NFLX respecting weekly resistanceLooking at more consolidation in NASDAQ:NFLX and a possible formation of H&S to trigger a pullback to 350s then taking legs to push higher.
MACD showing bearish divergence in daily too.
NFLX trade ideas
NFLX setting up Fib retracement level bounce LONGNFLX up trended starting June 1st through an upper long term anchored VWAP
to the next higher VWAP line coinciding with earnings. NFLX dropped after
good earnings probably because investors expected even better. On the 30
minute chart, NFLX has more or less completed a 45-55% retracement of that
trend up and is now sitting on the VWAP line that it crossed back in early June.
Volumes are decent above their moving average. The zero-lag shows a line
cross under the histogram which just converted to positive. I analyze this as
suitable for a long entry targeting that higher VWAP band line at 495 with
a stop loss at 415, the recent pivot low. I will take both a stock trade of
10 shares and a call option striking 475 expiring 8/18 NFLX calls have treated
Nancy and Paul Pelosi quite well for a long period and I have enjoyed smaller profits
from smaller positions in the same time frame . This looks like another opportunity.
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching KnivesNetflix is that $200 billion company trading at $441.44 that everyone seem to have forgot about, even though it more than doubled in a year.
Personally, I think these streaming services are a colossal waste of your time and money. What you're watching is the intellectual equivalent of a Big Mac or a bag of potato chips, and permeated with the things of socialism and atheism.
And Netflix is really quite woke and some of the content is unforgivably degenerate.
You shouldn't look at warped mirrors and shouldn't cast your eyes on ugly things, or they'll twist your heart and your soul.
When it comes to the markets-at-large, I believe we're definitely going to see a correction, rather than a new all time high, which I detail in the two calls below:
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
If there's to be a new all time high, let's wait and see what Q4 has in store for us.
There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets right now. The War between the Russian Federation and NATO via Ukraine is a big one, and a bigger one is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.
More or less, I believe the globalists want to topple the Party to have their men from Taiwan go in and take control of China and depose Xi.
But I believe Xi is likely to topple the Party himself before that can happen.
Big gaps will come that day and things will be very hard because Wall Street won't be in any kind of a risk-on mood.
The 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai toad faction is something Xi can weaponize to implicate the entire world.
Because to do business in Shanghai you've needed the Jiang Faction's approval. To get its approval, you've had to dirty your hands in the persecution and swear vows to the Flag of Blood.
And unfortunately, most of the world has wanted what the Party has. Read the story of British billionaire Neil Heywood, who decided to court Jiang's minion Bo Xilai.
Bo told Heywood that to prove his loyalty he had to divorce his wife. Heywood refused, and so Bo's wife poisoned him.
Heywood died in 2011.
Bo Xilai was ruined in Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign in 2013, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison in a CCP dungeon.
Gambling with the Party is one foot in the grave and the other in prison. Live a virtuous life instead.
Moreover, they always say zoom out. Looking at Netflix on the yearly, it's hard to say you're not in the crosshairs of a savage trend reversal.
And you can see these daily bars far more clearly on the weekly chart:
There might be that fat gap above that you have your eye on, but you're dealing with a very long and very steep ramp in the first place, and this is in a stock which stayed away from a true gap between April and August of '22.
Another notable factor is that the FINRA short volume for Netflix, while still notably low, is the highest it's been in three months and posted its first green month since April and only its second of '23.
Short volume
This is quite notable in light of the fact that June was one of the best months for equities in a long time
Netflix doesn't have an ETF, except for a 3x levered ETF on the Mexico exchange. Insignificant except for it fell from 5 pesos to 5 pennies.
What's sad is even if it Netflix was to fall 50% in value the thing would still only be worth like 30 cents. % base levered ETFs will kill you.
So, here's the call.
Netflix printed a proper daily pivot in mid June (you'll have to look yourself because I can't zoom the chart in for the post) and has been flirting inside that range ever since.
If she makes a new high I suppose then it's time for more uppy and you can buy calls at the top and feel pretty good.
But if she breaks the $420 range the next area to watch is the June low, which Netflix printed on a green candle and on the first day of the month at $393
After that, things might happen and happen fast.
If bearish momentum and level breaking manifests, then where I believe it will return to is the $180 to $160 range.
For Netflix to have a chance to return above $500, it will have to hold the $162.71 bottom.
If you can catch that falling knife you'll feel pretty smart if you can hold the bag for a few months.
But if you try to go long before the bottom you'll cut your hands and cut your hands some more.
Short-term top of NFLX has already appearedShort-term top of NFLX has already appeared
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Netflix's stock over the past year. The graph overlays the recent bottom-up golden section. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of Netflix's stock is exactly 3.618 on the golden section in the figure! The weekly pattern of Naifei stock last week showed a very long up shadow, indicating that the short-term top has already appeared, and the probability of maintaining a relatively high level of major volatility consolidation in the future is likely to be maintained!
NFLX is rising from supportNFLX on the 2H chart is rising with the shortest EMA rounding up . Price is now above the
POC line of the volume profile showing buying pressure has extinguished bearish momentum.
The RSI indicator shows RSI to have trended down into oversold territory. Fundamentally,
NFLX revenues have increased with the household password crackdown. Traders and investors
have noted that. I see NFLX as setup for a long entry. I will determine the best entry on
a lower time frame either 5 or 15 minutes. I see targets as 485 and 560 based on horizontal
resistances on the 4H and daily charts and so a good potential reward compared with the
risk of a stop loss at 416 set below the POC.
Netflix Long will move and reach Target 1 is 1200$,before....New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case).
Bullish:
higher highs higher lows
poc uprising
volume increasing
capital flow rising
In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend.
I will only take profit 10% of the microsoft portfolio and let the profit run.
Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal
The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run.
This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
$NFLX with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NASDAQ:NFLX after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 87.5%.
Netflix: Sizing Up Levels After EarningsNetflix rallied into quarterly results last week, only to fall on weak revenue. Today’s chart considers some potential points for dip-buyers looking to add the streaming giant.
First you have the rally that began on May 18 after strong demand for its ads in an “upfront presentation” to Madison Avenue. Retracing half the move would bring the shares back to roughly $412.50.
Next, that level is near the low on June 27. Traders may look for that price area to be retested as support.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is rising into the same zone.
Combined, those three points could represent triple convergence.
Stochastics are also oversold. That isn’t bullish per se, but it may attract dip buyers given NFLX’s recent surge.
Finally, you have tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting. Stocks often freeze before such events and then swing sharply. Will such volatility bring prices back toward $413 zone, followed by continuation to the upside?
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NFLX bull trap before more downside.Since revenue missed on earnings report. I would like it to retest its former support at $431 to confirm it as a resistance before going lower to fill the bottom gap at $422.89-420.88.
NFLX ANALYSISAfter the filling and rejection of the gap left by the market in the bullish trend we will see a reversal to fill the gap of the dump of the price
- ''GAP'' is a better trading opportunity take advantage of it
- Trading is probality control you risk management
Good Luck !
NFLXSpeculative short term trading opportunity. Following it's post-earnings decline, the share is approaching a gap fill from the Wednesday 28 June advance. Simultaneously, the share is outside of the lower boundary of it's rising 2SD 50 day linear regression trend channel, support the potential for an 'oversold' rebound. Do note that the US Federal Reserve is due to decide on interest rates this week thus the scope for wider ranges and high volatility remains. Time Stop: 07 September 2023. As always, short term/active traders can consider the following upon a subsequently rise in share price: (1) Raise their stop-loss to protect capital (2) Scale out of the position as it approaches the target. (3) Bank/Take Profit in full (and possibly get back in if it retraces).
NFLX AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, taking out the clean highs at 458.48 before giving us a 12.74% move to the downside. With the current bearish momentum, we should be looking at price potentially heading down to the bullish POI at 375.87 next.
Can NFLX rebound from the down turn after earnings?NFLX started a good trend up about June 25 and then pulled back in the day after the
earnings report. Although the earnings beat expectations, price continued to drop in
a VWAP breakdown shown here on a 2 hr chart. Over the 2 days that followed, price
has continued down at a slower rate and candle ranges are diminished. Importantly,
the zero=lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram which has changed from
red /negative to green/positive. The lines have inflected upward. I see this as demonstrative
of bullish divergence and predictive of a reversal.
Overall, I see NFLX rebounding with a potential 15% upside. My target is 480 in consideration
of the swing high on July 18th with a stop loss of 415 the swing low of late June.
Keepit easy: NETFLIX long goes to 1156USDNetflix uses jump massively amid account sharing ban
Sentiment is cautiously bullish into the next US CPI figure, due tomorrow, and the next FOMC decision due Wednesday.
Investors are flocking into call options because no one wants to miss a further rally in stock markets, but no one is sure that the rally will continue given the fact that the Fed has hiked rates at a record speed since last year, leading to the failure of a couple of US regional banks on the way.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hike its interest rates by 25bp when it meets on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate at the negative territory despite the rising inflation.
Netflix’s share price could benefit from a mild fall in the US economy. The logic is based on stay-at-home dynamics and fading competitors in tougher economic conditions
The risk to this outlook is that unnecessary subscriptions are one of the first expenses that consumers are likely to cut back on. Netflix fell significantly in 2021, but there has been a decent bounce recently.
Netflix Stock Forecast By Month
Year Mo Min Max Close Total%
2023 Jul 432 511 482 9.55%
2023 Aug 476 536 506 15.00%
2023 Sep 499 563 531 20.68%
2023 Oct 525 591 558 26.82%
2023 Nov 534 602 568 29.09%
2023 Dec 560 632 596 35.45%
2024 Jan 583 657 620 40.91%
2024 Feb 612 690 651 47.95%
2024 Mar 625 705 665 51.14%
2024 Apr 656 740 698 58.64%
2024 May 689 777 733 66.59%
2024 Jun 705 795 750 70.45%
2024 Jul 717 809 763 73.41%
2024 Aug 753 849 801 82.05%
2024 Sep 768 866 817 85.68%
2024 Oct 778 878 828 88.18%
2024 Nov 817 921 869 97.50%
2024 Dec 825 931 878 99.55%
2025 Jan 864 974 919 108.86%
2025 Feb 907 1023 965 119.32%
2025 Mar 914 1030 972 120.91%
2025 Apr 939 1059 999 127.05%
2025 May 986 1112 1049 138.41%
2025 Jun 1035 1167 1101 150.23%
2025 Jul 1087 1225 1156 162.73%
Impact of Netflix Subscription Increase on Stock PriceFirstly, let's acknowledge that as a leading global streaming platform, Netflix has experienced tremendous growth and success over the years. However, the recent announcement of a subscription price increase raises concerns about the company's future profitability and market dynamics.
While the subscription increase may seem logical to counter rising content production costs and maintain profitability, it is essential to consider the potential consequences. Historically, price hikes have been met with mixed reactions from subscribers. In some cases, these increases have resulted in customer churn as consumers seek alternative, more affordable streaming options.
Given the intensely competitive nature of the streaming industry, with established players like Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and Disney+, it is essential to assess the potential impact on Netflix's subscriber growth. A possible slowdown in subscriber acquisition or an increase in customer churn could negatively impact the company's revenue and, consequently, its stock price.
Therefore, please exercise caution and consider holding off on buying Netflix shares until we have more clarity on the market's response to the subscription increase. Monitoring key metrics such as subscriber growth, churn rate, and competitive positioning will be crucial in making informed investment decisions.
As investors, it is our responsibility to assess risks and opportunities objectively. While Netflix remains a dominant player in the streaming industry, the potential repercussions of its subscription increase must be noticed. By adopting a wait-and-see approach, we can better evaluate the long-term implications on the company's financial performance and stock price.
In conclusion, I encourage you to exercise caution and closely monitor the developments surrounding Netflix's subscription increase. Holding off on buying Netflix shares until we have more visibility on its impact will allow us to make more informed investment decisions.
NFLX breaks major trend resistance ahead of ER tomorrow 🔥boost and follow for more ER charts/analysis and to show support 💛
first 2 breakouts past this trend were fake outs, today we are seeing the 3rd break but I think if we have good earnings tomorrow this breakout will be very explosive unlike the other two..
Price target for this week is 500-550 with good earnings.. lets see what happens. good luck🔭
Technical and digital analysisWe notice that it is in an upward trend and there is an increase in the buying momentum
Concerns about Netflix's Future Subscription GrowthOver the past few years, Netflix has undoubtedly revolutionized how we consume entertainment. Its vast library of content and the convenience of on-demand streaming have attracted millions of subscribers worldwide. However, recent trends and market indicators raise questions about the sustainability of Netflix's exponential growth.
Firstly, the streaming landscape has become increasingly competitive. With the emergence of new players such as Disney+, Apple TV+, and Amazon Prime Video, the market has become saturated, leading to a fragmented audience. This intense competition poses a significant challenge for Netflix, as it struggles to retain its subscriber base while attracting new ones.
Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has temporarily boosted Netflix's subscriber numbers due to lockdown measures and increased demand for home entertainment. However, as the world gradually returns to normalcy, we cannot ignore the possibility of a decline in Netflix's subscriber growth. The return of outdoor activities, cinemas reopening, and live events resumption may divert consumer attention away from streaming platforms, affecting Netflix's long-term growth potential.
Additionally, the rising cost of content production and licensing rights is a significant financial burden for Netflix. While the company has successfully created original content, the competition for exclusive rights to popular shows and movies has become increasingly fierce, leading to soaring expenses. This escalating cost may hinder Netflix's ability to invest in new content and maintain its competitive edge in the long run.
Considering these concerns, I urge you to pause and reevaluate any long-term investment plans for Netflix. It is essential to assess the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory amidst fierce competition, changing consumer preferences, and mounting financial pressures.
Concerns about Netflix's Future Subscription Growth - A Call to Pause Long-term Investment
As traders, we make informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. I encourage you to explore alternative investment opportunities within the streaming industry or diversify your portfolio to mitigate potential risks associated with Netflix's uncertain future.
In conclusion, the future subscription growth of Netflix remains uncertain, given the intensifying competition, shifting consumer habits, and mounting financial challenges. It is crucial to exercise caution and carefully assess the risks before making any long-term investment commitments.
#NFLX Trading A Wave 4 PullbackIN this update we review the recent price action in Netflix and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
•Past performance not indicative of future results
NFLX ANALYSIS: NETFLIX ENDING BULL SEASON?In mid-October 2022, the NFLX share price was about $250; in those days we wrote the post “Is Netflix starting a new bull season?”. Since then, the NFLX stock has more than doubled in price. But after the publication of yesterday's news, everything has changed, hence the headline.
The company added nearly 6 million subscribers in the quarter, with a forecast of 1.9 million. As of the end of June, Netflix had 238.4 million subscribers worldwide. This is positive news.
Some negative news: the decline in revenue. While 8.3bn was expected, the actual number is 8.1bn. “While we have made steady progress this year, we still have a lot of work to do to accelerate our growth again,” the company said in a quarterly letter to shareholders.
However, the most serious argument lies in the behavior of the price on the NFLX chart.
On the eve of the earnings report, we witnessed an increase in the price on rumors of an increase in subscribers. The price of NFLX was close to USD 500, but fell almost 9% post-market after the news. So today the trading session is likely to open below USD 440 per share. This abrupt change in market behavior provides an argument to suggest that the months-long rally has reached a culminating phase. A surge in volatility will help large stockholders take profits — perhaps they see Netflix's difficulties with the strike of actors and authors, increased competition, restrictions on the prospects for further growth.
The median line of the rising channel is now seen as the nearest support, the breakdown of which will confirm the change in market sentiment.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NFLX ready for $500?It was trading nicely in this wedge formation but it broke out before earnings. I was hoping it would trade inside until earnings but I guess it wanted to start filling in the gap it had. Still has room to fill up all the way to $507.57. Good earnings report with huge subscriber count could push it to fill the gap. If it reports lower subscriber count then we could see a huge drop maybe back to $430 range.
$NFLX approaching a topI do think there is likely a small move higher coming next week prior to topping. I'm looking for one last push higher into $457, at which time I think is a good time to go short, because after that, the move down should be a big one.
Most likely scenario IMO is that we break the previously lows in the $170ish range and form new lows down between $139-$111 before bottoming.
All of this should play out within the next 6-9 months.
Let's see what happens.
