Not looking for a big move lowerSeller's return to the daily chart of the S&P 500 on Monday. Follow-through would be expected but not a dramatic move without new fundamental information.
MES1! trade ideas
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.08 - 12.13.24Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened with a sell from the Edge towards VAH of lower HTF Range but we didn't have enough selling to get back into Previous Value where we have seen acceptance in previous week, instead we held over 6030s and pushed inside the Edge, as noted from last weeks prep to see higher prices we needed to stay around the Edge and hold over 6050s, I was thinking that this 6074 - 54 Edge would keep the price in but instead we were able to hold the Edge, got a failed breakdown from it on Tuesday RTH and a Wednesday Globex push over the Edge which couldn't get back inside during RTH Open, this move put us in new HTF Range and inside 6065 - 6115 Intraday Range. We finished the week with some sells from above VAL area and price holding above the Edge around VAL.
This Week :
As noted last week price action has changed, Volume has died out and it is really time to tighten things up and lower expectations from moves until we see new change. Going into this week we are inside 6070s - 6200s +/- HTF Range, we have buying over the lower Intraday Range and over HTF Edge, we have selling at VAL and so far attempts to push into above Value are not strong enough to give us a good break and hold over instead they find profit taking on every push. Holding over lower Edge implies stability and price can continue balancing over those areas, we can't expect too much selling from here unless we can get back under lower Intraday Edge and find Volume to get under 6050s, but we also have to be careful on the long side as we are now in distribution at higher prices on lower volume which means buyers don't have to keep chasing price up too much higher just yet. We could see price to continue holding and grinding around this new VAL area with attempts to push into new Value, inside the Value we have to be careful as until we accept inside its Mean and start transacting over it then we could continue seeing the price hold under the Mean and come out of Value towards VAL/under. I would watch for possible balancing in these 6090s - 6120s areas until we show acceptance over/under that would want to continue over the Mean or stay under lower Intraday Edge.
Flag Patterns and VolatilityI am noticing a sequence of repeating patterns in the Vast Volatility Treasure trove indicator, which is by far my favorite volatility indicator i have ever seen, shows various calculations of historical and implied volatility, all sorts of models are represented here and I do not know much about many of them, I have simply been an observer of HV10-90d vs IV 30-90d and I have found this VVTT study to replicate that well.
Moving on, I also trade mainly off of flag patterns and wedge patterns. Here I notice how HV and IV were both elevated in the last drop, but Friday's 1h chart seems to show the beginning of a bullish flag consolidation pattern.
The Volatility supports this because the dark blue and light green lines represent HV and the more deep colors represent IV.
The HV has risen as it did when we sold off, but only halfway as much, and the IV has also expanded and risen a bit in the sell off at the end of Friday session, but not as much as it had before in the last selloff and there isn't room or time for it to do so as it had before, so what is more likely is that volatility will fall and as the bullish flag becomes more and more clear on others charts across the markets, I believe there is a chance of ES hitting 7k before the market tops out for the year.
RAAM 1234//@version=5
strategy("MNQ EMA Strategy", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
emaShortLength = input.int(50, "Short EMA Length")
emaLongLength = input.int(200, "Long EMA Length")
stopLossPerc = input.float(1.0, "Stop Loss (%)") // 1% stop loss
takeProfitPerc = input.float(2.0, "Take Profit (%)") // 2% take profit
// Calculate EMAs
emaShort = ta.ema(close, emaShortLength)
emaLong = ta.ema(close, emaLongLength)
// Entry Condition: When Short EMA crosses above Long EMA
longCondition = ta.crossover(emaShort, emaLong)
// Exit Condition: When Short EMA crosses below Long EMA
exitCondition = ta.crossunder(emaShort, emaLong)
// Strategy Logic
if (longCondition)
// Open a new long position if not already in one
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
// If we want to automatically exit the long position via Stop Loss and Take Profit:
strategy.exit(
"Exit Long",
from_entry = "Long",
stop_loss = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stopLossPerc/100),
limit = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + takeProfitPerc/100)
)
// Also, if exit condition is triggered by EMA cross:
if (exitCondition)
strategy.close("Long")
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets
The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices.
In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense.
Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines
With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors:
1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices.
2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced.
3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations.
Outlook and strategies
In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to:
1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour.
2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility.
3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits.
In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
20241220 ESI anticipate at least one more low to be made with ss raid. 8.30 HI news will be the moment to look for the signs of the upside TGIF scenario. I anticipate some upside move during AMS and sideways into the end of the day. NWOG and ORG Thursday CE are my upside DOL.
SPX ESH25 - What potentially comes next in the sequence - FreeI initially shared this chart on a paid subscriber platform but am now offering it for free. I hope it provides helpful context. Please proceed with caution.
ES testing 6040 zone and reverse to enter the range 5735-5920Based on Wyckoff, we are now in UT phase were we should go back to the range between the 2 red lines.
the fact that we made high, got back to the red line to do reversal and made higher high => and now back to the same reversal point indicates weakness .
From here came my conclusion that max we will hit 6040 zone and go down to the lower range 5735-5920.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
ES Resistance.I am not saying this is a short trade, but if we start breaking down in this area, I would expect lower on the ES. My fibs are pulled from the prior yearly swing highs. This is a major area of resistance. If we gain this box and hold we will go higher, but the hold must be on the high time frame charts like the monthly and quarterly. Thoughts?
ES down (weekly chart)today was fomc, ES dropped hard on a large kill candle
Weekly chart:
-looks like a reversal on price action; last week also had inc volume on small body candle, failing to break higher
-the rsi (momentum) turned down a while back; the rsi looks to be moving toward the bottom of these combined channels - the green uptrend channel is very wide, so ES can make a big pullback and still be in a technical uptrend in momentum; tbd
**I have not listened to anything related to FOMC yet; everything published here is pure technical analysis
ES down - broke trendline, 50day, rsiES:
Daily:
-broke below uptrend rsi channel
-broke below uptrend price action
-inc volume
Weekly: (not shown here)
-rsi trending downward within a larger uptrend channel
-looks like a topping candle unless Th/Fri are stellar bounce back days
If today started a true correction and there is no fake out, one-day-wonder break below these trendlines, it should last a few weeks. tbd...
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath.
comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday)
bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks.
Invalidation is below 6100.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is above 6200.
short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
MOVE, VIX, YIELD and Equity misalignWhen the Equity does not move along with the other three indexes, which are at extreme levels, I am not sure if risk on is a wise idea.
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
FED Interest Rate Decision
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
FOMC Meeting
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Wifi Back up! Morning Updates Back Rolling!Last week centered entirely around one key level: the 6060 magnet, which set up every trade of last week and delivered again Sunday evening. As posted in full plan here yesterday, 6060 needed to reclaim to trigger a long, and we’ve already seen +10 points off it.
As of now: 6075 is next, reaction there, followed by 6088 and 6098 if buyers can push through. Supports are 6056-61. If those fail, expect a dip to 6035-40.
ES/SPY/SPX Road to 7000 & beyond - A plausible scenarioThesis : In the past when market rests above 1.618 extension from the previous move, suggesting consolidation and potential move higher. If price is a fractal and we are in melt up scenario..then mid year paves the way to 6900+ and post that 5600 by year end..check it out
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook.
Quote from last week:
comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate.
Invalidation is above 6120.
outlook last week:
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
MES1! a nice setup to the downside.Looking on the HTF, my gut say we are bound for the last level presented in the idea.
We have 3 potential pivot therefore 3 take profit areas.
1. 6042.75 - If this becomes support we are unto a big move to the upside. A running SL will be made.
2. 6029.75 - This support is a very strong one which is highly probable to be the pivot we are looking for (IF WE GET ACCEPTANCE BELOW 6042.75)
3. 6015.00 - Expecting a huge bounce here therefore a high probable long setup can be prepared here
