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BTCUSD trade ideas

Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-16: Inside BreakawayThis video highlights what I believe will be a rotating topping pattern setting up in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3-4+ days. Traders should move away from risk headed into Christmas and the end of 2024. Gold and Silver will likely make a move higher over the next 5+ days - attempting to recover lost ground from last week's selling. Bitcoin rallied to key resistance and will likely move into a consolidated range (again). This is the time to pull capital away from risks and sit tight through the Inauguration. I believe we'll be seeing lots of day trading opportunities with volatility - but I also believe the markets are setup for a downward price swing headed into the Inauguration. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
BTC plan for next monthsBTC continues its gradual decline despite the ongoing news around wars and macroeconomic conditions. It appears to be forming a descending ellipsoid consolidation pattern. I foresee two potential scenarios for a price bounce: A breakout from the current ellipsoid structure A dip toward the next support level around the $50,000 range The first accumulation zones is highlighted in the chart, around $50,000. However, if macroeconomic conditions worsen, the next accumulation zone would be around the $40,000 range. The target for this cycle is projected between $100,000 and $120,000. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by evasivesteering
BITCOIN ascending channel BTC/USD chart shows **price movement** within a defined **ascending channel** on the 45-minute timeframe. Below is the breakdown and meaningful analysis: --- ### **Key Observations:** 1. **Ascending Channel**: - The price is moving upwards within two parallel black lines, indicating an **uptrend**. - Higher highs and higher lows are visible, confirming a bullish pattern. 2. **Key Levels and Zones**: - **Support Zones**: - **99,318** – Strong support (green area). - Price has respected this zone during the dips, as indicated by the blue circles. - **Resistance Zones**: - **101,641 - 101,877** (red area): Key resistance where BTC faced rejections previously. - BTC/USD has broken above this resistance, turning it into potential support. 3. **Highlighted Price Reactions** (Circled in Blue/Yellow): - These circles indicate critical **swing highs** and **swing lows**. - These areas mark previous bounces at the lower boundary of the channel and rejections at the upper boundary. 4. **Current Price Position**: - The current price is around **104,008**, trading above previous resistance, now acting as support. - It is slightly correcting downward but still remains inside the ascending channel. 5. **Projected Movement**: - **Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation)**: - Price may consolidate near **103,591** before moving higher. - A potential bounce at the midline or support zone can lead to retesting the channel’s **upper boundary** around **105,000 - 106,000**. - **Scenario 2 (Correction)**: - If price breaks below the midline of the channel, it may test **101,641** as support. - A stronger correction could lead BTC to the lower boundary near **99,318**. --- ### **Technical Summary**: 1. **Trend**: Uptrend within an ascending channel. 2. **Support Levels**: - **103,591**, **101,641**, and **99,318**. 3. **Resistance Levels**: - **104,500** and upper channel boundary around **105,500 - 106,000**. 4. **Indicators**: - Price action is bullish; a retest of support could provide further confirmation for upward continuation. --- ### **Trading Strategy**: - **Bullish Outlook**: - Look for **buy entries** at support zones (**103,591** or **101,641**) with targets at **105,000 - 106,000**. - Watch for bullish price action at the lower channel trendline. - **Bearish Outlook**: - If price breaks below **101,641**, expect a move toward the green support zone at **99,318**. **Conclusion**: The current structure suggests bullish momentum, but a pullback to key supports is possible before a continuation toward the channel's upper boundary. Watch for reactions at the midline and support zones.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by amerjaradat
NEW ATH B4 the Final Verdict 2 Days ago I was made this on the group that Bitcoin will increase a New ATH again as the market and sentiments are still strong buying pressure. But this time I prepared for you to be ready for the final verdict of Bitcoin as it surrounds of 3 engulfing candle at the Higher time frame. Price of the bitcoin must hunt liquidity Target around for New ATH 112K and market will create new reversal point in this area. By 2025 the welcome will be a bearish market if given large account to hunt liquidity from the retail market. Be aware of this point and will be the most exciting moment of the crypto market.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by FXDC_CORE
Bitcoin movement predictionFirst of all, I am glad that my previous prediction was correct. Now, when I look at the chart, you can see the Elliott waves, you can see the movement of the fifth wave both in the larger time frame and the movement of the fifth wave in a part of the same wave, in the smaller wave! Considering this, we can expect that there are two options ahead: 1- a move to the ceiling of 110,000 for the peak of wave 5 and option 2- a corrective move and the start of wave A to the support level of $100,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chartino
LONG: $BTC Laser focused on 138K (when you see it)Bitcoin is riding a steady upward-sloping channel, keeping the bulls in control. The Golden Spiral—a mystical force of nature—marks the point where momentum exploded, and it hints that this rally might be far from over. Volume: Steady, but the calm before the storm? A breakout could ignite fireworks. "Trust me bro" outlook: A clean breakout above the channel could push BTC toward $120K–$140K, as the beyond-spacetime symmetries remain undeniable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sa7en
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
#BITCOIN $BTC Key points this week!Here are the key points driving Bitcoin this week: New All-Time Highs: Bitcoin has surged to new all-time highs, breaking above $105,000, which indicates strong bullish momentum. This surge is partly attributed to the market's response to the anticipation of a pro-crypto administration under President-elect Donald Trump. Potential Bitcoin Reserve Asset Status: There's buzz around the possibility that the Trump administration might designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset, which could further solidify its value and acceptance. This news has been a significant driver for Bitcoin's price increase. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market sentiment is being influenced by expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which generally favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates can lead to increased investment in cryptocurrencies as investors seek higher returns. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis: Bitcoin's market is showing signs of stability with a reduced Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), suggesting that future uncertainties might be less of a concern, leading to a potentially calmer market environment. Technical analysis also indicates positive trends, with Bitcoin closing the week inside key Gann arcs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if these levels are broken. Economic Events: Key U.S. economic events this week, including PMI, Fed rates, GDP, and inflation data, are expected to influence Bitcoin's volatility and investor sentiment. These events could either reinforce the bullish trend or introduce some corrections depending on the outcomes. ETF Inflows and Whale Activity: Positive ETF inflows and an increase in whale buys are contributing to the bullish sentiment. There's no significant sell pressure around the $100,000 mark, supporting the upward movement in price. These points collectively suggest a week where Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, driven by both macroeconomic policies and market dynamics. However, the crypto market is notoriously volatile, and these factors could also lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BaseLineTraders
BTC SELL SETUP may not be moving as expected today due to several factors: 1. Low Volatility: Mondays, particularly the first trading day of the week, often experience low volatility as traders and investors analyze the previous week's market events and wait for significant catalysts. 2. Lack of Fundamental Triggers: If there are no major economic data releases or geopolitical events scheduled for today, the market could remain range-bound. 3. Holiday Effect: Sometimes, certain global markets might be partially closed or have reduced participation, especially if a holiday overlaps with the start of the trading week. 4. Technical Adjustments: Market participants might be waiting for key levels to be tested before committing to new positions, resulting in sideways movement.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by SadarExplore
RED LINE updateChart is with 4 hour candles. So far 2 full candle bodies have closed above the red line. If the red line will act as support then it's going to go off. I'm expecting a pullback from this level but it could be very explosive in either direction. I'm expecting the bull market to play out on a longer time frame... like the next 8-12 months. So it would be expected to have some pullback to make a much larger move later in the cycle. That being said I can't really ignore this trading level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Narsty_Boy
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above 100,000 dollars!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone(ATH) . After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 92 thousand dollars. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw capital inflows on every single day, recording a total of $2.2 billion in investments.Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs continued their strong performance from the previous two weeks, accumulating approximately $1 billion in inflows last week, which is a significant amount. Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders voted against the proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during its annual meeting on December 10. The resolution was introduced by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington, D.C., which framed the proposal as a way to provide value to shareholders through profit diversification. However, the shareholders ultimately rejected it. Daniel Batten, an environmentalist and Bitcoin advocate, claimed that Alex de Vries’ “singular opinion” in 2018, as the founder of Digiconomist, was the foundation for all flawed studies on Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Batten argued that this misinformation has led to widespread misunderstandings among the public, investors, and policymakers, causing Bitcoin to be mistakenly seen as an environmental threat. However, newer studies suggest that many of these claims are incorrect, and Bitcoin could even have environmental benefits. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not tied to the number of transactions and that the network can exponentially increase transaction volumes without raising emissions. Robert Kiyosaki, a Bitcoin investor, entrepreneur, and author of the bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has once again predicted an imminent major crash and urged his followers to buy Bitcoin before it happens. In his recent tweet, Kiyosaki specifically addressed the Baby Boomer generation, to which he belongs, highlighting that Bitcoin is a new and confusing asset for many in that demographic. In his tweet, Kiyosaki wrote, “The biggest crash in history is coming. Please act early and get rich.” This warning came as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. Earlier this year, Kiyosaki predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025 and as much as $1 million by 2030, citing AI-based forecasts for his projections. The number of daily active crypto users has reached an all-time high of 18.7 million, a sharp increase from just 7.7 million at the beginning of 2024. A group of Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), has suggested that Amazon invest at least 5% of its assets in Bitcoin. They argue that Bitcoin has outperformed most asset classes, including corporate bonds. Notably, MicroStrategy, a company that has integrated Bitcoin into its treasury management, has seen its stock outperform Amazon by a significant 537% over the past year. Meanwhile, BlackRock recently purchased an additional 3,910 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to approximately 535,000 Bitcoins, valued at $53 billion. As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock has shifted its focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum while delaying the launch of any new altcoin-based ETFs. The head of BlackRock’s ETF division stated that the company now aims to expand its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, given their stellar performance so far. Additionally, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted at another Bitcoin purchase in a recent tweet. He wrote, “Does saylortracker miss a green dot?” This cryptic message appears to reference yet another significant Bitcoin acquisition by Saylor. Similar messages from him in the past have often preceded announcements of large Bitcoin purchases. For instance, Saylor has previously teased major Bitcoin buys through similar tweets, which were later confirmed. Nasdaq also announced that the largest Bitcoin-holding company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index starting December 23.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND