DJI trade ideas
US30 painting a beautiful downtrendUS30 Technical Analysis Report
December 16, 2024
Current Market Overview
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently displaying a significant bearish bias, with multiple timeframe analysis supporting a continuation of the downward momentum. Current price: 43,886
Technical Analysis by Timeframe
Daily Timeframe (HTF)
Confirmed bearish market structure break at 44,392 (December 10, 2024)
Overall Higher Timeframe trend remains bearish
This break serves as a key reference point for the current bearish momentum
4-Hour Timeframe (H4)
Clear downtrend pattern formation
Current price action showing retracement to sweep buy/sell liquidity zones
Price action respecting the downward trendline range
Suggested entry level identified at 43,809
1-Hour Timeframe (H1)
Key resistance level identified at 44,058
Potential for temporary trend interruption if this level is breached
Currently operating within Asian session range boundaries
Key Trading Levels
Entry Target: 43,809
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 43,345
Extended Target (TP2): 42,890 (conditional on market alignment)
Key Resistance: 44,058
Previous Structure Break: 44,392
Volume Analysis
Current phase: Asian session (characterized by lower volume)
Critical observation period: New York session open
Anticipating increased volume and potential trend confirmation during NY hours
Risk Management Considerations
Primary trend remains bearish
Watch for potential temporary reversals at 44,058
Monitor NY session volume for trade confirmation
Consider partial position closure at TP1 (43,345)
Trading Session Context
Currently in Asian trading hours
Key decision point expected at NY session open
Volume expected to increase significantly during NY hours, providing better trade execution opportunities
Trade Strategy Summary
The overall strategy aligns with the bearish bias across multiple timeframes. Entry opportunities are being monitored at 43,809, with a structured approach to take profit levels. The New York session will be crucial for volume confirmation of the anticipated moves.
Note: This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All traders should conduct their own research and risk assessment before entering any positions.
US30 Possible Set UPUS 30 Upward trend is still intact however short term selling and long term buys areas are marked on the chart all trades will be executed upon confirmation
upcoming week Likely Sell Zone 44500 area Buying area with 200 - 300 pips target 43200 area incase we get closure below the 43200 area than target will be 42250 area from where we will look for buying
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates
was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Yesterday I posed the observation
that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning
of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market.
But no, complacency reigned.
The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do.
But no, today quite the contrary.
They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed".
The proof of that " massive surprise "
was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27.
My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average
had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago.
Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights".
This one was about big money complacency.
And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment.
THE_UNWIND
12/18/24
WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
Why is Dow Jones on a losing streak?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (Ticker AT: USAIND) recently experienced its longest negative streak since 2018, racking up eight consecutive sessions of declines. This downtrend began on December 4, when the index closed above 45,000 points for the first time in history. Since then, it has shown a downward trend, reflecting the volatility and fluctuations of the market in the current period. During this period, the DJIA has shown a downward trend, while other indexes such as the Nasdaq have experienced increases, reaching new all-time highs. For example, the Nasdaq rose 1.24% and closed at new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.38%. However, these positive closes were the result of the strong performance of a few stocks, such as Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, which set new all-time highs.
The recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is due to several factors that have generated uncertainty in the markets. Here are the main reasons behind this behavior:
1. Interest Rate Concerns 2.
• The persistence of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat inflation continues to negatively affect sensitive sectors, such as real estate and industrials.
• Investors fear that these rates could be prolonged, limiting economic growth.
2.Recession Fears
• Mixed economic data, such as a slowdown in consumer spending and industrial production, have fueled concerns about a possible recession in 2024.
• Although the labor market remains strong, other indicators, such as the manufacturing index, reflect weakness.
3. Impact of the Industrial Sector
• Given that the DJIA is largely comprised of industrial and consumer goods companies, any weakness in these sectors directly impacts its performance.
• Key companies in the index, such as Boeing and Caterpillar, have suffered setbacks due to global uncertainty.
4. Strength of the dollar
• The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies negatively affects DJIA companies with high international exposure, reducing the competitiveness of their products abroad.
5. Rotation to Other Indices
• Investors are favoring indices more exposed to the technology sector, such as the Nasdaq, which has had a positive performance thanks to the momentum of artificial intelligence and other technological advances.
6. Geopolitical Tensions
• Uncertainties in the Middle East, as well as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have increased risk aversion, especially affecting global companies in the DJIA.
On the technical side, the index has had several bearish days that are reaching its last support zone near 43,300 points. If this zone is pierced, it could evolve towards the checkpoint near 42,100 points. On the other hand, the index is currently oversold at 41.72% and its mid-range crosses do not indicate a change in direction. If we look at the MACD if there has been a turn of the trend of the average of 12 crossing below the average of 26, which shows that in the short term this situation does not seem to have changed.
It is important to note that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, which means that higher-priced stocks have a more significant impact on its movement. Therefore, fluctuations in the prices of high-value stocks can significantly influence the index's performance.
For investors and analysts, this negative streak in the DJIA underscores the importance of monitoring market trends and considering factors such as index composition, global economic conditions and monetary policies that can influence stock index performance.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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US30 Finally Bullish After over 9 sessions of Bearish MovesUS30 is currently showing a bullish move. Its time to eat ppl.
Take your longs and hold them. We are in for a ride. Look to take additional longs at the market allows.
Look for retests of certain supports as price rises to take advantage of opportunities being presented.
Happy Trading.
US30 Intra-Week Analysis DEC 17th 2024US30 continued to make its way down to the 43400 Key Level after retracing from the new All-Time-High and supporting the FUD from an increase in interested rates. From this price point we can expect a decrease in volume resulting in consolidation as we approach Christmas and the new year. If we see a break above 43800 that will help support potential buys back to ATHs otherwise look out for a break below 43250 meaning selling momentum is still there.
US30 in consolidation patter but will likely fall someUS30 is showing resilliance at support level 43700 with the entire day hovering on or around that support line. Price is currently within the trend line channel and and therefore would have to consolidate above that support area in order to maintain its levels. If price within the next 8 hours does not recover above the current support line it will likely fall some more. The next support level is at 43500. Look to short the US30 from a retest of the current support line to at least 43500. Make sure to set your TPs properly because it will be a fast fall to a rebound when it does.
Follow me for more insights. Comment below for questions.
USA30 last analysis of 2024.This is the last USA30 analysis 43400 is my first entry more entries is lower than that market can goo lower to 43000 I will use that as n advantage of layering more orders,we are still trading inside the channel but keep
on growing,soo do trade accordingly and use proper money management,note that trading is risky you might loose all your money soo do follow the system properly, I wish you all the best and happy new year in advance 😀
US 30 Resting around Support Line at 43800 with a Bearish Set upUS 30 is resting on support at 43800 with the potential to fall. With no clear indication of strong buyers ahead. The US30 is likely to fall for the first half of the week only to recover and go Bullish towards the end of the week. The rate at which the US30 will fall will be based on how fast it gets to the lower support at 43360 which is the strongest zone for buyers to enter the market again.
For shorts, look for price to break 43777 and retest that zone for a TP to 43360 area.
For buys, look for price to break the trend line and retest the same trend line to rise.
The short is more likely than the buy.
If you are already in a short you can hold it.
Follow me for more tips and tricks or comment below!
US30 BUYI'm expecting the market to break the resistance trendline and the horizontal trendline all together to confirm the my buy.
Do you think we might see a price correction for the US30?
Hi dears
I have set two target areas that I think are likely to be reached and touched.
What do you think? Do you think we predicted correctly?
US30 4HFollowing up on the Dow Jones analysis ( link here ):
As anticipated, the previously stated targets were successfully hit. However, the Dow Jones is expected to continue its decline toward the 42,000 level, where the market is likely to enter a correction phase.
Looking ahead, I predict a break below 41,670. The next identified targets are 41,120 and 40,820, but I will hold off on focusing on them for now. As the market evolves and new data emerges, I will provide updated and precise analyses.
Stay with me and enjoy accurate, professional insights.
3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out.
Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red)
The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range.
Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend.
The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April.
The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction.
October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure.
The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level.
We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December.
However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year.
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See below for more information on our trading and trend-following techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
US30 - Once A Castle, Always A Castle!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US30 has been bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
After rejecting the $45,000, has been in a correction phase and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone marked in green is a strong structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the structure and lower trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US30 approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
US30 Bearish To Bullish Play for the WeekAfter following US30 on the way down through a beautiful 1hr-4hr TL we might finally be getting to our final target 43,550. Will look for a slight move to the upside touching the sell limit which will then propel back down for another bearish move, after reaching 43,550 I expect sideways movement consolidating for a couple days/weeks hopefully giving us a clear view for a bullish set up in the process. I expect a Major move back up potentially creating new highs into 2025. 43,550 is the end of the daily average move and it will meet with a weekly trendline as it hits the weekly support zone. Let’s see if the streak on US30 continues.. May the markets be w us..!
P.s only way I would switch my bearish outlook is if we break through 44,150 following a break through 44,300 into full bullish territory
My expectations for US30 at H4Hi Guys!
We are at US30 H4, I do my trade at M1 or M5 but I wish to share my view point with you about it in H4, Hope it will be useful...
We need to see how the price closes in the 4-hour time frame at point A.
The first scenario:
if it breaks the channel (Channel) with a powerful bearish candle, the possibility of continuing the bearish trend until reaching point B, which is the intersection of the three trend lines (T1, T2, T3) and the bottom of the bearish channel (CH) and also a beautiful number (around of 43000), is very high; There is a gap that the price is very willing to see, so in this scenario it is possible for the downtrend to continue for at least half of the gap.
The second scenario:
if the price touches the bottom of the channel (Channel) and makes weak Bullish or bearish candles in the 4-hour time frame, the possibility of the price returning to the upward trend is very high, in this scenario, the price is likely to complete its second movement size (leg2) and complete the project 3 collisions (1,2,3) move towards the beautiful number of 46,000
Both scenarios are beautiful scenarios that can be easily seen, it should be seen which scenario is not easily seen, the probability of its occurrence will be higher.
Wishing you successful trading
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
Santa abandons the Dow 30Buyers in the Dow Jones are likely frustrated given the recent gains in other stock indices, and as sellers are aggressively challenging the bullish uptrend, with the index nearly erasing all gains of its 5% rally off the November 19 low. As the price approaches a prior consolidation zone between 43,319 and 43,557, a reaction is likely, potentially forming a bottom and pushing higher as the December Santa rally begins. We maintain a bullish bias above 43,111, the November 20 low.
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US30 Continuation w Sell Limit Prediction After US30 broke our major daily Trendline we foresee a continuation to the downside to keep riding it down, we will try to catch it on the retest to the 44.430 area. Sell limit placed now let’s see if the markets agree w our set up..
US30 indicating a bullish move. Look for the Bulls TodayUS30 has finally broken the downward trend above the 43500 support line. The US30 gave us an evening star pattern off of the trend line and support area at 43500. This was an indication to go Long.
If you are in a short, you will likely have to wait for a pull back to get out of your trade or you can close in a small loss.
If you are in a long. Hold it. This may be US30 returning back to 44500 at least.
Good Luck to you traders.
Comment below for questions and don't forget to boost this if you like the analysis.
us30 longus30: us stocks are in a bullish realy,
after the prsident trump . so we tryto
buy the us30 at every support .
order 1: instant buy with the sl below the support
order 2: buy limit at the support , after the false breakout of channel
