Buy buyI dont know if its true or not . Ive just started wave analysis course
Will follow the chart to check the reason
JPYUSD trade ideas
Japanese yen declines on BoJ’s Ueda cautious remarksThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.08, up 0.51% on the day.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sent mixed signals about a rate hike in December, leaving investors unclear and sending the yen lower against the US dollar. Ueda said that the timing of a rate hike depended on economic conditions. He noted that there was progress towards sustained inflation from higher wages and consumption, but warned that there were “numerous uncertainties” that the Bank would have to monitor, such as the impact of President-elect Trump’s economic policies. Ueda said that the central bank wouldn’t wait for all uncertainties to clear up before a hike and that the timing would depend on the “economic, price and financial outlook”.
The lack of clarity from Ueda wasn’t all that surprising as the BoJ is not transparent with its rate plans, which results in strong volatility whenever the BoJ makes a rate move. Ueda’s comments didn’t change market expectations, as the pricing of a rate hike in December is around 55%. A strong rise in inflation or a significant decline in the yen would support a rate hike at the December meeting.
The week ended on a positive note as US retail sales were better than expected in October. Retail sales rose 0.4% m/m, better than the market estimate of 0.3% and the September reading was revised from 0.4% to 0.8%. Annually, retail sales posted a strong gain of 2.8%, up from an upwardly revised gain of 1% in September and blowing past the forecast of 1.9%.
The strong data for September and October has lowered the odds of a rate cut in December, which are currently around 60%. On Thursday, prior to the retail sales report, Fed Chair Powell said that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 156.07. The next resistance line is 157.86
154.97 and 153.18 are the next support levels
4-hr USD/JPY: Up Trend Continuation
USD/JPY is showing a solid uptrend, highlighted by strong bullish momentum confirmed by the appearance of a Golden Cross, where the 20 MA has crossed above the 60 MA. This is a strong technical indicator suggesting the continuation of upward movement. Recently, the pair experienced a significant correction of 240 pips, but found strong support at the 154.00 level, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement — a key level often watched by traders for potential reversals. Following this support test, the currency pair has resumed its bullish trajectory, underpinned by increasing trading volumes. The outlook now points towards a likely retest of the recent peak at 156.40, suggesting potential for further upside gains. Additionally, the 30-minute chart confirms this positive sentiment by displaying another Golden Cross pattern, reinforcing the buying signal. This combination of signals across different timeframes indicates that the trend remains firmly intact with strong momentum on the buyer’s side.
USDJPYUSDJPY
Rising Wedge as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
RSI - Divergence
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Demand Zone
Change of Characteristics
USDJPYUSDJPY
Rising Wedge as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
RSI - Divergence
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Demand Zone
Change of Characteristics
NEW IDEA FOR USDJPY USD/JPY has an important support range in the range of 154.02-153.38, and if it holds, an increase to the channel ceiling resistance in the range of 158.08 is expected.
USD/ JPY buy opportunity.
Trade opportunity is there with inline with bullish momentum of the market , the price as expected has come down to a premium area of the overall 4hr swing of the market.
opportunity is seen as the price when reached the area of 4hr supply rejected immediately giving us the strong confluence of valid area for supply, a fractal structure followed by COCh ( change of character can be seen after , much clearer on 1hr TF.
which gives us a good opportunity to trade after retest of the fractal area .
trend is your friend.
risk management is key
USDJPY.. Bottom out here? What's next??#USDJPY... Market is going to bottom out here and looking very aggressive.
Keep close the day low and if market hold it in that that case you can see a further bounce from here.
Stay sharp guys.
Good luck
Trade wisely
USDJPY wants to move higher with yields Intraday Update: US10yr yields are moving back to resistance and the USDJPY is bouncing following Ueda's "not to much of a rush to raise rates in December" comments in Asia overnight, which may allow for the USDJPY to reach for the 155.60's in the coming day.
UPDATE ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - If you didn't watch this weeks Sunday Sessions video then you will probably have missed out on this trading opportunity but as you can see price has played out perfectly.
I wanted to see price correct itself putting in some bullish structure to trade us up and into the Supply Zone above, giving us the opportunity to go short in this market with the longer term bias.
This trade is currently running + 79 pips. (+ 5%) 5RR
This meant we could have looked to go long before we went short, taking advantage of this corrective wave before price goes on to put on the new bearish leg. As you can see price is approaching this area of Supply.
Once we see price penetrate this area, I will then be looking for reasonable confirmation in order to enter in short, we will want to see some kind of structure break to suggest the end of the correction and the start of the next impulse taking us lower.
USD/JPY Confronts Key Short-Term ResistanceMarket Overview
On Monday, November 18, USD/JPY continues its upward climb as the dollar is strengthening against the yen. This move reflects a mixed market reaction to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda. While Ueda hinted at potential tightening, his hesitation to commit to a specific timeline left traders uncertain. This hesitation limited the short-term confidence in the yen. The market currently prices a 54% probability of a rate hike by the BoJ in December. However, this uncertainty leaves the yen vulnerable, especially as market participants consider the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potential strength of the dollar.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart for USD/JPY, the price bounced after testing a one-month ascending trendline, which acted as a strong support, preventing further declines. The bounce, followed by a break above the key resistance at 154.744, which coincides with the 34-period moving average, reinforced the bullish scenario. The price remains above this moving average, indicating stronger upward momentum. If it stays above this level, the primary scenario remains bullish. However, this level may now act as a support, and any retreat will see traders closely watching reactions around this area.
Further resistance levels include Fibonacci extensions at 127.2% (154.993), 161.8% (155.309), 200.0% (155.658), and 241.4% (156.036).
If USD/JPY fails to sustain above the 154.744 level and selling pressure intensifies, the price could pull back towards the Fibonacci 61.8% support at 154.395 and eventually test the key support at 153.830.
Buy OpportunityPotential Trade Setup:
Long Position: The analysis suggests a buying opportunity as the price bounces off a strong support zone (154.60).
Entry: Around the current price level of 154.61.
Stop Loss: Placed below the support at 153.50, allowing for some buffer in case of a false breakout.
Take Profit: The target is set at 157.63, which represents a 1.95% upside from the current level.
Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup appears favorable with a potential 3-point move to the upside.
Analysis Breakdown:
Current Price Action:
USD/JPY is currently trading around 154.61, showing a recent pullback after a strong uptrend.
There is a visible bounce from a support area, suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Volume Profile:
The volume profile highlights areas of significant trading activity. The strongest volume node is observed at the 154.60 level, indicating a potential support zone where buyers may step in.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support is at 154.60, which aligns with the current price level. Below this, additional support can be seen at 153.50 and 152.23.
Resistance: Key resistance levels are identified at 156.58 and 157.67, with the final take-profit target set at 157.63.
Squeeze Momentum Indicator:
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is showing green histogram bars, indicating a bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars have started to shrink, suggesting a potential temporary pullback or consolidation.
USDJPYUSDJPY . Potential long opportunity.
After USDJPY has made its correction down to the trend line , the pair is still following the structure and still remains bullish . While USD is still “the best performing currency” at the moment, we can also take that into consideration for the bull move we are anticipating. If our SL is hit, the pair would be breaking structure and make deeper pullbacks in the price. Our SL (Stop Loss) is sitting at 153.758 . An important KL (Key Level) we have to look at is 155.626 . If the KL is broken to the upside, we would see our TP (Take Profit) hit, which is sitting at 157.865 .
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 154.815
- SL: 153.758
- TP: 157.865
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY made it’s pullback down to our trend line.
- Breaks below our SL would result in lower lows.
- Breaks above our KL would result in higher prices and hitting our TP.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
USDJPY little buyH4 shows it's prepped for a downswing but from the 1h chart it seems like price has to move up to retest the previous highs on the H4 and consolidate before shooting down.
I predict that price might have to rise to 155.522 or 156.427
trail stopping every hour would be safe in case it swings back down
London Session Focus: USDJPY Momentum & Potential AUDUSD BuyThis morning during the London session, my primary focus is on the USDJPY. We anticipate a momentum low developing below the current price level.
Additionally, the AUDUSD has flagged a potential buying opportunity around the 0.6450 level.
The EURUSD and GBPUSD (Cable) are also showing potential for bullish moves; however, their price structures are currently less defined than those of the above-mentioned pairs.
Trade wisely and happy trading!
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid !USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Safe-Haven Yen Demand and Softer U.S. Dollar 18/11/2024
Introduction
The USDJPY pair is anticipated to maintain a slight bearish bias today, driven by ongoing demand for the Japanese yen (JPY) as a safe-haven currency and a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. This article delves into the fundamental factors and technical indicators shaping today’s USDJPY market outlook, offering actionable insights for traders.
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Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today
1. Safe-Haven Demand for the Japanese Yen
The yen continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven currency amid geopolitical uncertainties and mixed global economic data. Recent concerns surrounding global economic growth and risk aversion have increased demand for JPY, which strengthens its position against the U.S. dollar. As a result, safe-haven flows are contributing to USDJPY’s bearish bias.
2. Weakening U.S. Dollar Amid Dovish Federal Reserve
The U.S. dollar has softened as the Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach to further interest rate hikes. Recent inflation data and moderate employment figures have led to expectations of a prolonged pause in rate adjustments. This dovish tone diminishes the USD’s attractiveness, pressuring USDJPY downward.
3. Bank of Japan’s Stable Policy Approach
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained a dovish stance but remains consistent in its messaging. The BoJ’s approach, coupled with recent market speculation about potential tweaks in policy should inflation rise sustainably, has supported the yen. This has added to USDJPY’s downward pressure as traders favor the stability and potential yield in the JPY.
4. Technical Indicators Pointing to a Bearish Trend
USDJPY is trading below its 50-day moving average, and momentum indicators such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are showing bearish signals. This alignment of technical factors supports the bearish bias in the pair for today’s trading session.
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Technical Analysis Indicators
Moving Averages and RSI
USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, signaling continued downward momentum. The RSI is trending lower, though it has yet to reach oversold levels, suggesting further potential for declines.
MACD and Volume Analysis
The MACD is showing a bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum. Volume trends also indicate increased selling pressure, aligning with the expectation of a slight bearish bias today.
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Conclusion
With safe-haven demand for the yen, a dovish Federal Reserve weighing on the U.S. dollar, and bearish technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should remain vigilant for unexpected market events or economic data releases that could influence the pair’s trajectory.
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A SELL ON USDJPY!In todays analysis , we’re looking forward to selling UJ. Price has a tendency to drop on a short term. Our sell target is 151.525 Stop loss is placed at 156.796
30-mins USD/JPY: 260 pips Drop to Trigger Trend Reversal? Since Friday, the USD/JPY currency pair has experienced a significant drop of over 200 pips, indicating that bearish forces are currently in control of the market. This decline aligns with a classic technical indicator known as the "Death Cross," where the 20-period moving average (MA) crosses below the 60-period MA, signaling strong downward momentum.
Late on Friday and into the early hours of Monday, the pair attempted a recovery, pulling back to retest the key resistance level around 155.20, which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Despite this brief correction, aggressive selling pressure soon resumed, leading to an additional decline of approximately 80 pips. The sharp rejection at the 155.20 mark suggests that it may serve as a significant resistance level going forward.
If this resistance holds, it is likely that the bearish trend will continue, potentially pushing the pair further downward by an additional 50 to 100 pips. Market sentiment remains negative, with sellers dominating the action and aiming for new lows in the near term. Traders should monitor this critical zone closely, as a sustained break below recent support levels could trigger another wave of selling pressure, amplifying the downtrend. Conversely, any sustained buying activity above the 155.20 area might suggest a potential reversal,
Read The USDJPY MarketLet's Look at USDJPY Chart and Read the Price Action to find some trade opportunities, Good Luck With Your Trades <3
USDJPY FORECASTTraders! We have started the week with a good momentum. The market is looking very good as structures has started to shape up, so guys! It is the matter of waiting for the key areas and see how the market will allow us to get into it.
USD/ JPY ! 11/14 ! JPY value will increaseUSDJPY trend forecast November 14, 2024
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, helping USD/JPY reach the 156.00 level for the first time since July 23, supported by a strong US Dollar (USD). Market sentiment suggests Japan’s political climate may hinder the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from further tightening its policy, which weakens the JPY. Additionally, worries about potential trade tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump add further pressure on the Yen.
The dollar is benefiting from the new president trump FOMO, but it is cooling down soon.
The Japanese yen also has new moves with the new prime minister, helping the value of the Japanese yen increase further.
/// SELL USD/JPY : zone 156.100 - 156.400
SL: 156.700
TP: 40 - 100 - 200 pips (154.400)
Safe and profitable trading
USDJPY H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at155.63, which is a pullback resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 153.73, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be at 156.84, a swing high resistance level.
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USD/JPYThis is how my analysis for the new week starts, usd/jpy has started a bearish movement on confirmation, this zone is a very favorable zone for us to enter with a small risk.
