridled AI growth.
The broader implications are profound and deeply concerning. Nvidia's struggles represent a microcosm of the larger technological ecosystem—a world where innovation is increasingly constrained by geopolitical tensions, regulatory challenges, and the harsh economic realities of diminishing returns. Despite massive capital expenditures by tech giants—with Microsoft nearly doubling its spending to $20 billion and Meta increasing expenses by 36%—only 4% of US workers use AI daily. This stark disconnect between investment and actual utility exposes the potential fragility of Nvidia's market position, with analysts suggesting that 2024 may have been the peak in terms of percentage increase for AI-related infrastructure spending.
NVIDIA's Declined over 10%, Why? When will be the Buy timing? NVIDIA fell nearly 4% today before narrowing the loss to 1.22%. Since hitting a record closing high of $148.88 in early November, the AI chip maker's stock has dropped over 10%.
So, what is causing NVIDIA's decline?
Firstly, Supply Chain Issues and Challenges
NVIDIA faces multiple challenges in its supply chain, a significant factor in its stock decline.
First, according to the latest data, the order volume and schedules for the GB200 and GB300 have been adjusted. Particularly, the mass production and shipment of GB series products have been postponed until after the Lunar New Year in February, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, the small-scale production plans for GB300 face tight deadlines, putting pressure on GB200's mass production.
Specific supply chain issues include CoWoS-L packaging technology, heating problems, copper cable connections, and leakage issues. These not only affect product yield rates but also increase system integration time costs. Consequently, NVIDIA has suggested customers purchase the B200 8-card HGX as a transitional solution, and clients like Microsoft are considering switching their orders. These supply chain issues affect NVIDIA's product delivery capabilities and reduce market expectations for its future performance.
Secondly, Market Competition and Narrative Changes
ASICs are gaining market recognition as a competitive narrative.
ASICs are chips designed for specific tasks, akin to custom running shoes for a race. For certain tasks, ASICs outperform NVIDIA's GPUs (widely used for computing tasks) and are potentially cheaper.
OpenAI co-founder Ilya and industry leaders like Microsoft's CEO Satya have started discussing the importance of not only training AI models but also ensuring they can quickly and accurately make decisions in real applications. This shift in perspective gives ASICs an advantage in some scenarios, as they are designed for rapid, precise execution of tasks.
This raises questions about the cost of NVIDIA's GPUs. While powerful, they are expensive and require significant electricity and cooling. As ASICs perform better at lower costs for some tasks, there's consideration of replacing NVIDIA's GPUs with ASICs.
Additionally, changes in scaling law narratives and the strengthening of inference narratives pose threats to NVIDIA.
Scaling laws suggest that increasing AI model size (e.g., more neurons or layers) typically improves performance, but these gains are not infinite and require significant computational resources. This means NVIDIA must continually invest resources to improve product performance, potentially increasing costs.
Moreover, companies like BTC, Tesla, and Google are investing heavily in their own AI chips or solutions. This intensifies market competition and challenges NVIDIA's leadership.
Thirdly, Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Market sentiment and capital flow significantly impact NVIDIA's stock price. As the year ends, retail investors, ETFs, and institutions adjust their portfolios. Fluctuations in tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google affect tech stocks like NVIDIA. Investors are more cautious, favoring stable, promising companies.
Given these conditions, NVIDIA faces pressure on its stock price due to supply chain issues and competition. Lowered expectations for NVIDIA's future performance lead to capital outflows and stock price declines.
Fourthly, Future Outlook and Catalysts
Despite current challenges, NVIDIA has opportunities for a turnaround.
First, NVIDIA needs to resolve supply chain issues, improve product yield, and delivery capabilities. Second, strengthening its presence in software and applications is crucial to addressing market competition. Additionally, NVIDIA should explore new computing narratives to expand its computing potential.
Fifthly, Technical Analysis and Price Divergence
Previously, prices rose continuously, but volume and KDJ began to decline, showing divergence. Without capital support, upward momentum was insufficient, leading to a short-term adjustment and a break below the mid-term trend line, resulting in a mid-term callback.
When Might a New Rally Occur?
From a technical analysis perspective: After two prior mid-term adjustments, breaking the downward trend line may signal the start of a new rally. Thus, this new rally must first break the resistance line.
From a catalyst perspective: While January's CES and the earnings release in late February may not bring major surprises, March's GTC is worth anticipating. NVIDIA needs to showcase new technologies and products at this event to restore market confidence. If NVIDIA can introduce groundbreaking innovations, a stock rebound is possible.
HEAD & SHOULDER spotted?H&S spotted on NVDA , for this case , we will use $128-$130 as the H&S support.
if price break down below $128, will expect market dive down to 200MAs at $115 ,and next strong support would be sitting at $95 - $100.
if $128 supported well, we may expect a bounce up to $140 zone.
Pending for a confirmation.
Understanding Market Dynamics: When Effort Meets Resistance and volume dynamics. For instance, there are moments when stocks rise with high volume, yet the price barely moves. This phenomenon can be a critical signal for traders, reflecting the market's internal mechanics.
In general, there are four key states to observe in the relationship between price and volume:
High Volume, Low Price Movement – A potential sign of resistance or distribution.
Low Volume, High Price Movement – Indicates lack of conviction or speculative activity.
High Volume, High Price Movement – Suggests strength or accumulation.
Low Volume, Low Price Movement – Reflects consolidation or market indecision.
These dynamics highlight the importance of not just looking at price charts, but truly understanding the story they tell. Sometimes, the market signals "buy" during peak momentum, but soon after, prices find their way downward effortlessly, leaving behind effort without result—a classic sign of exhaustion or distribution phases.
Take NVIDIA as an example. While I currently avoid trading it due to its strong fundamental standing and lack of immediate alternatives, sometime fools can become smart when it's punpy ride. the chart itself reveals fascinating patterns. These patterns often follow the laws of physics—momentum, inertia, and resistance—all playing out visually in the markets.
Remember, this is not trading advice but an invitation to explore how combining technical and fundamental analysis can provide deeper insights into market behavior. Every trader should develop their own system and evaluate risk accordingly.
i don't know if it will go up or down, but as i see from the behavior of the price i can only guess :) let's find out
NVDA in H&S & falling wedge patterns, and potential ST supportsNASDAQ:NVDA Swing Trading
Bearish short-term (no position) but bullish medium-long term.
Current Patterns
First, we see the price crossing the neckline of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on daily chart. The target price is at 110$, but not sure we reach this level. A close below the neckline would strongly confirm the bearish move with good volume. This is a good setup for short selling investors.
Additionally, there is a falling wedge forming (as shown in the chart), which is a potential bullish reversal pattern once it breaks up. This will be interesting to watch.
If the downtrend continues, the 20MA crossing below the 50MA on the daily chart, known as a death cross , would be a strong bearish signal. This indicates that the price is likely to face further downward pressure, as it reflects weakening short-term momentum compared to the longer-term trend. Historically, a death cross is associated with the beginning of sustained declines in price.To confirm this, watch for the daily close to solidify the crossover and be alert for other bearish indicators like the RSI and MACD showing continued weakness.
Strong support levels are found at $130, which acted as resistance in August, and the 100-day moving average (MA) on the daily timeframe at $127.90.
What I am watching for the next bull run
Volume has shown a slight increase, surpassing the 20-day moving average (MA) of volume yesterday, indicating growing interest. Today's close will be key to confirming the validity of the H&S pattern. Momentum indicators are bearish , with RSI under 39 and MACD in the red. However, I remain bullish on the short- and medium-term, so I’m watching for strong support levels and a potential reversal signal (RSI up, MACD green) with a solid bull volume.
What's crucial now is patience—I won’t enter when signals are bearish, and the next bullish setup isn't in place yet.
www.tradingview.com
NVIDIA Update: Big Levels to WatchHere’s the deal with NVDA right now:
1)If it keeps dropping, we’re looking at a move down to $130–$127.
2)But if it can break above $139, we could see it climb to $145 or higher.
It all comes down to whether $139 holds strong or if the price slips lower. Just keep an eye on those levels and let the market do its thing!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
New Setup: NVDANVDA : I have a swing trade setup signal. I'm looking to enter long if the stock can manage to CLOSE above the last candle high(BUY). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below (SL) and a price target above it(TP-50%,move SL to breakeven), then using the close below the 10SMA as my trailing stop loss.
Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level(3).
NVDA ANALYSIS NVDA has gained support at the monthly level of $123.54, indicating a potential pullback from this level. On the weekly chart, support was lost at $139.50, while the daily chart shows a loss of support at $135.07. NVDA appears to be undergoing a monthly pullback toward $123.54, with a possibility of testing the daily gained level at $121.77.
$NVDA - Potential head and shoulderNASDAQ:NVDA hits target 4 precisely and has since pulled back. It is currently trading around the support region.
There is a potential head and shoulders pattern forming with the neckline around the $132 to $130 area. A full measured move upon neckline breakdown is $117. The midway support is $126.
Bear in mind, just because a pattern is forming doesn't mean it will validate.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
NVIDIA Corp(Extended Hours) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# NVIDIA Corp(Extended Hours)
- Double Formation
* 147.50 USD | Swing High | Subdivision 1
* Left, Head(Swing Low) & Right | Pattern Confirmation
- Triple Formation
* Retracement | Not Numbered | 50% At 123.00 USD
* Flat ABC | Continuation Bias | Subdivision 2
* 345 Template Area | Depiction Range | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
Trading Journalpost earnings, the sellers volume has increased.
Will revisit in future but right now trying to keep the gains
Looking tired at this point and needs to reset itself
Fibonacci Trend Trading Strategy for NVIDIA (NVDA)Objective:
To capitalize on the momentum following a breakout or breakdown from key Fibonacci levels, particularly focusing on the 0.764 level which NVDA has recently broken down from.
Strategy Outline:
Setup:
Timeframe: Daily chart for broader trend analysis.
Indicators: Fibonacci retracement levels (0, 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.764, 1.0).
Lookback Period: 90 days for calculating Fibonacci levels.
Entry Conditions:
Long Position:
Enter when the price crosses above the 0.236 Fibonacci level after a recent dip below 0.764, indicating a potential reversal or strong bullish momentum.
Short Position:
Enter when the price breaks below the 0.764 level, as seen in your chart, signaling a strong bearish trend or continuation of the downtrend.
Exit Conditions:
Long Exit:
Exit if the price breaks below the 0 level or shows signs of reversing back below the 0.236 level.
Short Exit:
Exit if the price breaks above the 1.0 level or shows signs of reversing back above the 0.764 level.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss:
For longs, place a stop loss just below the 0.236 level.
For shorts, place a stop loss just above the 0.764 level.
Position Sizing:
Adjust based on your risk tolerance, but typically, risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital per trade.
Additional Confirmation:
Use RSI (Relative Strength Index) for confirmation:
For longs, ensure RSI is not in the overbought territory (>70).
For shorts, ensure RSI is not in the oversold territory (<30).
Trade Execution:
Long:
Execute buy order when the price closes above the 0.236 level with a confirmed upward trend.
Short:
Execute sell order when the price closes below the 0.764 level, confirming the bearish trend.
Monitoring:
Regularly monitor the positions for any unexpected news or volume spikes which could affect the stock's movement outside of the technical setup.
Strategy Rationale:
The Fibonacci levels provide clear support and resistance zones which are crucial for trend analysis.
Breaking below a significant level like 0.764 often indicates a strong bearish sentiment, while bouncing back from such levels could signal a bullish reversal.
Using RSI helps in avoiding false breakouts or breakdowns by ensuring the market isn't already overbought or oversold.
This strategy leverages both technical analysis and risk management to trade NVIDIA based on its recent price action against Fibonacci levels, aiming for high probability setups with defined risk parameters.
Nvidia Forming Support For Move To $237That's it, Nvidia is forming obvious support at $140. The stage is set for the move up to $237.
Good Luck!
NVIDIA - Last stage of bull run In my previous post about NVIDIA couple of months back, I presented the Livermore Speculative chart, which illustrates how NVIDIA is poised for a parabolic move. After a consolidation period of 1-2 months, the upward momentum is about to begin.
I've also provided a long-term perspective on NVIDIA, indicating that we are on the verge of completing a significant wave. Based on the time cycle, I anticipate this will conclude between February and March 2025, with the upper end of the parallel channel projected to be in the range of 260-300. Please refer to the time cycles shown at the bottom of the chart. Following this period, we may enter a substantial correction that could last for several years.
If you find this idea valuable, please share and boost this idea ! :)
Potential pull-back on the biggest stock in the world? Careful with a potential pull-back at the top of the range. Bearish butterfly harmonic pattern is forming with bearish divergence double top on the RSI. If NASDAQ:NVDA were to go down, we could potentially see its price perform badly after earnings, which could be near the pattern completion zone.
Nvidia H4 entry Hi traders I decided to share quick possible entry for nvidia,however i didn't share it from the start cz of some reasons,however you are not late to take calculated risk from the zone,note that trading is risky you might loose all your capitals.
Happy Friday (pre-market look.) Vote if you buying the dip! Strong resistance at 146.50 and Support is built at 144. Stay tuned to market’s opening for trend of the day. Will NVDA continue its weekly rise? Or will we retest support at $142.25?
NVDA Ascending Channel Insights: Key Scalping & Swing ZoneNVDA continues its bullish march within a clear ascending channel. The price action presents excellent opportunities for scalping short-term volatility and swing trading the broader trend. With key support and resistance levels, alongside MACD divergence, here's a comprehensive analysis and trading game plan.
Market Structure Overview:
* Trend: NVDA is trading within an ascending channel, suggesting bullish momentum. However, the price is approaching resistance near $148-$150.
* Current Price Action: The last few candles show a slowing upward momentum, signaling potential consolidation or pullback.
* Key Levels:
* Resistance Zones: $148.55 (short-term), $152.89 (channel top and major resistance).
* Support Zones: $137.77 (critical swing low), $131.89 (channel bottom and potential bounce area).
Liquidity & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zones: Significant liquidity sits below $137.77, which could attract a stop hunt before a reversal.
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish OB: Around $137.77-$139, aligning with the last strong bullish breakout.
* Bearish OB: Near $148-$150, likely to act as a supply zone.
MACD & Volume Analysis:
* MACD: Shows a bearish divergence—momentum weakening while price trends higher. Watch for a cross below the signal line for confirmation of a pullback.
* Volume: Declining on recent upward moves, which may indicate waning bullish strength.
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry: Look for short scalps near $148-$150, especially if a rejection forms with bearish candles and MACD confirmation.
* Exit: Target $145-$144 for quick profits, with a tight stop-loss above $150.
* Stop-Loss: $150.50 to minimize risk in case of a breakout.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Play: Wait for a pullback into the $137.77-$139 support zone. Enter long if bullish confirmation (e.g., hammer or engulfing candle) appears.
* Bearish Play: If price fails to break $150 and confirms a lower high, consider shorting with targets at $137.77.
* Stop-Loss: For longs, set at $137. For shorts, above $150.
Game Plan:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Mark key levels: $150 (resistance), $137.77 (support), and channel edges.
* Check for news or macro events affecting tech stocks.
2. At Market Open:
* Monitor initial price action for rejection or breakout near $148-$150.
* Look for high-volume moves to confirm trend direction.
3. Mid-Day Play:
* If price consolidates near the channel's midline, avoid overtrading.
* Focus on reacting to breakout or pullback scenarios.
4. EOD Exit:
* Close all scalping positions by the day's end to avoid overnight risk.
Likely Direction:
* Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $150 could push NVDA towards $152.89 or higher, aligning with the channel top.
* Bearish Scenario: Failure to sustain above $148 may lead to a retracement towards $137.77 for liquidity.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and trade responsibly.
Watching For a Bullish ContinuationHello Traders!
I'm almost interested in the long with Nvidia. I like the bullish sentiment, and patterns it's creating to give a nice swing set up. My main target is to fill that big wick on Nov. 21st at 150.00. Right now as it's pulling back, I'd like to see it hit an area around 144.00-143.00. If price can take the sell stops, and reverse off that area, then I'll consider calls to 150.00.
Watching closely! 👩🏼💻
*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
NVDA BUY POINT & SELLING POINTBuy Point and Sell Point to look over
Since the daily chart shows bearish momentum, there is a risk that the price may continue to move down or stay weak in the short-term. This means that if you enter the trade now, you could face a pullback before the uptrend resumes, which could reduce the value of your call option initially.
NVDIA Channel Up ready to explode in 2025 for a $350 target.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has started the week on a bullish 1W candle, following last week's reversal pattern. Technically that reversal is being formed exactly at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
This 2-year pattern is technically very similar to the Channel Up that started on the weekly bottom of December 24 2018. The similarities between the two patterns are striking. As you can see both started after an oversold 1W RSI (<30.00) touch, which then formed Higher Lows, making the price rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then, using the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support, the 2019 - 2021 Channel Up expanded all the way to the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, until the eventual break below the 1W MA50 and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Observe also how similar their 1W RSI sequences are. Right now it appears that we are after a technical pull-back similar to May 10 2021. The 1W MA50 is supporting and the 1W RSI (which has already made a Double Bottom rebound (green circles)) is bouncing off its MA (yellow trend-line) and looking for a break-out above the (dotted) Channel Down.
We have already set two Targets ($190 and $240) for on NVDIA on our previous analysis, but this time we move a little further, making a projection for the end of this Cycle. And the final Target is $350, exactly on the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, the level that formed the November 22 2021 Top.
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NVDA on the Rise: Key Levels, Trading Strategy for Dec. 5Trading Plan for NVDA
Technical Analysis & Price Action:
* Current Trend: NVDA is trading within an ascending channel, indicating a short-term uptrend. The price is approaching a key resistance zone near $146, while maintaining support at $140.
* Support Levels: Immediate support at $140.34 and stronger support at $137.83.
* Resistance Levels: Current resistance at $145.79. A breakout above $146 could test $150.
* Liquidity Zone: The $140-$142 zone shows significant buying interest, evident by the volume spike and price rejection from lower levels.
Order Block Insights:
* A bullish order block is identified around $140-$141, where large buying volumes emerged, pushing the price higher. This zone could serve as a re-entry point if the price pulls back.
Scalping Gameplan:
1. Entry for Scalping:
* Buy above $145.80 for a quick scalp targeting $146.50-$147.
* Look for a pullback to $140-$141 and enter on bullish confirmation for a tight stop-loss setup.
2. Stop Loss: Place stop-loss slightly below $139.50 to manage risk.
3. Exit Targets: For scalping, take profit near $146.50-$147 and adjust based on momentum.
Swing Trade Strategy:
* Bullish Outlook: Enter above $146 on a confirmed breakout for a swing trade targeting $150-$152. Set stop-loss below $140 for risk management.
* Bearish Outlook: If the price fails to hold $140, a short trade could target $137.80, with stop-loss above $142.
Suggestions & Projections:
* NVDA is exhibiting bullish momentum, but the overextended MACD hints at a potential pullback. Watch for volume confirmation near resistance before entering.
* For scalping, stick to tight levels and monitor volatility. Swing traders can wait for a breakout above $146 or a retest of $140 for optimal entries.
Thoughts:
* NVDA is showing strength, supported by robust volume, but caution is advised as the stock nears resistance. A breakout could attract fresh buyers, pushing the stock higher.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and trade responsibly.
