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EUR/USD / more Bullish ?!? Hello traders ,what do you think about EUR/USD? There are two main options for trading, I personally expect the price to rise at least to the specified level 1.080. The other option is that the upward correction at 4h is over and we look for continuation of the bearish movement with the aim of a new monthly LL in the direction of 1.02 and below. We've had two good bullish weeks, I think an upside is the more likely development scenario. If you think this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.
Long
by PpetroeR
3
EURUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the red line - break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
EURUSD IS BULLISHI hope you are still buying EUR, if not this is a perfect entry. EUR has cleared a yearly low. It has show a great rejection from the area; now is the r3t3st and the perfect entry. Looking back at DXY chart and EUR chart for the past 10 years, you will find a pattern and that's why I'm certain of EUR strength agsisjt dollar. Same with GBP and AUD. AUD should outperform both of them but I prefer eur and gbp. Dont miss out on this trade. Comment if you have any question or contrary opinion. I want to write more but let me post so you guys will see this on time
Long
by UGBOR
EUR/USD Sunday Market ReviewCurrent Market Position The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.05678, positioned at the premium side of its recent trading range. This level represents a significant recovery from the markdown initiated on November 13th, which established the range's parameters. Recent Price Action Analysis The trading range has been defined by: Upper bound: Current levels around 1.05678 Lower bound: 1.04802 Notable displacement: Liquidity sweep on November 22nd Recovery: Strong positive reaction leading into November 30th Technical Structure The price action has demonstrated a clear range-bound behavior with strategic liquidity sweeps. The recent upward movement from the lower displacement suggests accumulation at lower levels, with buyers showing conviction in defending the range's floor. Key Technical Levels Upside targets: Primary resistance: 1.09464 (coinciding with 200 EMA) Extended target: 1.12136 (longer-term projection) Correlation Analysis with US Dollar Index The Dollar Index presents a potentially bearish setup: Current resistance: 108.071 Initial support target: 105.970 Critical breakdown level: 105.347 Further DXY support levels on bearish continuation: Major support: 103.376 Extended targets: 101.856 and 100.000 Technical Patterns The US Dollar Index is exhibiting a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe, although Friday's green close suggests some hesitation in the bearish momentum. This pattern, if confirmed, would align with the bullish EUR/USD scenario. Outlook and Strategy The technical setup suggests a bullish bias for EUR/USD with the following considerations: The pair has shown resilience at lower levels with strong buying pressure The projected move above the 200 EMA could trigger additional momentum The potential USD weakness, as indicated by the head and shoulders pattern, provides fundamental support for the bullish EUR/USD scenario Risk Considerations Traders should monitor: The 105.347 level on the Dollar Index as a key pivot Any failure to breach the 200 EMA could lead to range continuation Friday's positive close on the Dollar Index might indicate temporary strength Conclusion The technical structure supports a bullish bias for EUR/USD with clear upside targets at 1.09464 and 1.12136. This aligns with the potential bearish structure in the US Dollar Index, although proper risk management should be maintained given the recent dollar strength.
Long
by FXCapitalClub
1
EURUSD SELL Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward.
Short
by Tonksovave
EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis. Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance. As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765. You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Faces ResistanceMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Faces Resistance EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.0550 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0635 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0635 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0550 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The pair declined below the 1.0520 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0500 level. A low was formed at 1.0498 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0594 swing high to the 1.0498 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.0545 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0545 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 1.0570 zone or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0594 swing high to the 1.0498 low. The main resistance sits near the 1.0590 level. An upside break above the 1.0590 level might send the pair toward the 1.0635 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0675 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0520. The next major support is near the 1.0500 level. A downside break below the 1.0500 support could send the pair toward the 1.0445 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges: Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
1
EURUSD Next possible moveSAXO:EURUSD Title "EUR/USD Intraday Analysis: Sell Bias Persists | Dollar Dominance Resumes" Market Context "EUR/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar regains strength amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Lingering concerns over Eurozone economic growth further weigh on the pair, favoring a bearish bias." Technical Analysis *"Today’s sell entry is supported by the following bearish signals: Trend Structure: The pair continues to form lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend. EMA Dynamics: Price trades below the 20 and 50 EMAs, signaling sustained bearish momentum. RSI: Falling toward 40, highlighting increased selling pressure. MACD: Negative histogram bars are expanding, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Levels: Support: 1.0480 (intraday), 1.0450 (next key level). Resistance: 1.0520 (intraday), 1.0550 (critical barrier). A move above 1.0550 would negate the bearish bias."* News Context "Upcoming: U.S. ISM Services PMI data could provide fresh directional cues. Previous: Friday’s strong NFP report boosted the dollar, keeping EUR/USD under pressure." Call to Action "Will EUR/USD continue its slide, or could support levels trigger a reversal? Share your thoughts and strategies below!"
Short
by RBSBALA