The Alpha in Alphabet Google
MACD Cross Historic Performance
July 2009 – 6 months – 48%
Sept 2010 – 5 months – 43%
Nov 2011 – 2 months – 19%
Jul 2012 – 3 months – 37%
Sept 2015 – 5 months - 31%
Mar 2017 – 3 months – 21%
Oct 2019 – 4 months – 25%
Apr 2020 – 5 months – 59%
Min return = c.19% over 3 months (least risky)
Max return = c.50% over 5 months
Average Overall = c.35% over 5 months.
Average return of the 8 past MACD crosses above is 35%. We have projected a modest 20% increase 2 to 3 months post MACD cross (Likely July/August bid). That’s IF we get the cross in then. Worth noting we are about 20% away from the ATH of $151. Keep in mind that a MACD cross is a lagging indicator so we try and anticipate the cross scenario.
Given the history of price in this long term parallel channel since Nov 2008, an incredibly idyllic scenario would be a revisit of the bottom of the channel or a revisit of the 50 month smooth moving average(SMA) in purple. If we ever revisited the 50 Month SMA or 200 week SMA I believe this would be a major opportunity, given this has only occurred 4 times in almost 15 years.
