BTC Planning Short Trade From Extreme Supply Target CME GAPPlanning Swng Short Trade Above 71k on BTC and the target is atleast 56 k which is CME GAP & the neck Line of Inverse H&S
BTC1! trade ideas
Focus List Review Longer Term 4hr Charts Going over our Focus list looking for direction and clues as to how to position ourselves for the upcoming week in our Power Portfolio.
BTC CME Futures update - July 18 2024#BTC CME futures chart is also showing that there's gap in 58,790 - 60,845 zone and it's possible that price aims to fill it!
so it's important to see price's reaction to this gap: will it support the price or not?!
it's worth mentioning that since last summer, almost all 4H gaps were filled in a short time after they were created!
So it's high possibility that the gap will be filled this time as well!
Bitcoin - Is it ready to challenge the top of its 3-year channelI will confess I am not great at Elliott wave but does anyone else view the sideways to lower price action on Bitcoin as an ‘a-b-c’ pattern?
If it is, we should see the market head back up to the recent peak at 74415 and the top of the 3-year channel at 76760
#bitcoin #elliotwave #technicalanalysis #markets
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Bitcoin CME Futures capI am seeing a cap between 57895 to 60845 in Bitcoin CME Futures chart. These caps tend to get filled or retested and it can mean that there is a pullback to happen before Bitcoin reaches to 69500.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and this analysis does not take into account your individual financial situation or investment objectives. Any financial decision you make based on this information are solely your responsibility. Please consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BTCUSD GAP CMEBTC ~ CME Gap
#BTC We found the CME Gap here. Stay alert to the possibility of closing this GAP first.
BTC1! - Will the Gap Fill ???BTC1!: The Gap That Refuses to Be Ignored
A gaping hole in the Bitcoin futures chart is calling for attention.
Will the market obey its magnetic pull?
The Story of the Gap: The gap in BTC1! (Bitcoin futures) likely formed due to a significant price movement outside of regular trading hours. This could be caused by:
News Events: DONALD J TRUMP
$BTC call to the DAY!!! Called Capitulation few days ago!Not one to brag but....... TO THE DAY!!!!!!!
How long, how many months, have we been posting this chart with phase 1 and phase 2 of #BTC???
Well, first let's see where CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes today. But so far it is looking good at a close on the EXACT day of phase 2.
FYI
#bitcoin volume is pretty good and still a lot of time left untill the end of the day.
#crypto
BTC breaking out to new ATH?Hey traders!
The short scenario didn't work out, and we grew so fast that a huge gap formed in the futures market.
So, most likely, we're going to close this gap, and then the growth will continue. Given that we're in the middle of summer and approaching August, I expect we will see further growth. However, we will also need more confirmations, such as a golden cross and higher volumes, as current volumes are not very high.
Your thoughts?
Nice big gap on bitcoin Be aware there is a CME futures gap down to 58k
That’s got to be filled if btc is to carry on its upwards motion
$btc short to fill cme gap i have been stopped out on my previous 2 btc setups . so i have another try cause i respect my stoploss/ risk management(its not about being right but rather following ur plan) so btc has broken current parabolic trend i expect a retest of the breakout zone and filling of cme gap .
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
From K1 to K3, it is a three soldiers advancing pattern,
K3 close below the long-term uptrend line.
It is a bad signal for the long-term holders.
It seems that the following candles will keep falling to test the neck line.
The problem for the bull force is lacking enough demands.
If the following candles fall to test the 0.382-0.5Fib area to find enough demands,
The bull market will likely recover its strength.
The potential valuable area to increase long positions at about 58-54K.
I still think it is a long-term bull market,
But it must be verified by the following candles.
If the following candles close below the neck line,
the risk will sharply increase.
CME - Giant Gap OpenedWith BTC's recent pump over the weekend we have seen a gap form. We have been monitoring these gaps in this price rage as they have been extremely relevant and usually get filled.
Here is that previous post:
Of course, some major world events have lead to this increase in price most likely on the increased probability Trump becomes president, but either way this is how the chart has been painted.
If this gap is to be filled over the next couple days it is probably the last time we see $58k before the FWB:73K level is broken. Prepare for major volatility this week as BTC/ALTs begin to break their downtrends and start to establish new uptrends.
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC.
We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto.
May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top.
First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases
(Letters A - C)
A
The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings.
It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure.
-------
B
$ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in.
These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts.
Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant.
($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.)
-------
C
2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done.
Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore.
It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating.
It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout.
Have a great weekend!!!
(pls see profile for more info)
BTC is down >10%; Is this a buy-the-dip moment?Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good buy, and just because something is expensive does not mean it is a sound investment. This investment adage applies to Bitcoin (“BTC”) ever more so than now.
Bitcoin prices dropped 11% over the past week, triggered by substantial BTC sales by the German government. Concerns loom about the forthcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which are likely to increase near term supply.
Persistent downward pressure is anticipated as further sales are pending. Yet BTC ETFs are witnessing significant inflows, indicating that investors are capitalizing on lower prices.
This paper explores a hypothetical spread trade involving short micro BTC futures and long micro-ETH futures, given the near term headwinds facing BTC and the tailwinds of ETF approval imminent for ETH.
BTC DECLINES 11% DUE TO LARGE SALES
BTC prices have plummeted by 11% since July 1st, breaching the critical USD 60,000 support level and 200-day moving average.
This sharp decline was propelled by a series of negative factors:
1) German government liquidating its BTC holdings: The German government has been liquidating its BTC holdings which were seized by the German police earlier this year. The government has already liquidated 10,000 BTC (USD 550 million at current prices) since mid-June. Crucially, the German government still holds more than 42,000 BTC (USD 2.3 billion) which could have a major impact on markets if sold. The consistent outflows to exchanges in July suggests the impact could be felt in the near term.
2) Mt. Gox begins repayments: On Friday 5/July, Mt. Gox stated that it had started transferring BTC and BCH to its customers 10 years after the exchange was hacked. More than 47,000 BTC was moved out of the Mt. Gox cold wallets on 5/July, suggesting the repayments are ongoing. Given the size of the transfer, the impact could be substantial. While the repayments will take place in a staggered manner, most customers are expected to receive their BTC within the next six months. Aggregate repayments will total up to 140,000 BTC.
3) Large Long Liquidations: Due to the sharp market moves in the past week, BTC derivatives saw large liquidations for both long and short positions. However, the overall liquidations were much larger last week. BTC longs worth more than USD 210 million were liquidated on 4/July and 5/July. The large liquidations further exacerbated the decline. Large short liquidations over the past 12 hours suggest volatility persists in both directions.
Source: CoinGlass
4) Fear Sentiment Dominates BTC: BTC’s fear and greed index has rapidly fallen to its lowest level in the past year. Over the past month, sentiment has shifted rapidly from extreme greed to fear. Heightened fear sentiment could impact the resilience of BTC holders. At the same time, periods of extreme fear can also represent buying opportunities.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Long-term BTC holders (HODLers) who have not moved their tokens in more than 1Y have been remarkably resilient so far.
Although the balance from this cohort has declined 7% YTD, it has been due to GBTC outflows, the impact of which was absorbed by other ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC.
As sentiment swings the other way given the current sharp decline, more holders could start to sell their BTC.
5) BTC ETFs saw huge inflows last week: Following a mixed June which saw outflows from BTC ETFs total USD 1 billion, ETFs are once more seeing inflows. Since 27/June, more than USD 200 million have flowed. The largest inflow was on Friday 5/July, when price fell sharply. This suggests ETF buyers are using the price corrections as an opportunity to buy more BTC. This presents a potential bullish driver for BTC if prices fall too low.
ETH RELATIVELY RESILIENT AS ETF APPROVAL BECOMES IMMINENT
Mint Finance covered the relative outperformance of ETH to BTC in a previous paper . Approval for ETH ETFs is imminent. Bloomberg analysts previously suggested that approval could come through in early July. However, due to delays and re-filings, the updated approval deadline according to Bloomberg analysts is currently 15/July.
Recent re-filings with the SEC showed minimal changes in the applications suggesting the applications are close to their final form and should be ready to trade within next few weeks.
ETH ETF approval will drive spot buying and support ETH price. This is likely to drive specific outperformance of ETH relative to BTC.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC faces multiple near-term headwinds. However, a directional position may be inadvisable given the bargain buying for ETFs and the sizeable, short position liquidations as price recovered on 8/July. Volatility remains high which presents a risk to a directional short position.
Instead, investors can opt for a spread trade consisting of a bullish view on ETH and a bearish view on BTC. The spread trade effectively balances out price movements by offsetting declines in one cryptocurrency with gains in another. This approach provides investors with exposure to the relative performance of BTC and ETH.
The recent decline in price has led to a decline in the ETHBTC ratio offering a compelling entry point to benefit from the ETF approval while maintaining a bearish view on BTC.
The following hypothetical trade setup combines a long position in 19 x METN2024 and a short position in 1 x MBTN2024.
• Entry: 0.05295
• Target: 0.05750
• Stop Loss: 0.05050
• Reward to Risk: 1.75x
Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.85. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly.
Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 52,280 at a ratio of 0.05228 as of May 31).
These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs.
Liquidity on the EBR contract is lower than the MET and MBT contracts for now. Volumes in the EBR contract saw a strong uptick in June suggesting greater investor activity in these futures.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
BTC: Buying in the Dip?CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! )
Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th.
Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January, German police seized 50,000 bitcoins in connection with the prosecution of movie piracy operation Moview2k. Last week, they began selling thousands of bitcoins, adding to the current selloff pressure.
Last Friday, CME Bitcoin Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) settled at 56,685, a drawdown of more than $15,300 or -21% since June. CME Ether Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) closed at 2,997, down $900 or -23% in a month. Both cryptocurrencies are still up about 25% year-to-date.
Opinion: Bitcoin May Rebound and Reach New High
The big selling from Mt. Gox and the German government temporarily increased available bitcoin supply in the spot market, pushing its prices down. Both sellers could dump tens of thousands more bitcoins to the open markets in the coming weeks.
However, total bitcoin supply is still capped at 2.1 million. The recent halving event in April reduced newly mined bitcoin coming to market while increasing the cost of mining.
Meanwhile, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially with bitcoin ETF funds. Once the dust is settled, we will have a market with limited supply and increasing demand. This is an economic formula for higher prices.
Unlike previous market downturns, the recent drawdown in bitcoin prices is not necessarily reflective of a bearish view from investors. The trustee managing Mr. Gox asset needs to sell bitcoins to make investors whole, ten years after its bankruptcy. The German government sells bitcoins also mainly for legal reasons.
Investors are not panicking. On the contrary, we hear that the founder of blockchain platform TRON offered to pay $2.3 billion to the German government for its entire bitcoin holding. This proposed private transaction is aimed at minimizing market volatility.
Additionally, escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East also draw investors to cryptocurrencies, to diversify and hedge their assets.
We can find validation from CFTC Commitment of Traders report. As of June 25th, total open interest (OI) for CME Bitcoin Futures is 32,277 contracts. Asset managers has 17,531 contracts in long position, vs. only 493 contracts in short position. The 35-to-1 long-short ratio indicates strong bullish view from long-term bitcoin investors.
Overall, I hold the view that bitcoin would come out of the current downturn relatively quickly and would rebound and potentially reach new highs before the end of the year.
Long Futures with Put Protection
On May 6th, I published the idea, “HODL with a Twist”, and explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in bitcoin for the long haul.
Last Friday, the September Bitcoin Futures contract (BTCU4) was settled at 57,695. Each contract has a notional value of 5 bitcoins, or a market value of $288,475. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $69,234. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1. It’s cost-effective investing with CME bitcoin futures, vs. buying bitcoins from bitcoin spot market or the ETF funds.
From bitcoin price history, we learn that it tended to reach new highs after market downturns. However, each drawdown could be very significant, and at times well over 50%. Today, as I reconfirm my bullish view, I also want to add protective put options to hedge our long futures position due to the risk of short-term market correction.
Last Friday, put strike at 50,000 for the September BTC contract was settled at 2,485. A trader will pay $12,425 (= 2,485 x 5) upfront to buy a put option.
Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with protective put strategy differs from buying spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF.
Hypothetical Trade:
• Buy 1 BTCU4 contract at 57,695, and set a stop loss at 50,000
• Buy 1 put option on BTCU4 at the 50,000-strike for $12,425
• Trader pays $69,234 initial margin for futures and $12,425 for put options, totaling $81,659
Scenario 1: Bitcoin drops to $36,000
• This is 50% drawdown from the high price reached in June
• Futures stop loss at 50,000, and the loss incurred in futures account will be $38,475 (= (57695-50000) x 5)
• Put options become exercisable at 50,000, and the gain will be $70,000 (= (50000-36000) x 5)
• The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $31,525 (= 70000 – 38475)
• Investment return will be +38.6% (= 31525 / 81659)
• Comparison: With no leverage, investing in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will lose 50%
Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises to $80,000
• This price will be a new record, which is 7.4% above all time high reached in March
• Futures gain will be $111,525 (= (80000-57695) x 5)
• Put options will expire worthless
• The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $99,100 (= 111525 – 12425)
• Investment return will be +121.3% (= 99100 / 81659)
• Comparison: each bitcoin gains $22,305 (= 80000-57695). Investment return in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will be +38% (= 22305 / 57695)
The above scenarios show that
• when bitcoin goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leveraged nature.
• when bitcoin falls, protect put will kick in to reduce losses and may make a profit.
There are also risks in this strategy:
• If bitcoin goes up only modestly, futures return will lag spot bitcoin investment because of the added cost of the options premium;
• If bitcoin falls but stays above 50000, futures loss will be bigger than spot bitcoin investment, since the put options could not be exercised.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Reverie about the next bear market for BTC.I had shared my target for BTC’s target CME:BTC1! in the long term. Now, what do I expect after reaching that target? As you can see, I lean towards the idea that BTC will enter a bear market after reaching 100k, so I'm not expecting 140k. However, it could happen if you use a logarithmic chart. This is a non-logarithmic chart. After reaching the PO3 target, the price will consolidate there, and then a bear market will begin. BTC, like any instrument, tends to fill its gaps. I've shown the gaps and filled gaps on the chart. Perhaps the next bear target for BTC is 9k. Who knows?
BTC July Trading StrategyAt the end of June, BTC transitioned to a D1 summer range (tentatively 58,000-73,000). This marks the start of a long-term trend pull-back, which opens up the possibility of a deeper pull-back to the 50,000 zone (check BTC 2024-2025 outlook).
However, during the last weekend, we saw a significant long interest coming into the market from the bottom boundary of the D1 range, confirming a strong support zone there.
Therefore, the interaction of these two factors will likely cause the market to settle into a short-term range between 61,000 and 66,000 before the medium-term scenario becomes clear (either staying within the D1 range or experiencing a deeper pull-back).
Such market conditions should be favorable for intraday trading within this short-term range:
selling when the price approaches the upper boundary (66000)
buying when the price nears the lower boundary (61000)
The risk lies in the potential end of the range and the realization of one of the two medium-term scenarios.
Mt. Gox Repayment Plan Brings BTC to 125-Day SMA's OpportunityMt. Gox, which once accounted for roughly 70% of the world's bitcoin trading, was hacked multiple times between 2011 and 2014 and thousands of bitcoins went missing, setting off a long process of customers trying to get their crypto or money back. The exchange declared bankruptcy in 2014.
The long-awaited distribution of Mt. Gox customer funds comes after years of delays. However, Rehabilitation Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi stated that preparations for these repayments are well underway, ensuring all necessary safety measures are in place before the distribution commences.
The correction in BTC price extended on June 24 due to bearish sentiment arising from defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s plan to return over 140,000 BTC to victims of a 2014 hack, with repayments set to begin in July.
More than $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin is owed to approximately 127,000 creditors of Mt. Gox, who have been waiting for over ten years to recover their funds. Since Bitcoin’s price has risen more than 8,000% since 2014, this could introduce significant selling pressure for BTC. Some of these investors, who may have millions in profits, may decide to cash in at current rates.
Meanwhile, in technical terms BTC just dropped to it's significant 3-months support level that is corresponds also with 125-Day SMA.
BTC has been last seen at 125-day SMA 9 months ago only, in mid-October 2023, near $ 28000 level.
In that time SMA support helped to deliver BTC up roughly +160%, less than in a half-a-year.
Technical graph indicates also on huge oversold area for RSI indicator, that just turned to one of its lowest readings over the past 12 months.
BTC Futures. Bulls fade. Robust gain de-established.BTC has reached the top around US$ 73700 on March 14, 2024 as it was clearly explained in previous publication.
Since that it's gone around 1 month till now, and no one new high was printed in BTC.
Bulls fade. Robust gain de-established. Upside bubble-alike trend transformed into detrend structure with flat top near US$ 73000 per BTC.
RSI (14) is sluggish also.
This idea is for b-adj CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts, ticker symbol BTC, which are a USD cash-settled contracts based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of bitcoin.
The BRR aggregates the trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges during a one-hour calculation window into the U.S. dollar price of one bitcoin as of 4 p.m. London Time.
The Bitcoin futures contract trades Sunday through Friday, from 5 p.m. to 4 p.m. Central Time (CT).
A single BTC contract has a value of five times the value of the BRR Index and is quoted in U.S. dollars per one bitcoin. The tick increments are quoted in multiples of $5 per bitcoin, meaning a one-tick move of the BTC future is equal to $25.
BTC futures expire the last Friday of the month, and are listed on the nearest six consecutive monthly contracts, inclusive of the nearest two December contracts.
Technical graph indicates on a detrend structure, where near 73K per BTC is the Top, and near 55K is the target.
Technically, BTC can retrace to mentioned above level as it still below reasonable resistance.
BITCOIN ANALYSIS Current Market Overview
Bitcoin Price Drop: Bitcoin recently dipped below $57,000, with significant fluctuations around this level. It hit $56,769 on July 4.
Liquidations: The market experienced $305.43 million in liquidations, mostly from long positions, including $92.6 million from bitcoin long positions.
Market Sentiment: The sell-off has caused concerns, with 121,992 traders facing liquidations.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price
Potential Large Sell-offs:
Mt Gox and German Government: These entities might release a significant amount of bitcoin into the market, potentially increasing supply and driving prices down. Analyst Neil Roarty suggests that the introduction of 200,000 bitcoin could lead to further price declines.
Miners’ Capitulation:
QCP Capital notes that bitcoin miners show signs of capitulation, similar to patterns seen in previous significant price bottoms, like in 2022 when BTC was at $17,000.
Options Market Optimism:
Despite the downturn, there is positive sentiment in the options market, especially for Ethereum (ETH) with a focus on September and December expiries. Interest in ETH calls indicates a potential price increase.
Liquidation clusters for BTC and ETH are skewed to the topside, suggesting potential for short squeezes and price rebounds.
Potential Market Movements
Supply and Demand Imbalance: If the Mt Gox and German government sell-offs occur, supply could outstrip demand, leading to further price drops.
Capitulation as a Bottom Indicator: Miner capitulation has historically indicated price bottoms, suggesting that the current downturn might precede a recovery.
Options Market as a Leading Indicator: The optimism in the options market could hint at a potential rebound, particularly for Ethereum, which might also positively affect Bitcoin.
Strategic Considerations
Buying Opportunities:
Near Historical Bottoms: If the market shows signs of reaching a bottom similar to the 2022 hashrate drawdown, it could be a good buying opportunity.
Options Market Signals: Monitor the options market, especially ETH calls, as a positive signal for potential price rebounds.
Selling Strategies:
Anticipating Large Sell-offs: Be cautious of the potential large sell-offs by Mt Gox and the German government. Selling before these events might prevent losses.
During Short Squeezes: If the market experiences short squeezes, consider selling at these peaks to maximize profits.
Conclusion
The current market conditions for Bitcoin are influenced by potential large sell-offs, miner capitulation, and optimistic signals from the options market. Careful monitoring of these factors and strategic buying and selling can help navigate the volatility and capitalize on market movements.
BTCUSD - RE-ENTRY / Price reverts to the initial entry priceHello Traders!
I will re-enter this trade after BTCUSD took me out of the transaction on 0.
Most probable we will see here a bullish momentum.
Trade Safe!
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