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Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 10 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None, but tomorrow is CPI News - None Directional bias - BUY. The M TF is very bullish and until there is a reversal pattern eg. DT on a high TF (like the D TF at least), I continue to hold my buy bias. Morning analysis: M TF - very bullish D TF - Price is right at the neckline area (marked in green) at time of writing this morning. If candles start closing below neckline towards the mushroom, Nas will turn bearish, because then a day DT has formed with the neckline broken down (change the D TF chart to a line chart and it will be easily visible). D fib retracement levels were broken down yesterday, in other words bulls were not able to overcome the bears at these levels and bears push down past these levels. Now only W retracement levels remaining. W 0.382 fib level is 2800 pips down (at time of writing in the morning). Bulls last defense against the bears is the D neckline (marked in green) and a strong D support level, exactly at the D neckline. So this is the level were bulls will have to step in if they do today. 4H TF - Shrinking red candles at C. indicate a loss of bearish momentum. Hoping that bulls will push up from the green support / neckline. Drawn in the SELL fib levels because these will be key take profit levels. Sell fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A. As the day progressed: As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern formed on the 1H TF, as marked by the thick pink lines. Entered a buy at the hand icon, when price broke upwards on the 15min TF - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - Falling wedge pattern formed on 1H TF, right above key support. Pattern broken upwards, indicating that price is ready to move upwards 2. S&R - Green line represents D Neckline and key D support area. On the 1H TF, price is reacting to the 100 EMA, indicating that the torquiose EMA line is acting as dynamic support. 3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish trend of Nasdaq. Also the temporary downtrend line (the top pink line of the market pattern) is broken, indicating that price is ready to move upwards 4. Fib - None 5. Candlesticks - Shrinking candles on the 4H, indicating loss of bearish momentum Mental SL placed at the thick pink line. I was willing to risk more today because it might have come down one last time to test the green line, this was purely based on my feeling, which luckily turned out not be true. Luckily I had zero draw down and price shot up. I took partial profits at the top hand icon (because that was TP2 on the buy fib (as drawn) and then closed almost all the rest of my position at the blue arrow (when a strong DT started forming on the 15min TF). I left a runner open, just in case I could possibly benefit from a push up at CPI tomorrow, but this was taken out at entry ultimately. Majority of my profits was about 1000 pips. Stats: The total bullish move for the day was +- 1575 pips: I captured 63% of the total move (I'm happy with that). Amazing to see how price reacted to the sell fibs today. Fib levels are real baby! P.S. A note from yesterday's trading....I took a loss of 800 pips yesterday (I tried twice and hit SL twice). I was pretty bummed about it and didn't post :( Won't be trading CPI tomorrow, because I feel I cant stack the probabilities in my favour! See ya Monday! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H) Trade Logic: - Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe. Confluence Factors: - Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs. - Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade. - Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management. - Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone. - Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum. - Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends. Additional Consideration: While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. In recent days, financial markets have experienced a notable influx of capital. According to a report by Bank of America, capital flows amounted to $8.2 billion into equities, $4.9 billion into bonds, and $3.0 billion into cryptocurrencies. This marks the largest four-week inflow into cryptocurrencies, totaling $11.0 billion. Capital inflows into U.S. equities continued for the ninth consecutive week, totaling $8.2 billion. Additionally, a $4.6 billion investment in small-cap U.S. stocks pushed the 2024 inflows to record highs. Over the 12 months ending in November, an average of 186,000 new jobs were created each month. On a monthly basis, the highest job growth was observed in healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. Employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector also saw a boost following the resolution of labor strikes. Recent economic data continues to highlight contractionary pressures and their effects on the U.S. economy. At first glance, November’s NFP employment report indicates a resilient and strong labor market, with the U.S. economy adding approximately 227,000 jobs. This growth was largely due to the recovery of jobs lost to recent hurricanes in the Southeast and the resolution of Boeing labor strikes, both of which had reduced employment figures in October. The October report was also revised upward to 36,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while labor force participation declined. Despite this, unemployment remains relatively low, though it may rise in the coming months if contractionary pressures persist. This week, major events in global central bank policies are expected to take place. Dubbed by some as the “central banks’ decisive week,” it begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. Key U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policies. Investors are primarily focused on inflation data. The November CPI report is set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the PPI report on Thursday. These figures will serve as a precursor to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Projections indicate that annual CPI may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. If no stronger-than-expected data emerges, the Federal Reserve is likely to lean toward reducing interest rates, with the possibility of halting monetary easing in the January meeting. The December 2024 global economic outlook report by Fitch highlights rising inflation risks in the U.S., driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending, upcoming tariff increases that raise import prices, and slowed labor force growth due to reduced net migration. Fitch forecasts that global growth will decline to 2.6% in 2025, a figure largely unchanged from its September report. However, this global stability masks significant shifts in the economic growth forecasts of major countries. U.S. economic growth for 2025 has been revised up by 0.5% to 2.1%, while the Eurozone’s growth forecast has been reduced by 0.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 0.2% to 4.3%. The persistent inflationary trends observed in recent months are unlikely to change significantly with the November CPI report. The CPI data, due on Wednesday, is one of the final and most important indicators ahead of the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting. It may influence FOMC members’ decisions on whether to reduce or halt interest rate cuts. Currently, there is a strong probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, stated in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has no plans to request the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that he does not intend to replace Powell and will continue to work with him. In recent years, financial and tech markets have witnessed remarkable shifts. One such change is the shift in focus from semiconductor companies to AI-related software firms. After a significant rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, market enthusiasm has now shifted toward software companies such as Snowflake and Palantir. This reflects a growing realization that AI’s true potential lies in its applications across industries, rather than solely in the hardware enabling it. Semiconductor firms were the initial beneficiaries of this AI boom, but the market is now gravitating toward companies implementing AI in practical and operational ways.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ, setup for 25k (20% potential)Hello everyone, based on the major wave 3, we can make a projection to imagine where the global markets could form a major top. In my view we are entering the last stages of the bull run, with a potential of 20% gains to come. After reaching the top, a major bear market could start, but I don't expect the top to be in before at least Q1 of 2025. What I also want to point out is that we are about to test the very significant last swing high from where wave 4 started. I should be a good zone to start buying again, as we are in a strong bullish trend. If you need confirmation observe this level closely.
FPMARKETS:US100Long
by Kyrean
USNAS100 / New ATH Historical Price, and Still To 21590Technical Analysis The price has successfully reached a historic all-time high (ATH) at 21500 and continues to gain momentum, targeting the next resistance at 21,590, and then it's possible to trade with a bearish trend after 21590. So now any stability above 21485 will get the price toward 21590, and then should break the resistance zone to get 21900, Otherwise, stability below 21450 by closing the 4h candle under it, means will drop to get 21290 and 21220 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 21480 Resistance Levels: 21590, 21670, 21800 Support Levels: 21290, 21150, 20990 previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
NAS 100 BUY OPPRTUNITIES CAN BE GRABBED!! DESCRIPTION Trade is analysed in line with the overall swing of the market structure . Atm we can see the price has dropped down to strong area of demand on 4hr. ( a strong demand zone we can confirm as with the strong wick rejection seen on the earlier candles . ) Price has also shown a change of character on 4hr by breaking the fractal structure and giving us a idea on possible future entries . As of now i am awaiting the price to drop further on 1hr demand zone and if does reach there we could look for possible entries on coming days for buy . Trend analysis MArket Structure Supply and demand Liquidity Premium n discount.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by rubinGrg
[Education] Your Results Have Nothing To Do With StrategiesHave you ever wondered why some trades feel different than others? You're following the same strategy, looking at the same patterns, but something just feels... off. Last week, I received a message from a trader who was convinced that his strategy wasn't working. He had back-tested it extensively with 300 data points, showing a 45% win rate with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Statistically, he should have been profitable. Yet after three months of live trading, his account was down 28%. What he and what most traders didn’t realize and never consider is that his problem wasn't his strategy. It was something far more dangerous. The Hidden Force Destroying Your Trading Account Think about your last losing trade. Be honest with yourself: - Did you move your stop loss because you "felt" the market would reverse? - Did you enter early because you were afraid of missing the move? - Did you close a winning trade too soon because you couldn't handle seeing profits disappear? If you answered yes to any of these, congratulations - you've just discovered why most traders fail, and it has nothing to do with your strategy. The Expensive Truth About Trading Psychology When I first started trading, I lost over $20,000. It’s not because my analysis was wrong. I just couldn't control my emotions. Here's what would happen. I'd spot a perfect setup according to my plan. I’ll enter the trade. I’d sit right in front of my computer and watch every tick of price movement. I panic when the trade went against me which resulted in me to either cut winners short or let losers run. Sound familiar? You might be making these same mistakes without even realizing it. Why Your Brain Is Working Against You Here's what nobody tells you about trading. Your brain is literally wired to make you fail. When you see your account going into drawdown: - Your heart rate increases - Stress hormones flood your body - Your prefrontal cortex (logical thinking) shuts down - Your amygdala (emotional center) takes over This is the same response your ancestors had when facing a lion. Great for survival, terrible for trading. The Four Emotional Traps Every Trader Falls Into 1. Fear of Loss - Moving stop losses - Cutting winners short - Not taking valid setups 2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) - Entering without confirmation - Chasing price - Taking sub-par setups 3. Revenge Trading - Doubling down after losses - Trading bigger size to "make it back" - Taking trades outside your plan 4. Overconfidence - Increasing position size after wins - Ignoring risk management - Breaking rules because "you feel it" All these results in reduced win rate and smaller profits due to increased losses from poor entries, potentially wiping out weeks or months of profits. In serious cases, these may lead to blown accounts and destroyed confidence. The Math Behind Emotional Trading Let's say you have a strategy with: - 40% win rate - 1:2 risk-reward ratio - 1% risk per trade Mathematically, this strategy should make money. But emotions change everything: Without Emotions: - Winners: 40 trades × 2R = +80R - Losers: 60 trades × -1R = -60R - Net Result: +20R With Emotions: - Cut winners early: 40 trades × 1R = +40R - Let losers run: 60 trades × -1.5R = -90R - Net Result: -50R Same strategy, completely different results. Signs You're Trading Emotionally Even if you don’t realize it, there are signs that you’re trading emotionally. You need to journal down and be conscious about it. 1. Before the Trade - Feeling the pressure to trade - Unable to wait for perfect setups - Entering without proper analysis and confirmation 2. During the Trade - Constantly checking your P&L - Feeling anxiety about open positions - Unable to follow your trade plan and trade management 3. After the Trade - Feeling euphoric after wins - Feeling depressed after losses - Unable to stop thinking about trading The Solution: Building Your Trading Psychology Here's the framework I used to transform from an emotional wreck to a consistent trader: 1. Preparation Phase - Write down exact entry, stop loss, target, and your emotional state (Check out my FREE trading journal) - Calculate position size before entering - Take screenshots of your analysis - Review your rules checklist 2. Execution Phase - Set and forget your orders (if applicable) - No watching charts if not necessary - No checking P&L - No moving stop losses (unless it fits your trade management) 3. Review Phase - Journal every trade - Rate your emotional state - Track rule violations - Learn from mistakes Real Results From Managing Emotions My First Month Trading: - Started with $10,000 - Took 45 trades - Broke every rule in my plan - Ended down 40% After Implementing Emotional Control: - Managing $200,000 funded account - Taking 15-20 trades per month - Following rules strictly - Consistent 3-5% monthly returns By the way, I've passed another funded challenge this week using the lessons implemented here! Taking Action: Your First Steps 1. Start a Trading Journal - Record your emotions before each trade - Note any rules you break - Track the cost of emotional decisions 2. Create a Pre-Trade Checklist - Entry criteria - Risk management rules - Position sizing calculations - Market condition requirements 3. Build Better Habits - Trade smaller size while learning - Remove P&L display from charts - Set and forget your orders (If applicable) - Review trades only at set times The Path Forward Remember, everyone feels emotions while trading. The goal isn't to eliminate emotions. It's to prevent them from affecting your decisions. The market doesn't care how you feel. It doesn't care about your hopes, fears, or dreams. The only thing that matters is whether you can execute your strategy consistently, regardless of emotions. The choice is yours. Continue letting emotions control your trading, or learn to control your emotions.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Keeleytwj
2
All Time Highs on the Horizon!!!Price is on a Bullish Up trend In a Current Retracement. This Thesis uses several different concepts. Based off of Market structure, support & resistance, RSI Divergence, Fib lvl's, ICT Concepts, Daily: Bullish, Price is Rejecting Bullish TL and Testing structure , 61.8 prz (Daily Breaker Block forming) H4: Bullish, Morning star R Pattern at H4 lvl H1: Bearish (Wait for price action to return Bullish before entering) Thesis: Looking for price to bullish break H4 lvl to order block and retest back to daily lvl 20595 / previous structure high zone, for bullish entry. Notes: price has a overall retracement 61.8 prz Price rejecting off bullish Trend line Price rejecting 4H FVG H4 Hidden Bullish Divergence Daily Bullish Breaker Block Cons: -4H could be a Head and shoulders Pattern if price rejects and doesn't break through Daily lvl 20595 Wait for H1 Time frame and Execution time frames to line up with macro Bullish Trend before Executing! TP1: 21,150 TP2: 21,468 (ATH) TP3: 22,242 Stretch Goal (ATH)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by brianfj
29
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate