D1 CME GAPD1 CME gap suggests we might rally back up to backtest the yellow TL. If it holds, then we see lower, IMO.
BTCUSDH2025 trade ideas
TWO GAPS to FILL. Which one comes first?Traders,
Our CME BTC Futures chart now shows (2) two gaps to fill. We know that over 90% of all gaps are eventually filled. Usually, this occurs sooner rather than later. The big question is which one of these gaps will be filled first if we assume they will both be filled? Post your best guess in the comments below.
The other thing I am looking at on this chart is a possible retest of our previous channel. Previously, the top of this channel acted as resistance. The market likes to come back and test previous resistance as support. Will it do so this time as well?
Stay tuned,
Stew
BTC CME Futures Price Gap - August 17BTC CME Futures Chart, Hourly, 1:00 PM EST, 5:00 PM UTC
There's a bit of a unique setup on the lower-mid term timeframes for BTC. Yesterday's sell-off occurred between 5-6 PM EST, which coincided with a 1 hour break in the CME futures market. Contrary to popular belief, the CME Futures exchange actually does not operate 24/5, but actually 23/5 with a 1 hour session break.
"CME Globex:
Sunday - Friday 5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m Central Time (CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 4:00 p.m. CT"
As the sell-off in the spot market occurred during the break in the CME futures session, there is coincidentally now a price gap to fill between $27000-27540 region. This would be an attractive area for short traders to re-enter the market if we do have a relief bounce in the coming days.
One could set conditional market orders to go short if price enters this region. As a reminder, always utilize proper risk management.
$BTC can retest, has history of retesting lowsDon't forget that the 2019 CRYPTOCAP:BTC bottom was "retested" a year later in 2020.
#BTC estimates for the lows at that time.
2019 low = 3100
2020 low = 4300
See that beautiful inverse head & shoulder back then?
Didn't break out until LATE 2020.
#bitcoin gap fill would coincide perfectly with a retest this year or 2024.
BITCOIN ROADMAP — HEAVEN AND HELLHeaven can be cold
Baby, baby, when you lose control
Everybody needs someone 🅱
Be careful in the night
He can hurt you more
Baby, baby, as he did before
Come on baby, keep your hands of him
In the gypsy night 😘
It will come and go
Everybody knows
You make your own
Heaven and hell 💔
Daytime traders love for sale
You make your own
Heaven and hell
Statements full of tears will tell 😭
He takes your heart
I know him well
You've got no time to lose
For heaven and hell 🎉
Behind the painted smile
Baby, baby, he is running wild
Everybody needs some love tonight
Be careful in the night 🥳
This publication is to introduce with BTC roadmap, unforeseen rocks and climbs.
// Look first. Then leap!
BTC Bearish engulfing and divergence. Friday close imo is the most important close of the week along with the Monday open.
Why is this a case Friday lines up with big picture ideas that form market structure such as.
-major support/resistance
-key weekly close pivot points
-risk off limit over night/weekend exposure
-weekly rebalance
CME trade a 5 day chart as opposed the BTC 24/7 trading on the open market, traders that trade on CME futures traditionally have higher technical trading knowledge and greater funded accounts than retail.
I have notice bearish divergence on the POC from binance opposed to CME charts this could be due to 24/7 trading on binance and their wash trading algo's and as the overall trend is still positive trading over the weekend and into Monday open I see the above as bearish momentum and I'll be going against the trend until the POC is reclaimed.
trade in validation 31200, this is a key area to go long for new high's break outs
target 27900 as this is a key value area
Possible BTC CME Gap Fill and Fib Level RetestThe chart says it all, BTC might decide to give max pain to the bears who are thinking that the 30k resistance will hold. In my opinion, the 35k zone is more important because it would be the retest of Bitcoin's previous bear market consolidation area and the first meaningful fib level retest. I still remain bearish in the big picture like in my previous post made when BTC was above 60k and personally believe that lower lows will come after this impulsive move to the upside. My 15k target for the previous move was hit to the T, and I believe that the next downtrend will go below that area if the bear market has not ended. 9k is the level I am looking at the most.
However, I do currently have a small long position for this potential short-term bullish move.
Bitcoin Falling! Read for Entry!!CME:BTC1!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has followed my analysis from a while back.
Yesterday I cautioned traders to watch for the Bearish Retest.
Congratulations to those that played this ... 18.23% down and in profit!
At 25.2k zone, my thought are looking for a fakeout to long back to 31.8K.
200 Daily is potential support at 25.2k.
If this does not happen then short ideas are to ~21.4k and ~19.7k zones.
Don't panic that you have missed any move. Prepare now with Plan A Plan B scenarios as I always point out.
Bitcoins short term healthAs I have been saying, the fundamental economic factors have perfectly aligned with our #technicalanalysis of the cryptocurrency markets with #BTC being area of concentration for its dominant role within the ecosystem #bitcoin #btc #cryptocurreny
Bitcoin’s Short term healthAs I have been saying, the fundamental economic factors have perfectly aligned with our #technicalanalysis of the cryptocurrency markets with #BTC being area of concentration for its dominant role within the ecosystem #bitcoin #btc #cryptocurreny
Bitcoin’s Health StatusAs I have been saying, the fundamental economic factors have perfectly aligned with our #technicalanalysis of the cryptocurrency markets with #BTC being area of concentration for its dominant role within the ecosystem #bitcoin #btc #cryptocurreny
$BTC in dangerHaven't been paying as much attention as normal to CRYPTOCAP:BTC as am I've been waiting for a break to a trend, been mostly in cash.
Was expecting break later on in month but tonight has my attention.
VERY dangerous territory for #BTC.
This is the weakest #bitcoin has been in some time.
27k area next major support.
50% Fib Retracement = 23kish.
#crypto
Bitcoin Below 50ma, Watching $20k Price GapAlong with all of the major stock indices falling below their 50-day moving averages this week, Bitcoin is also below its 50ma and testing the 100ma for support. Failure to hold above the 100ma near $28.7k will likely lead to a test of the orange trendline near $28k. If that also fails to hold as support then we can consider the uptrend in price over and a likely test of the 200ma near $25k. The main lower level that I've been watching and expecting price to hit after price failed to hold above $30k twice this year stems from the gap in price created in early March in the $20k- FWB:21K area. Gaps tend to get filled and Bitcoin has a consistent history of filling gaps in the chart.
The lower PPO indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line which indicates short-term bearish momentum. Both lines have also crossed below the 0 level which indicates potential intermediate to long-term bearish momentum in play.
The TDI indicators shows the green RSI line trending below 50 and heading down towards the 40 level. A move below the 40 level would indicate a short-term bearish price trend. The RSI is also trading in the lower half of extremely tight Bollinger Bands which indicates current short-term bearish momentum with a potentially big move head as tightening BBands tend to precede large moves.
Overall, Bitcoin hasn't flipped completely bearish yet, but when taking into account the deteriorating picture in the stock market and Bitcoins indicators leaning bearish, the outlook for price looks weak here. The main level I'm watching for now in the short-term is the orange uptrend line as a breach below there would indicate that price is likely to continue heading lower, which seems like the likely move after two failed attempts to hold above $30k this year.
I'm currently short Bitcoin via the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF, BITI. Entry was at $19.71 yesterday with a stop-loss at $18.91 should Bitcoin happen to turn around and head higher.
$BTC do or dir before August is doneCRYPTOCAP:BTC broke the smaller up trend.
As we stated some time ago, the orange trend line is just TOO MUCH for #BTC to close above.
Volume was weak on this uop trend break. We believe that the larger trend will be harder to break.
Nevertheless, this battle will be decided before August is over.
#Bitcoin is setting for a BIG move!!!!
BTC USD ideaDude, check this out - the BTC Futures CME caps, they're like these magnetic spots pulling us in on the chart. It's like the waves are guiding us right to 'em. Let's ride this chart and see how it plays out. Just one idea in the sea of possibilities, man. 🌊🏄♂️ Let's catch that crypto wave and ride it all the way to those caps! 🚀🔮
$BTC intraday is strengthening but still within the trendMIL:BTC is still trading within the trend it's been in since mid July.
This battle within the trend is interesting.
The volume is similar between the longs and sells.
Could it be the same "institution" trading?
The RSI has been strengthening the last 3 test of #BTC lows
Analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) Hello, everyone!
Today I'd like to share my analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) market and discuss my observations. It seems that recently we've been experiencing a period of price stability for Bitcoin, and although we remain within a certain range, I see an intriguing perspective.
When analyzing global timeframes, one can notice a chart pattern resembling a rising wedge or a bearish flag. This might indicate a possible continuation of the downward trend. However, it's important to keep in mind the current market cycle we are in and exercise caution with short positions. Additionally, it's worth considering that long-term investments might be a more favorable option at present.
As you may have noticed, before the rise to the new historical high of around $69,000, we observed a gap at the $9,600 level. Such gaps can have an impact on price movements, and a similar pattern may be unfolding now. Currently, we have an open gap at the $20,500 level, which could be a pivotal moment for future developments. Therefore, I recommend being cautious and attentive when making decisions.
In conclusion, I want to emphasize that the cryptocurrency market is always unpredictable, and analysis merely provides a general understanding of potential price movements. It's best to view this information as one of the factors in making investment decisions. Wishing you successful trades and wise choices on this exciting journey in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Three Driving Forces Behind the Ether-Bitcoin Exchange RateAt a glance:
Higher tech stocks tend to boost ETHBTC, while a higher USD tends to depress it
Bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic, which contributes to its high volatility
Together, ether and bitcoin account for over 60% of the total value of the world’s cryptocurrencies, but the exchange rate between the two has varied widely over time.
So, what drives the Ether-Bitcoin exchange rate? The ETHBTC cross rate responds to many factors, but here are three of them.
Technology Stocks
On days when the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index rallies, ether tends to rise versus bitcoin. This may be because ether, which is the currency of the Ethereum smart contract network, has more practical applications in the technology space than bitcoin, which is mainly held as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
U.S. Dollar
On days when the U.S. dollar is higher, ether tends to underperform versus bitcoin.
Bitcoin Supply
While ether can be supplied up to 18 million coins per year, bitcoin supply is limited to a maximum of 21 million coins ever, of which about 19 million already exist. Every four years, the supply of new bitcoin drops in half. In the past, halvings have often been preceded by large runups in bitcoin prices and tremendous increases in the amount of revenue that bitcoin miners are paid for matching transactions. Ether is both more volatile than bitcoin and highly correlated to bitcoin. As such, when bitcoin rises or falls versus the U.S. dollar, ether often moves to an even greater degree.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
FLAG, VOLUME, AND CME GAPBTC held the 618 on this leg, and has made a new impulse Wave #1. We also closed above the 21D EMA (red).
The flag target is about 35,100. After wave 2 consolidation, we should head up through the rest of the volume node we are currently in (gray area).
We are also above the 200 SMA, also bullish. (not shown)
It's possible the MM's try to pull a liquidation hunt down to touch the yellow line at some point, so I have included a second path to keep this on the radar. Stay sharp!
Invalidation for me is breakdown that goes below the yellow TL.
$BTC shows life, we called this week, again(pls see profile for info)
4 Hour
CRYPTOCAP:BTC was good, not great, but good volume. Good enough at least.
Today looks heavy until you compare it to other days.
DAILY
#BTC closing above orange down trend with good volume = GREAT.
Cyan line MUST HOLD for the Bull case.
Longer term downtrend line is still intact. Closed leveraged #BTC trade when it was close to it.
Expected #Bitcoin move we spoke about a few days ago, done.
Now the goalpost has moved up to EARLY next week.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC flies or tests much lower support.
Technically, bigger move can be @ end of August but we'll see!
#crypto
$BTC major move coming, should get signal this weekPeople just don't get it:
Sometimes a catalyst is NOT NEEDED for a big move.
#BTC Futures dictate market price, NOT spot.
After big moves consolidation takes time, weeks, months even.
Added an additional parallel trendline for CRYPTOCAP:BTC (T3).
Not crazy about it and let's see how it holds.
#Bitcoin closed first time under Trendline 1.
-
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently looking like late June - late July = not great sign.
However;
RSI stronger positive divergence on 4hr chart.
Volume hasn't been heavy for #BTC on this down trend but it has been consistent.
Daily #Bitcoin RSI is holding the 50 area = good.
*******
We're very close to a deciding move, THIS WEEK!
*******
a megaphone pattern?This structure is not seen very often, but the erratic behavior that Bitcoin is experiencing is only to stabilize the price in this area, and it is forming what could be a megaphone pattern. This pattern is leading us to the 35K mark and its amplifying powers may be what Bitcoin needs to move forward. Patience is the science of waiting for what we know is inevitable.
