Tilray looking goodTilray bounce of the Fibonacci circle low ad looks to be starting a new bull market. The monthly chart is turning indicating a change in direction for these shares.
2HQ trade ideas
Tilray (TLRY:NASDAQ) Demonstrates Enhanced PerformanceTilray, a prominent player in the cannabis industry, has recently disclosed positive advancements in both financial and operational aspects. These developments not only indicate a promising trajectory towards profitability but also reflect the company's persistent efforts to establish a sustainable business model.
Diversification Through Acquisition of Anheuser-Busch's Brands
Tilray's strategic move to acquire eight beer and beverage brands from Anheuser-Busch holds significant implications for the company's U.S. beverage alcohol segment and its overall business diversification strategy. This acquisition not only expands Tilray's product portfolio but also augments its appeal in the market.
Investment Outlook and Strategy
Considering the current scenario, we recommend considering Tilray's stock as a potential investment opportunity. However, it's important to note that the company operates within a high-risk environment typical of the cannabis industry. Therefore, adopting a cautious approach is advisable. Investors might opt for dollar-cost averaging, a strategy that involves investing fixed amounts at regular intervals. Additionally, initiating the investment with a modest position could be a prudent approach to manage risk exposure effectively.
In conclusion, Tilray's recent positive financial and operational updates, coupled with its strategic acquisition, position the company on a noteworthy trajectory. Investors should approach this opportunity with careful consideration, keeping in mind the inherent risks associated with the industry.
This content is provided for general information purposes only and is not to be taken as investment advice nor as a recommendation for any security, investment strategy or investment account.
TLRY is it still a buy? SHORTTLRY dropped from a Head & Shoulders in the winter into the lows in June and July with a lot
of trading and accumulation as shown by the volume profile and its POC. Today TLRY
took off for a big gainer of a day. But why and
can it continue, The 5-minute chart shows plenty of volume support for today's move.
The 4H chart shows a scorching rise into the third standard deviation line above the mean VWAP
anchored into the earnings date two weeks ago which was a miss. Fundamentally, TLRY has
been buying shares of BUD and other beer brewing or distribution companies. If i were an
investor, I would be concerned. TLRY should focus on its core product and get good at
making cash and not burning it. While the MACD is still bullish and the mass index indicator not
yet triggering a reversal, I see a drop happening from the pop. Fundamentally TLRY
does not deserve the level of enthusiasm that it received. The EFT MJ had a big uptrend for the
day then printed a bearish engulfing candle on the close
as traders took their profits off the table.
In consideration of all of this, I think TLRY is a very safe short trade. I will zoom into the
5 minute time frame and go short from a high pivot. expecting a 10-15% return for the
remainder of the week as the flush or at least drop kicks in especially from inexperienced
traders buying in while TRLY is running high without reason into the greatly overbought zone.
I suppose it could pump from a short squeeze instead of leveling out and dropping, so
my trade will be small and risk constrained. Is you have any alternative idea why this
rose so much please let me know!
TLRY LONGTLRY just completed the gap fill at 2.32 which I had posted about before hand. Now we can zoom out and look at the weekly chart which shows a massive falling wedge. Once this breaks out, say over $2.40, we can start to target $5-7
$TLRY First Step Toward Cannabis LegalizationWith its stock up 32% since sharing impressive Q4 financial results, Tilray Brands, Inc. (Nasdaq: TLRY) may further soar over the coming weeks following its recent acquisitions to boost its alcohol segment. With this in mind, the company recently acquired 8 beer and beverage brands from Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) in a move that would substantially boost the company’s revenues. Although these acquisitions expand the company’s portfolio of US alcoholic brands, an important aspect of these acquisitions is that they may be setting the infrastructure for the company to distribute its cannabis products once federal legalization happens. In light of this, TLRY stock may be poised to continue running over the coming weeks given investors’ enthusiasm over the company’s latest move.
TLRY Fundamentals
Expanding Its Alcoholic Brands
Recently, TLRY struck a deal with BUD to acquire Shock Top, Breckenridge Brewery, Blue Point, Red Hook, 10 barrel brewing, Square Mile Cider, Widmer Brothers Brewing, and Hi Ball for $85 million in an all-cash deal. Through this deal, the company is now the 5th largest craft beer brewer in the US with a 5% market share. Overall, this deal is projected to increase the company’s annual alcohol purchases from 4 million cases to 12 million cases and increase its annual revenue by $250 million.
This increase in revenue is likely to improve TLRY’s profitability prospects considering that its alcohol segment had a gross margin of 48.7% in the fiscal year 2023. Given the expected increase in sales, it would not be a surprise to see the company’s gross margins improve since the average industry gross margin is 53.5% which means that the brands the company acquired may improve its gross margins which would reflect on the company’s bottom line.
Logistical Cohesion
Aside from this, the deal provides TLRY with another advantage that may help it flood the US market with its cannabis products once federal legalization happens which is logistical cohesion. In reference to the deal, the company’s CEO Erwin Simon stated “This is an exciting milestone for our beverage portfolio, no question. But I also want to emphasize that cannabis remains central to our overall strategy,”. This means that the company’s acquisitions are serving the company’s core business of selling cannabis products.
TLRY can achieve this through the logistical cohesion that it is set to have in the US once the deal closes later this year. Most of these brands serve a logistical benefit for the company due to their branching distribution networks that are focused on the northwest region which is in close proximity to Canada.
Brands like Widmer Brothers Brewing, 10 Barrel Brewing, and Square Mile Cider have extensive operations in Oregon which has a notably large marijuana market valued at around $1 billion. This indicates that these brands have a thorough logistics network in Oregon which could be used to distribute marijuana to Oregonians once it is federally legal.
That being said, this is only the tip of the iceberg. Oregon is relatively close to Canada indicating that direct transportation via roads is feasible which in turn means that it is more cost-effective. Additionally, given the distributive nature of logistical networks, TLRY could potentially sell its marijuana products to surrounding states like Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and California, which has an extremely large marijuana market size valued at around $2.2 billion.
On that note, TLRY could coordinate distribution with its existing brands like Alpine and Green Flash which operate in California to cover a larger area. For example, Alpine’s distribution center could service southern California while Widmer Brothers’ distribution center could service Northern California. In short, by fusing its subsidiaries’ distribution networks, the company could obtain a cohesive multi-state logistical network that could help it boost sales of its alcoholic brands and dominate the US cannabis market once cannabis is federally legalized.
Technical Analysis
TLRY stock is currently in a neutral trend and is trading in a sideways channel between $2.20, and $2.85. Looking at the indicators, the stock is below the 50, and 21 MAs which is a bearish indication, while above the 200 MA which is a bullish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 36 and the MACD is curling bullishly.
As for the fundamentals, TLRY’s recent acquisition of 8 beer and beverage brands from BUD is a major catalyst for the stock given the benefits these brands add to the company. Since the company expects its alcohol revenue to increase by $250 million annually, its profitability prospects are set to improve significantly considering that the alcohol segment has the highest profit margin.
Meanwhile, the added distribution networks may benefit the company in the long term since it can use these networks to distribute its cannabis products once cannabis becomes federally legal. For these reasons, investors could find the $2 mark a good entry point in TLRY stock as its value may be poised to increase significantly in the long term.
TLRY Forecast
TLRY’s recent deal has two overarching long-term benefits. The first is that it is projected to increase revenues substantially, and since alcohol sales have a higher gross margin, that could improve the company’s strides toward profitability. The second benefit lies in the fact that these brands have distribution centers that could be utilized as part of a larger logistical network once marijuana is legalized on a federal level. In light of these benefits, going long on TLRY stock may prove to be a profitable investment in the long term.
$TLRY First Step Toward Cannabis LegalizationAfter posting impressive Q4 financial results, Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) has been gaining momentum as the company’s outlook appears to be brighter than ever – especially with cannabis’ status as a schedule 1 drug currently being re-evaluated. Although full cannabis legalization may not come for years, the ongoing re-evaluation of cannabis status may be a positive step toward federal legalization. Until then, the company is continuing to expand its US presence through its portfolio of US alcoholic brands which may allow it to gain a substantial market share in the adult US cannabis market. In light of this, and the company’s improving financial situation, this could be the time to go long on TLRY stock.
TLRY Fundamentals
As things stand, TLRY is a Canadian marijuana giant that is considered the largest cannabis company in the world in terms of revenue. That being said, it also has a thriving alcohol business which provides it with substantial revenue and an extensive logistics network in the US. On that note, when TLRY acquired Montauk Brewery, it also acquired Montauk’s distribution centers which anchored its position in the US market. Currently, the company is seeking out more strategic acquisitions within the US alcohol industry as it aims for this segment to generate $300 million in annual revenues.
The Federal government is currently reevaluating marijuana’s status as a Schedule 1 drug. This in turn means that the cannabis could be rescheduled or de-scheduled. Getting de-scheduled means that cannabis will no longer be illegal. Being rescheduled, on the other hand, means that cannabis will no longer be considered a schedule one substance – meaning that cannabis research will no longer go through bureaucratic hurdles.
Rescheduling appears to be the most likely outcome, which while not ideal for the industry, could be considered a step toward legalization. In that case, the whole cannabis sector will run including TLRY stock.
There are 3 reasons it is very likely cannabis will not remain a Schedule 1 substance. The first of which is that Schedule 1 guidelines indicate that all substances within that umbrella have no medical use. This is not the case for cannabis since it is currently used to ease nerve pain and treat PTSD among other medicinal uses.
The second reason is that, according to Schedule 1 guidelines, the substance in question must have a potential for abuse. With that in mind, multiple studies have been conducted to measure the likelihood of cannabis abuse and these studies concluded that cannabis does not have a potential for abuse. In fact, one of these studies indicated that as little as 9% of cannabis users abuse the substance. The results of these studies are incomparable to other Schedule 1 substances like cocaine and heroin which have a much higher abuse rate.
Finally, cannabis is not likely to remain a Schedule 1 drug due to the growing sentiment for federal legalization. Currently, 68% of Republican voters are pro-cannabis legalization and 80% of Democrats believe Congress should move to end the prohibition on cannabis. All in all, 88% of US adults support cannabis legalization which makes the odds to be in favor of rescheduling or de-scheduling.
Due to these factors, marijuana legalization may not be far off, and when it occurs, TLRY will be ready to swoop in through its logistics network because of its thriving alcohol business. As is, TLRY is able to repurpose its existing distribution network which will help it penetrate the US cannabis market and manage the distribution of its product within the country. In this way, the company’s sales may be poised to increase significantly, and combined with its improved financial performance, profitability may not be a far-fetched dream for the cannabis giant.
TLRY Financials
According to TLRY’s 2023 annual report, its assets decreased from $5.44 billion at the beginning of the year to $4.3 billion. The reason for this decline in assets is largely attributable to declines in capital assets from $587.4 million to $429.6 million, intangible assets from $1.2 billion to $973.7 million, and goodwill from $2.6 billion to $2 billion. Meanwhile, liabilities declined from $1 billion to $977.3 million due to a decline in convertible debt payable from $196.6 million to $167.3 million despite current liabilities increasing from $280.3 million to $432.9 million.
In terms of revenue, TLRY witnessed a slight YoY decline from $628.3 million to $627.1 million. However, what is notable is the company’s gross margin improved significantly YoY from 18.5% to 23.4%. As for operating costs, the company witnessed a drastic increase from $727.2 million to $1.5 billion. However, this increase is a result of impairment increasing from $378.2 million to $934 million and a $246.3 million change in the fair value of convertible notes. For this reason, the company’s net loss increased from $434.1 million to $1.4 billion.
Technical Analysis
TLRY stock is in a neutral trend as it recently entered a sideways channel between $2.17 and $2.85. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 57 and the MACD is bearish. It is also worth noting that there is a gap near $1.7 that was formed on the company’s Q4 results which might be filled soon.
As for the fundamentals, updates regarding the rescheduling or de-scheduling of cannabis will act as a major catalyst for TLRY stock and the whole cannabis sector. Given that it is highly likely that cannabis may not remain a Schedule 1 substance, federal legalization may not be a far-fetched dream and TLRY is well-positioned to secure a substantial share of the US market thanks to its presence in that market through its alcoholic brands.
Since investing in the cannabis sector is a long-term bet on cannabis legalization, bullish investors could wait for the stock to cool down from its post-earnings run, and enter long positions when the gap near $1.7 is filled.
TLRY Forecast
With cannabis’ status as a Schedule 1 substance being put into question, TLRY stock and the whole cannabis industry may be poised to soar. As rescheduling appears to be the most likely outcome, this could be considered a pivotal step toward federal legalization. With this in mind, TLRY is well-positioned to capitalize on the eventual legalization of cannabis thanks to its familiarity with the US market due to its existing US alcoholic brands.
Given that the company may utilize the distribution networks of its alcoholic brands to distribute its cannabis products, it has the potential to dominate the adult US cannabis market once cannabis is legalized. With the company improving its financial performance significantly in Q4 and its expectations of positive cash flow for the full year 2024, TLRY stock may be poised for growth in the coming years – making it a potentially profitable long-term hold.
TILRAY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 072523 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 1.68/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Can TLRY continue the momentum and is the news buyable ?TLRY jumped 10% in two trading days following the announcement of "gummie beer"" by
its subsidary Sweetwater Brewing. Traders who trade TLRY seem impressed and that is what
counts. Objectively, a gummie product containing alcohol seems to be a nonstarter given
regulatory hurtles and then marketing of familiarity. No doubt users could titrate the desired
effects as easily as liquid alcohol consumption. The chart of TLRY is not the best. Price
has surged to the overvalued zone of between 2 and 3 deviations above a mean VWAP anchored
last week. That is to say it may be overbought. The indicators are okay showing relative
strength in two-time frames over 50 but under 80 while the MACD K/D lines are rising and
parallel. I will add this to my watchlist for now. I am not yet ready to take a hit.
Potential breakout on TLRYYes, I know this stock is one of the most hated stocks in the universe, however technically this looks to be setting up for a strong move upward.
Weekly bullish divergence, Weekly spinning top candle from last week (sometimes a warning of a reversal), falling wedge structure with reducing volume, and double bottom area.
Could this setup fail?
ABSOLUTELY YES IT CAN FAIL!
So please be careful.
A break above 2.50 would be promising but weekly volume and candlesticks would have to confirm (see a stock like ATOM for what I'm talking about)
This could potentially run up into a safe banking vote and then sell on the vote news. Anyway, I like the potential setup, take it for what it's worth. See the ATOM analysis below for a similar setup
TLRY longWe reached the price to enter. Please be carefull. Dont buy a lot.
take price near 4-4.5
stop price evereybody use your opinion
TLRY falling wedgeOn the chart we can see a falling wedge pattern.
Our strategy is to enter long when the price breaks out of the falling wedge formation.
Look for the volume increase in order to avoid the trading false break out.
Target is shown on the chart.
Tilray: Finally arrived 🧳Two weeks ago, Tilray took heart and jumped into the turquoise zone between $1.46 and $2.27, leaving a visible gap on its way. Near the bottom of this zone, the share could establish the low of wave II in white by now, meaning that soon, the bulls should take over. We expect Tilray to develop enough upwards momentum to leave the turquoise zone on the northern side via wave (1) in magenta, taking a first step in the direction of the resistance at $5.12.
TLRY - Earnings Pop ?I've seen this pattern a few times recently.
Here it is not exactly the same but there is a steep then shallow descending channel separated by a dump that led to a pump.
TLRY dump fell below the major 2020 low and so this is a significant area for a SRP shakeout reversal pattern.
Now that the liquidity is tapped below the low, TLRY may be ready for a pop or who knows maybe even a very large pop.
Earnings coming up can bring volatility and if its good news then perhaps a big bounce will be coming.
This is a trade that will need a little luck but its worth a punt.
If it doesn't pop I still think this is a good area for a long term hold at the 3 year low.
Not advice.
TRLY Undervalued / Fed Fix Long SetupThe 2H chart on TLRY shows a volume profile showing the highest concentration of shares
traded at $2.65 or about 15% above the current price. Short sellers dominated there. Price has
descended down onto the support/demand zone. It is near to tow standard deviations below
the mean VWAP and so very undervalued.
Federal legislation intended to remedy the cannabis industry's issues with banking, commercial
loans and other financial liquidity has begun. This is huge for this subsector and could cause a
breakout from the deep undervalued territory.
I will take a long setup here for a decent amount of shares and hedge with a single
put option for risk management/insurance. ACB is similarly positioned.
Tilray: Wait and See… 😌After initially spurring the downwards movement so commendably from the high of wave (4) in magenta, Tilray has been relaxing in a sidewards movement since December. However, there is yet some work to be done! We expect the share to drop a bit deeper still to finish wave II in gray, whose low should then form the basis for a fresh upwards movement. Wave (1) in magenta should carry the course above the resistance at $5.12 eventually and even the subsequent counter movement should peter out above this mark.
Possibly 10x Money Here in 2023-2024TLRY - Wave 4 is about to take place and I think this will be a sizable uptrend. SPY is breaking upward at the same time. TLRY will feed off of that if I am right.
TILRAY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 030423 1) Find a FIBO Slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 2.71/61.80%
Does History Repeat Itself? Weed Giant Tilray Pharmaceuticals is certainly an interesting stock to pay attention to as it hits a key long-term support level of around $2.48 a share. In the past, the stock has shown its ability to have absolutely ridiculous spikes in price.
By dividing the chart's history into time cycles, one can see that there are clear similarities between the movements of prices between 2018 to 2021 and 2021 to 2023. In times 1 and 2 of the cycle, the stock has fallen, and then in part 3 of the cycle, the stock has fallen to and rebounded off a key support level. Finally, in time 4 of the cycle, the stock rebounded off a higher swing low and had an incredible rally of 1434.57% over 140 days. Now the stock is in time 4 of the cycle again, and so if the stock rebounds off a high swing low, it could have another strong rally if history repeats.
Right now, this is a low-conviction trade since the stock could very well fall through support and not repeat history, but since it is near its support level, this trade has a very high potential reward compared to the risk, and I will be trading this with a small portfolio allocation by either waiting for a clear bullish reversal pattern of a higher swing low or by buying at the support level, with a stop loss slightly below the support level.
MORE DOWNSIDE FOR TLRY?Hello Traders!
I wanted to take a look at TLRY, as per psbassin's request.
Thank you for sending this :)
We see TLRY still creating bearish market structure (LL, LH) and moving nicely within a descending price channel.
At its current range, it has been testing its Monthly Level of 2.70 as support but now finding resistance at our POC of 3.18
Each time the monthly is test, it becomes weaker.
So what would I like to see?
I would like to see a break to the downside, grabbing our liquidity from Mar 2020 before considering placing a long position on this chart
If it breaks down further?
We will see if it still respects our descending price channel and enter a long from the bottom of that range.
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TILRAY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 021923Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 2.93/61.80%
Tilray: Take Root 🌱Tilray has been developing some vibrant saplings, but the share shouldn’t forget to take root. We expect the course to extend below the support at $2.43 to plant wave II in gray. Then, Tilray should sprout upwards again, climbing back above $2.43 and growing further above the resistance at $5.12 as well. There, the course should complete wave (1) in magenta, before wave (2) in magenta should bring it back towards $5.12. However, there’s a 33% chance that wave alt. II could already be potted, which would be confirmed by the stock directly sprawling above the resistance at $5.12.
$TLRYBullish scenario on deck for $TLRY
looks like we about to move upside.
Let see what next week brings…
