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ARKK trade ideas

Opening: ARKK March 18th 59.22 Short Put... for a 1.83 credit. Comments: Here, I'm basically treating the deep ITM 103.22 short put as stock with the 81.22 short call making that aspect of the setup -- the 103.22P/81.22C -- functionally a March 18th 81.22 covered call. I don't want to widen the inverted strangle further by rolling down the short call, since that would be the functional equivalent of selling a call below my cost basis, which I generally don't like to do. In essence, I'm converting this into a March 18th 59.22/81.22 covered strangle with the 103.22P standing in as my stock. I've collected a total of 22.58 in credits which makes my cost basis in my "synthetic stock" 103.22 - 22.58 or 80.64. The downside of doing this is that this makes the setup more net delta long, which will make for additional discomfort if this POS can't find a bottom somewhere.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
2
The Right &The Wrong side of the Equation (-51.29% /232 days)!12 years ago when I started this journey(trading/investing), I told myself: you have to review the background of the most successful traders and investors and pick the bullet points that work the best for you! Before I came to the US 2 years ago, I have never heard about ARK invest. I remember the first time I search for the best-performing hedge fund in the past 5 years, ARK invest and Cathie Woods. I was reading about their strategies and checked all their fund's holdings one by one, I built a watchlist of ARKG, ARKK, ARKW...etc. From the fundamental point of view, I noticed they invest in companies that barely have revenue and if they generate revenue they are not profitable and will not become profitable in the next 5 years! Moreover, they have invested more than 99.9% of the funds and it will limit their action! Another common feature between their investing was a beautiful story and multi-trillion dollars disruption! Usually, they mention 30 trillion dollars in their interviews..! The bigger Fool theory: Story of Fake gurus on YouTube: I notice there are lots of YouTubers with the same mantra: "I buy because ARK invest has bought", some times even a rumor was enough to cause the price jump, like BNGO's +3000% move in less than 40 trading days! By the time I found out Bill Hwang was the one who provide the seed money for the first 4 ARK's funds I became confident that something must be wrong..! After finishing my research, I have published more than 20 short articles on ARKK and other ARK funds in the past year, Althogh, I received much criticism, today ARKK is trading -51.29% from its All-Time-High..! and I'm confident that is not the end of the story..! I think in the best scenario it will go down to 60, and the worst scenario could push it down to 30-35..! You may think I am crazy, but reviewing Cathie Woods's performance in 2008, shows her disruptive thematic investment had -38-48% performance! In the past year, those who hold their positions were on the Wrong Side of the Equation..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
4
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 82.22C/104.22P to March 18th... 81.22C/103.22P for a 1.25 credit. Comments: Rolling this out a touch early due to lack of extrinsic in the short put, which ostensibly increases assignment risk. I improved the short put by a strike, but kept the inversion the same -- a 22 wide for which I've collected 19.50 (See Post Below) plus 1.25 or 20.75, with my resulting cost basis in any stock I might be assigned via the short put 103.22 - 20.75 or 82.47 relative to where it closed today at 75.87. I prefer working these inversions to a point where either I can scratch them out or where taking assignment would be at "something close" (a relative term) to where the stock is currently trading. That way I'm not starting out working a covered call way under water such that selling calls against at or above my cost basis wouldn't be productive. Naturally, there's a point where you ask yourself whether you've mitigated enough loss such that you can comfortably take the hit, free up the buying power for something more productive and then move on.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
5
A comparison between ARKK and NASDAQ 100 in 3 diffrent window!Part one: April 2020 to February 2021: ARKK outperform NASDAQ 100: While ARKK gained 289%, NASDAQ 100 gained 84% in the same time frame! Part two: Feb 2021 to Jan 2022: While ARKK has lost more than 51% Nasdaq 100 gained +9.7% Part three: March 2020 to Jan 2022: ARKK gained 102% while NASDAQ 100 outperform with a 116% gain in the same time frame! Part 4: ARKK since inception: Since Oct2014 ARKK gained +273%, in the same time frame NASDAQ gained 264%! Conclusion: ARKK outperforms NASDAQ by 9% in 8 years..! Although social media tries to depict a Legendary portfolio manager, Numbers show the ARK team is not what you think they are..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
The most significant decline in ARKK's historyToday we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history. The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more. Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run. * AVOID trading below the descending trendline . A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020. * Study the 3 previous scenarios . IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns. My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are: 1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities) 2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities) Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
51
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 89.22 Short Call to 82.22... for a 2.51 credit. Comments: More defense as this underlying continues to implode. Total credits collected of 16.99 (See Post Below) plus the 2.51 here equals 19.50. The resulting inversion is, unfortunately, 22 strikes wide -- 2.50 greater than the total of credits I've collected. This means that I won't be able to scratch it out during this cycle regardless of what happens with price, but will have to roll out for duration if I want to attempt to do that until I've collected more credits than the width of the inversion. Alternatively, I can consider taking the loss and moving on, but the best case loss scenario at the moment is a 2.50 loss (assuming price moves back between the strikes).
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
7
Cathie Wood Deflation ARKK: ShortCathie has been in over drive selling we book with her deflation theory and innovation stocks as the principal reason her fund will outperform. The in period her fund is down almost 50%, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is up almost 35%. In order for Cathie’s ARK fund to beat Berkshire should would need a 85% turnaround. Usually takes years to achieve this performance Looks like deep contraction will confine for ARK. It is in a 5 wave impulse down and getting pressed down further by the moving averages. Recently had a death cross on the 50/200 MA. Cathie’s response, in a recent interview, to the poor performance was a result of the Algo traders. Sounds like the classic example governments use to explain when the ccy is taking a hit. Ie the speculators.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Tez8