1F trade ideas
When a trade is reverses fortune and you wonder what went wrongLets say you have a trade opened & its profitable. all going to plan. then you get greedy. over boastful of your legendary trading skills. you ignore the original trade plan, you devise a better plan to accumulate more profit. you dont respect your previous profit Targets, & you keep the trade running, eventually you becoming forgetful of the market nature & trading. The market turns against you & you are left wondering what went wrong. Has this type of trade ever happened to you? it happened to me
Trade Idea: Buy Ford Motor Co. (F)Ford Long? $17.80
1. 200-day test and hold
2. Gap close + gap on the upside
3. Lower boundary of 200-period linear regression channel
4. 7-day RSI bullish divergence
Stop: $16.25
Target: $20.20
Khans Watchlist - 02/23/22 - $FLot^s of Bullish LEAPS-Inflow and a nice gap above the current price. With the current Pre-Market Sentiment it could skip over the bottom re-test of the wedge and head upwards.
Ford coming to our buy zoneFord is looking attractive to me enough to buy some calls expiring 30+ days out.
F - Symmetrical Triangle Breaking Down Price broke below support at the lower end of the symmetrical triangle yesterday. It proceeded to retest, reject, and bounce off the level today confirming a breakdown. We could see a short term down trend in price in coming weeks, especially concerning negative market sentiment with a war brewing in Ukraine. Price target #1 is $16.60 and price target #2 is 15.40, both levels where support could potentially come in. Place a stop loss at $17.60.
Ford Motor CompanyFord Motor Company is an American multinational automobile manufacturer headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, United States. It was founded by Henry Ford and incorporated on June 16, 1903. The company sells automobiles and commercial vehicles under the Ford brand, and luxury cars under its Lincoln luxury brand
Bullish On $F overallLooking for a retest that the support before a bullish move is made. Got 3 potential target zones.
A walk down Ford's EV evolutionNYSE:F
In regards to the chart - Leaving this here mainly as a visual in order to build upon a more expansive EV map throughout the year in 2022.
Continued information outside what is represented on the chart image:
A bit more history for those who are interested...time to step back to eh EV world in the 1800's......
Did you know Henry Ford was friends with Thomas Edison? Yes! In fact Mr. Ford was well aware that Thomas Edison had made an attempt to engineer battery technology for automobiles in the early 1900's. In 1884, Edison began a journey which was met with many denied patents and even lab explosions. He had discovered what was in essence early fuel cell technology based on the catalytic oxidation of carbon. By 1899 Edison, ONLY 4 years after the introduction of feasible gasoline based autos, his efforts were ramped up. Edison's belief was founded in the idea that EV technology could one day prove "more economical" than ICE counterparts. A battery with longer life, means to recharge, powerful enough to travel large distance, and light enough as to not be inefficient while supporting its own system.
1903- The newly established Edison Storage Battery Company was set to manufacture and sell "nickel-iron cells" and started to promote them for commercialization in transportation. This same year, Henry Ford made is 3rd attempt at starting a company - this time naming it Ford Motor Company.
1908 - Henry Ford introduces the Model T. Between 1908-1927 more than 15 million were produced. Was this poor timing on Edison's part to try and push EV tech on the world? The ICE age was born, America was captivated by the Model T. At this point in time ICE systems were much much more efficient than any EV tech that Edison had produced.
Remember when I said Ford and Edison were friends? Well, Ford had worked his way to the position of chief operating engineer of the Edison Illuminating Company. Yes, Ford worked for Edison. A shared passion for innovation was their link.
1914- In the year prior over 180,000 units sold of the Model T only to be beat in 14' by over 250,000. Even while experiencing WILD success with the Model T during this time the NY Times quoted Mr. Ford by saying “Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile,” in January 1914. “The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging.” This is the same ideal and principle Edison sought after to solve.
May 1914 - Mr. Ford said, “It’s coming.” And he was proclaiming an EV revolution in the works. “The electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future.” During this time Henry Ford’s wife Clara drove an 80-mile ranged 1914 Detroit Electric and was an early EV advocate.
When ICE systems started replacing hand-cranks with electric-starter devices, the EV world at this time was stricken of a key selling point: ease of use. Unlike ICE at the time that needed to be started with a hand-crank, battery-powered automobiles didn’t take a lot of muscle to operate. The culprit to this was GM's Charles Franklin Kettering as he created the first electric starter for the ICE system in 1912, thus negating a big sore thumb (the crank start) for the ICE makers.
After $1.5M investment into the EV idea by Ford, it was shelved until about the 1950's when battery technology was once again starting to be a focus of auto makers.
1960's - Environmentalism swept America. "Congress passed laws that served as significant precedents for future legislative action on pollution issues—for instance, the Clean Air Acts of 1963 and 1967, the Clean Water Act of 1960, and the Water Quality Act of 1965. During the 1960s, environmentalism became a mass social movement" . The Wall Street Journal reported in October 1966 that Ford Motor Co. made a “major breakthrough in battery research.” The company claimed that its new batteries – using sodium-sulfur chemistry instead of lead acid – could store 15 times more energy than before.
1968- Ford said that road testing of a new production electric car would begin. "Small motors might be mounted in the wheels." with its experimental all-electric Comuta minicar.
This EV tech gave the user four 12-volt batteries that provided about 40 miles of range topped at 35 miles per hour.
Environmentalism never died - it slowly grew as a movement until the 1990's and early 2000's when California really drove zero-emissions.
1999 - Fords invests $23 million to buy Think Global - a Norwegian EV company that had been around since 91'. After $100 million in battery development Ford began production of Think City - a 53 mile ranged lightweight 2 passenger car with a top speed of 55 mph. Unfortunately Ford gave this up in 2002 as they wanted to divert resources to the commercial end of the company.
1998-2002 - The EV ranger (and its coming back "rumors" after exciting) - this dream was crushed by the laxing of the California ZEV mandates. Most of these trucks (only 1500 produced) were destroyed by Ford and never got out to the publics hands.
In the 2000's Toyota made a big splash with the Prius - a hybrid EV ICE system that captivated consumers. Ford's response after (sitting back and watching consumer reaction - this is key*) was to use the Focus platform for the fully EV car. "The EV variant, which went into production by 2011, used a 23 kilowatt-hour battery pack officially rated to provide 76 miles of range.
When it was introduced, the Focus Electric was the only pure EV that looked and drove like a so-called normal car."...."Even as Ford increased the size of the battery in 2017 to 33.5 kilowatt-hours – expanding its range to 115 miles – the Focus Electric was an also-ran. All told, Ford sold about 9,300 units before the company killed the Focus Electric (and most of its cars) in April 2018."
Fast forward through the hybrid era, we get to 2018 when Ford released an image for the first vehicle to be produced in the company’s new EV era. The profile of a Mustang-inspired 300-mile electric SUV was a huge step forward into the transition to EV by an ICE auto maker.
2019 - "DEARBORN, Mich., April 24, 2019 – Rivian today announced an equity investment of $500 million from Ford Motor Company. In addition to the investment, the companies have agreed to work together to develop an all-new, next-generation battery electric vehicle for Ford’s growing EV portfolio using Rivian’s skateboard platform."
TLDR:
Lets ask a question: Is Ford really as behind the curve to EV as we are led to believe? IMO ABSOLUTELY NOT. Ford, since DAY 1 has always known this era would come. It is not a surprise at all. In fact, I truly believe it a welcomed transition - a 120 year long process gives you A LOT of time to build ideas on.....
All sources are recorded and can be sent if requested ( I cannot post a list of all 22 hyperlinks here)
Buy Ford (F) at 17.4$-17.5$ to target 19$-19.5$Buy Ford at market (probably17.4$-17.5$ range) than w8 some days to sell at 19$-19.5$
Ford seems to be finding a bottomFord Motor Company F
Areas of interest:
Consolidation:
1) $19-20.50
2) 17.52-18.59
Breakup at $21.50
Breakdown at $16.49
Recent overhead gap between $18.46-19.89
Reversal candles seem to be appearing in the lower consolidation zone (2) on the 3 day chart - almost looking like an inverted hammer but not enough wick to truly label them as such.
Indicators show us on the 3 DAY chart:
Currently trading below the 12 and 26 EMA
The 12 is above the 26 but appear to be attempting to cross soon if bears take control and push the stock price below consolidation 2 (listed above)
Currently trading above the 50 MA
The 50 MA recently has acted as support and seems to have help stabilize the stocks price into consolidation for the past 1.5 weeks of trading
Observations from a bull and bear side:
As a bull, I (obviously) want to see the 50 MA hold and to see divergence of the 12 and 26 EMA (to the upside) to shake any fears of a potential cross under (12 under 26). Recapturing $19 would be my first target. A break and hold of this level will signify an attempt by the buyers to send the price of Ford back to its consolidation zone. This is needed in order for Ford to breakout and create NEW structure. The previous attempt was rejected as the price moved too fast to levels not seen in 20 years. Remember, there is such thing as a 20 year bag holder. Employees, insiders, investors, retail, shorts, etc. A blue chip company like this needs to gradually climb, in stairstep manor, creating small consolidation periods where the market accepts small movements one at a time. That said, I would love to see Ford make use of its previous consolidation zone to prep for the next level. In my opinion, this would be $21.50-22.50.
As a bear, a break below the 50 MA while considering the breakdown level of $16.73 should be watched. A break below 16.49 would potentially send Ford down to it's PREVIOUS structure between $12.38-16.49. I want to highlight this only to prep for the potential this could happen -imo it is unlikely unless the entire market continues to slide further into a true recession/crash. For this fact alone, either selling covered calls at this breakdown level or buying puts would be a good way for Ford longs to fight against this scenario.
Most recent news - I will makes this as UNBIASED as possible:
1. (RUMOR) - "Ford is considering separating its electric vehicle business from its legacy operations, Bloomberg reported Friday."
www.thestreet.com
2. (Heavy Bullish Opinion Piece) - "The legacy automaker has copied from its great rival a method which makes it possible to have updated cars regularly and to reduce costs."
www.thestreet.com
3. (Bearish Facts, sorry Bulls) - "New Broncos Are Reportedly Sitting Undelivered Due to Chip Shortage"
www.roadandtrack.com
4. (Interesting way to approach safety) - "Ford’s latest road safety idea? In-car sounds of pedestrians and bike bells"
road.cc
5. (Counter to #1) - "“We have no plans to spin off our battery electric-vehicle business or our traditional ICE business.”
www.barrons.com
6. (Consumer Report top EV pick awarded to Ford) "Ford Mustang Mach-E Is Consumer Reports' EV Top Pick. The Tesla Model 3 won the award for the last two consecutive years."
insideevs.com
7. (DON'T count out NASCAR, man) www.nascar.com
8. (New turbocharged inline-4 SUV) - www.motorauthority.com
9. (Not sure how this will play out, probably BAD PR tbh) - "Ford says it's working with unvaccinated salaried employees before rolling out unpaid leave plan"
www.wxyz.com
10. (Ford building new plants) -
www.autonews.com
11. (Fords push to EV and battery solutions) - "Ford, Volvo join Redwood in EV battery recycling push in California" www.reuters.com
Ford Chart Looks Bullish as long as the channel holdsClean bounce in the past on the channel lines. I think its the same this time as well. CMF is turning into +ve territory which looks prime for a bounce at these levels. MACD seems to be reversing at this moment. The stock price is sitting on the 200 EMA line. Overall the technicals favor an upside. Fundamentals are strong as seen in the latest quarter, Recent news are all +ve. For example the news related to Mach-E beating Tesla's Model 3 in the Consumer's Report - Top electric vehicle for 2022. And finally Mgt is rock solid here and Jim Farley at helm makes this a sold auto stock to own.
Disclaimer; My opinion on stocks are mine alone and not to be taken as Investment advice.
FORD Potential Double Top Forming 4hr ChartFord is Trading under the 200 MA and is forming a second Double Top in 2 weeks. The FED has an Emergency meeting this afternoon. I'm expecting the market as a whole to have bearish sentiment afternoon.
If Ford reaches my target resistance zone I will be placing PUTS
(2 weeks EXP at $15.50 strike)
$F which one of these gaps are we filling first, boys?Bull gap BELOW current SP - 6.3 pips 15.92 ; 16.55
Bear gap ABOVE current SP - 12.4 pips 18.63 ; 19.87
Personally, I am bearish short term, expecting to kiss that lower gap and possibly fill it before a potential bounce back to the upside.
Possible Wyckoff Distribution setup was forming on 1D prior to earnings.
Personally took a puts gamble on earnings. I have been following $F for some time now and the strength of the stock was obviously slowing. (Not to mention Cramer was pumping it lol)
Hasn't had much legs since pumping and retracing quickly back to consolidation/support zone which was then lost on a big gap down after most recent earnings.
Which way do you think she's heading?
As always, manage your risk and GOOD LUCK!
Not advice just insight*
$F Put from 2/08/2022After Ford's earnings I came to the conclusion that it would begin to drop. My intended target was below 17; however, the market had other plans shooting it to 18 and so forth. Option expiry is this Friday and news continues to break between the potential war Ford is due for a correction. Based off the chart although poorly depicted we had a period of consolidation then broke out. Unable to sustain new highs it fell passed the yellow trend line and broke pass multiple gaps. It's possible to potentially bottoms out at 17.02 support but the corrective wave i'm seeing could take it lower since the second leg is typically the longest.
Ford two Major Support LevelsGreetings everyone,
let us take a look at the daily chart of Ford, which is currently in correction, after it misses Q4 results and, also, this week seems that a couple of production lines might be idling, due to chip shortage.
Per my opinion - and by the gods DO your own research, as this idea is clearly for entertaining, educational, and informative reasons, only, and it is not financial advice and I can't be held responsible for any loss or profits!
The first major support might be around $16,50, as it can hold the pressure and renounce to test EMA(20), or around $13 to renounce and test the previous level (of $16,50)
Risky right now, as the direction I not clear, but I am confident for those two levels...
Keep safe, keep real
please like/share/comment
Thank you
ShortThe stock has broken through the support level and there is no sign of a reversal. In this connection there is a possibility of shorting to the nearest level.
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Ford's Rent is DueThe RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence on the RSI. As we see on the daily, there are three lower highs on the RSI combined with higher highs in price action. This is bearish. We also see overextensions on the weekly and monthly RSI. Moving averages have not been catching up which suggests there will at least be a correction to them and they will be tested as support levels. Volume indicates that Ford is going to tank though because there is a high amount of selling pressure at these levels. Even though Ford is green, earnings are around the corner and my guess is that even if there is a beat there will nonetheless be a tank. Any good news has been priced in. Bad news would tank the stock even more. In short, RSI suggests a major downtrend beginning shortly. Volume spikes support this idea. Moving averages also suggest a correction is coming. Ford has failed to overcome a 24.95 price level as well on the shorter timeframes. Let's also remember how overextended the broader market is and how tethered it has become to the indexes doing well. All of the indexes have been recovering a little bit but that does not mean Ford will do well. DYODD. This is only my idea not financial advice.
Also: this is pretty much just TA. I did not look at Ford's financials but I imagine they're not doing great because most car companies are not very good financially. Demand for cars is probably not going to be good. There's too much hype in the auto space and the cost to transition to EVs will be immense. Tesla did not just switch the lights on and neither will Ford.
I anticipate a bounce at a large consolidation level. That is the horizontal line.
