Nasdaq Down then Up New all time high incominghello guys this is my trade idea on the nasdaq NQ! / us100 i am looking for a down side movement first to create the low of the month then we are going up please share with me your thoughts
MNQ1! trade ideas
SEEK & DESTROY (Mondays Price Action) NQZ20241) Price at 12:00 am fails to take Buyside and breaks down lower over the London session and creates the low of the day.
2) We have the NWOG below price and have 9:30 open creating the opening range gap for the day. It is at this point in time the seek and destroy starts. Price jumps around, failing to take any real buy side or sell side out of the market. Price does not fill in the opening range gap, It does not deliver clean price action on and PD arrays. It spends way too much time in areas collecting everyone's stops without delivering higher or lower.
3) This is a day I should not have traded. I did trade in this mess and I got wrecked. This day I paid the tuition premium to the market. I learned my lesson and will avoid trading in these types of rough seas.
This was a day I would use for studying and journaling. No trade advice can be made from this.
NQ -First Week of October 2024Overall bullish on NQ. However if we get a daily close below friday's low coupled with a 4H MSS, my attention then moves to 20 Day IPDA EQ before continuation higher.
NQ for 9/30This is my NQ analysis for the week of 9/29
Price has just recently made a higher high; we are currently bouncing off a trend line and 0% level of the fib for the most recent high and low. The most relevant high and low shows levels that price may continue down to, after pulling back at the current level. There is a gap between the 0.62 and 0.50 level that needs to be filled. Price is below consolidation and only a few points away from an average price level.
The Calm Before the Storm: NASDAQ - $NQ1 Ready to Rally!CME_MINI:NQ1!
Clear price action similar to the lows in January and April before further continuation. Both scenarios printed expansion bars on the weekly, and we’re witnessing something quite similar with current prices.
It’s up to you to see it for yourself, but things look bullish for now, and bidding at $19,600 makes sense.
The idea invalidates a bit lower, as usual, but there's enough room to form another higher low.
Keep in mind that it broke the bearish market structure and made a HL after that. It would be risky to short when we're still above the point of control (POC).
In short: buying the retest of the POC and remaining bullish as long as the trend line is respected.
Aiming for all-time highs and beyond
NQ 4hr Review from yesterday9.27.24 7:30 am 4hr chart observations. Price tapped the 4hr orderblock that has been there since July, for a quick rejection yesterday. Lower resistance was the top of the previous range/ mother bar/double top from 9.19.24. Current range between 20,436 and 20,190. Orderblock still open above. Possible Rangebound day, possible bullish to retest orderblock.
20240927 NQI anticipate more upside during the opening range and reversal to the downside during AMS SB from 10 till 11am. PA has room for the upside but I would like to see SandD PA today with new LOD at the end of the day with ss raid.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/27/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20381.75
- PR Low: 20343.50
- NZ Spread: 85.5
Key schedule economic event
08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY)
Daily print advertising potential rollover below 20200
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 9/27)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 338.01
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 236K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
BEARISH PO3Daily bearish PO3
Manipulation higher back in premium
-H1 FVG / IFVG / OTE
Above midnight and NDOG
Daily wick C.E should hold
Before huge distribution downside
Target midnight / NDOG and Sellside below
NWOG as DOL
Tricky Spot Thursday's candle closed above the prior day's high, reaching the weekly SIBI, overnight in the Asian session the price rallied, consolidated in London, and Reversed In the NY Session
4hr market structure is still bullish but at the top of the range creating a bearish reversal with high volume that created a bearish SIBI retesting value area high or the 4hr trading range/4hr Fixed Volume profile the 4hr bullish bars that traded away from POC showed an increase in volume but the bearish volume was higher
m15 has two potential areas from long at 20,271.00 or at 20,140.00
but I'm being mindful of the 20,406.00 to 20,362.00 level that can act as resistance causing longs to get squeezed out of their positions
I will review what happens overnight
Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
Nasdaq - 80% Probability Higher - GTP
Reasons for Target (21,325) Being Hit:
Strong Uptrend: The market is clearly forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Momentum: Buyers are currently in control of the market, with price action continuing to push higher.
Interest Rate Expectations: Fed estimates of 2 more drops before Xmas which will provide further support for tech stocks and indices like Nasdaq.
Risks/Barriers to the Target:
Resistance at 20,750: A key resistance level could prevent the price from advancing quickly. Consolidation or a pullback might happen here.
Macroeconomic News: Unexpected news (like inflation data or Fed comments) could cause short-term volatility, impacting the trend.
Probability of Hitting 21,325:
Estimated Probability: 80/100
This high probability assumes continued market momentum, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and successful breaks of nearby resistance levels.
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment : Current narrative is that hedge funds are continuing to sell tech. You don’t need to know that. You can see it on the chart. The bear gap got smaller but is still open while other markets making daily new ath. Given the current overall market environment, I doubt bears can keep this selling up and market below 20600. Bulls printed the 4th consecutive daily bull bar. At some point one side will give up and I heavily favor the bulls.
Bulls had the strong Globex bull breakout but the selling spike from the US open was unexpected and a big surprise in strength. Bulls pulled back exactly to the 50% retracement afterwards. Key level for more upside or more downside.
current market cycle: Most dominant pattern is the broad bull channel and the nested bull wedge with the August and September lows.
key levels: 20000 - 21600
bull case: Bulls want the retest of 21215 and have all the arguments on their side, once they close the bear gap to 20670. We are in W3 of this current bull trend and the measured move from W1 is around 21000. If you only look at the daily chart, do you honestly go “I want to sell this”. Ofc not. You want to get long. Only below 20000 many bulls will begin to doubt the strength of this move up.
Invalidation is below 20000.
bear case: Bear gap is the last argument for the bears but it’s so weak, I expect a give up bar tomorrow to close this week max bullish and have a clear buy signal going into next week. Not saying bears can not have a miracle reversal like they did on 2024-07-11 or 2024-08-22.
Invalidation is above 19670.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 20000. Targets above are 19700 and then 21000/21215.
medium-long term: Outlook was wrong. Bulls are currently having another shot at retesting the peak bubble highs to make another one. If we get there, it could be the short of a decade opportunity.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day : Long during Globex obviously where market held above the 5m 20ema for 270 points. Selling the US open was obviously the best trade but difficult imo. Market rallied so hard, that strong of a reversal is not common.
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NQ Bullish with Signs of a Potential Reversal in Early OctoberThe Nasdaq 100 ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) futures continue to exhibit a strong uptrend, driven by market optimism and supportive economic factors. As seen on the chart, the Bonsai trend indicator remains bullish, signaling the ongoing upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as we approach a critical resistance zone, where multiple technical and external factors suggest the potential for a pullback.
Key Technical Levels and Signals
Resistance at 20,600 : The price is nearing a significant resistance zone between 20,500 and 20,600, where previous highs have been met with seller pressure. The market may struggle to break through this zone in the short term, leading to possible consolidation or retracement.
Bearish Strength on Oscillators : The Bonsai OS is starting to signal an incoming bearish strength, where the oscillator fails to make new highs while the price continues to rise. This divergence suggests that the current bullish move may be losing momentum, increasing the probability of a reversal or correction in the near term.
Short-Term Retracement : A retracement to the 19,800-20,000 region would be healthy for the overall trend, providing potential buying opportunities for traders waiting for a dip. This level aligns with previous support zones and retracement levels, making it a logical area for price to stabilize before another move upward.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors Affecting NQ
U.S. Elections and Tax Policy : The upcoming U.S. election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is creating uncertainty around future tax policies, particularly regarding capital gains and unrealized gains taxation. Investors may start adjusting their portfolios as we get closer to October, historically a volatile month for the markets.
Global Conflicts and Economic Risks : Rising tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan add further geopolitical risk. Market participants are keeping a close eye on potential escalations, as these conflicts could shift sentiment toward a risk-off environment, impacting indices like the Nasdaq 100.
Fed Policy and Economic Data : The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has temporarily buoyed the markets, but upcoming data releases—particularly around inflation and employment—could change the tone. Economic surprises in early October could lead to volatility, especially if the data fails to support the current bullish narrative.
Conclusion: Bullish But Cautious
The overall Bonsai indicator continues to signal an uptrend, and the market looks poised to push higher if it can break through the 20,600 resistance zone. However, the oscillator's bearish divergence and external political risks suggest a potential reversal or at least a short-term correction in the first week of October. Traders should monitor these signals closely and consider adjusting their positions accordingly. Keep an eye on the VIX as well, which has been known to spike during periods of heightened uncertainty, offering opportunities to hedge against increased volatility.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/26/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20255.25
- PR Low: 20232.00
- NZ Spread: 51.75
Key schedule economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders
GDP
09:20 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Breaking out towards ATHs, next stop 20600 pivot
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 9/26)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 341.04
- Volume: 25K
- Open Int: 232K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Stairway to Heaven - R2F Model #1This is one of my models, named 'Stairway to Heaven'. Whilst I am an ICT trader, I developed this model myself. My models are considered POIs where I may look for a trade, but all my entries are based on using PD Array in a fractal nature, along with Time Theories.
Watch the vid, if you have any questions on it let me know.
- R2F
Bullish into Weekly SIBIWednesday's candle closed above the prior day's high, reaching the weekly high as well as the previous month's high, we could potentially see the price continue to rally into weekly sibi
4hr market structure is still bullish but after the rally, the price has now closed above 4hr swing-high
4hr Fixed Volume profile shows the POC is at the high of a price and now price action is moving away from that area in a bullish fashion
m15 has two potential areas from long at 20,221.00 or at
if the Asian session continues to expand we will have to see how London's action is traded especially if the price reaches the w-sibi first in the overnight session which could result in a NY session reversal
Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
Nasdaq ( NQ futures ) Next 20.434 - 20.482Ray's NQ Daily target 20.177 was almost hit, 20.171 today he posted on X )) He expext tomorrows News to send price to his targets 20.434 - 20.482.
Long $QQQ15min ema still bullish. Expect low is near for the day. Three green days in a row are coming. Sept 30- $491 calls 1.13
