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British Pound vs US Dollar

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GBPUSD.P trade ideas

GBPUSD - Potential Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
GBPUSD – retesting the 200dma from below .. the week of 09 DecAfter being in bullish territory (above the 200dma) for over 6 months, this pair has broken below and on Fri, it retested (bounced off) the moving average. That is my reason #1 for a bearish bias. #2 – The area around 1.2750 is a significant s/r & price has met with resistance here. #3 – The bullish move we saw over the last 2 weeks was a retracement of the down move that began on 06 Nov. #4 – This retracement of 50% coincides with the 1.2750 s/r level. #5 – The weekly and daily chart are in complete alignment with this analysis. #6 – The H4 chart shows how price has been moving in an equidistant channel during the retracement phase. Like most retracements, this move has been weak and shallow. I believe that price will break out of this channel to the downside and the bearish move will soon continue. If this happens, price will also move below the 20sma. This will complete the picture I want to see for bearish price action. I will place my stop above today’s daily pin bar and will initially target the 1.2340 region. My expectation is that this has the potential to be a prolonged bearish trend. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. If you decide to trade this, you should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
2
GBP/USD Analysis by DreamsFX HubTechnical Analysis: The current price action around $1.2735 is critical. Traders are watching this level closely; a break above could signal a move towards $1.2865, indicating a continuation of the bullish momentum. This level acts as a pivot, and its breach could attract more buying interest, reinforcing the upward trend in the short term. Market Sentiment: The general market sentiment leans towards cautious optimism for GBP buyers, especially as the price approaches key support levels. The expectation here is that if the price holds above these supports, such as the 200-day EMA, there could be a significant bounce, pushing GBP/USD towards higher targets. This sentiment is underpinned by technical indicators like RSI and MACD, which might suggest an oversold condition ready for a bullish reversal. Fundamental Insights: Recent comments from the Bank of England regarding potential rate cuts have introduced a layer of complexity to GBP's outlook. However, if these rate cuts are perceived as a measure to control inflation without severely impacting economic growth, it could actually support GBP in the medium term by preventing overheating and fostering sustainable growth. This scenario might encourage buying as traders look for value in GBP amidst a more balanced economic policy outlook. Conclusion for Buyers: For those looking to buy GBP/USD, the current environment suggests patience while waiting for confirmation above $1.2735. If this level breaks, the buying case strengthens, aiming for targets like $1.2865. The combination of technical support and a nuanced view on the BoE's policy direction could provide a foundation for a buying strategy, focusing on entries at or slightly above this key level with stops placed below significant supports to manage risk.
Long
by DreamsForx
GBPUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
by Tonksovave
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 12, 2024 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: On Wednesday, GBP/USD exhibited limited movement, stalling near 1.27500 in response to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which aligned with market expectations. The remainder of the week is relatively quiet in terms of UK economic data, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Thursday. The US PPI inflation rate saw a slight increase in the year to November, with core PPI inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year. Core PPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year. Additionally, monthly core CPI inflation increased in November, rising from 0.2% in October to 0.3% month-on-month. Despite the overall increase in core inflation, Wednesday's CPI figures were largely in line with expectations, maintaining a moderate outlook for investors. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that there is now a 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut when the Fed meets for its latest rate meeting on 18 December. Despite a short-term rise in CPI inflation, investors have concluded that the fluctuations in the published data are insufficient to prompt the Fed to reverse its latest quarter-point rate cut to end 2024. US PPI inflation is expected to decline on Thursday, with markets anticipating a similar outcome to this week's CPI data. Producer-level inflation is projected to increase at the front end of the curve but remain near recent levels. The core price index is forecast to rise to 3.2% y/y, up slightly from the previous reading of 3.1%. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.27500, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD H4 | Falling from the Fibo confluence?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2834, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement and the 78.6% Fibo projection, indicating a strong level of resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.2728, an overlap support level. The stop loss will be at 1.2942, a pullback resistance close to the 78.6% 61.8% Fibo retracement High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations. While the prospect of a 25bps rate cut at the December - - - - FOMC meeting has strengthened, there is a growing consensus that the pace of rate cuts may slow next year. - Reports suggesting that BOJ officials believe delaying a rate hike until January or slightly later would not incur significant costs have led to yen weakness. - The Bank of Canada implemented a 50bps rate cut as expected by the market. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its benchmark rate by 25bps. Reports from foreign media indicate that China may consider tolerating a weaker yuan next year to respond to tariff threats from Trump’s second administration. Key Economic Indicators + December 12: ECB interest rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) + December 13: U.K. October GDP GBP/USD Chart Analysis It appears that the pair has maintained its upward trend, finding support around the 1.25000 level and climbing to the 1.28000 level. Further gains are expected, with the next potential resistance around the 1.30000 level. However, it remains uncertain whether the pair will reach the peak of the trend afterward. In the short term, the trend leans bullish, while the long-term direction will require further evaluation. If unexpected movements occur, strategies will be adjusted swiftly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope