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Market Week in Review - 4/5/2021 - 4/9/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 5, 2021 Facts: +1.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94% (w/Gap), Body: +80% Good: Three positive days in a row, above 13,700 confirmed with a quick retest Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: About the same number of advancing as declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+1.44%), DJI (+1.13%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.35%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) and Communications (XLC +2.11%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only declining sector. Expectation: Higher The markets set new records on Monday led by gains from the largest public companies in Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Technology. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial marked new all-time highs with a bullish session that began the day with opening gap ups. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.67% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 94% includes the morning gap-up that led to an 80% green body. A minor fade in the afternoon created a slightly longer upper wick than the lower wick but the higher high and higher low continue a strong uptrend from last week's pivot. There were about the same number of gaining stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 7, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 44%, Body: +17% Good: Stayed near 13,700 support, lower volume, not a distribution day Bad: Indecisive candle, no signal on direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (-5.30%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways It was a choppy side-ways session today for most of the market. The small caps suffered compared to the larger caps while mid-cap growth stocks had mixed results. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious without many big reactions to economic news. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.07% decline, another indecisive day without a clear signal on direction. The 17% body is in the lower half of the candle as the index attempted to find a rally twice but reversed quickly back to the 13,700 area. The closing range of 44% is better than the previous day, but the lower higher and lower low show the bears put up a good fight. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 9, 2021 Facts: +0.51%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: +72% Good: Never revisited morning low, bullish buying rest of the day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day candle with short lower wick, almost no upper wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The morning producer price index numbers are a great sign for the economy as demand increases in manufactured goods indicates consumer demand. It's not a great sign if you are worried about inflation. The markets opened with a dip on the news, but quickly recovered as the dollar pulled back from the morning reaction to the news. The Nasdaq closed the day with a rally to gain +0.51% with a closing range of 97%. Volume was lower but buyers were present throughout the day, leading to a 72% green body over a small lower wick from the morning dip. The higher high and lower low, with a high closing range, create a bullish outside candle. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The story of the week was the strength of big tech as the four largest mega-caps broke out of bases and drove indexes and their respective sectors higher. The week also saw a breakout of growth stocks relative to value stocks after a few months of rotation. It's still yet to be determined if the trends will stick, but the charts show a positive trend. Although it was Apple with the big weekly gain, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla all helped kick-off the momentum on Monday. Microsoft continued gains from the previous week's big announcement deal with the US Army. Tesla announced record production and deliveries for the first quarter over the holiday weekend. The gap-up on Monday took the index well past a declining resistance line. The big gain warranted a pause as the index tested the 13,700 resistance area. The next two days were mostly sideways choppy action. Investors showed caution in the market, signaled by the rise of Utilities from the bottom to the top of the sector chart during Tuesday's session. The caution continued into Wednesday even as mega-caps continued to advance. Then a surprise consumer credit number arrived late on Wednesday. Instead of a $5B expected number for February, consumer credit rose to $27.58 signaling that consumers were not only confident (from the previous weeks data), but were spending money. That was enough to continue the rally and the Nasdaq opened with another gap up on Thursday despite disappointing jobless claims in the morning. On top of the economic data, the USD dollar continued to weaken while the treasury yield curve was flattening and commodity prices showed high demand. It was bullish for the economy and the right context to see big tech and growth stocks soar. Friday ended the week with an outside day. Prices dipped in the morning as inflation worries crept back into investors' minds after the produce price index data was higher than expected. Those worries subsided and the index continued its rally into the close for the week. The Nasdaq advanced +3.12% for the week. The closing range is 99% for a second week in a row. Volume was lower. The lowering volume trend is largely due to the absence of the retail investor. That is confirmed by VandaTrack, which tracks retail investors and shows they are taking a step back from the market. That's bad news if you want to play your hand in the next YOLO meme stock trade. But it's good news if you want to see fewer swings in the value of your portfolio. The higher high and higher low is a great signal of the uptrend. The index closed just above 13,900 and is working toward the round number resistance of 14,000 before it moves toward a new all-time high. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) both set new all-time highs, making +2.71% and +1.95% advances for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) retreated -0.46% for the week. The Russell 2000 was outperforming since August but has been consolidating since hitting an all-time high in March. Certainly, small-caps and the index will benefit from market rallies, but the question will be at what level of relative performance to the rest of the market. This is something to watch over the coming weeks. The VIX volatility index closed well with the pre-pandemic price range with another -3.69% decline. The absence of retail investors seems to have helped reduce some of the volatility in the market as well. Growth broke out this week relative to value stocks. The dip in relative performance hit a low on March 8 and chopped back and forth before making a big move this week. The S&P 500 was dominated by three growth sectors for the week. Technology ( XLK ) finished the week as the top sector, taking the top spot on Thursday and Friday as big tech companies solidified breakouts from their recent consolidations. Likewise, Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) and Communication Services ( XLC ) finished in second and third place largely thanks for mega-caps that are overweight in the lists. Energy ( XLE ) was at the bottom of the list with over a 4% decline. Some of that may be attributed to mixed outlook from analysts on supply and demand for oil . But Energy also tends to suffer when a large amount of investment rotates into the three big growth sectors. Only Energy declined for the week. The other sectors had gains, albeit underperformed the broader S&P 500 index . The 30y treasury bond yield gained slightly while the 10y note yield declined. The US 2y note yield also declined. Most importantly, the yield curve continues its trend of flattening, helping improve investor confidence in growth companies impacted by interest rates. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and treasury bonds still has some tightening to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but the trend is heading in the right direction. The US Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.89% this week giving a boost to big multi-national companies that can benefit from a weakened US Dollar. The recovery of economic activity is accelerating and that can be seen clearly in demand for commodities. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) declined for the week as investors balance the increased output with expected recovery in demand. Timber (WOOD) advanced for another week. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced for the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps It was a great week for the big four mega-caps. They all drove the indexes and their respective sectors higher. Apple (AAPL) gained + 8.13%, Microsoft (MSFT) gained +5.57%, Amazon (AMZN) gained +6.68%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +6.62%. All four now show the 10 week moving average line above the 40 week moving average line, confirming their uptrends. As an added signal behind the strength of these breakout moves in the mega-caps, note at the volume is higher for all of them and at the bottom, the thick blue bars show a strong outperformance of the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained over 9% after providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for this year during their earnings announcement. Delta Airlines (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) both held onto gains for the week, despite their red candles. Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined for the week, pulled down by downgrade of Chevron and sell-off of Energy stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.588. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the same area, on the side of greed, for most of the week. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.85, showing money managers are increasing position sizes again. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There will be Treasury auctions for 10y and 3y notes on Monday afternoon. The performance of those auctions could impact investor sentiment in the bond market and send yields in either direction. Consumer Price Index data for March will be released on Tuesday. The data compliments the produce price index data released this past week. The produce price index data is leading indicator to consumer price index data, both providing an outlook on inflation. Economic news for Wednesday includes Export/Import Price index data before markets open. Crude Oil Inventory data will be released after the market opens. Thursday has several economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims data before the market opens will hopefully recover a bit from last week's negative surprise. Retail Sales data for March should show an improvement over the February numbers that were brought down by weather events. The Manufacturing Index data and Industrial Production data will also be leading indicators on the recovery of economic activity. Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released on Friday morning. We will also get an update on Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment. This quarters earning season will pick up next week, dominated by earnings reports in the Financial sector. Monday and Tuesday do not have any notable reports for the daily update. On Wednesday, JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) will release earnings reports. In addition, retail stocks Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings. On Thursday, the Financial sector earnings reports will include Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW) and BlackRock (BLK). Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Delta Airlines (DAL) will also be closely watch earnings reports for the day. Friday's reports include Honeywell (HON) and Morgan Stanley (MS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side A lot of the bullish side is a continuation of the signals we saw at the end of the previous week. The mega-caps continued breakout moves on higher volume this week which has led the indexes higher and restored confidence in big tech and growth stocks. The volatility in the market continues to drop to pre-pandemic levels as retail investors spent new stimulus checks on something other than meme stocks. The US Dollar and Treasury Yields have also stopped their climbs that was causing investors to worry about interest rates impacting growth companies while the US Dollar impacts the bottom line of multi-nationals. The growth sectors of Technology, Communications and Consumer Discretionary are leading the market higher. These sectors focused on innovation, have been responsible for many of the big rallies over the past decade. The pop in consumer credit came as a positive surprise this past week. Consumer sentiment numbers this week could add to the positive outlook on spending as consumers unleash record-setting savings and new stimulus checks into the economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Investors are not worry-free. Biden's infrastructure plans and proposal for higher corporate taxes are having analysts and investors calculating the impact to sectors and valuations of US companies. The progress of these proposals in congress will keep investors on their toes for the coming weeks. Inflation also continues to be a top worry, stoked by Friday's produce price index data. The inflation outlook could get worse as consumer price index data is released this week. The Fed's assurance to not change monetary policy to control inflation only helps calm the worries to a certain degree. Energy being at the bottom of the sector list is another sign of the uncertainty. Analysts are watching closely as the pandemic hits third-waves in many countries which could cause lower than hoped demand for travel and leisure, and likewise lower demand for oil. While OPEC is cautiously increasing supply, a sharp pull back in demand will cause the sector further losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq cleared key areas of resistance this past week, leaving just a few key levels in between Friday's close and a new all-time high. On the positive side, the levels are: 13,905.41 is the high of this week. Make a new high for next week to continue the uptrend. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. Round numbers tend to be areas of resistance as they become triggers for alerts and buy/sell rules. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,582.76. The moving average lines are all very close together. The 10d MA is at 13,479.31. The 50d moving average is at 13,452.07. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,439.48. Look for the index to stay above these averages and for the 21d EMA to cross above the 50d MA. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,128 for next week. The low of this past week is 12,922.57. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The signals looked good coming into this week and continue to show positive signs for next week. There are certainly a few things we'd like to see to remain confident. For the Nasdaq, clear the 14,000 line and set a new all-time high, joining the other major indexes. That will require big tech and growth stocks to continue to rally. The Russell 2000 is not participating in the rally thus far. Having it break out of the symmetrical triangle and begin moving along with the other indexes will be a positive sign of broad support in the market. There's a lot of be positive about, but don't forget things can always change quickly. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Weekly Wrap (10/04/2021)NASDAQ:IXIC This week for tech stocks has been rather bullish. With many good catalysts the week before which aided this week's rally, it has really pumped some optimism into the market. With important bullish points having been penetrated in the daily graph such as the 13700 area. Having surpassed this point with no red days has been a very good indicator that there is steam now re-entering the technology sector. However, there is one thing to be cautious of and that is overextension. Although the upward momentum has been very positive, it has now landed the index in a position where it can move too quickly too fast and becomes over-bought. In this situation, I would expect the price to bounce back to its mean of roughly 13500 before once again making a strong move towards the upside. So I guess the most important thing to watch out for particularly in the technology sector is, 1 that the index isn't too over-optimistic and pushes past the 14000 points too quickly and 2, that there aren't any real changes in interest rates that may drive investors out of equities and into other sections of the financial markets. Happy weekend everyone! I hope your trading has gone well for this week. - LMF
TVC:IXICLong
by JustPlainHenry
Daily Market Update for 4/9Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (25d), 4/5 (5d) and today 4/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 9, 2021 Facts: +0.51%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: +72% Good: Never revisited morning low, bullish buying rest of the day Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Bullish outside day candle with short lower wick, almost no upper wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The morning producer price index numbers are a great sign for the economy as demand increases in manufactured goods indicates consumer demand. It's not a great sign if you are worried about inflation. The markets opened with a dip on the news, but quickly recovered as the dollar pulled back from the morning reaction to the news. The Nasdaq closed the day with a rally to gain +0.51% with a closing range of 97%. Volume was lower but buyers were present throughout the day, leading to a 72% green body over a small lower wick from the morning dip. The higher high and lower low, with a high closing range, create a bullish outside candle. The day was dominated by industrials and mega-caps as the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed at a new all-time high with a +0.89% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) also set a record close after a +0.77% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did not do as well but still was able to squeak out a gain of +0.04%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.53%, continuing to move lower into its pre-pandemic trading range. Health (XLV +1.10%) and Industrials (XLI +0.97%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Energy (XLE -0.66%) were bottom. The sectors don't hold any big surprises except Energy which rose to the top of the list just after market open and quickly sank to the bottom by mid-day as the outlook for demand vs supply was mixed among investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.12% but was well off intraday highs driven by the inflation outlook. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined slightly. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Nothing alarming in the commodities. Oil was choppy intraday as analysts tried to figure out the supply and demand outlook. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.588. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps continue to rise. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.02% and Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.21%. Both are moving toward their 21d EMA crossing above the 50d MA to solidify the uptrend. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) already met that milestone and gained +1.03% and 0.90% for the day. United Health (UNH) topped the mega-cap list helping the Health services sector lead for the day. Salesforce.com (CRM), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) round out the top performing mega-caps. As the bottom of the list were Alibaba (BABA), Comcast (CMCSA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Tesla (TSLA). Moderna (MRNA) topped the growth stock list that is about half-and-half gainers and losers. UP Fintech (TIGR), Chewy (CHWY) and Palantir (PLTR) also were at the top of the list. Peloton (PTON), Beyond Meat (BYND), Snowflake (SNOW) and Zoom Video (ZM) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off next week with a 10-year Treasury Note Auction in the afternoon. Earnings reports will start to pick up next week, but there are no notable earnings for the daily update on Monday or Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is inching toward the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day and one-day trend lines point to a +0.34% gain on Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.91% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The day was for the large/mega caps and industrials. Some mid-cap growth stocks also did well. The Russell 2000 and small-caps seemed to give back are consolidating in a bullish symmetric triangle. We can expect the index to eventually breakout and join the other indexes if the market continues upward. I'm confident it will follow the market trend, but the question will be at what pace. The small cap index was on a tear from September to March, outperforming everything, but pulled back with the recent rotations. Will it pick back up the previous pace or will it underperform the other indexes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/8Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (24d), 4/1 (5d) and today 4/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 8, 2021 Facts: +1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: +45% Good: Gains all-day with few pullbacks, high closing range, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick under a green body, no upper wick Advance/Decline: Three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.42%), DJI (+0.17%), RUT (+0.88%), VIX (-1.22%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shook off early nervousness over higher jobless claims and bulls led the markets rally throughout the day. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and commodity prices all supported Technology as the leading sector of the day, carrying the Nasdaq to the leading index of the day. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.03% gain on higher volume. The 99% closing range resulted from a 45% green body at the top of the candle which opened with a gap above yesterday's close. The lower wick was formed in the morning, but the index quickly erased the dip with gains into the afternoon that ended with a rally at close. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied after a few days of declines and ended the day with a +0.88% gain. The S&P 500 advanced +0.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed with a +0.17% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -1.22% and is now well within the pre-pandemic range of highs and lows. Technology (XLK +1.44%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.47%) were top sectors for the day. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) opened with gains in the morning but faded to near the bottom of the list by the end of the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Energy (XLE -1.30%) were the worst performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.38% continues to retreat from a pivot high at the end of March. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all declined. The yield curve continued its trend of flattening. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are showing strong demand and bullish for the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.592. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. The NAAIM exposure index rose to 89.95 from 52.02 the previous week. The index, released on Wednesday evenings represents the amount of exposure in active investment managers portfolios. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for another day. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.92% and +1.34%, helping carry the indexes into close. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.61% and +0.51%, but closed in the lower half of the intraday range. We are still anticipating the crossover of the 21d EMA over the 50d MA for Apple and Amazon which will signal a confident uptrend. Microsoft and Alphabet have already met that milestone. PayPal (PYPL +3.48%), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.95%), ASML Holding (ASML +2.13%), Tesla (TSLA +1.91%) were at the top of the mega-cap list. Big communications companies Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) joined Nike (NIKE) at the bottom of the list, all with over 2% declines. Today was much better for growth stocks than the previous day, with the majority of growth in the daily update list having gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), GrowGeneration (GRWG), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with over 10% gains each. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Dr Horton (DHI) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted if the number is far off forecast. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is nearing the 14,000 support/resistance area. A breakthrough of that line will be a confidence booster on the way to new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. The five-day trend line points to a +1.16% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a small gain of +0.16%. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.85% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything lined up nicely for big tech and growth stocks today. Yields dropped back as the yield curve continues to flatten. The US dollar weakened, benefiting big multinational companies. Commodities show high demand indicating economic activity picking back up. Eyes will be on the produce price index data tomorrow before market opens. Higher prices would indicate more demand for products as a result of increased spending, but it may also make investors nervous about inflation. Still, Jerome Powell held firm today that inflation was unlikely, so investors will have to balance their worries with assurances from the Fed that changes in economic policy are still long off in the future. Don't fight the fed. The resurgence of growth stocks continues to accelerate relative to value stocks. The gains were broad across the category today. Many of the charts for growth have a long way to go to get past overhead supply and reach new all-time highs. Value stocks have leveled off for the past few weeks, could be basing and may have some more growth of their own. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
IXIC 3/29/2021Daily Chart: Breakout out of its previous consolidation phase, NASDAQ went on a run between 11/24/20 thru 2/17/21 peaking at almost 14200.00 for All-time highs. During that move, price respected the 10EMA before breaking down on 2/19/21. From its peak, price has fallen as low as 12% from the all-time highs. A Support area has been established around 13000 with multiple touches. Price has fallen below this price twice and twice the lower prices were rejected with the buyers showing their strength and buying it up. To further display the strength, higher lows were made and a previous trendline was respected as well. After making its way back above the Support Area of 13000, we finished the day with a spinning top candlestick. The current state of the market can be compared to the previous consolidation that occurred after stocks reached all-time highs and peaked on 9/20/20. From that peak, stocks fell as low as 12.7% from highs. After multiple touches, a Support area was established at 10800.00. Here we had price fall below it once and reject lower prices. A trendline was created after a series of higher lows where price then made a move to Resistance area and breaking out shortly after. Look for history to repeat itself. A lot of positives and strength can be taken away here from a “Long” perspective. The price rejections, higher lows, respect of previous trendline, and the price making its way back to Support area all display the buyer strength. We are also currently in an Uptrend and the spinning top candlestick at support during Uptrend is the que to reenter the markets. All these factors have led me to believe we are at a bottom. I will investigate the other major indexes for further confirmation and look to reenter the market. The American Stock Market makes me proud to be an American. God Bless America.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by rudcharts
Daily Market Update for 4/7Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (23d), 3/31 (5d) and today 4/7 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 7, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume lower, Closing range: 44%, Body: +17% Good: Stayed near 13,700 support, lower volume, not a distribution day Bad: Indecisive candle, no signal on direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (-5.30%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a choppy side-ways session today for most of the market. The small caps suffered compared to the larger caps while mid-cap growth stocks had mixed results. Overall, investor sentiment remained cautious without many big reactions to economic news. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.07% decline, another indecisive day without a clear signal on direction. The 17% body is in the lower half of the candle as the index attempted to find a rally twice but reversed quickly back to the 13,700 area. The closing range of 44% is better than the previous day, but the lower higher and lower low show the bears put up a good fight. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a +0.15% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.05%. Both indexes were helped by mega-caps. The small caps didn’t fare so well. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.60% in a bearish day for the sector. The VIX volatility index declined +5.30% and closed at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Communications (XLC +0.77%) and Technology (XLK +0.53%) led the sector list. Industrials (XLI -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -1.72%) were at the bottom. Utilities (XLU -0.12%) retreated from the top of the list yesterday, signaling a bit more confidence among investors despite the subdued results in the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both advanced for the day while 2y note yield declined. The yield curve steepened, but is still in a flattening trend since the beginning of April. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined slightly for the day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained for a second day. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.589. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps gained for the day and all four closed above the key moving average lines now that Apple (AAPL) finally closed above the 50d MA. The next milestone for these four will be to get the 21d EMA above the 50d MA showing a lasting trend after the dips in March. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are already there. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) still have the 21d EMA below the 50d MA but are starting to close the gap. Facebook (FB), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are an interestingly diverse set of mega-caps to top the list for the day, representing four difference sectors. At the bottom of the list is Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Walt Disney (DIS). It was a challenging day for growth stocks as the majority of the daily update list had declines. SNAP (SNAP), Square (SQ), Twitter (TWTR) and PayPal (PYPL) topped the list, echoing the sector leaders. At the bottom of the list were yesterday's growth stock leaders including UP Fintech (TIGR) and Ehang Holdings (EH). Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG) were also near the bottom despite getting a boost the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday brings the weekly Job Claims in the morning. At noon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak which will be watched closely and balanced against the FOMC Meeting Minutes from last month that were released today. There are no notable earnings reports for Thursday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +1.89% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.40% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Indecision. Investors eyes were on the FOMC Meeting Minutes but sentiment remained unchanged after they were released. It sent the same message we've been hearing from the Fed, including a strong commitment to economic recovery while pushing off any policy changes until substantial progress is made. In a surprise at the end of the day, consumer credit for February was much higher than expected showing economic stimulus starting to work toward getting consumers spending again. It seems that growth stocks are beginning to gain ground again compared to value stocks. Since the beginning of March, this chart that compares Growth to Value has pivoted from a sharp decline that started in August. It has not been an easy rotation. There is still a lot of back and forth with growth stocks, and new winners are being sought out. The churn is likely caused by the mass exit of retail investors from the market. Those investors were heavily leaning on growth stocks in 2020 and the beginning of 2021, but volume has dropped significantly as lock downs end and consumers find other things to spend money on. Keep an eye out for new opportunities as the 2021 winners begin to emerge. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq short term outlook Headed towards gap fill at 13842(Yellow line). Consolidated a last few day after that massive 600+ 3day rally.. My only concerns are those 3 gaps left behind ; 2 of which I highlighted. I really find it hard to believe the Nasdaq can reach new highs without closing at least one of those gaps. It'll be interesting to see what happens once it reaches 13842, if it punches through then 14k is incoming. Green line is fib support. If it falls below 13620 I'd look for a nearest gap fill.
TVC:IXIC
by ContraryTrader
1
NASDAQ on a tearBefore it was a question of the Nassie holding support at 13000, which it did, then breaking it's downtrend and holding above 13300... which it did.... and then it was a question of it needing to break resistance zone and selling pressure around 13600, which it's done. AMAZING. With so much gapping up, the best case scenario before anything more would be a little consolidation around this region, showing that this move has got some good weight behind it for making a move for new ATHs. Regaining it's 50 day SMA is very good, and as it can be seen previously when it ' double dipped ' below, it then proceeded to channel upwards for an extended period of time. Does the same way it's 'double dipped ' below the 50 day SMA recently, mean that this could now be headed for another period of excellent gains?
TVC:IXICLong
by Teabo
Daily Market Update for 4/6Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (22d), 3/30 (5d) and today 4/6 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 6, 2021 Facts: -0.05%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: +16% Good: Higher high, higher low, held support around 13,700 Bad: Long upper shadow from afternoon selling Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long upper shadow above a thin green body Advance/Decline: About three declining for every two advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.10%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-0.25%), VIX (+1.17%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.43%) were top. Health Services (XLV -0.38%) and Technology (XLK -0.43%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview There was caution in the market on Tuesday after several days of record setting gains. Investors are monitoring the progress of infrastructure plans and the potential for new taxes. At the same time, the pandemic keeps popping up new fears as Canada declares a very serious third wave. The Nasdaq closed with a small -0.05% loss, after climbing 0.5% in the morning. The closing range of 24% is above a thin 16% body signaling indecision. The long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that sold off in the afternoon. Still, the index seemed to have support around the 13,700 area, testing the area twice and settling just below the line at the close. There were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The S&P 500 closed the day with a -0.10% after setting another all-time high in the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both delivered inside days (lower high, higher low) with -0.29% and -0.25% declines. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.17%. The sectors show a clear shift in investor sentiment about an hour after open. Energy was leading the sector list in the morning before a downgrade of Chevron by Goldman Sachs. The downgrade doesn't explain it all as Exxon Mobil and oil prices also came down from morning highs. The other signal of investor nervousness was the shift of Utilities (XLU) from the bottom sector in the morning to the top sector at close. The only other sector that seemed to react to the change in sentiment was Financials (XLF) likely as investors bought up treasuries and brought long term yields down. Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ended the day at the top sector list. Health Services (XLV) and Technology (XLK) ended the day at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.29% but did not seem to be impacted by the morning change in sentiment. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both declined for the day while 2y note yields rose. The yield curve continues to flatten. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced and continue in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) ended the day with gains, despite pulling back from morning highs. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All are still showing strong demand. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is remained about the same, on the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Among the big four mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) ended the day with gains. However the declines across the other three were not enough to invalidate breakouts. With the big gains over the previous three sessions, there should be no surprise for prices to pause here. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are all trading above both key moving average lines (the 21d EMA and 50d MA). Apple hit resistance at the 50d MA and closed below the line. Alibaba (BABA), Nike (NIKE) and AT&T (T) were some of the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom were Intel (INTC), United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML). Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains for the day. Top winners were ROKU (ROKU), UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and DataDog (DDOG). Investors still seem a bit uncertain which of these growth names will benefit with the economic recovery as they still chop back and forth regularly. For example Zynga (ZNGA) was near the top of the list yesterday, and at the bottom of the list today. DataDog at the bottom of the list yesterday and near the top today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There will be a few key updates on Wednesday morning. First employment data for March will be updated. Purchasing Managers Index data will indicate how much purchasing activity is happening in order to meet manufacturing demands. Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for Wednesday for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index still has support in the 13,600-13,700 area and stayed above it after two tests today. The five-day trend line points to a +2.10% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line is nearly flat and points to a sideways move tomorrow. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.90% loss, which is just above the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors showed some nervousness today mid-morning, changing momentum in the market for several sectors. Despite the switch in sentiment, key areas of support held and we could view the day's result as a pause during a fairly aggressive uptrend the past few days. Still, the candle itself has that appearance of a shooting star that signals the end of an uptrend. So it could be things need to move sideways a bit here or even pull back once more before proceeding. With the overall economic situation continuing to approve, more upside seems in the future, but only the market can tell us when it will happen. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/5Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (21d), 3/29 (5d) and today 4/5 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 5, 2021 Facts: +1.67%, Volume lower, Closing range: 94% (w/Gap), Body: +80% Good: Three positive days in a row, above 13,700 confirmed with a quick retest Bad: Lowering volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, mostly green body with a slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: About the same number of advancing as declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+1.44%), DJI (+1.13%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.35%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) and Communications (XLC +2.11%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only declining sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The markets set new records on Monday led by gains from the largest public companies in Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Technology. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial marked new all-time highs with a bullish session that began the day with opening gap ups. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.67% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 94% includes the morning gap-up that led to an 80% green body. A minor fade in the afternoon created a slightly longer upper wick than the lower wick but the higher high and higher low continue a strong uptrend from last week's pivot. There were about the same number of gaining stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.44% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +1.13%. Small caps also had gains, but not quite as strong as the large and mega-caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gains +0.49%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.35%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.27%) , Communications (XLC +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.07%) are all worth mentioning as the top sectors. They were the three to outperform the SPX which means they were also responsible for much of the gains in the broader index. All three were led higher by at least one of the top ten mega-caps. Energy (XLE -2.39%) was the only losing sector of the day due to a drop in crude oil prices. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% adding support to large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields rose slightly for the day, but seem under control. 2y notes yields rose a bit more and narrowed the spread between short and long term. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Both are in an uptrend. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined slightly but seem to have support. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) futures declined as OPEC decided to increase production but then the pandemic seems to be worsening in Europe. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained flat. The soaring commodity prices show recovering demand in the economy, but could also be sign of coming inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.501. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved more toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The biggest four mega-caps produced some eye-popping charts today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) broke out into new all-time highs with +2.77% and +4.19% gains. Both are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMAZN) gained +2.08% and moved back above the 50d MA, and trades above both lines as well. Apple (AAPL) gained a respectable +2.36%, but still has some work to do to get above the 50d MA. Tesla (TSLA) found its way to the top of the mega-cap list after announcing record production and deliveries for the last quarter. Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet all have gains of over 3% helping their respective sectors lead for the day. At the bottom of the list is Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobile (XOM). The growth stock list is a bit harder to decipher. Results are mixed and overall lean toward losses. Outside of Tesla and Facebook topping the list, Pinterest (PINS), Dr Horton (DHI) and Zynga (ZNGA) had leading gains for the day. However, a good number of growth stocks had more than 2% losses for the day with Enphase (ENPH), Etsy (ETSY) , Solar Edge (SEDG) and DataDog (DDOG) leading the declines with more than 4% losses. As the market turns toward a new rally, expect investors to be figuring out who the new winners and losers will be in the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers will be released just after market open. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be updated after market close. There are no notable earnings reports for Tuesday except maybe PAYX that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600-13,700 support area and stayed above despite a quick retest. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect a +1.64% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.57% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -2.62% loss, which is below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. There are some gaps to fill in the last few session opens, so it would not be a big surprise to revisit these areas. However, there is support at the 13,700 line and the 50d MA which could help reverse any dips. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech showed up again last Wednesday afternoon but faded into close. It can back with a vengeance on Thursday and now is proving they are here to stay. Having Microsoft and Alphabet clear new all-time highs is a positive. There's no overhead supply for them to contend with for further gains. On the other hand, there are plenty of other mega-caps and growth stocks alike that need to claw their way back to all-time highs. The overhead supply, investors holding since prior to the dips, will cause some resistance as the sell on the way back up. The final characteristic from today is in deciphering investor sentiment for growth stocks. Some of the stocks that seemed poised to recover quickly pulled back again today despite the broader gains. Investors must be deciding which companies are the most likely to benefit from the recovering economy and new infrastructure proposals being debated in congress. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week In Review - 3/29/2021 - 4/1/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 29, 2021 Facts: -0.6%, Volume lower, Closing range: 52%, Body: -25% Good: Inside day on lower volume with a slightly longer lower wick Bad: Lower high with two intraday dips Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Red body in the middle of candle with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 5 declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (-2.83%), VIX (+9.97%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.07%) and Communications (XLC +1.02%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.32%) and Energy (XLE -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a choppy day to start the week. The intraday movement has the look of a spiral that indicates indecision in the market. That's not unexpected considering that investors had a few things to be nervous about including the re-opening of the Suez Canal and the large forced fire-sale from Archegos continuing into this week. It's also no surprise seeing the impact to the Energy and Financials sectors. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.6% loss on lower volume for the day. The inside day has a lower high and higher low. The closing range is 0.52% which is above the 0.40% that we want to see, and the longer lower wick indicates an upward trend intraday. So despite the red body and decline for the day, there are some positives to the candle. On the other hand, there were five declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing range: 80%, Body: +24% Good: Closing range of 80%, recovered from morning dip below 13,000 Bad: Lower high, lower low, trending down Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin green body in the upper half of the candle, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: A bit more than one advancing stock for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (-0.32%), DJI (-0.31%), RUT (+1.72%), VIX (-5.45%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.70%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.95%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.07%). Expectation: Sideways or Higher The bond market continued to show its influence on equities today, seemingly in a battle with strong consumer confidence numbers. A pre-market spike in long-term bond yields drove the Financials sector to a gap up at open. However, the yields began to taper off even before stronger than expected consumer confidence numbers were released after market open. The strong numbers sent the Consumer Discretionary sector to the top to finish the day. The Nasdaq never quite recovered from the morning yield scare, but did end the day in the upper range of the candle. The index closed with a -0.11% loss for the day on lower volume. The closing range of 80% is good indicator for intraday bullishness, but the 24% body and lower high means the index still has much to prove. There were 1.2 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 31, 2021 Facts: +1.54%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: +60% Good: Higher high, lower low, back above the 21d EMA Bad: Fade at the end of the day created long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with n lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+1.13%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The breakout that wasn't. News from Microsoft drove a mid-afternoon buying frenzy that was visible in the Microsoft intraday chart and big enough to show up in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. However, the breakout quickly faded and took the indexes with it to close away from intraday highs. Still there were good gains in the market thanks to a bullish morning on positive economic outlook with Biden's announced infrastructure plans. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.54% gain on higher volume, and gave us the gain with higher confidence we were waiting for. The closing range of 62% is above a 60% body with no lower wick. There is a long upper wick from the dip at the end of the day. There were 1.32 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 1, 2021 Facts: +1.76%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96% (w/ Gap), Body: +79% Good: Rally above and stayed above 50d MA Bad: Flat after initial rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, Mostly green body with barely visible upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.18%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+1.50%), VIX (-10.67%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.55%) and Technology (XLK +2.01%) were top. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Hello April and Q2! The Nasdaq leapt into the new month and quarter with a gap up and rise above the 50d moving average while the S&P 5000 closed over 4000 for the first time in history. Solid breakouts from big tech and a breadth of gains across indexes and sectors helped put strength behind the moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.76% gain on lower volume. The 96% closing range includes the gap and represents a quick rise in the morning that leveled off but never gave back the gains. The 79% body includes a few tests of the 50d MA in intraday trading, but support held. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) This week marked the end of the first quarter of 2021, a quarter of volatility driven by the retail frenzy around meme stocks, a steepening yield curve caused by inflation fears and the landing of over a trillion dollars of support to the economy. The last few days of the quarter also had its dramas. All eyes were on the ship stuck in the Suez Canal to open the week. Investors were also shocked by a $20b fire sale of positions from Archegos family fund at the end of the previous week and beginning of this week. That nervousness brought the index down on Monday and Tuesday to test the lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. On Wednesday, Biden released his plan to boost the economic recovery through a massive multi-trillion dollar infrastructure investment. That gave the whole market a kick start for the day. Buyers came in and got the index back above the kay moving average lines with a rally on Wednesday to pass the 21d EMA and gap-up on Thursday to pass the 50d MA. The gains Thursday were shared broadly across the market with the S&P 500 (SPX) hitting the milestone of closing above 4000 for the first time. Microsoft made its market influence known this week. On Wednesday, it released news around 3pm that the US Army had agreed to a large purchase of a customized Hololens, an augmented reality device. The news not only sent the Microsoft price soaring, but because of its oversized market cap, the move was visible in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The huge move, that happened within 5 minutes, sold-off for the remaining hour and brought the indexes back down. Even with the sell-off before close on Wednesday, the message was received that big tech was back and ready to continue growth even as investors were looking to value stocks. Thursday all of the tech mega-caps had gains. Both Microsoft and Alphabet had breakouts from bases. The Nasdaq appeared to be back in the game. The Nasdaq advanced +2.60% for the week. The closing range is 99% as the index closed near its high on Friday. Volume was lower, but it's important to note that Nasdaq and US market volume is on a decline from higher-than-average volume in 2020 and early 2021. Comparing volume to the broader US stock market volume, Nasdaq comparatively was higher than the previous week. We've got a higher high and a higher low, after the index tested the lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has resistance around 13,600 and we'll watch that closely as the higher lows squeeze into an ascending triangle. The S&P 500 has the focus this week since it closed above 4000 after advancing +1.15%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is attempting to regain its advance with a +1.46% gain this week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) advanced +0.52% The VIX volatility index closed at its lowest point since before the pandemic with a -8.11% decline. Communications ( XLC ) did not top the sector list for a single day, but it's steady gains throughout the week put it at the top of the weekly chart. Utilities ( XLU ) started the week on top. Investors were nervous on Monday about the lasting impact of the Suez Canal blockage and whether a $20b fire sale of Archegos investments would grow or even expand to other firms. Utilities popped back into the story late on Wednesday when a sudden pop and sell-off in big tech occurred in the final hour. Financials ( XLF ) was also impacted by the Archegos drama on Monday. By Tuesday, the damage was contained and higher treasury bond yields provided a life to the sector, making it a top performer for the day. Technology ( XLK ) got a boost on Wednesday when Microsoft announced news of an augmented reality deal with the US Army. That spike sold off quickly, but the buyers came back in on Thursday, bringing the Technology sector up to second place for the week. Energy ( XLE ) spent most of the week at the bottom of the list. Higher-then-expected demand for oil and gas and a generally positive outlook for economic growth brought the sector gains on Thursday that lifted it from the bottom. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) ended the week as the worst performing sector. The rotation out of staples could continue as investors see consumers return to normal spending habits in a strengthening economic cycle . The 30y treasury bond yield dropped for a second week while the 10y note yield remained about the same. The US 2y note yield advanced, helping the yield curve flatten a bit for the week. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined for the week while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) advanced. The Investment Grade bond prices have been increased for three weeks. The spread between high yield bonds and short term treasury bonds is continuing to tighten. The US Dollar (DXY) remained about flat at a -0.02% decline. The pause in climbing certainly helps with big multinationals, especially big tech, which are impacted by currency fluctuations. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced despite fluctuating the past few weeks over the Suez Canal drama. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined for the week. All the commodities showed bullish moves on Friday while the entire market rallied. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps Alphabet (GOOGL) led the Communications sector with a +5.18% gain for the week, breaking out of a base forming since mid-February. Microsoft (MSFT) also made a breakout move with a +2.48% gain for the week. Watch these two closely next week even if they are not in your portfolio. Having these breakouts stick is an important indicator for the market. Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) both had gains of +1.48% and +3.57% respectively. They still have some work to do. Apple needs to rise above the 10w moving average line. Amazon needs to stay above both lines to keep the 10w above the 40w and show an upward trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. All of them except Exxon Mobil (XOM) had gains for the week. That's positive that investors are no longer taking from either growth or value to invest in the other. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) had the biggest gain with a +3.07% advance. Delta Airlines (DAL) gained +2.45% and Marriott (MAR) gained +0.99%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) spent most of the past two weeks above 0.600 but ended this week at 0.538 as investors became more bullish. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index has also been hovering around neutral but moved back toward greed at the end of the week. The NAAIM exposure index moved down to 52.02. Money managers were reducing positions in the market as of Wednesday when the survey is taken. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Purchasing Managers data for March that is a leading indicator for economic activity. That data will be complemented by Factor Orders data just after market open. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released Tuesday morning. After the market opens, the JOLT Job Openings report for February will be released. Crude Oil Stock data will be released after market close. Wednesday kicks- off with Export, Imports and Trade Balance data. Crude Oil Inventories will be released after market open. In the afternoon, the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting a few weeks ago will be released. Thursday brings the weekly Job Claims in the morning. At noon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. On Friday, the producer price index data will be released that gives a view into inflation. Expect the US dollar and Treasury Yields to be impacted. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side A lot of things look great about the market at the end of this week. Thursday ended the week with gains across all major indexes. Those gains held right into the closing bell despite the three day weekend which typically moves investors into a cautious mode. The VIX volatility index dropped to its lowest level in over a year. It closed back within the range of 2019 and early 2020 before the pandemic. Both the Energy and Technology sectors led on Friday. Growth stocks and value stocks ended the week with gains instead of rotating between the two. Yields moving up or down seemed to have less impact on tech mega-caps and growth stocks. The mega-caps also ended the week with solid moves upward. Alphabet and Microsoft broke out of bases which will help carry the Nasdaq to further gains. Tesla reported strong quarterly production and delivery numbers over the weekend which should help it break out on Monday. Volume was lower for the week, but weekly volume has been elevated from the beginning of the year. As rotations subside and volatility gets under control, we should expect trading volume to get lower as investors stop chasing from one sector to the next. The US Dollar and Treasury Yields appear to be leveling off from recent increases. That should help bring back in cautious investors who feared the dollar would rise sharply and eat into valuations of large multinationals. With the yield curve starting to flatten, there will be less worries about soaring interest rates impacting growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side President Biden's infrastructure package was a bit surprising for some. The package did include traditional infrastructure spend on roads, airports and the power grid. But it also included a large portion focused on new energy, broadband internet and payments to unions that will be disrupted by some of the changes. The result is that some of the expected investment for the Industrial and Materials sectors is not there. Those sectors barely budged after the infrastructure plans were released. The proposal also comes with a looming tax raise for corporations that is expected to cut into profits as much as 7%. If those tax proposals pass through congress, you can certainly expect the market to reprice the impacted stocks. Although recent economic data has shown inflation under control, there is more and more buzz on the street that prices are going up at the supermarket and at the pump. Some of the traditional leading indicators of inflation may be a little slow to show the sudden surge that's expected in consumer spending. Higher numbers for the producer price indexes could bring back those fears of inflation that were impacting the markets in March. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq stayed in a channel drawn from the March 2020 bottom and broke out of the symmetrical triangle we had drawn on the chart last week. Now as resistance is met at the 13,600 level, the higher lows should squeeze the index and eventually cause a breakout above that level. That's what we will watch for this week. On the positive side, the level we still want to reach is still 13,620.71: The index closed the week very close to its high of 13,487.08. Set a new high for next week to keep the uptrend going. The next line is 13,620.71 which is the high from three weeks ago. But it is also past the area of resistance that the index was rejected on 1/26, 3/2, and 3/16. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are several levels to watch: The 50d moving average is at 13,427.76. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,234.87. Both moving average lanes are key support lines. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,005 for next week. 13,000 has been an area of support on 1/29, 2/23, 3/3. The index moved below that support area again this week, but was able to rise back above it and rally. The low of this past week is 12,922.57. Stay above that price to give us a higher low for this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There were a lot of positive signs by the time this short week of trading closed. But the indexes and indicators here are only one input to the investors outlook. Look at your portfolio or watch lists and see how stocks are acting. Are they breaking out of bases and are the break outs sticking? Or are breakouts failing with prices falling back into the base? How your focus stocks perform will be the final indicator of whether to increase exposure. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 4/01Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (20d), 3/26 (5d) and today 4/1 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 1, 2021 Facts: +1.76%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96% (w/ Gap), Body: +79% Good: Rally above and stayed above 50d MA Bad: Flat after initial rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up, Mostly green body with barely visible upper and lower wicks. Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.18%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+1.50%), VIX (-10.67%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.55%) and Technology (XLK +2.01%) were top. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Hello April and Q2! The Nasdaq leapt into the new month and quarter with a gap up and rise above the 50d moving average while the S&P 5000 closed over 4000 for the first time in history. Solid breakouts from big tech and a breadth of gains across indexes and sectors helped put strength behind the moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.76% gain on lower volume. The 96% closing range includes the gap and represents a quick rise in the morning that leveled off but never gave back the gains. The 79% body includes a few tests of the 50d MA in intraday trading, but support held. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) set a milestone, advancing +1.18%, to close above 4000 for the first time ever. The Russell 2000 (RUT) put in its third day of gains with a +1.50% advance. The Dow Joins Industrial (DJI) average climbed +0.52%. The VIX volatility index declined -10.67% to close at its lowest point since before the pandemic. Energy (XLE +2.55%) topped the sector list as crude oil prices spiked on better than expected inventory data for Crude and Gasoline, demonstrating high demand. Technology (XLK +2.01%) also topped the sector list, boosted by big tech gains from Microsoft and Apple and generally great performance across the entire sector. Health (XLV -0.30%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%) were at the bottom of the list. Utilities (XLU -0.09%) was also at the bottom of the list, not participating in the gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02% and has leveled off from recent gains, helping alleviate some risk for large multi-nationals. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yields both dropped while the 2y note yield rose, helping bring back down the steep yield curve. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices pulled back from recent gains while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both continued to advance. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. All of this shows a bullish outlook on the economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.538. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward Greed, but not at an extreme level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, gains that had a lot more strength than the previous day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the largest gain of the four with a +3.26% advance and a record-setting close. Microsoft (MSFT) couldn't quite reach all-time highs but advanced +2.79% in a clear breakout from a base. Amazon (AMZN) had a +2.16% gain but stopped short of its 50d MA line. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.70%, closing just above its 21d EMA but well below its 50d MA. Semiconductors and Communication stocks topped the mega-cap list. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet were the top four gainers. Most mega-caps advanced for the day. UnitedHealth (UNH), Toyota Motor ™ and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list, all declining more than 1%. Growth Stocks also had a good day. Topping the daily update list were MongoDB (MDB), Pinterest (PINS), DataDog (DDOG) and Fastly (FSLY). All four of these sold off heavily in February and March and are trying to regain ground. At the bottom of the list were Chewy (CHWY), Ehang Holdings (EH) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets are closed on Good Friday, but employment data will be released. At the time of this writing, the data is already released and showed great recovery in the labor market. Monday will kick-off the week with Purchasing Managers data for March that is a leading indicator for economic activity. That data will be complemented by Factor Orders data just after market open. There are no notable earnings reports for the daily update next week except maybe PAYX on Tuesday that could confirm a positive outlook for the labor market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 50d moving average in the morning and stayed above the line. The five-day trend line points to a +0.47% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points sideways to a minor -0.05% decline and stays above the 50d MA line. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -1.67% loss, which below the 50d MA and just above the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The expectation was higher for today. Thankfully the market didn't pull an April Fools. Thursday was the kind of day we want to see as a new month and new quarter starts. Gains across all the indexes and most of the sectors. Volatility at its lowest in over a year. Energy and Technology leading the sector list. Solid moves from the large mega-caps. Commodity prices advanced on expected demand. The US Dollar is strengthening but not out of control. The yield curve is starting to show some control. The only thing missing was volume. It was lower than the previous day. However, that may also be a positive sign as volume has been running high since the beginning of December and peaked in February. Maybe, just maybe, some of the frenzy of retail investing as subsided and volume is coming back down to normal levels. Maybe, just maybe, lower volume means continued lower volatility as well. That looks good, but things can change quickly, so always trade with a stop loss. :) Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
6
Nasdaq short term updateBroke thru resistance trendline on chart and RSI yesterday ; Momentum is continuing this morning l. Premarket numbers have it right At its 50MA at 13427. It will take a lot of volume to push through that. If it can reclaim it the next resistance/target will be 13620. In my opinion , even if it climbs back over the 50ma early in the market I don't think it will hold if we see a sell off in the last hour like we did yesterday which would leave right back where we started Monday. Next support if any rejection of the 50 mark is fib support at 13331 (Blue line).
TVC:IXIC
by ContraryTrader
Nassie must hold 13,000As per my previous charts, the Nassie (cute name for Nasdaq I heard) has to hold this support level of 13000 if there's sign that the bulls are still in play in this market. Bears have been hibernating for a long time and are out but I don't believe the market is ready to pullback further/give up just yet. That being said, if this level doesn't hold, a short tumble of 3.5-4% would be easy to see, taking us down to 12600 support once more. On the other hand, just 1-1.5% up would land at the downtrend line. A bit more could pierce through it and finally show some hope this downtrend is coming to an end.
TVC:IXICLong
by Teabo
Daily Market Update for 3/31Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (19d), 3/25 (5d) and today 3/31 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 31, 2021 Facts: +1.54%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: +60% Good: Higher high, lower low, back above the 21d EMA Bad: Fade at the end of the day created long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick green body with n lower wick, long upper wick Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.36%), DJI (-0.26%), RUT (+1.13%), VIX (-1.07%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The breakout that wasn't. News from Microsoft drove a mid-afternoon buying frenzy that was visible in the Microsoft intraday chart and big enough to show up in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. However, the breakout quickly faded and took the indexes with it to close away from intraday highs. Still there were good gains in the market thanks to a bullish morning on positive economic outlook with Biden's announced infrastructure plans. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.54% gain on higher volume, and gave us the gain with higher confidence we were waiting for. The closing range of 62% is above a 60% body with no lower wick. There is a long upper wick from the dip at the end of the day. There were 1.32 advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) added to the previous day's gains with a +1.13% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) also advanced, gaining +0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was weighed down by Financial and Energy stocks and declined -0.26%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.07%. Technology (XLK +1.59%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.78%) were top sectors for the day. Energy (XLE -0.69%) and Financials (XLF -0.76%) were at the bottom. Interestingly, Materials (XLB -0.49%) and Industrials (XLI -0.32%) declined for the day despite Biden's infrastructure plans. It could be a case of sell the news. Another note is that Utilities (XLU +0.74%) climbed in the last hour from fifth place to third place just behind Consumer Discretionary. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed -0.07%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y notes yields all gained for the day with the yield curve steepening. The increase in yields was not a surprise given the news on infrastructure investments, so there was less of a negative reaction from the equities market. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both reversed from two days of declines and advanced today. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back to Neutral. The stock market components of the index are still in the Fear and Extreme Fear categories. Those include price strength, price breadth and Put/Call ratio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All of biggest four mega-caps had gains for the day, but all closed well below intraday highs. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed above the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) rallied above the 21d EMA but was unable to hold above the line. The higher volume is a positive, but the pull back from the breakout attempt shows some weakness. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML) were the top mega-caps of the day. Energy and Financial stocks were at the bottom, including Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and JP Morgan (JPM). Communications companies AT&T (T) and Comcast Corp (CMCSA) were also at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks popped again today. Leading the list were Chinese fintech companies Up Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) with +20.94% and 15.20% gains. GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Moderna (MRNA) also had gains of over 10%. 18 of the growth stocks in the daily update list gained over 5%. It's not meant to be an exhaustive list, but the point remains, there were a lot of big gainers today in growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, an OPEC meeting is scheduled which will impact outlook for oil supply/demand. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. Additional Manufacturing data for March will indicate how the sector is recovering. Also keep in mind to characteristics for tomorrow. It's the beginning of a new quarter and a historically positive month for markets. It's also the last day of trading this week heading into a three-day weekend. CarMax (KMX) reports on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved above the 21d EMA in the morning and stayed above that line, despite the dip before close. If the one-day trend line continues, we can expect a +1.02% gain for Thursday, and ending just under the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a +0.42% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a -0.36% loss, which is just below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was positive to see a good gain on higher volume today. The longer upper wick is reminiscent of the candle on 3/22 where I called an expectation of Higher for the next day. But the index dropped 3% over the next two days. So that gives me some caution in the expectation of Sideways or Higher for tomorrow. There are some differences in the underlying characteristics of the 3/22 candle. The breadth in gains was not there for 3/22, with two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Today, we have more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The advances on 3/22 happened as treasury yields declined and investors seemed to be in and out of tech stocks based on the movement in yields. Today's rally in tech stocks happened despite higher yields. The creation of the longer upper wick was the same, a sell-off into close after an intraday high. The catalyst this time has a few possibilities. Perhaps Yellen's announcement of more scrutiny on hedge funds stirred the market. But the impact of Microsoft's huge afternoon rally and then pullback can also be felt in the indexes. The timing of the rally and sell-off coincides with the rise in the Utilities sector, a sector that investors run to when their nervous. So I'm bullish with caution for tomorrow. Let's look forward to a great first day of April. And market, don't make a fool out of me. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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