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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBP/USD Analysis by DreamsFX HubTechnical Analysis: The current price action around $1.2735 is critical. Traders are watching this level closely; a break above could signal a move towards $1.2865, indicating a continuation of the bullish momentum. This level acts as a pivot, and its breach could attract more buying interest, reinforcing the upward trend in the short term. Market Sentiment: The general market sentiment leans towards cautious optimism for GBP buyers, especially as the price approaches key support levels. The expectation here is that if the price holds above these supports, such as the 200-day EMA, there could be a significant bounce, pushing GBP/USD towards higher targets. This sentiment is underpinned by technical indicators like RSI and MACD, which might suggest an oversold condition ready for a bullish reversal. Fundamental Insights: Recent comments from the Bank of England regarding potential rate cuts have introduced a layer of complexity to GBP's outlook. However, if these rate cuts are perceived as a measure to control inflation without severely impacting economic growth, it could actually support GBP in the medium term by preventing overheating and fostering sustainable growth. This scenario might encourage buying as traders look for value in GBP amidst a more balanced economic policy outlook. Conclusion for Buyers: For those looking to buy GBP/USD, the current environment suggests patience while waiting for confirmation above $1.2735. If this level breaks, the buying case strengthens, aiming for targets like $1.2865. The combination of technical support and a nuanced view on the BoE's policy direction could provide a foundation for a buying strategy, focusing on entries at or slightly above this key level with stops placed below significant supports to manage risk.
Long
by DreamsForx
Opening Day of the Week Great short on GBPUSD on a retrace.Looking at RSI, this move will take a retracement, and then continue the next swing downward. Let the pair come to the .618 retracement level, and short there. Target is the 1.618 or 1.272 retracement of the swing up. cheers. RSI is showing strong indication that this move is not done. It is currently making a retracement (ie the current swing upward). As it comes to the 0.618 to 0.786 level, short the pair. RSI confirms this.
Short
by SAILBOATEVANMOSERS
It's Make Or Break in less than 1HR for GBPUSD. Check back. If there is 1 pair that has caused some up-down-up-down crazy, frustrating, manipulated-maybe price-action, stealing the show the past month or so would be GBPUSD. Further falls over the past 16 hours or so, with USD$ rallying following CPI data for USA. Well now its Great Britain's turn with the data in less than an hour. GDP is being released in the UK. This is what it all entails for the Pound to bounce or fail further falls. I am tipping the former. au.investing.com 18:00 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% 18:00 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Oct) 0.0% -0.4% 18:00 GBP GDP (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% -0.1% 18:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Oct) 1.6% 1.0% 18:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% -0.5% 18:00 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 0.2% -1.8% 18:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct) 0.9% -0.7% 18:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% -1.0% 18:00 GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% 18:00 GBP Trade Balance (Oct) -16.10B -16.32B 18:00 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct) -5.31B Check back and I will give my impressions of 'sides' & possible trading action to take.
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
GBPUSD - CONTINUATION PATTERN BULLISH FLAG Analysis GBPUSD 4HR Bullish Flag: This is a consolidation phase often seen in uptrends. It typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend. Liquidity Levels: The levels at 1.27375 and 1.28111 seem to represent potential targets where price may react or reverse. Projections: The blue zig-zag lines depict the anticipated path of price action within the flag pattern, aiming for a breakout above the resistance zone. The bullish flag is a continuation pattern formed after a strong upward trend. It typically signifies that the market is taking a breather before resuming its previous bullish direction. Liquidity Levels ($$$): 1.26438 (Support): This represents the lower bound of liquidity, where buy-side interest might accumulate. Price could potentially dip to this level before reversing upward. 1.27375 (Intermediate Resistance): A liquidity zone where the price might face some hesitation or consolidation during its move upward. 1.28111 (Target Resistance): This is the higher liquidity area and potential target for the bullish breakout. These levels are marked as potential zones of price reaction or reversal based on market interest and order flow. For confirmation of the bullish breakout: Look for a strong candlestick close above the flag's upper trendline or the 1.27375 resistance level. Increased trading volume during the breakout is an additional sign of strength. If price closes above the 1.28111 level, it might signal continuation toward higher highs. Risk Management Stop Loss: A logical stop-loss can be placed slightly below the 1.26438 liquidity support level, as a break below this may invalidate the bullish flag pattern. Take Profit: Targets can be set near or above the 1.28111 level based on risk-reward preferences.
Long
by hafidzali2020
GBPUSD GOING TO THE SKYGBP/USD is showing bullish momentum, supported by a decisive breakout above a key resistance level, accompanied by strong bullish candles and increased volume, signaling robust buying interest. Earlier in the session, a liquidity sweep below a major support level likely triggered sell stops, followed by a sharp reversal, indicating accumulation by smart money. The pair has also respected a rising intraday trendline, bouncing off it and reinforcing the upward trajectory. Technical indicators, such as bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD, further confirm weakening bearish momentum and potential for continuation higher. Additionally, the 50- and 200-period moving averages on lower timeframes are sloping upward, with a golden cross reinforcing the bullish outlook. This setup, combined with low-volume pullbacks, suggests a strong environment for further intraday gains. + was going down in response to the previous liquidity levels, is now answering this by reaching the higher K levels
Long
by edl75
GBPUSD - Potential Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
GBPUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
by Tonksovave
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 12, 2024 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: On Wednesday, GBP/USD exhibited limited movement, stalling near 1.27500 in response to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which aligned with market expectations. The remainder of the week is relatively quiet in terms of UK economic data, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Thursday. The US PPI inflation rate saw a slight increase in the year to November, with core PPI inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year. Core PPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year. Additionally, monthly core CPI inflation increased in November, rising from 0.2% in October to 0.3% month-on-month. Despite the overall increase in core inflation, Wednesday's CPI figures were largely in line with expectations, maintaining a moderate outlook for investors. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that there is now a 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut when the Fed meets for its latest rate meeting on 18 December. Despite a short-term rise in CPI inflation, investors have concluded that the fluctuations in the published data are insufficient to prompt the Fed to reverse its latest quarter-point rate cut to end 2024. US PPI inflation is expected to decline on Thursday, with markets anticipating a similar outcome to this week's CPI data. Producer-level inflation is projected to increase at the front end of the curve but remain near recent levels. The core price index is forecast to rise to 3.2% y/y, up slightly from the previous reading of 3.1%. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.27500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations. While the prospect of a 25bps rate cut at the December - - - - FOMC meeting has strengthened, there is a growing consensus that the pace of rate cuts may slow next year. - Reports suggesting that BOJ officials believe delaying a rate hike until January or slightly later would not incur significant costs have led to yen weakness. - The Bank of Canada implemented a 50bps rate cut as expected by the market. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its benchmark rate by 25bps. Reports from foreign media indicate that China may consider tolerating a weaker yuan next year to respond to tariff threats from Trump’s second administration. Key Economic Indicators + December 12: ECB interest rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) + December 13: U.K. October GDP GBP/USD Chart Analysis It appears that the pair has maintained its upward trend, finding support around the 1.25000 level and climbing to the 1.28000 level. Further gains are expected, with the next potential resistance around the 1.30000 level. However, it remains uncertain whether the pair will reach the peak of the trend afterward. In the short term, the trend leans bullish, while the long-term direction will require further evaluation. If unexpected movements occur, strategies will be adjusted swiftly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
GBPUSD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.2770 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.2750 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Timing GBP/USD’s Pullback With GBP/USD pulling back against the dominant downtrend, let’s explore the various ways traders can approach selling into this retracement. A blend of technical insights and a disciplined strategy is essential to navigating such setups effectively. GBP/USD: Assessing the Pullback Over the past two weeks, GBP/USD has been in mean reversion mode, bouncing higher after hitting six-month lows following the US election, which bolstered the dollar. Friday’s price action formed a small bearish pin-bar candle—a signal worth noting as it suggests that the momentum driving the pullback may be losing steam. Adding to this, the pullback appears to have taken the shape of an ascending wedge, a pattern often associated with market compression and potential reversals. GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Trading the Pullback: Opportunities and Considerations Pullbacks like this offer a chance to align trades with the dominant forces in the market while optimising risk-to-reward ratios. However, balancing these opportunities with the probabilities of success depends on several factors, including trading experience, risk tolerance, and the time available to monitor the markets. Let’s explore three approaches to selling into GBP/USD’s pullback: 1. Aggressive Approach: Selling on a Retest of the Pin-Bar High This approach targets immediate entry near the high of the bearish pin-bar candle formed on Friday. The primary advantage here is favourable risk/reward—stops can be placed just above the high of the pin-bar, creating a tighter stop-loss. The downside, however, is the lower probability of success, as this strategy assumes the pin-bar marks the end of the pullback without waiting for confirmation. 2. Conservative Approach: Waiting for a Daily Close Below the Wedge For those who prefer patience over precision, waiting for GBP/USD to decisively break and close below the ascending wedge on the daily chart could be a safer option. This strategy increases the likelihood of entering after the pullback has conclusively ended. The trade-off, though, is a potentially wider stop-loss to account for increased volatility and a less optimal entry point. 3. Strategic Approach: Using a Lower Timeframe By shifting to the hourly chart, traders can pinpoint break-of-structure levels within the ascending wedge. Selling into a decisive breakdown allows for a highly precise entry with a favourable risk/reward ratio. The downside is the increased time commitment needed to monitor charts and the potential for false breakouts on lower timeframes. GBP/USD Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Key Events to Watch Today, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, addressing financial stability and the BoE’s toolkit. His remarks could influence sentiment around GBP. Additionally, on Wednesday, the US will publish November CPI inflation data—an event likely to impact the US dollar and shape the next phase of GBP/USD’s trajectory. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your
by Capitalcom