Happy happy happy!~Happy happy happy!~
I hope you will find this informative to help you in navigating the market!
If you already have conviction in this token, consider this as an additional perspective.
Assumptions:
1. Intended for spot holding/trade.
2. Bullish market into Q1 2025.
3. Robust against sudden dumps.
4. Understanding of meme coin and risk management.
5. Awareness of broader market, macroeconomics, and geopolitics at play.
6. No rug pull or any funny business.
Invalidations:
1. Tier 1 CEX listing hype, straight moon before any retrace and correction.
2. Breakdown and invalidation of current MS.
3. Broader market extreme bearishness and unexpected turns.
Applied analysis:
1. ICT
a. Liquidity:
BSL:
H4 BSL as marked in red box (61.8% - 65% fib, golden pocket)
D1 BSL slightly higher than D1 EQ zone (78.6% - 85.4% fib, reversal zone).
SSL:
H4 and D1 currently overlaps (23.6% - 14.6%, strong support), sure will form deviations along the way.
Generally speaking, 38.2% fib would be a good start to do DCA, maybe add a bit bags in the 50% fib zone. As always, adding some buy order in the lower range will maximize the chance to catch liq. sweep by MM/whales testing S-D, deeper liq. grab followed by a strong rejection could confirm a bullish OB.
b. Order Blocks (Paired with VPVR):
Bearish OB/Supply zone:
H4-D1: both overlaps with SSL.
Bullish OB/Demand zone:
H4-D1: slightly higher than H4-D1 SSL, starts at 38.2% fib.
A bit explanation: overlapping of liquidity and OB indicates areas of strong market interest (retails/whales/institutions).
c. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Very small range 0.01-0.0117.
d. Market Structure:
Premium-EQ-discount zone and PDH-PDL-PWH-PWL as marked in the D1 chart. CHoCH, BOS, and MSS shouldve visible in LTF. EQH and EQL is a good indicator too to support reversal thesis.
2. Candle Pattern:
Watch formation of hard price rejection (long wick down/up), reversal candle, or bullish continuation i.e. morning star/engulfing/hammer on HTF or near OB/liquidity.
3. Fib Analysis:
Use log price and log fib or vice versa, fib levels marked in the chart uses log fib-log price.
4. Technical Indicators:
Use your most comfortable indicators, watch for any reversal/bull div. signal and gauge the trend strength and confirming continuations. EMA 50-100-200 could act as resistance/support.
5. Market Phase Interpretation (Wyckoff):
I'll simply use the good ol' reliable Wyckoff Accumulation, everything marked in the chart. Any Tier 1 CEX listing will send this to the moon thus invalidate this interpretation, otherwise will have high probability to follow standard market phase development.
6. Entries and TP:
Exercise partial TP along the way, always reassess whether it is worth it or not to strengthen your position by reentry using profit generated or move it into another token of your interest. Once price goes way above your entry price, use stop-limit to move SL higher than your entry price to secure your bags incase sudden dump happens.
7. Risk/Reward (RR) Ratio:
This thing should has at least 1:3 RR.
NFA. DYOR. Good Luck!
Note:
As per usual, for DCA use cascading buy order, set tight TP/SL for higher price zone based on your risk tolerance and trading style, re entry at lower price once price stabilizes in HTF should be safe. This way, you should be able to minimize your realized loss (i.e. 2-5% or 5-10% SL distance for each staggered entries in spot market) and optimize your returns (parabolic/god candle moves included).
Follow your own risk management for max drawdown (MDD) tolerance and other boring metrics.
Dont overcommit, use ~5% of your portfolio to see if this coin suit your taste.
