BTCUSDI continue to see an up trend until the price falls below 28808.The description is on the chart.
BTCUSDSHORTS trade ideas
BTC Macro OutlookI still believe us to be in a macro wave 4. Sadly this wave 4 has been massive and nearly a year long so far.
The wave one's 1.618 extension and the current wave three's 0.236 retrace happen to overlap. This should and will be strong area of support. If this holds then we are either experiencing an A-B-Truncated C for the wave 4 retrace or some sort of ABCDE that is yet to end playing out. Alternatively, we could fall to the 0.382 retrace at around 22k. This would be a more standard ABC correction.
I don't believe we have had a wave 5 top yet for a few reasons. Firstly, the waves to the current ATH were an ABC up. The A and C legs are roughly 1:1 extensions. Following the first point, there is no discernable 5 wave structure. Also, there has been no 'blow off top'. Finally, there was no fibonacci area of resistance. It simply stopped in between the 1.618 - 2.618 extensions of the first wave.
I'd also like to make clear I have done no time analysis. The lines are complete conjecture as to where they land in time frame.
BTC Short Term Bounce DueThere appears to finally have been a minor impulse wave since the move down began. Targets are around 43 - 45k. Then it will either make a higher low or simply go lower again.
I will post the 'higher resolution' of the minor wave in the comments as it was on 1minute charts and TV doesn't let you publish any ideas under 15minute time frames.
Set-up invalidated below the current low.
BTC Maybe Last Long till End of 2022I think BTC can go up near 50000 and it could be the last high for 2022.
HIGH RISK.
Bitcoin's historical trend is comparedThe xbt is a bitcoin futures contract launched by the bitmex, and I chose him as the analysis target because his data was adopted by the cme. In this market with hundreds of exchanges, the price of the bitcoin is defined differently, and we have to find a relatively stable reference, so I chose the xbt as the analysis target.
xbt biggest problem is his short timethere is limited history we can refer to.
But in the past four years, lithium, bitcoin trend, can still find some valuable reference.
Compared to the current position, we see that this is a big level decline, and in history, there are three same trends, from June-December 2018, June-December 2019, April-July 2021, and now, from November 2021 to now.
Among the four trends, the first three times are six months, six months and three months respectively, which is very conspicuous. If the first two times are defined as a major level adjustment, then April last year is the secondary level adjustment.And now is it three months old, or six months old?
In theory, after falling below ma144, the market should rebound and confirm, then decide direction.Now look, the first two have appeared a significant rebound, however, once again down the trend.But the third time did not appear, and this time, there was a rebound in ma144 in December.
If we believe in the rules, then the situation looks more like the one of the previous two than the one of April last April.
The first two final adjustments were 12 months and 9 months respectively, meaning that they took the abc triple-wave structure respectively, and the final adjustment goal was to step back to confirm the ma144-week line support.So now it may be at the end of the first wave of decline, but even into the bottom stage, it doesn't mean that buy now can profit, maybe there will be a bigger drop here, may shock for a period of time.So the best strategy to avoid risk is to wait for the right signal to buy, rather than predict price lows, and wait for a rise after buying.
Tip, the above analysis, only with the chart as a reference, does not involve the fundamentals.
btcusdt rsi przThe relative strength of buyers is located in a very important area
rsi
I think it can turn the trend around
BTCThe price, time, and pattern indicate the end of an ABC correction. I expect bitcoin to move to a new price top after that. Also, if this analysis is not accurate, I expect at least as much as 50% of the retracement fibonacci of the ABC pattern to rise, ie around 50,000.
Same Story 2 different explanation!It does not matter if you look at it as a head and shoulder or a quadratic regression (function)!
The most important thing is that it is moving toward 30K once again..!
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
BTC Bottom In?Monthly bottom trendline hit and 20 EMA and fib retracement all merge approximately the same place $37,000. Looks like a great spot to buy the bounce.
BTC update (more in comments)There is a minor short term descending wedge within a major multi-month wedge. One break should lead into the other. I would assume a break (up OR down) soon as the wedge looks pretty cooked!
#Bitcoin Technical Analysis 3/3 #BTCUSDSHORTS
are pushing up been at 37.38% from previous Resistance
Conclusion: What Bitcoiners want is to see DXY Drop below actual support level at 94.70 to become resistance in the near future
Remember if DXY goes up BTC is going down and vice versa
My personal opinion is that we're going further down to the mids 30K or even further to find support at green box #3 at 30K
(CHECK CHART #1/3)
I Believe that at the end of Q1 price will initiate a recovery in price reaching previous ATH in Q3
NFA
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Please Re-Examine Before Make Your Last Decisions
Short TheKing ?
- ADX was always a strong indicator about Trends movements and strength, so read carefully the graph, this is a 2 Week view, in comments i will post 1 Month view.
- Just Check ADX Overbought Zone and you will understand, for now, i can tell you that 82% of retailers are shorting TheKing and believe it will crash.
- That said i can tell you that 86% of institutional investors and assets managers are Long on BTC.
- So what i want to explain clearly is :
- Whales are just waiting for a big dip to buy your Bitcoins, they always cumulate BTC, they move them out from exchanges and keep in their wallets. no matter if BTC falls to 1000$, they will buy more.
- TheKing is still Alive because Whales never dropped their BTC, they dropped a bit for living, but this new nerd generation understood about the meaning of freedom in the "Satoshi Whitepaper".
- Most of the Whales are not driving a Lambo but drive a small car, they fly coach, they visit the planet, and they go supermarket like you and me.
- Retailers try to win money in the Both Ways because they are just greedy, Long and Short BTC, the problem is when you Short BTC you don't have your coins... you have your "Short Contract" (x2 at least).
- When you are shorting a disinflation technology, it means you are fighting with something made for a best future, less poverty, more equitability, better world for your family.
- When you are shorting BTC you are taking the risk that the exchange you are using close or get a hack, you cannot move a contract in an hardcore Wallet, but if you buy BTC, you can move coins in your Ledger.
- When you are shorting BTC, you own nothing. Not your coins. Not your Key. just the wind.
- i hope this makes some people's open eyes about a greedy financial system.
- Believe in TheKing!
Happy Tr4ding !
Longs vs. Shorts, Important support level soon, will it hold?I've been studying Long/Short for guidance on where (or if) Bitcoin will rebound.
The following is my opinion based on what I perceive. I welcome contrary, corrective and constructive points of view. None of this is financial advice.
At this time there is an obvious bias towards the shorts. We should have confirmation as soon as Jan 11.
In summer 2021 when we turned our bias more towards short positions, long positions declined as sentiment pivoted that direction. Interestingly, there was not an immediate shift towards short positions as the market attempted to determine which direction the market was headed. The bottom was accented by a spike in short positions.
This past summer we broke through an upper support level, touched the bottom upward trendline and bounced back up. If we do not do so here, then likely we will see a further capitulation.
We may see BTC visiting moving average at 45000 $We may see BTC visiting moving average at 45000
BTC may test 45,000 $46,000 areas in the coming period
Where is Bitbitcoin today?There are a lot of predictions about bitcoin's movements on the Internet, mostly bullish.There are based on so-called fundamentals, on so-called charts, and on data.I am a loyal chart analyst who follows the following principles: 1. Chart contains everything, 2. History will be repeated.
First, let's look at the daily line trend, here is a macd divergence, but in front of the macd gold fork, we can not confirm that the divergence must be successful.And now after falling below ma144, the market has entered a standard downward rebound cycle, even if divergence, it is not confirmed that this is the bottom.We're just looking at the rally, and we have to see if we can break through the ma144.
Second, when we look at the weekly line, many people will compare the current position with the adjustment made earlier last year, namely b and c. The trend of these two positions is similar, so many people think that it is the end of the adjustment.But I would like to suggest that there are a lot of similar trends, and in early 2018, or a, so here is the bottom logic, there is no inevitability.At the same time, if we compare the two positions of A and B, we also have a very high similarity.For example, it was also a record high at that time, the macd high dead fork, and now it is more exaggerated, the weekly macd is divergence, theoretically adjusted for a longer cycle.The goal of the weekly line adjustment should theoretically be ma144, which is the yellow line in Fig.
Third, let's look at the monthly line. If you call up the bitstamp chart (this is the most complete K-line chart I have found in the existing exchange), you can clearly see the upward trend of the 5 waves. According to the wave theory, the next step should be the downward trend of the abc.While this seems exaggerated, you see the monthly macd already facing a death crossing, and from the macd adjustment cycle, at least 6 months, so getting out of the abc may not be without.
Above is what I concluded from the chart, but any prediction is wrong, and the prediction is just a reference for our transactions.When it comes to trading, there should be a quantifiable strategy. What I have long used has been the macd + ma18 strategy, which is not the sharpest offensive weapon, but he is indeed the best balanced and the most stable strategy.
In addition, for the current position, in the end is the middle of the bull market, or the beginning of the bear market, there are some reference conditions.For example, new all-time highs appear, of course, can abandon the bear market view.Or that the weekly macd forms a gold cross.But these references may be more lagging, so for the specific operation, macd + ma18 may be more appropriate.Any strategy, there will also be the possibility of success and failure, so the strategy fails, you also have to strictly implement the stop loss, this is the qualified trade.
A possible forecast for the next 8 months!This is a weekly chart, I usually use weekly charts for the long-term forecasts!
My approach may seem very odd at the very first glance, but if you are looking at the symmetric pattern of exponential upward and downward moves, it becomes clear that this approach could explain the possible price pattern in the chart much better!
As you see pattern 1 is completed and pattern 2 will be finished in 6-8 weeks!
Pattern 3 is pure speculative which must be considered after pattern 2, however, there is always a chance deviation in the forecasts!
If you are trading bitcoin this chart may help you make better trades in the direction of the most probable longer-term pattern!
If you like this chart, you can make this set-up yours by pressing the three dots below the chart, and then save the chart layout for yourself!
I will update this chart as needed!
* In a short time frame we always have some positive days between negative days!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Room for more Downside, Up is still trendIt appears btc is going to continue falling atleast 20%. However, not to fear bitcoin is still on track to hit 100k by year end.
I recommend buying bitcoin at around 35K.
The last chance to change the trend in the next 24 hours This analysis is based on Elliott's Multi-timeframe wave count in three times daily, 4 hours and 1 hour, and I hope this will happen.
Leverage Manipulation on BitcoinCool story bro's about "whale manipulation" are common. Here is some evidence.
The "Liquidation Spike" of December 3rd started with the 8:30am US Jobs Report. The move triggered a cascade of stops and liquidations across the cryptocurrency market. In the days prior there was a dramatic increase in leveraged short positions being opened. On Bitfinex the leveraged shorts increase by 275% over 7 days. When the move down happened these short positions closed into profit from where they were taken.
Gravity seemed to pull price down the retest the low. Now on this move to breach the Liquidation Low there is another noted increase in short positions likely trying to force out stops and leverage longs. The battle ensues! My thesis remains that cryptocurrency has entered the bear phase of its cycle.
