USDOLLAR / DXY : Operating monthly rangeDXY has trapped buyers and sellers on bottom and top of the monthly chart. This might become an operating range for next few months!
DX1! trade ideas
The rally has only started. Wyckoff accumulation + fundamentalsAs we expected American Dollar rallied last week. The price forms Wyckoff accumulation on a daily chart. It makes sense to look for new entries when the short-term oscillator gets oversold. I got so many questions last week about DXY and most of them were like – ‘Why do you expect a rally if US data is so weak?’. Well, the dollar is not just a currency, it is a safe haven. Besides, it is undervalued, unlike gold. We still have a lot of risks related to coronavirus and its impact on the economy. It can trigger a significant rally in DX. Besides, there is a strong setup in this market:
The weekly pinch-paunch indicator is 58 (a sign of trend change)
The valuation model – undervalued
COT – bullish
Intermarket forecast – bullish
Seasonal – bottom at the beginning of October
With that in mind, we want to look for and take buy signals using any trading entries.
USD (vs. the World) DXY; Massive LONG!!This is the Weekly chart on the DXY, indicating what's probably the biggest USD LONG on this side of the Century!
- Every single commodity is telling you the USD is about to rise!
- Every equity market is telling you the USD is about to sky rocket!
- Everything tradable is telling you the exact same story: The USD is about to blow the roof off!
Just how many more clues does one really need??... :-)
(... and BTW, Gartleys are super quick so if you snooze, you lose!)
US DollarIf it can break 93.75 area it will do a lot of damage to commodities, metals and equities. Remember, each of those in the futures market is a spread against the USD.
The rise of the Almighty United States Dollar is hereAs the title suggest we are seeing the early signs of trend reversal of the dollar index. Eversince the low of 91.7 basis points earlier this month price has been pumping making higher highs and higher lows. Whereas commodities, stocks and crypto have started their decline
If the DXY manages to break 93 it will be game over for everything. All the more when the index breaks the red descending channel.
Expect massive rise of the index to 99-101 basis points at a minimum and with it the great deflation of the asset bubble (stocks , commodities, bitcoin)
No one can stop the selling of the inversely correlated assets , not even the FED
YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
US DollarBig players are winding down shorts. Four pushes down so far. One more or will we reverse from 92?
DXY H4ITS THE OPPOSITE SCENARIO HERE ON THE DOLLAR INDEX....WE CAN SEE THAT DOUBLE TOP...LETS SEE IF PRICE COMPLETES THE PATTERN THEN WELL TAKE A SELL TRADE
10 Years Trend LineDX hit the 10 Years Trend Line few days ago, expecting a huge support at this point. If downtrend is breakthrough, likely to have a huge adjustment in stocks and index.
US Dollar at Yearly S2If this bottom holds, it means reversals for most other assets - currencies, commodities, metals and equities. Treasuries may have an upside as well.
The USD Index has a bullish divergence...Appears to have based out on the support and MACD is giving a heads up that it is bullishly divergent, waiting for a breakout soon.
The second downtrending line should be broken soon, and then a higher high made.
Watch for it...
We are close to entry point in dollar. ExplainedWe have discussed previously a potential rally in the American dollar. Now we are getting really close to the potential entry. However, accumulation is weak. That means it will take another week or two to get a signal. Accumulation builds momentum. That’s why it is so important. We have very strong fundamental setup for DXY rally:
COT – commercials are heavily long
Evaluation model – the dollar is undervalued
COTSI Index – very high
Intermarket forecast – upside.
We need a technical signal to confirm the coming rally. It always takes some time to get one once we have a fundamental setup. So, likely we will see a bit more of a rally coming in a few sessions, followed by a pullback. It will give the dollar enough time to build momentum and form a signal to go long.
Dollar potential entries. ExplainedWe discussed bullish fundamental setup, but still no entry. There is a clear trendline on a daily chart. Breaking above is an entry. The most conservative traders can wait till DXY breaks and hold above 7 days high. It has been a long time since the dollar did that. So, breaking and holding above is sign bulls have got the strength to reverse a trend. The most aggressive traders can enter once and if higher low will be formed before breaking the trendline. But this trade is too risky for me. This market has a good fundamental setup and you can use any entry technique to pick up a trade.
DXY H4FOLLOWING THE ARTICLE I PUBLISHED ON THIS INDEX YESTERDAY, PRICE IS SETTING UP NICELY FOR AN ENTRY
Dollar index - double top patternLooking at the long-term chart of the USD index futures contracts we may spot a potential double top pattern. The first top was created in 2017 and the second in 2020. The key resistance seems to be placed at 103,68.
The key level for a mentioned potential pattern is located at 88,17. This may be the first potential target for the dollar bears. However, if it is broken we may expect another decline even to the levels from 2014 at 80.00.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Visualizing inflation of the US DollarStock market up... Crypto up... Precious Metals up... what is going down? Your buying power... if you hold CASH! Not many are really noticing that with historically (even lower) low interest rates and helicopter money being written in checks to everyone that we may now be visually seeing the inflation of the USD.
I am speculating a -6% drop in the US Dollar Index over the next 1-2 years. This is not apples to apples for the buying power as it is just relative to other countries' currencies but it is a good measure. If your assets are not returning greater than 7% or you are not locking in credit at a fixed rate of 5% or less then you are essentially losing by sitting in cash.
DollarHello traders, here is the analysis from our team :
We feel; These area's. Will give best results for scalp buys, Or Sells.
#1 Buy@ 93.365
* Futures sometimes run in one direction during Day. *
So. If no Momentum, Or pullback in these area's for 7/27/2020.
Void trade. We like 130 pip Sl/Target. Take profit 5 to 130 pips, Move
STOP LOSS UP WHEN YOU CAN.
Let us know in the comment section below if you have any questions.😉
Let us know in the comment section below if you have any questions.😉
Dollar analysisLast week I got a lot of emails regarding buying Dollar. Guys, it is not time yet. We have a good setup in this market – commercials are long, the evaluation index shows the dollar is undervalued, but time matters a lot in this business. We have to get price action confirmation. I would like to see ‘wash-out low’ before a rally starts. Besides, we have a clear trendline on the daily chart, and breaking above it is what we are waiting for. The most conservative traders can look for breakout and successful trendline retest before taking a trade. We have a good setup for a potential big rally, but patience is a must.
