forecasting t-note ZN in 15 min Hello to all tradingview investors, according to my previous analysis, I see a great sales opportunity with good probability, the details are reflected in the graph, greetings and good luck to all
ZN1! trade ideas
T-note ZN1! only billy has the power and glory for god's sake!billy-billy-no, soros, rothschild, blackrock, rockie and the creepy ghost of kissinger are pumping money, printing as fools and ripping the market off. Therefore we see the t-note really overbought.
Just do the same like these evils and sell puts on ZN1! january contract at 110,25 strike price and fvckthem. Collect the premium.
Notes still in a bear market Even though the ZN 10yr notes look like they want to reverse higher (lower yields) we can't forget how bearish this long term trend is. While below 109'05 the bears remain in control
ZN1! only billy has the power and glory for god's sake!billybillyno, soros, rothschild, rockie-feller, larry pink and the rest of pedoyews elites that run the world are pumping the t-note as they print money as fools to later dump it. Do not be silly and buy puts options at 108,50 or sell calls at 110,50 on JAN 2024 contract and fvckthem
T-Notes rally Looking for T-Notes to continue the rally in coming months:
It looks like it ended a 5 waves pattern
There is a divergence on the MACD between wave 3 and 5
Their is the 10 year S2 at 105 and an untested demand zone
Historical number of shorts on the T-Notes ( COT: Reportable Non-Commercial Net Positions (Futures Only))
Lower inflation and potential economic effects of such a rapid increase in rates should make rates go down
December is usually the worst month of the year for treasuries but 2024 should be a good year for bonds.
10-Year Bond Option SentimentAnalysis of yesterday's CME options market transactions shows that the market participants are positive about the prospects of the long bonds, betting on its growth to $111.5 within 20-30 days.
The Power Of Option Analysis. Sentiment on 10-year bonds.Another reason to get involved in options research analysis. Yesterday and last Friday, 10-year bonds options contracts on the CME were found which have a predictive component in the form of sharp price movement in any direction. Today's 10-Year Bonds chart has fully realized this sentiment, allowing the most informed participants to capitalize well. And did you make money on today's Bond rally?
Bonds - Bullish Quarterly Bias I am seeing a bullish '22 model on Bonds with a clear Original consolidation. I am bullish on bonds for the rest of the quarter. As a result, I am leaning bullish on all assets that directly correlate with bonds & bearish on assets that indirectly correlate with bonds including yields.
10 year note Trade4 hour chart: TrendCloud is up
1 hour chart: TrendCloud is up
CCI is above +100
15 minute demand zone
Stop is 1% Risk
Target is 2:1
Has the bond market bottomed?The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"
So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields back towards 5%. Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10yr pressured since spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate. We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given!
forecasting ZN T-BUNDS IN 15MINHello to all investors, according to my previous studies and according to my experience as a trader, I see a good investment opportunity with a high probability of success, the details are reflected in the graph
ZN Week of 16 to 20 2023Please see video for exact points and opinion.
Still in a down trend.
Thank you.
#ZN Playing A Potential CorrectionIn this update we review the recent price action in the US 10yr Note futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Pattern expected - ZN I expect this pattern on ZN in the next weeks. It may give some ideas about what’s coming next in the global economy.
Ten Year Notes ($ZN) Bearish Impulse Remains IncompleteShort term Elliott Wave view suggests that cycle from 9.1.2023 high in Ten Year Notes ($ZN) remains incomplete. The decline is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9.1.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 109’19 and rally in wave 2 ended at 110’07. The Notes extended lower in wave 3 as an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 109’08 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 109’2.
The Notes then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 108 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 108’17. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 107’07 which completed wave 3. Wave 4 is in progress to correct the decline from 110’07. Potential target for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. This area comes at 107’29 – 108’11. Near term, as far as pivot at 110’07 high stays intact, expect rally in wave 4 rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
Sell 3T Bonds at Markethello trader
Sell point 108.18 TARGET 104.22
Expecting the sell-side targets to be reached sooner or later, this would cause a rise in Interest rates and the prices of commodities and Dollar Index
Key Reversal Day in ZNThe 10yr notes market made a big reversal today following the CPI data. And this move could continue following the US retail sales tomorrow as economists are expecting a downtick in US consumer spending. We are far from a reversal, but given the big "outside day" bullish reversal candle near key long term support near the 109'00 level, we could see a much bigger reversal unfold in the market.
Two days ago, the chart of the day was the USDCNH and the correlation of yields in the 10/30yr markets. If the above holds true, we could see a reversal lower in the USDCNH and perhaps the broad US Dollar market as well.
To be extra sure that a key reversal is developing, we would be looking for a move back above the 50dma which capped the rally on Friday, September 1st.
Short-Term Outlook: ZN Bonds will decline to 109.16$.I. Bearish Momentum:
The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices.
II. Seller Dominance:
Seller dominance can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment. When sellers outnumber buyers, it often leads to downward price movements. In the case of ZN bonds, the sellers have been in control, suggesting that the short-term bias leans towards a bearish outlook.
III. Price Target: 109.16:
Based on the current market conditions and the prevalence of seller dominance, it is reasonable to anticipate a decline in ZN bond prices. Our short-term price target is set at 109.16, which reflects the potential support level where prices may find temporary stabilization.
IV. Intraday Resistance: 110.31:
In addition to the seller dominance, there is a notable intraday resistance level at 110.31. This resistance level acts as an obstacle to any upward price movement and can further support the notion of a downward price trend. Traders should pay close attention to this level as it may provide an opportunity to enter short positions.
In conclusion, the ZN bonds market appears poised for a short-term decline to the 109.16 price area, supported by seller dominance and the presence of an intraday resistance level at 110.31. As a bonds trader, it's vital to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions while implementing effective risk management strategies. The financial markets are dynamic, and staying informed is essential to making well-informed trading decisions.
Demand Zones on the 10 yr noteTutorial on finding Strong Demand zones. Formations that break other formations. A better way to find your demand zones.
U.S. Economy Less Interest Rate SensitiveDespite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not?
The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including myself, had many reasons for a more optimistic view. However, the most critical reason appears to have been an appreciation of how the U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates.
In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. economy was driven by housing and manufacturing. The only choice to finance a home was the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, provided by a savings and loan institution, that deliberately borrowed short-term from savers and lent long-term, taking considerable interest rate and yield curve risk. Further, there was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk.
Fast forward to the modern economy of the 2020s. The U.S. is an economy driven by the service sector, and services are considerably less sensitive to interest rate swings than housing and automobiles. Home mortgages come in every size and flavor, from floating rates to fixed rates. Mortgages are originated by specialists and then packaged and sold to pensions, endowments and investors willing to take the risk. There are no savings and loan institutions. Financial futures, swaps and options are available for efficient hedging and management of interest rate risk.
In short, the U.S. economy does not dance to interest rates like it once did. Make no mistake, though; interest rate shifts have a profound impact on asset values, from equities to bonds, to housing. It is just that the impact on the real economy is much more subdued than it once was, and a rise in rates does not automatically mean a recession is around the corner.
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By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Are yields about to blow out?The July monthly close in 10-year futures edged through rising trendline support, a level aligning with a 4.0% yield (highlighted with the yellow shaded ellipse). Is Treasury weakness through the end of July a precursor of continued selling and a blowout in yields? The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only a 20% probability the Federal Reserve hikes in September. Given resilient growth in the U.S. and shrinking Initial Jobless Claims, are those odds too low? The fear would be this probability rises to 50%. In such a case, 10-year futures would have incurred continued selling, finding added weakness due to the trend line break. Although there is additional support from a trendline from March 2002 and the Q4 2007 rally that will try to buoy selling, the Treasury complex is at a critical inflection point and a continued breakdown (or rising yields) would become a direct headwind to the risk-landscape, likely creating downward pressure in equity indices and precious metals.
In the coming days, ISM Non-Manufacturing data for July is released Thursday at 9:00 am CT. This measures the services sector which has been extremely resilient and a source of stubborn inflation. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls for July are due at 7:30 am CT. The job market as remained tight, supporting wages, another factor of inflation. If these data points come in hotter than expected, one would imagine the 10-year sees continued selling. Regardless of the outcome, traders must keep an eye on 10-year futures in order to keep a pulse on the risk-landsacpe.
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
