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LUNAUSDT trade ideas

RSI & Fib analysis on LunaLast time the daily RSI was this low was late May 2021 when we retraced to 0.786 of the prior run, finding support here until going on an epic 2000% run over 10 months. Following yesterday's red candle we've bounced off the 0.786 fib of the retracement from said run, which coincides with a trend line I've had drawn in since this time last year. Reversing the first fib shows we reached just above the 5.272 at it's peak. Doing the same on the latest fib gives us a target of $614! Short term I expect a bounce to around $50. Will be keeping a close eye to see if we hold .786 and form bullish divergence
Long
by SlumberJack92
LUNA - Understanding the Lunatic Drop 👇🧵Trying to find the explanation of what went SO wrong with Luna i found the best possible explanation here : $UST fell to a low of $0.66 while $LUNA crashed to a low of $24.85 overnight. Lessons learned from $LUNA $UST disastrous collapse 👇🧵 But let's assess what actually happened. - $UST deposits on Anchor fell 43% in a day (currently $6.7bn) - $UST getting massively shorted + sell-off on Curve - LFG emptied out all its reserves to save the peg - Rumours that Citadel engineered the attack / Lesson 1: Death Spiral Illustrated perfectly by @ZeMariaMacedo , the design of $LUNA $UST is a giant positive feedback loop. This was the "flywheel effect" that everyone's talking about but very few actually viewed it as a double edged sword. A design that has a tendency to spiral out of control, even if it is to the upside, is a fundamental flaw. Most positive feedback loops are bad, be it in biology or engineering. Don't get caught up in the buzzwords like "flywheel effect" esp when things seem rosy. Lesson 2: Arbitrageurs can stop arb-ing $UST peg is maintained by: - Arbitrage - @stablekwon & LFG's deep pockets If $UST falls below $1 (e.g. $0.95), arbitrageurs buy $UST for $0.95, redeem the $UST and mint $1 worth of $LUNA. Profit = $0.05, $UST supply falls, $UST --> $1 But if $LUNA is in a prolonged downturn, the risk of holding onto $LUNA after minting is high. The arb profit might get wiped after minting $LUNA as $LUNA price keeps dropping, hence arbitrageurs might abstain and choose to chill instead --> stabilization mechanism fails Lesson 3: Over-reliance on Do Kwon & LFG Crypto is built on the ethos of being independent of trusted third parties. If $UST relies on the aggressive, interventionist measures of centralized entities like Do Kwon & LFG, how is it scalable? Imagine maintaining a peg by having the founder pump in capital each time shit goes south? Everything about Terra operates off the back of exogenous capital injection. Even Anchor's 20% APY relies heavily on the yield reserve top ups instead of revenue earned from lending. The idea that Terra is too big to fail is very dangerous and it's why many diehard $LUNA maxis got burned today. It's a house of card built entirely on trust, in a supposedly trustless space. Lesson 4: Cult Heroes Cult heroes in crypto have the same ending. Daniele Sesta and Frog Nation. Andre Cronje and $FTM community. Do Kwon is next... He is a great guy don't get me wrong, but never all-in your trust in a cult hero and invest on people Lesson 5: Stablecoin Designs Seems like pure-play algo stablecoins can't withstand the heat. Over-collateralized stablecoins are icky cuz they're like loans instead of currency and have a massive capital utilization problem. A hybrid model might be it... @fraxfinance Lesson 6: LFG Reserves Transparency LFG is transparent about the size of its reserves and you can track their wallets in real time. Central banks usually avoid disclosing the size of their forex reserves e.g. Singapore or they release lagged data Conclusion: A lot of trust has been lost today. It really goes to show the importance of a sound, self-sustaining system beneath the veneer of marketing gimmicks. Can $UST and $LUNA rise again? Definitely. But A LOT of work is needed to fix the fundamental design flaws.
by FX_Professor
65
LUNAUSDTHello Crypto Lovers, Mars Signals team wishes you high profits. This is a one-day-time frame analysis for LUNAUSDT You are observing a heavy fall for the price after it lost its support. At the present, it is approaching the first support line and we believe it will have a fluctuation at this area. Then we expect a rise for the price. Warning: This is just a suggestion and we do not guarantee profits. We advise you analyze the chart before opening any position. Wish you luck
by MarsSignals