small bet on potential plunge on descending ATR channelsmall bet on potential plunge on descending ATR channel
BIDU trade ideas
BIDUbidu is in a large correction at a near end of a large drop down (primary C). However no one knows if it is done.
$BIDU Panic bounce yesterday Watching for continuation or short Looking to see if this has the legs to trade back to 105-106 Or possibly short this on early strength
$BIDU Potential Cup and Handel breakoutIn small position for BIDU, bet a potential Cup and Handel break out.
Stop Loss 106
1st target level $123.
This is only for a quick trade, not for long term holding. Will go from there.
Baidu Inc.A good Fundamental, it will be a good buy below 106
Baidu Inc.
Cyclically adjusted earnings yield:
12%
Dividend yield:
0%
Cash flow yield from operations:
9.2%
Cash flow yield TTM:
6.7%
Growth yield:
12%
Return on net tangible assets:
35%
Return on invested capital:
22%
Growth of revenue:
35%
BAIDU SET FOR $139, BULLISH.HUGE REVERSAL TRADE OPPORTUNITY IN THE CHINESE(GOOGLE) SEARCH ENGINE, EARNINGS WERE A BLOW TONIGHT.
IF MARKET CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH THIS IS ONE OF THE MANY CHINESE STOCKS THAT WE SEE AS A EASY TRADE.
LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE NOTABLE FIB RESISTANCE.
$BIDU Long targeting 150 on long term , Good indicatorsRSI positive and in buy limits also MFI and stochastic . BIDU shares dropped hardly from 160 begin of 2019 to 93 lowest this year . even the downtrend seems hide some major news or headlines related to this shares but as technical indicators showing good uptrend targeting 115 - 130 then 150-160 on large scale but early to confirm .. Stoploss for this trend at 93.3 and 115 is most important resistance
Baidu ready to recover after Q2 resultsThe stock has been in negative Weekly RSI since a few weeks now...
Last time this happened in 2015, the stock had jumped up by 70% after it recovered. In terms of Risk/Return it looks very attractive as the bottom has been hit while the recovery can be significantly interesting.
Fundamentally the stock has been hurt due to global environment (china trade war / economic slow-down) and the business has for the first time seen a real slow down in revenue and earnings (especially due to investment in new tech)
However, currently the valuation fundamentally doesn't make sense.
If you include CTRIP, IQIYI and the 12.5bn cash position. It means that Baidu Core Search engine is currently valued at 10BN
This mean 1x Revenue Multiple / 2x EBITDA Multiple. Not seen many companies trading at 2x EBITDA multiple. Huge undervaluation due to sentiment..
BIDU close to strong supportline lineBIDU close to strong weekly support line. Possibly long and wait for 123 pattern for long trade. As we wait for the earnings report. Let's hope for results better than expected. Thumbs up if you agree. Here is what i'm also watching
THE WEEK AHEAD: BIDU EARNINGS; GDXJ, EEM, VIX/VXX/UVXYEARNINGS
BIDU (97/55) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session ... .
Pictured here is a September 80/120 short strangle paying 1.65 as of Friday close with delta/theta metrics of 1.57/8.07. You can naturally go defined risk, but you'll have to go in a smidge tighter with the shorts to collect one-third the width of the wings and being surgical with your strikes will be tough with 5-wides in that expiry. The September 20th 80/85/110/115 is paying 1.62 with delta/theta metrics of .26/3.20.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Precious metals keep on grinding in a high implied volatility state for yet another week, with the ideal rank/implied metrics remaining in GDXJ and nearly ideal ones in GDX:
GLD (80/16)
GDXJ (77/38)
SLV (77/25)
TLT (76/17)
GDX (72/33)
BROAD MARKET
EFA (53/17)
EEM (52/22)
IWM (36/22)
SPY (35/18)
QQQ (27/22)
Since I don't have anything on in EEM, I may consider putting on something longer-dated there. Using the delta neutral at-the-money short straddle test and looking for a setup that pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying, it looks like I would have to go out to January where the 40 short straddle is paying 4.54 versus 39.54 the shares were trading at as of Friday close.
The January 17th 40 short straddle pays 4.54 with break evens at 35.46/44.54 and has delta/theta metrics of 1.96/1.13 and a 25 max of 1.13; the 16 delta 34/44 short strangle pays 1.05 (.52 at 50 max) with break evens of 32.05/45.05 and delta/theta metrics of -.15/.86. I'm fine with either, but there's something to be said for having room to adjust without going inverted with the short strangle.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
VIX finished Friday at 18.47 with the /VX term structure still in backwardation from September to December, with the August contract settling next week.
I will continue to look to add at-the-money bearish assumption setups (short call verticals or long put verticals) in VIX in the front month (September) should we get additional pops to >20 and/or the same type of setup in UVXY and VXX using VIX levels as a guide. As of Friday close, the VIX September 18th 18/21 short call vertical was paying 1.10 at the mid with a break even of 19.10 versus 18.47 spot, but will probably wait for another pop to >20 to put on a similar setup.*
* -- Short call verticals: short in the money, long out of the money, paying one-third the width of the spread. Long put verticals: short out of the money, long in the money, paying less than one-third the width in debit. Short call verticals with the same strikes as a long put vertical have the same risk, so it's a matter of taste and/or the practicalities of having a bunch of different plays on in the same expiry as to which you use. For example, you can layer on same strike long put verticals over short call verticals without inadvertently "stepping on" the short call verticals you have on. As compared to VIX options -- which settle to cash, with UVXY and VXX, there's naturally some assignment risk, so I lean toward short call verticals in those particular instruments, since I'd rather be short shares if assigned.
BIDU CALLS for 07-30-19 earningsBIDU CALLS for 07-30-19 earnings
Bought calls:
$114 strike, 08-02-19 Expiration, cost 1.13
$117 strike, 08-02-19 Expiration, cost 0.36
