AFRM trade ideas
AFFIRM - is this still a good buy?
CNBC has reported recently the surge of AFFIRM shares after better-than-expected results as per the screenshot above.
AFFIRM (a buy now pay later business) has published some exciting highlights.
Let us look at their GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation in detail:
AFFIRM makes a profit in the most recent quarter by using non-GAAP measurements. Using the whole year results ending 30 June 2023, total revenue is $1.587B and total operating costs are $2.788B, representing an operating loss of $1.2B.
Yet through the lens of non-GAAP, the last quarter was profitable with $14.7M because non-GAAP does not include the costs of depreciation & amortization, stock-based compensation, enterprise warrant, restructuring and other costs. Going forward, I recommend all to focus more on the GAAP figures as that gives a better view of the financials. Creative accounting and business narratives can distract us from having a realistic view of the business.
The need to probe further into the financials is necessary so that we can better appreciate the financial fundamentals of the business. After 1 year, AFFIRM suffered a loss of $1.2B, compared to the loss of $0.866B from the same period a year ago.
Conclusion
Let us perform the due diligence necessary so that we can filter out great companies. It is possible that some of the media focus on certain good parts and omit other “necessary” portions.
No one should care more about our money than ourselves. The due diligence will be the leverage we have. Should the price plunge, this will give us the confidence to hold or buy even more.
Without good fundamentals, I recommend staying away.
NASDAQ:AFRM
August Trades (AFRM, account up 17.89%)11th day trade in August is NASDAQ:AFRM on 8/25/2023.
Account is up 17.89%.
Total return in August is 51.5%.
AFRM Can it continue the move after earnings ?AFRM jumped about 27% from a decent earnings beat on Thursday August 24th.
It is now sitting in the tip of a bullish pennant pattern and at the POC line of the
volume profile. The dual time frame RS indicator suggests strength is above 50
after the close of the week fade. The MACD lines crossing and above the horizontal
.
zero suggests this is simply a rest in bullish momentum Price is above then mean VWAP
and tracking one standard deviation above it. My trade plan is long or short depending
on how price moves off the POC line. I have drawn entry levels for a market or buy stop
order. The stop loss would be the opposite blue line. Targets start out at 19.5 and upside from
there.
AFRM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Support at 13.81 and Resistance at 19.99 in Rectangle formation
🔹Slightly risen above the resistance level of 17.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Affirm Potential Seen HereAffirm Potential Seen Here using the conventional studies showing an upside.
Using conventions of Head and Shoulders etc > Show there is a potential for an Upside.
Time will prove the Strategy.
Your thoughts and comments and critic's on my studies are welcome.
Lets Work Together.
Regards Graham. Invest.
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold AFRM here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 14.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-8-25,
for a premium of approximately $1.12.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Down to $12 -$13 before another leg up to +$20Here's what I see for AFRM. Although we're def. in an a up trend I think we're going to see a leg down to around $12 -$13 before it rips to $20. My long term outlook is at around $40 for AFRM. We have a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram which gives us a heads up in which direction the stock is about to move.
AFRM and UPSTThe price correlation between AFRM and UPST is 0.73, meaning the two stocks tend to move in the same direction. This is not surprising, as both companies are in the same industry (digital lending) and have similar business models. However, it is important to note that correlation does not equal causation, and there are other factors that could be affecting the price of these stocks.
For example, both AFRM and UPST have been affected by rising interest rates, making it more expensive for consumers to borrow money. This has led to a decline in both stocks' prices in recent months.
In addition, both companies are facing increased competition from traditional banks and other fintech companies. This could also put downward pressure on their stock prices in the future.
Overall, the price correlation between AFRM and UPST is relatively high, but it is important to consider other factors when making investment decisions.
Here are some other factors that could affect the price of AFRM and UPST:
Consumer spending
Economic growth
Regulatory changes
New product launches
Acquisitions
It is important to monitor these factors and their impact on AFRM and UPST stock prices.
AFRM | InformativeNASDAQ:AFRM
If the price of AFRM breaks above the bullish line of 17.33, it may indicate a bullish signal, suggesting potential upward price movement. In this scenario, the target prices could be set at 17.96 and 18.72.
Conversely, if the price of AFRM breaks below the bearish line of 16.11, it may suggest a bearish signal, implying potential downward price movement. In this case, the target prices could be set at 15.45, 14.79, 13.92, and 11.86.
*In addition to the provided information, I want to mention that personally, I hold a bearish outlook on AFRM. The stock was rejected at the EMA 200 on the daily chart, and a bearish engulfing candlestick has formed. These factors indicate a potential bearish price action in the near future.
AFRM - Sell off here would be bad
Another test of 200EMA and the G2R reversal today looks nasty. Won't read too much into it yet, but then I won't add more until daily action improves.
Even if it gets sold, there's a good support near 16. I'd be concerned below 13 though.
No need to panic yet.
AFRM LONG bouncing off support at 9 thru 18 R, target 27AFRM coming off lows, pushing through a channel to breakout
Affirm - Breaking throughHi everyone,
Affirm is seriously misspriced right now. Upstart has made a crazy run from the $12 bottom to $65 bucks now, while Affirm is barely $17. This pair used to be trading at almost the same price half a year ago and now the difference is crazy. Affirm will follow eventually Upstart to close the gap.
Affirm's partnership with Amazon can give us a nice boost on the next earnings report. Amazon had the best Prime Day recently, so we can assume that some of the revenue has went trough Affirm's BNPL service.
Affirm has a great cash position and has what it takes to wether the storm. The stock is super volatile usually, but has been caught in a headwind. When the $20 are broken, I am expecting wilder movements to $30 and then slowly to $40.
Good luck to all!
AFFIRM move to the upsideAffirm completely separate from UPST but I’ve been keeping these two together on my watchlist for sometime. I think we see AFFIRM have a solid 25%+ upside
Trading $AFRM to $30 with 20c exp 09.15Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Affirm Holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $15.54 with a high forecast of $24.00 and a low forecast of $9.00.
The upside prevails as long as $14.3 is its support.
Could AFRM rocket soon?Afrm seems to be headed higher after breaking out of descending wedge. This week will likely confirm if this is a true breakout. If breakout is confirmed my immediate price target would be $22.75 and after that target two would be between $47-$51. This trade is invalidated with a close back in the descending wedge.
$AFRM | Bull Flag BreakoutAFRM broke out of a bull flag, expecting further upside. Price may retest deeper around the $14.50 level, however longs remain valid as long as price does not break below $12.50
Target 1 $19
Target 2 $21
Invalidation $12.50
KIV Short: AFRM (30/6/23)KIV Short
0- Extreme greed. Market up but peaking.
1- Support ema20
2- Breakout downtrend line
3- Wait momentum candle <<
4- Wait volume candle
Risk $100/38 lots
Entry-14.9
SL-16.2
TP1- 12.3
AFRMall the bullish signs of AFRM
price broke above resistance
cross above ma200
pullback to retest resistance, now support
created uptrend channel
AFRM - Might squeeze soon
Got sold hard yesterday into the supply zone, despite good news, but that proved to be backtest of breakout level at 16, which was held and it got yesterday's gains back.
Two overhead levels to watch, first at 600DMA around 19-20. Second, is overhead supply at 22.
IMO yesterday's sell-off was test of 200DMA and today's PA tells us that bulls like the price even at that level, so 23 zone is a given. what happens there and how you react might be critical.
Ideal long trade was on 06/09 to buy at 16.5, but tomorrow might be another chance to add around 18. Then next stop will be 23 or 40
Factors favor bulls right now. I think this will soar high, but needs pitstops along the way.
Bear case: Rejection of 20 will test 16 again and then 14.
$AFRM Above all 3 moving averageNASDAQ:AFRM short squeeze, above all moving averages. The 20 day the 50 day and the 200 day moving average. Resistance at the horizontal line.
$AFRM Up As Market RecoversAfter the new integration of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM)’s pay-over-time technology in Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Pay, AFRM stock jumped more than 21% considering the potential revenue boost AFRM may receive from this deal. Meanwhile, the improving macroeconomic situation in the U.S. can help AFRM as Americans’ purchasing power increases again. With the stock already up nearly 80% YTD, AFRM stock appears to have a substantial upside in the long term.
AFRM Fundamentals
Amazon Pay Integration
Amazon Pay incorporating AFRM into its service is a significant step forward for AFRM since it will expose AFRM to a new set of customers and can see AFRM achieving a better conversion rate.
The new agreement will allow AFRM to capitalize on one of its strengths as AFRM has almost no user acquisition costs. It is up to merchants to promote its product in the hopes of converting shoppers into buyers and with more traders having access to AFRM more customers will be aware of it.
Improving Macroeconomics
With expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes, the macroeconomic prospects in the US are looking to improve. While macroeconomic improvements will benefit the whole market, AFRM and other “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services are set to benefit the most since customers’ purchasing power will increase.
AFRM is also partnering with Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) to build a first-of-its-kind credit scoring model that would enable buy now, pay later loans to be consistently and transparently factored into credit and lending decisions.
Institutional Ownership
It is also worth noting that AFRM stock has high institutional ownership of more than 80%, which indicates that AFRM is on the right path. Given these institutions’ confidence in the company’s prospects and with the improving macro environment, AFRM stock could be poised to continue running this year.
Short Data
Furthermore, there is also a chance of a short squeeze happening as AFRM stock has a short interest rate of 23% and 32% of its float on loan. This can result in the AFRM stock price soaring as the short sellers might be forced to cover their short positions especially since AFRM stock is almost 80% up YTD.
AFRM Financials
In its Q3 2023 report, AFRM’s assets increased 8% QoQ from $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents increased 30% QoQ from $972 million to $1,255 million. AFRM’s total liabilities increased by 16% QoQ from $4.3 billion to $5 billion.
Revenue also increased 7% YoY from $354 million to $380 million. Operating costs increased almost 18% from $581 million to $691 million, which contributed to the operating loss increase of 37% YoY from $226 million to $310 million, which amounted to a net loss of $205 million – a 279% increase YoY.
Technical Analysis
AFRM stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel within a sideways channel between $9.16 and $15.24. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, RSI is neutral at 50 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, AFRM just witnessed a catalyst in the new Amazon Pay integration which could boost AFRM’s revenues significantly. With the macro environment improving in the US, AFRM stock could further run especially as more consumers regain their purchasing power.
AFRM Forecast
With the macroeconomic situation improving in the US, AFRM and other BNPL services are looking to thrive as their customers’ purchasing power increases. Furthermore, AFRM has high institutional ownership which may indicate that AFRM stock is currently in a good position. AFRM stock is certainly a stock to keep an eye on, especially since its high short interest rate makes it a strong short squeeze candidate.
