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COFFEE trade ideas

Coffee in the morning!CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICA is the second most imported commodity in the world, after oil. Looking at the charts, it might strike one as a commodity that is just bumbling about, at least on shorter time frames, often at a slow pace. However, reality is that it is highly volatile, and prone to huge fluctuations in price. As an example, the price of Arabica is up 80% the last year. This followed a 50% drop from Feb 22 to Jan 23. In terms of relative volume, it is also one of the most traded commodities all over the world. So what drives prices, and what are the major deciding factors of this brown delight? As for most commodities, supply and demand are key. Brazil is the undisputed largest producer, with close to 40% of global supply. Other top producers include Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia. The two major types of coffee are Arabica and Robusta, with Arabica being the “prime” coffee. This is because it is much more delicate and needs more specific cultivation requirements, such as weather and altitude, to grow. It is also more prone to plant disease due to this, such as Coffee Leaf Rust. Weather conditions (such as frosts or droughts) heavily affect coffee-producing countries (like Brazil), and this can send prices skyrocketing. Because most of the coffee production takes place in developing countries, political instability and social unrest are also huge, potential factors in the supply of coffee. Add to this logistical challenges, and the price of shipping in such high volume, not helped by Covid which is still impacting shipping and the cost of shipping, all leading to higher prices. And still we have not touched financial speculation (yes, you and me.) and trader/analyst predictions. Coffee futures are traded many places, the two majors being ICE in New York (Arabica) and LIFFE in London (Robusta). These two decide the price, known as the C price. Price, as in the price of coffee. Earlier we touched on supply and demand, which is the sort of hamster wheel driving prices. Demand is rising, but on the flip side of this, the Russia-Ukraine war has affected demand (as it has so many other things). Russia is the sixth largest coffee consumer, and due to sanctions demand has been dampened. We all hope this war is temporary, so an end to it, I suppose depending on the outcome, could spark demand again. Another factor is a switch in demand from Arabica to Robusta. This is a lower priced bean, and in some of the worlds largest countries (China, India, Pakistan), there are signs of a switch in demand to Robusta. This is 40% of the world population but will of course take some time to affect market and prices. Chart: Like I said, price seems to bumble about and has for a long time kept within the boundaries of a rising wedge (Daily and 4H). Price has now surpassed the previous long-term high of $2.59050 from Feb 22, with a new high of $2.59326. Depending on how far you want to go back, there is no clear resistance ahead. As price has oscillated inside the range of the wedge for the last 5 months, one could expect a drop towards the $2.45 area, before turning up again. The 50EMA is steadily moving up above the 100EMA. As always, wait for a confirmed break of channel before going long. Or, short the return to base line, if you feel that is the immediate move.
CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICA
by WeRideAtDawn
Coffee Is Getting ExpensiveCoffee is in a massive rally on tight Brazil crop fears and if we take a look at the weekly chart, we can see it trading impulsively higher with space for more gains until it fully completes a five-wave bullish cycle by Elliott wave theory, just watch out on short-term 4th wave pullbacks. Basic Impulsive Bullish Pattern shows that Coffee can be trading in subwave "iii" of 3 of (3) of a five-wave bullish impulse of different degrees, so more gains can be seen after short-term 4th wave pullback.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEELong
by ew-forecast
COFFEE ARABICACOFFEE SHORT PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY ENTRY POINT : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG POSITION above red Line for SHORT POSITION INSTRUCTIONS: FOR risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20 PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY DO YOU WANT TO HAVE ACCURATE SIGNALS EVERY DAY? do you want to learn? The best indicators The best analyzes The best entry point The best sales areas How to make profit How to corver up losses How to stay profitable
CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICAShort
by RODDYTRADING
COFFEE - Futures - 4/1/2024This Trade was taken as net positions hit the highest amount this year at 16/4/2024 we had the highest positions in a 26 week period at -78,835 net positions, this was followed by a price action signal for a short trade. please know at this current time, We had a very dry season in Brazil and in vietnam which caused a massive price spike through out all year. The COT report shows us the net positioning being the highest as well as commercials are loading up on the sell side of the market.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by insanemalin
Seasonal trend in the growth of coffee pricesLet's talk about coffee because coffee lovers understand how important it is in daily life. In the business world, it's widely recognized that no meeting or deal is complete without at least one cup of coffee (or even more). ☕️ Now, let's focus on coffee futures. 📰 Technical analysis presents an interesting perspective for potential growth. The price is approaching a significant support level around $1.4 and is once again starting to rise. ☄️ During this uptrend, it successfully breaches key resistance levels in the vicinity of $1.5, creating a "repositioning" pattern for those considering buying. It seems like coffee season has arrived! ☀️ Right now, we're interested in the unclosed bullish gap at the level of $1.662-$1.6485. On the daily chart, there's an attempt to test the previous month's highest price, which is crucial for further growth. The scenario of closing the gap may come into play if the price falls to the order block levels within $1.6-$1.44, from which long-term purchases can be considered until the highest price is reached above the $2.0-$2.6 level. If a pullback occurs to the 1.2-1.3 zone, it may present an opportunity for buying with the potential for a 2-3 rise. In such a case, there's a high probability of subsequent upward movement after the pullback. ☕️ If you're interested in coffee and commodities futures analysis, feel free to hit the 🔥 button, and we can continue the discussion. ☕️📈
VANTAGE:COFFEELong
by Zk24
LOOK FOR BUYHello, As of 2023 February 24 (Time of analysis), Friday current price of Coffee is USD 189. The price hit the bottom in January 2023 and prices have been recovering since then. Though I do not fore see a sharp continuous rise in the prices of coffee. I am convinced that there are good opportunities for us to buy coffee once we see a correction forming. USD 180 will be a good place to buy coffee with target 1 being at USD 242. This is based on wave analysis coupled with fundamental analysis (demand for the product remains high coupled with poor weather conditions) Below more details about coffee www.visualcapitalist.com
SKILLING:COFFEELong
by thesharkke
11
RiskMastery's Day Trader Series - COFFEE EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Day Trader Series - Codes with short-term trading potential. In this edition, we'll be looking at PEPPERSTONE:COFFEE ... I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility. If price can move to and hold below $178.34 ... Bearish potential may be unlocked. My key downside targets include: - $175.16 (Conservative) - $167.01 (Medium) - $157.44 (Aggressive) If however price breaks above $182.99 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked. (My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart) Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future. If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below. Mr RM | Risk Mastery Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by Bullfinder-official
Long Coffee / Short Sugar: Soft Commodities Pair TradeI thought this one was pretty straightforward. Coffee looks PHENOMENAL for a long Sugar looks yucky after the huge run-up and is a shortable soft commodity hedge This stuff isn't that complicated. Supply issues get resolved in Sugar as they do in most commodities. Tbf I think Sugar is exhausted, I don't know if it will go down that much but I don't think it's going higher (much). I prefer to do pairs trades to reduce my overall market directional risk. Coffee is the key here, let's look at the CoT Speculative opinion below: Green is the commercial (hedges). Commercials can be hedged long or short. So a coffee company like Dunkin Donuts which would buy coffee futures to hedge their future purchasing needs, or short to hedge the beans they own but haven't sold to customers yet. There were tons expiring in June, little changes in June-Sep, and now new short hedges building. This is because they've presumably obtained their desired product from producers. I've circled December on the bottom in each year. The harvest season for coffee globally *mostly* ends around November, although it is technically year round. Certainly November-April are the months where very little is being harvested. So it is this period when merchandising contracts are likely completed and short hedges become initiated now that you are sitting on the raw harvested product delivered but unsold. Those hedges will need to be built, and are being built. November - April are the most seasonally kind months because of the lack of farmed raw product available, and uncertainty about next years yields. The technical chart looks amazing, and the short hedges are getting to a point where it becomes vulnerable to positional effects pushing it higher. I like 230 or so on Coffee, which is a lot of points from 173 (current price). Trade can be taken via futures where one coffee contract is roughly $64.5k and one sugar contract is roughly $30,000 to roughly 1:2 ratio KC:SB Not financial advice DYOR.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEELong
by wantonwallet
1