ES OverNight Price Action pre-CPI 8-14-24Going over the price Action ES Overnight into the CPI Report today. size down, manage risk no A+ setup = No trades.
MES1! trade ideas
Wednesday CPI reactionThe S&P 500 CPI reaction reported tomorrow can add to the upper momentum if it indicates a cooling-off of inflation. A close above 5490 would be the next objective and will indicate buyers commitment.
AMP Futures - Working with Charts - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will provide a general overview how to navigate working with charts with TradingView mobile app.
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis.
My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000.
Best to all,
Chris
s'il vous plait E-MiniMarket top priced in
5 wave correction still at play
Wave 4 cannot go into Wave 1, per Frost & Pretcher
Extension left to be seen in this structure
Could extend on wave 5, forming a large "A" Wave
ES is on track for 5500 and NQ aiming for 19,464In my latest video, I break down why I'm bullish on NQ and ES short-term. Not fading these rallies. I rely on Bollinger Bands, AVWAP, Beacon Indicator, and a 5-day SMA for my tech analysis.
This is a mean reversion back to the primary trend—the kind of move that packs serious power. 📈
S&P Pending further liquidation ? ( 8/12/2024 - 8/16/2024)The S&P is currently failing to break out of a statistically significant level as the market awaits further U.S. economic data for the week: 8/12 - 8/16. As long as the price action remains between 5,350 to 5,450 and continues to fail its break-out to reverse the primary trend in this short-term 'break' in broader selling, then we have to suspect that any bad economic releases or geopolitical events can be the catalyst for the next round in selling.
Disclaimer -
The author's information and publications are NOT meant to be, and DO NOT constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice or recommendation.
ES Lvls & targets Aug 13thAfter the recent 200+ point rally, investors have been establishing new structure. The targets I provided based on the 5363 reclaim were 5372, 5378, and 5400..all hit, with 5400 being tagged overnight.
As of now: 5378-82 and 5362 (both tested) are supports. Staying above keeps 5393, 5400, and 5414+ in play. If 5362 fails, watch for a dip to 5338
uptrend has formed*MARKET UPDATE:**
Following retracements we saw yesterday in the S&P500 futures, the market has staged a strong bullish rally overnight, which has continued into this morning, and has formed an uptrend going into todays session.
ES Overnight Price Action rEview 8-13-24Going over the price action OVernight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us for the upcoming RTH. planning both long and short scenarios.
20240813 ESI anticipate some upside with likely spike to the upside on the hills of the 8.30 HI news. => After that move to the upside I anticipate the reversal to the downside at least to the equilibrium of the last dealing range. The HI news at 8.30am can create a lot of volatility that is why the upside spike can move further and reache higher that it is marke on the chart. Nevertheless the general view is as mentioned above. I am very interested to see 8.30 price action.
S&P rounding up for the next leg DOWN to 5,000 support?The S&P is currently failing to break out of a statistically significant area as buyers fade and await U.S. economic data for the week: 8/12 - 8/16.
Set up for TuesdayMonday's action provides a set up for Tuesday's movement in the S&P 500. The data structure implies evening up and going neutral into the Tuesday PPI fundamentals. The ideal close on Tuesday would be a close above 5400.
AMP Futures - NEW Feature - Market Replay (All Charts)In this idea we will demonstrate how to access the new feature to use market replay for all charts in Tradingview.
ES price Action REview RTH 8-12-24Going over the days price action looking for clues as to how we could have traded today better. coming up with a plan to trade the Overnight session. do all your work, manage risk, and execute when your system sais go.
S&P's Path After VIX 50E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5370.25, up 22.00 on Friday and down 5.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,616.00, up 90.75 on Friday and 59.75 on the week
Inflation and the consumer will be front and center this week, but we also see equally important anecdotes driving markets, which I will get to next. Today at 10:00 am CT, the NY Fed will release 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations. Fed Chair Powell has called inflation expectations a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it: if everyone expects gas prices to be higher next week, they will be filling the car this week and thus driving prices higher. Tomorrow morning, we will get the July PPI report before CPI Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. The July Retail Sales report and earnings from Home Depot will also be released tomorrow morning. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is due Thursday.
Markets will ebb and flow in response to this data, but we do believe last Monday’s volatility event laid the groundwork for higher prices in the weeks to come, barring a severe escalation in geopolitical tensions. The Olympics’ closing ceremony was yesterday, and it is important to remember that only days after the 2022 Winter Olympics closed in China, Russia invaded Ukraine. Tensions are running hotter between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East than in recent weeks. As for the volatility spike, last week, we compared the event to August 2015 and February 2018. Outside of the pandemic, these were the last two instances the VIX hit 50, and upon such, it also marked a low in the S&P. It is important to understand that after a significant rally in the weeks to come during both instances, we did see a retest into the range of the session in which the VIX hit 50. Are we in the clear? Certainly not. However, the VIX is now trading at 20, and upon volatility suppression, it is very reasonable to expect the market to drift higher, at minimum, at least for a trade.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are extending their range higher ahead of the U.S. open. We are looking for the first 30-60 minutes after the bell to help define an acceptance of the higher range and usher in continued buying. We must see the E-mini S&P hold out above major three-star support at 5359.35-5366.50 and positively digest a retest into our Pivot and point of balance at 5370.25-5376, which aligns with settlement from August 2nd.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5396.75**, 5404**, 5417.25-5420***, 5432.50-5441.25***, 5480.25-5485.75***
Pivot: 5370.25-5376
Support: 5459.25-5366.50***, 5348.25-5350.25**, 5333-5337.75**, 5319.25-5324.75***, 5306-5309***, 5292.25**, 5278.75-5280.75**, 5259.75-5266.25***, 5227.50-5231***, 5202.25-5204.25**, 5189-5192.25***, 5146-5161.25***, 5120**, 5092-5102.75***, 5059.75-5078.75*** 4988.25***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 18,725-18,761***, 19,023****
Pivot: 18,598
Support: 18,525-18,557***, 18,484**, 18,404-18,438**, 18,323-18,358***, 18,179-18,208***, 18,064***, 17,966-17,987***, 17,856-17,893**, 17,711-17,741***, 17,509***, 17,333-17,398****, 17,110-17,180****, 16,826-16,870***
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
20240812 ESI anticipate a -PO3 day today. It is Monday and PA can tend to be less reliable but nevertheless. I anticipate more downside today, I would like to see one more move to the upside with bs raid and reversal to the downside after. 9.30am is very important time point to watch. Downside DOL is the close to equilibrium of the last dealing range and top of the w bisi.
ES Lvls & Targets for Aug 12thLast Friday, my target was 5378, and we reached it late in the day after buyers gave us 55-point rally. This level is the next key area, and we spent the night consolidating/basing here. Continue holding your runners.
As of now: buyers defended 5363 overnight, with 5338-42 being the main support that needs to hold. This keeps 5400, 5414, and 5438 in play. Watch for a dip below 5338.
OverNight Price Action REview ES 8-12-24Going over the price action from Sunday night open to pre market. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. only A+ trade setups today. no setup no trade.
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise and test the 55th EMA and then fall to the area between 5133.75 and 5091.75.
Weekly Trade Ideas & Market Crash Prediction UpdateI'll try to start doing videos with some of my my favorite trade ideas each week every Sunday and potentially Wednesday. Here's five ideas for this week, along with more thoughts on the state of the market and my crash prediction.
fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve'
over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of?
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the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around.
i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot,
before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election.
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if all goes well, the timeline will look like this:
> we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot"
> we drop -20% into the presidential election.
> the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market:
> next bull run begins.
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i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller.
just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me.
do with this information what you will.
🌙
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday.
current market cycle: Bear trend started with the drop from 5600 down to 5119. The second leg will bring us to or below 5000, where I expect much more sideways movement again. That big round number will probably be fought over for the next weeks until more bad news come around or earnings Q3 will show clear deterioration.
key levels: 5000-5500
bull case: Bulls already recovered a bit more than 50% of the 480 point sell off and if they get above 5450, the chances of a bear trap and not a bear trend, are bigger than a continuation of the selling. Bulls want exactly that and Monday/Tuesday will be key for the next impulse. A daily close above the 20ema would also turn the momentum in favor of the bulls again. Their target is 5430 and then a daily close above the daily ema.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears need to step in and keep the market below 5430. That’s it. If they get strong selling again on Monday, I do think that below 5300 most bulls will cover and we see a retest of 5200 and lower. Bears still see this as a pullback in a bear trend and 50-60% is a normal retracement.
Invalidation is above 5430.
outlook last week:
short term : Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5376 and now we are at 5370. Market sold off to 5119 so my read was perfect. Down there I wrote “you can’t get bearish at these lows” and the pullback was expected and written of. Hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there.
medium-long term: Same as dax. Want to see a break of this bear flag before I calculate new targets and draw a better channel. We will likely see 5000 before end of October.
current swing trade: None. Will load again on shorts on Monday/Tuesday if bears appear again.
chart update: Added second bear gap, adjusted the possible bear channel and removed all broken bull trend lines.
