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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD: German Political Issues and An ECB Meeting to ConsiderIt’s only been just under 3 weeks since EURUSD hit two year lows at 1.0331 on November 22nd yet it seems like a lot has happened in that short period, including EURUSD rebounding quite impressively to touch 1.0630 on Friday 6th December. Now however, that short squeeze from the lows has cooled as the focus shifts to on-going political problems in France and the prospect of a no confidence vote in Germany on the leadership of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Not only that, tomorrow sees the release of the final ECB interest rate decision of 2024 at 1315 GMT, which is then followed by the ECB press conference led by Madame Lagarde at 1345 GMT. Both events are likely to be critical to the direction of EURUSD moving forward into the end of the year. The prevailing market consensus points to a 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate cut from the ECB. However, a smaller number of analysts have suggested the possibility of a 50 basis point (0.50%) adjustment, though this view appears less widespread. Recent commentary from policymakers has shown that there seems to be a split between those wanting to be more proactive cutting interest rates to give the Eurozone economy a much-needed boost, and those who are reluctant to cut rates until they see that EU inflation is fully under control. The tone of ECB President Lagarde's comments during the press conference could be significant for FX traders. They will likely focus on whether she signals the possibility of further rate cuts during the ECB's first-quarter 2025 meetings or adopts a more cautious stance, emphasizing the need for additional inflation trend data before making decisions. The Technical Outlook for EURUSD: November was a negative month for EURUSD, which saw the cross fall from the 1.0935 November 5th high to the 1.0331 November 22nd low, a move of over 5%, as the US election result was digested by markets. It might be argued, the latest rally from that November monthly downside extreme back to Friday December 6th high at 1.0630, has gone some way to unwind over-extended downside conditions, in place after the sharp decline, back towards a more neutral balanced position, ahead of the ECB. This may indicate trader uncertainty and a squaring of positions, ahead of such an important news event. The market's response to the ECB's announcement and President Lagarde's subsequent press conference will be closely monitored, as investors assess the potential implications for the future direction of EURUSD. So, moving forward what are some potential levels to monitor around the ECB announcement and during the press conference? EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels: Support: To the downside, there is a possible support focus at 1.0444/60, which is a combination of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November/December strength and December 2nd session low. While there is no guarantee that daily closing breaks of this area will resume what has been a downtrend pattern of lower highs/lower lows since September 25th, closes under this support may see increased selling pressure and further declines towards 1.0331, the November monthly low. Resistance: To the upside, there is a possible resistance area marked by 1.0630/37, which equals the December 6th failure high and trendline connection highs dating back to November 18th. While breaks of similar resistance points have historically led to further price strength, past performance does not guarantee future results. If a break occurs, it could pave the way for further gains toward 1.0772—the 50.0% retracement resistance of the September-November decline. However, this outcome remains contingent on broader price trends. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EURUSD - Break of Bearish ChannelEURUSD has reversed from below support level several times and this is holding price very well. As far as the support is respected, we should see a Bullish move to above level. However a break of support will open lower level. Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Long
by MarketsPOV
1
EURUSD - SIGNS OF RECOVERY?EURUSD has been in a downtrend (Bearish) for weeks looking at the Elliot wave pattern (D1) and is currently on wave E. But could there be signs of recovery or will it continue downwards to extend wave E maybe to previous low of 1.034 area? A break below 1.04550 would give us some strong confirmation on that. On the other hand (H4), pair is in a range and a descending channel formed therein. Price bounced off support level of 1.046 and somewhat trying to break above it as well. If it breaks above 1.0510 level we could see a rise to 1.0603 level thus bringing an end to wave E. That would also mean DXY would retreat from current strong resistance levels. if price breaks out of range i.e. below 1.046 then I go SHORT. But I would take a LONG bet next week once a break and close above 1.0510 is confirmed. Also RSI is showing some strong divergence on the H4 giving me some more convictions to go LONG. Sentiment data shows a MIXED reaction more reason for a wait and see what price does at these levels. From contrarian view, the bears should have it. Till then. Your thoughts?
Long
by GhosTrader_GT
EURUSD 15/12/24Starting this week the same way we always do—with our markup on EU. Following last week’s chart, we still maintain our bearish bias. This week, we’re focusing on the highs once again as a potential sell entry zone. As you can see on our chart, all key points are clearly marked, highlighting areas to aim for and areas to sell from. Last week, we identified a money-out area, and price reacted perfectly to this zone, aligning with our bias as it has consistently for over a month now! Don’t expect the market to shift its bias unless it provides a very clear reason to do so. For now, we remain patient and wait for potential entry opportunities. Stick to your plan and always follow your risk management.
by PipSurfingSociety
EUR/USD Bearish Divergence Setup with RSI Double Top ConfirmatioAnalysis Overview: I am analyzing the EUR/USD pair across the 1-hour and 15-minute timeframes for a potential bearish reversal setup. The primary focus is on identifying bearish divergence between price and the RSI. Key Observations: 1-Hour Chart (H1): The price is currently approaching a key resistance zone around 1.0540 - 1.0573, as indicated by previous highs. I am observing that while the price continues to climb, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which often signals exhaustion. 15-Minute Chart (M15): I am monitoring for a possible RSI double top while the price continues to make higher highs. If the RSI fails to break above its previous peak, this could confirm a bearish divergence and signal a potential change in price direction. Trading Plan: Confirmation Trigger: I will wait for the RSI to form a clear double top pattern on the M15 chart, while the price continues to push higher, creating divergence. Entry: A bearish signal will confirm entry near the resistance zone (1.0540 - 1.0573). Stop Loss: Above the resistance zone at 1.0573. Take Profit: Targeting the next support area around 1.0485. The setup focuses on bearish divergence between the RSI and price action. If the RSI confirms a double top while price reaches resistance, this would strengthen the case for a reversal and a potential short trade. Monitoring the M15 chart for confirmation will ensure precision in entry timing.
Short
by Jose_ManuelR
Prediction of EURUSD price decrease in the near future?Dear Traders, The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0378 mark, extending its bearish momentum for several consecutive days. This persistent decline has been largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cuts, which have bolstered the US dollar and exerted downward pressure on this major currency pair. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, it’s evident that the pair remains below the 34-period EMA, signaling that the bearish trend is far from over. After failing to sustain the upward momentum near the 1.0450 level, the price resumed its descent, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in the market. Given these factors, my personal analysis suggests that the downtrend is likely to accelerate in the near term. Any potential corrective pullbacks, in this context, could present strategic opportunities for sellers to re-enter the market. What’s your perspective on this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to hear your take!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn