ES1! trade ideas
ES levels and targets Oct 31stAfter a full week stuck in the same range, ES finally broke lower, triggering shorts yesterday evening—the first breakdown in over a week, as outlined in yesterday’s 4pm trading plan. Bears have the advantage now until a resistance level reclaims.
As of now: 5828 needs to recover to establish a potential low. Next downside targets are 5800, followed by 5792-88.
Anticipating a Retracement Before Shorting. wait for news/openThe tech sector has experienced a decline following the Q3 earnings reports. I am looking for a balanced retracement to yesterday's closing value. From that area, I plan to initiate a continued short position.
ES Price Action Review RTH 10-30 and Overnight 10-31Going over the RTH ES WEdnesday and the overnight session. Reviewing for clues the market was leaving us and we're coming up with a plan for today.
ES1 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonicThe Bullish 5-0 pattern which has been at play over the last few years has finally run its course to price target at 1.272 extension. A bearish ABCD Extended pattern has formed recently, with retracement, but has reversed out of the prz and should drop rapidly to ABCD point C ~4350. This coincides with active bear deep crab harmonic on NQ1! (see prev post).
This is a Weekly chart intended to show trend reversal and swing trading at key pivots--not for intraday.
Seller's returnSellers returned to the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was looking for an up close on Wednesday but what we found was a skittish market that broke to the downside. Follow through to the downside could be tough because there are strong levels of support for the market to break through.
2 Day Anchored VWAP on ES futuresInitially you have to understand what the volume weighted average price (VWAP) is. Broadly it can be defined as: Total dollars traded divided by the total shares for the period studied Vwap= ∑(Price∙Volume)/∑(Volume)
This means that VWAP is more responsive to volume than price and its calculation does not depend on the timeframe we are in. It is also the most common benchmark used to compute transaction costs.
what is the anchored VWAP ?
The AVWAP is an indication of the average transaction price of the participants for however long it’s plotted. Normally the VWAP resets everyday at the start of the trading session, but the anchored vwap will continue its calculations from the candle it was anchored until the present bar meaning no resets in that period.
In an uptrend buyers will try to defend that average entry price when price comes back to it. in the uptrend when the AVWAP is below price that means that the average participant is making money, when price crosses under they start to lose money and that could lead them to try to exit and push price even lower. So the cross of the AVWAP can mark a change on the near term trend. It is very important to mark the AVWAP from significant price levels or catalysts, in this case we will analyze the 2 Day anchored VWAP (2DAVWAP) on CME_MINI:ES1! futures.
Where do you anchor the 2DAVWAP ?
For example, if it's a wednesday morning you want to anchor the VWAP at monday 5pm CME_MINI:ES1! futures open. An easy way of finding the right candle to anchor is checking the "session breaks" option in the chart settings so after your session break line shows the next candle (in any timeframe) that will be the one anchored so you can trade it at the next session.
How to trade it ?
1. It is very important that CME_MINI:ES1! is in a clear and strong uptrend, this is a following the trend strategy. It can also be used in downtrends but backtesting it has proven to me that long setups are the best setups. If CME_MINI:ES1! has been uptrending and then starts consolidating but starts to move up from a good support level you can also enter a setup on that market context.
2. Anchor the VWAP from the session open and wait until next day.
3. Wait until price retraces to the 2DAVWAP the next day. It only works when the retracement happens the next day, don't trade that anchored VWAP further than that.
2. Watch the price action - Volume when it reaches the AVWAP. Price action and volume should Show an effort of buyers to continue the trend, Candle should reach the 2DAVWAP and form a hammer candlestick closing above the AVWAP in the 15 min TF (best entry point, wait for candle close).
3. Mark the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from previous day low to the present day high. The lowest price can go for you to still consider entering the trade is the 50% retracement, lower than that you dismiss the trade. Go with confidence if there is a confluence between fib and the 2DAVWAP.
4. Set a Stop loss based on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is always try to enter the closest to were you would be wrong in a trade, which can be below the 50% retracement for example.
5. Set a Target profit based on maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is try to exit at least at previous highs if there is volatility on the day.
Finally, the entry could be at any time of the day, it could happen at 2 am EST or it could happen at 10 am EST, it really does not matter. Always take trading seriously, stay discipline and do your own backtesting and find what works the best for you. I will be posting more educational posts on AVWAP. This strategy has only been backtested in CME_MINI:ES1! futures.
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again.
current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range
key levels: 5800 - 5870
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
S&P500: In a channel, choppy, and likely breaking downAs forecasted, it was a choppy day & likely going to continue tomorrow.
If you want to be trading, then it's better to time your entry at the nearest to the support level & take profits at the next resistance level, and same on the Sell side.
Take care & always trade within your risk!
MES Long 10/29/2024MES is in a SW + uptrend. Placed a long position in confluence DZ (upper one). Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and top of measured move.
ES Levels and targets Oct 30thFor the past two weeks, ES has been forming a large flag pattern with 5864 acting as a key mid-pivot. Yesterday, I was eyeing a rally to the upper range at 5882, 5891+, and we hit 5892 overnight.
As of now: Expect some complex chop. Supports are 5864 and 5855; staying above these keeps 5882, 5891, and 5896 in play. If 5855 fails, I’m looking for a drop to 5838.
ES levels for today . Levels of interest and targets for today. All laid out the previous day with our custom indicator
RTH ES Price ACtion Review 10-29-24Going over the price action in the ES RTH had a beautiful breakdown failure and the market ran hard and recovered a major level and then squeezed. great day to review and replay for future reference.
Bullish set upThe structure in the daily chart in the S&P 500 is bullish. It is also important to remember the broader structure is a neutral zone which implies a sideways market. The challenge will be for buyers to make new highs. 5900 is the next objective to the upside.
S&P500 E-mini: Sideways for awhilePrice action analysis of the S&P500 E-mini.
It is likely going to be choppy for awhile. So it is better to stay aside until a clearer direction is formed.
Overall, it's still in an uptrend, but we might see a few more bearish Daily candles.
Overnight ES price Action REview 10-29-24going over the price action overnight and looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. our lean is lower and then a possible long. no A+ trade setups no trades.
Going long on the open, taking profit at Y close.Small fast trade, bullish open. Trailing stop close
ES levels and targets Oct 29thAfter rallying to the 5882 target yesterday, ES spent the rest of the day chopping around 5864-65 support. This level remains the pivot/magnet of a two-week range, and we’re not done with it yet—it was lost overnight.
As of now: 5843-46 is the next major support level below. If that doesn’t hold, look for 5834 and 5815. Bulls need to reclaim 5855 to rally back toward 5864-65, with 5878+ beyond that.
Long trade Buyside trade
LND Session AM
4.00 am (NY time)
Entry 5864.25
Profit level 5915.25 (0.87%)
Stop level 5854.00 (0.17%)
RR 4.98
Reason for entry
Phase D Whykoff Method
MES Potential Upside Breakout
With support forming along trend line and upcoming news events, looking for price to break to the upside and potentially re-test highs at 5,900.
Waiting for an excuseThe structure on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies a market waiting for an excuse for a directional move. The overall structure as we talked about in the video is neutral. The directional bias for the structure is for move lower.
