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HG1! trade ideas

Copper testing 4.50/ATHCopper is testing all time high right now. I published this idea almost 3 years ago, oh my, trading is not for impatient people : Currently there is short term speculation that copper buyers might buy a substitute, and news that producers are reducing output. Short term! The news is the manifestation or what is happening on the chart, or is it the other way around? Both the talking/news/speculation and chart are asking the same question : Is the price actually going to go up, past $4? People finding substitutes is probably very minor and just an answer to prices getting high, physical buyers are shy - FOR NOW - about buying at all time high. Literally the same as traders. Exact same thought process. Substitutes are not as good, it may only cover something tiny like 3% of the demand. Also output getting cut pushes prices up, why are producers struggling to maintain margin at these high prices? Maybe everyone needs to stop coping and realise inflation is a reality and bear were right. I cannnot pinpoint the bottom. Any strategy could work I imagine, buying a pullback when it strats going up, buying breakouts, trying to catch the short term bottom without a stop to tight (or it's just catching falling knives), some macd cross strategy, dollar cost averaging. 61.8% fib, previous high retest, buying on some trendline or moving average. Also patterns such as flags. From experience I believe the entry strategy isn't that important, what is most important is cutting losses, taking good trades based on an intelligent analysis, and high risk rewards - being able to cut trades quickly regardless of being wrong or right. No matter the entry strategy I am convinced of two things: No matter the strategy FOMO never works out, and I always use a stop. I am not 100% convinced it will go way up to $8 or even above 5 but I do not care about being right, I care about taking risks to make money. This caught my eyes 3 years ago and it looks juicy!
COMEX:HG1!Long
by MrRenev
1
July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support. -We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg. -July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency. ~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing. ~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24 ~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August. ~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31 **B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF. **Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by twingall
Copper with a strong buy signal. May now rise to USD 1,200.Technical Analysis of Copper The copper price is in a long-term rising trend, from back in 2016 (cf. chart), and a further rise is signaled in both the short and medium term for copper. A strong technical buy signal has also recently been triggered for Copper, and after breaking up from a large right-angled ascending triangle consolidation formation. The potential indicated for Copper according to this large consolidation formation is indicated by the red dashed lines in the chart. A potential for Copper is thus indicated at around USD 1,100 - 1,200 in the 6-9 month term. Furthermore, there is now a significant technical support level for Copper around the USD 825.00 level (the previous resistance level that Copper recently broke above and then triggered a strong technical buy signal). The overall technical picture for the Copper price is therefore very positive, and further indicates a significant rise for Copper, and then preferably to around USD 1,100 - 1,200 in 6-9 months' time. There is now little technical resistance to a further rise for the Copper price within this long-term rising trend. What could possibly change today's very positive technical picture for Copper would be if the price were to get an established break below USD 800.00, and there should now be significant technical support for Copper between USD 800.00 - 825.00.
MCX:COPPER1!Long
by StockCharts365
lad os sethis is a nice idea 123123213123213123te webdokumenter og websider i samarbejde med andre. En wiki er en moderne teknologi (web 2.0), som muliggør, at mange brugere i fællesskab opbygger indhold/viden. En wiki sætter grupper i stand til at organisere og dele indhold og viden på en organisk og fri måde. En wiki bruger typisk et simpelt opmærkningssprog til at formatere teksten med. Nogle wikier tilbyder dog WYSIWYG funktionalitet, så en bruger ikke behøver sætte sig ind i det anvendte opmærkningssprog før wikien kan anvendes. Indtastede ændringer og tilføjelser er for nogen wikiers vedkommende umiddelbart tilgængelige uden at indholdet bliver gennemlæst af andre, dvs. også uden at ændringerne er blevet explicit accepteret eller godkendt først. Den resulterende samling af hypertekstdokumenter, også kaldet enten "wiki" eller "WikiWikiWeb", er typisk produceret af adskillige brugere Mange wikier kan med det samme genkendes på deres brug af WikiOrd (eller CamelCase). Disse produceres ved at bruge stort startbogstav for hvert ord og fjerne mellemrummene mellem ordene; dette medfører, at frasen automatisk laves til et link (Wikiped
COMEX:HG1!
by CryptoMich
Copper - Once again a snapshot of the '05 era compared to now 1989 - 2004 experienced years of sideways action then to a final blow off breaking out of pattern onto the next level. This blow off then resulted into a financial crash. From 2006 (the first top of the '08 crash) to 2023, the market has also been sideways exactly like the past but of course in its own unique way. Based on analyzing coppers trade pattern it seems that we're located in the times of 2005, three years before the '08 crash. lets say the market is due to crash in ~2025 this exactly lines up with the clues in the past to say the market will crash in 2026. With this data you can match your research to add confluence in your investment strategy, trade ideas, and much more. *Not Financial Advice - DYDD*
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Nathanl19
Copper: Anticipating Potential Reversals Amid Bullish TrendFollowing a rebound at the $4.3320 Demand area, copper has started a bullish upside movement. In our analysis, we have identified two potential reversal points that align with recognized Supply areas and the seasonal trend analysis. These areas are critical for our strategy, as they indicate possible turning points in the current uptrend. Additionally, within these identified areas, there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. While these Fibo levels are secondary in importance compared to the Supply and Demand analysis, they still provide valuable insights into potential resistance points. Given this comprehensive analysis, we are looking for short positions as copper approaches these key Supply areas. The confluence of seasonal trends, Supply area recognition, and secondary Fibonacci levels supports our anticipation of potential reversals, making this an opportune moment to prepare for short trades. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Copper in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
King obsession for Gold/Copper bullish candle opportunityCopper giant Codelco has reduced its production for another quarter, although it is expected to improve its data for the second quarter. Yesterday's close in the UK saw all metals mining companies close the market higher ahead of the parliamentary elections which look very much on track for a possible Labour victory. Precious metals and industrial metals mining companies were among the gainers, rising between 4% and 2.4% respectively, in line with gold and copper prices. If we look at the gold indicators, while in the West they are beginning to show signs of increasing indebtedness in people around 30 years old, associated with the problem of sovereign debt generated by the financing of wars and various subsidies. On the other hand, markets such as China and India have been major buyers of gold in the last decade, and have a problem of excessive accumulation of savings, forcing the Chinese government to promote measures to increase spending and increase indebtedness. The truth is that Asians continue to increase their gold accumulation and this will end up affecting the West sooner or later as the fiat currency is beginning to experience a slump and many Westerners have begun to make a weekly/monthly purchase of gold in entities like Costco (NASDAQ:COST) which hover around 200 million according to data from Wells Fargo bank, and this may be fueling the bonfire of the vanities of the highest quality gold and silver like Kitco which may be the big winners in all of this. We have on the radar today's holiday in the US where the Non-Farm Payrolls to be released on Friday and according to employment data released yesterday, this data was worse than expected, and this has softened the view of hopes of extending the current monetary policy until September. While the climate of the U.S. jobs report is not expected to change gold too much other than reflecting possible declines, it will not have long-term relevance, because literally: "EVERYONE IS OBSESSING ABOUT GETTING MORE GOLD." If hostilities in the Middle East do not escalate it is possible that gold will continue to rise towards $2000-$2300 and silver towards $31-$35. If we look at the chart a fairly clear bullish flag is forming in both gold and copper. Copper currently has a high of $519.75 which needs to be pierced. Having a target profit taking zone around $580 if the breakout is met. On the other hand the RSI is giving us an overbought signal at 67%. And the price bell marks the current price as a stability zone in a mono bell shaped curve with the $455 with the current strong price zone. This could signal that if the precondition is met, a pullback could be managed as it does not appear to have major strength at this time. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CLong
by ActivTrades
COPPER : BULLISH REVERSAL - The market has been registering lower highs and lows for 6 weeks ; the short-term trend was then bearish. - During that period, the market has evolved inside a bearish wedge pattern, a configuration that usually appears at the end of a bearish trend. Indeed, this chart pattern is usually seen as the sign that sellers are becoming less and less powerful/numerous on the market, which tends to indicate a bullish reversal to come. Very recently, we could have seen prices breaking-out of this bearish wedge pattern, confirming the bullish reversal scenario. This move has also been supported by a bullish cross from both moving averages as well as the anticipated breakout on the RSI indicator. - This is seen as a bullish reversal scenario, also supported by the prospect of a weaker US Dollar due to the incoming monetary easing cycle from the FED. The bearish wedge break-out has unlocked a new bullish potential towards $453.45, $466.15, $476.40, $486.65 and even above the $500 mark by extension. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CLong
by ActivTrades
Is it possible that the price of copper will increase by up to 5If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click "FOLLOW" at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you. Is it possible that the price of copper will increase by up to 50 percent in the next quarter? Despite the initial rise in the price of copper futures in early May, we are now observing a moderate correction. However, there are several signs pointing to further demand growth and possible supply issues, suggesting that high copper prices will become the long-term norm from my perspective. The electric vehicle industry is facing major challenges in the current environment due to rising prices of key metals such as copper. Some crucial raw materials for the industry, such as nickel and lithium, may become more expensive in the future, further affecting the industry's costs. A number of factors have contributed to the rise in copper prices in recent times. Among them, mining disruptions in Chile, Peru, Panama and Zambia have caused prices to soar. In addition, political developments could keep these levels high considering that demand will exceed supply in China for the next few years. To discuss the global copper market, we need to consider two factors: ore production and refined copper production, which is the finished product that is traded on international exchanges. In recent years, the mining sector has faced several problems. Most copper mining takes place in South America, with Chile and Peru as the main producers, but there are also other nations involved in production. However, episodes of political instability and environmental problems have caused a decline in the supply of minerals on the international market, especially in the countries of Chile and Peru. In addition, another crisis recently occurred when one of the country's largest copper mines, located in Panama, closed permanently. This had a significant impact on the supply of copper ore internationally. In contrast, there is the problem of refining. China is the leading country for refining, and with fewer ores available on the market, ore prices are steadily rising, putting a strain on Chinese refiners' profit margins. It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to make profits from refining. In Chinese companies, there has been much discussion about a possible reduction in refining or an increase in control. There is also evidence to suggest that this cutback has already begun. In recent times, the ore market has experienced some difficulty because of the Panama mine closure and Chinese discussions about refining. This has led to a degree of uncertainty about whether copper supply is sufficient to meet demand. In addition, the rapid transition of vehicles to electricity is also raising the prospect of increasing demand for this metal. To fully understand the opportunities in the copper market, we will analyze the best companies in the industry. Usually, this requires the support of a financial advisor and incurs significant costs. However, thanks to TRADINGVIEW, you can access evaluations and analysis of companies in the sector for a small fee. Using TRADINGVIEW, I performed an analysis on a major company active in the Copper industry. As shown in the image below, I gathered one crucial piece of data: the company has consistently exceeded analysts' forecasts, achieving higher profits and revenues than expected in the most recent quarterly financial statements. Currently, Copper is in a good position in the market and I expect it to reach level 6 in the coming months with potential gains of 50 percent. We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on TRADINGVIEW: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Copper (HG1!) - Ideahey guys, Yearly inside Bar - possible continuation of uptrend. 4.6400 is THE level to break on a Yearly close. Quarterly: Bearish Candles with a long wick. --> Setup is Bearish Monthly: A shooting star with a bearish Engulfing Candle. Stochastics Bearish -> at a yearly Key Level. This confirms the Quarterly Bearish Bias … Bearish Setup: Sell at a valid Resistance level with a goal to retest the 4.000 and 3.5400 area. Note: This bearish Setup will be invalid with a close above 4.4600 on the Monthly Chart. Thanks for reading
COMEX:HG1!Short
by MeruEU
Copper's Short-Term Demand Woes, Long-Term GapsCopper is known as the electrifying metal. Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine. This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for. Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand remaining downbeat given the continued slowdown in the Chinese property market and buildup in copper stock at SHFE. In the longer term, supply challenges risk pushing copper into a supply deficit with major copper miners Codelco and Anglo American facing supply challenges. Given the mixed outlook, copper has continued to trade in a tighter price range over the past two months. Counter to conventional wisdom, a sideways market also presents opportunities for savvy investors. This paper describes the diverging outlook for the red metal and how investors can deploy a calendar spread using CME Micro Copper futures amid the diverging short and long-term outlook. CHINESE COPPER INVENTORIES BUILD UP BECAUSE OF DEMAND SLOWDOWN Chinese copper inventories have surged to one of their highest historical levels. Furthermore, inventories have been rising during the part of the year associated with drawdowns. Source – Bloomberg Lower demand is one of the factors behind the increasing inventories. The Chinese real estate sector is a major consumer of copper. With the ongoing slowdown in the sector, copper demand has been hit hard. Moreover, manufacturing sector in China is also experiencing a slowdown as China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction in May. Source: TradingEconomics Combination of property market slowdown and lower industrial activity is hindering copper demand in the near term. Furthermore, refined copper production among Chinese copper smelters has remained near all-time high levels over the past few months. Source: Bloomberg BULLISH SUPPLY SIDE AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY POSE UPSIDE TO COPPER While near-term demand outlook may be downbeat, the medium- and long-term outlook for copper remain bullish. In the medium term, higher demand from the rapidly growing PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing and EV industry are absorbing some of the higher copper supply. While both industries have slowed in recent months, analysts expect them to recover. At their current pace of copper consumption, these industries are more than compensating for the slowdown in the property market. Source: Reuters Additionally, major copper miners, Codelco and Anglo American are dealing with lower production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 9.4% decline in production in the latest quarter compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades, water restrictions, union protests, and logistical challenges exacerbated by the global situation, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Anglo American also announced plans to reduce its copper production in 2024 as part of a strategy to cut costs and adapt to market conditions. Lower output from major copper miners is a cause for concern given the rapid pace at which the new energy industries such as EVs and PVs are growing as well as the rapid growth in data centers which require substantial amount of copper. With inadequate supply, copper supplies face the risk of being pushed into a deficit. ASSET MANAGERS HAVE REVERSED VIEW ON COPPER BULLISHNESS While asset managers had built up substantial long positions during the sharp rally in copper which took price to an all-time high, they have started to close some of those long positions indicating that in the near-term price may have run ahead of themselves. Source: CME QuikStrike Over the past week, September CME options have seen a buildup in puts while calls have declined. The November contract has seen a similar trend. However, the March 2025 contract has seen a surge in call OI. Source: CME QuikStrike In a similar vein, CME copper future’s term structure has shifted from a steep contango to backwardation over the last three months. However, over the past week, this has started to shift once more as premium of later contracts over front month has started to rise leading to a steepening term structure. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given the diverging outlook for copper in the near-term and later term, investors can express a view on the shift in term structure using a calendar spread consisting of CME Micro Copper futures. The below hypothetical trade setup consists of a long position in Micro Copper futures expiring in March 2025 (MHGH2025) and a short position in Micro Copper futures expiring in August 2024 (MHGQ2024). Investors can also deploy the same trade setup using CME full-size copper futures. The CME full-size copper futures also provide a margin offset for the trade, a calendar spread with the same contract can be deployed with maintenance margin of USD 2,500 as of 24/June. The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.43x. Entry: 1.011 Target: 1.055 Stop Loss: 0.98 Profit at Target: USD 492 Loss at Stop: USD 342 Reward to Risk: 1.43x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:HGH2025Long
by mintdotfinance
Copper: A Retracement Everyone Should Be WatchingDespite recent inflation slowdowns, we anticipate a new era where the consistent demand for raw commodities triggers temporary supply disruptions, potentially leading to significant returns for investors in tangible assets. While Crude Oil offers the broadest inflation protection and Gold protects against stagflation (rising inflation with declining economic growth ), Industrial Metals, such as Copper, provide a perfect mix in this new green energy era. Having the right mix of commodities in a diversified portfolio can help offer protection against a wide range of uncertainties. The Demand Structure is Changing There is a push for increased electric power use because the green energy revolution, rising EV Vehicle demand, and advancements in AI have all strained the out-of-date electrical grid. The combination pushes demand for copper, silver, and other metallic metals higher for the first time in a decade. That comes at a time when increased regulation makes it harder to bring on additional supply. Taking it to the Charts After a historical rise in the first half of 2024 fueled by excess speculation, open interest has recently declined to more normalized levels, leading to a 50% price correction from the February 9 low of $3.70/lb to the May 20 high of $5.19/lb. We see an attractive risk-reward dynamic using calculated options such as Bull Call spreads or outright call options to speculate on a price recovery. We firmly believe that a "Commodities Supercycle" is underway. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Elliott Wave Analysis on Copper (HG) Expects the Metal Turning HShort Term Elliott Wave in Copper (HG) suggests the metal has ended wave (4) correction at 4.375. Wave (3) rally ended at 5.2 on 5.20.2024 which is all-time high price for Copper. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave W ended at 4.7435 and wave X ended at 4.903. Wave Y lower subdivided into a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at 4.571 and wave ((b)) ended at 4.696. The 45 minutes chart below shows wave ((b) on the left side of the chart. Down from there, wave (i) ended at 4.518 and wave (ii) ended at 4.687. Wave (iii) lower ended at 4.431 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 4.612. Final leg wave (v) ended at 4.375. This completed wave ((c)) of Y of (4) in higher degree. The metal has turned higher and the rally looks impulsive. Up from 4.37, expect wave (i) to end soon, then it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct the short term rally from wave (4) before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 4.375 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
What Declining Copper Price is telling us?From recent high to current close, copper prices have declined nearly 14%. Copper is one of the most used elements in various industries and its declining price indicates decreasing demand which in turn indicates the slowing economy. Historically, slump in copper prices precedes stock market correction and with valuations being so high, it is wiser to book your profits and sit on a pile of cash and wait for a good dip when you will be able to buy the same stocks you are holding now at cheaper price. However, no one can guess when the actual meltdown is going to start. So keep an eagle eye on your chart. As for as Indian market is concerned, it is expected to follow global cues as of now and you might see a moderate gain in indices today. However, when Zeta Stock Scanner starts showing you more red stocks than green on daily chart, it would be time to book your profits and make an early exit. For today, Grasim, Trent, GMRInfra, BEL, Titan and of course Mazdock seem to be all set to gain some more points. Happy Trading.
COMEX:HG1!
by jellygill
How to determine how far a correction will goTo assess the extent of a market correction, I examine the price action around Fibonacci retracement levels and use the RSI for additional confirmation. On the Comex Copper futures chart, the market has executed a 50% retracement and bounced significantly from that level. The RSI has corrected its overbought condition and is attempting to stabilize around the 40 level. I am optimistic about a potential recovery from here but will need further confirmation from either the RSI or the price action. The RSI could still fall and test the 30 level. At this stage, we cannot rule out a 61.8% retracement, though a 78.6% retracement seems unlikely given the current RSI position. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
COMEX:HG1!Education
by The_STA
1