Check the trend The current uptrend is expected to end at the current resistance levels and we will see the start of a correction.
If the price breaks through the 88.6% level, the above scenario will be invalidated.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin movement predictionFirst of all, I am glad that my previous prediction was correct. Now, when I look at the chart, you can see the Elliott waves, you can see the movement of the fifth wave both in the larger time frame and the movement of the fifth wave in a part of the same wave, in the smaller wave! Considering this, we can expect that there are two options ahead: 1- a move to the ceiling of 110,000 for the peak of wave 5 and option 2- a corrective move and the start of wave A to the support level of $100,000.
LONG: $BTC Laser focused on 138K (when you see it)Bitcoin is riding a steady upward-sloping channel, keeping the bulls in control. The Golden Spiral—a mystical force of nature—marks the point where momentum exploded, and it hints that this rally might be far from over.
Volume: Steady, but the calm before the storm? A breakout could ignite fireworks.
"Trust me bro" outlook:
A clean breakout above the channel could push BTC toward $120K–$140K, as the beyond-spacetime symmetries remain undeniable.
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles.
"Crypto is an expression of Macro."
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation.
Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets.
In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management:
1. Quantitative Easing (QE)
The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention:
- Prevented a complete economic collapse
- Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets
- Kept interest rates artificially low
- Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession
2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management:
- Coordinated interest rate decisions
- Shared information about economic interventions
- Created global liquidity pools
3. Cyclical Liquidity Management
The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through:
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Strategic interest rate adjustments
- Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one
The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of:
- 2-3 years of expansionary policy
- Followed by a contraction or normalization period
This cycle typically involves:
- Expanding money supply
- Lowering interest rates
- Supporting asset prices
- Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating
The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions.
This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
#BITCOIN $BTC Key points this week!Here are the key points driving Bitcoin this week:
New All-Time Highs: Bitcoin has surged to new all-time highs, breaking above $105,000, which indicates strong bullish momentum. This surge is partly attributed to the market's response to the anticipation of a pro-crypto administration under President-elect Donald Trump.
Potential Bitcoin Reserve Asset Status: There's buzz around the possibility that the Trump administration might designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset, which could further solidify its value and acceptance. This news has been a significant driver for Bitcoin's price increase.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market sentiment is being influenced by expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which generally favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates can lead to increased investment in cryptocurrencies as investors seek higher returns.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis: Bitcoin's market is showing signs of stability with a reduced Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), suggesting that future uncertainties might be less of a concern, leading to a potentially calmer market environment. Technical analysis also indicates positive trends, with Bitcoin closing the week inside key Gann arcs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if these levels are broken.
Economic Events: Key U.S. economic events this week, including PMI, Fed rates, GDP, and inflation data, are expected to influence Bitcoin's volatility and investor sentiment. These events could either reinforce the bullish trend or introduce some corrections depending on the outcomes.
ETF Inflows and Whale Activity: Positive ETF inflows and an increase in whale buys are contributing to the bullish sentiment. There's no significant sell pressure around the $100,000 mark, supporting the upward movement in price.
These points collectively suggest a week where Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, driven by both macroeconomic policies and market dynamics. However, the crypto market is notoriously volatile, and these factors could also lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.
updateThis Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For educational Purpose to Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView
BTC/USD ShortIf we break this level, the price of BTC/USD could drop fairly quickly in my opinion. Let's watch and see what happens.
BTC SELL SETUP may not be moving as expected today due to several factors:
1. Low Volatility: Mondays, particularly the first trading day of the week, often experience low volatility as traders and investors analyze the previous week's market events and wait for significant catalysts.
2. Lack of Fundamental Triggers: If there are no major economic data releases or geopolitical events scheduled for today, the market could remain range-bound.
3. Holiday Effect: Sometimes, certain global markets might be partially closed or have reduced participation, especially if a holiday overlaps with the start of the trading week.
4. Technical Adjustments: Market participants might be waiting for key levels to be tested before committing to new positions, resulting in sideways movement.
RED LINE updateChart is with 4 hour candles. So far 2 full candle bodies have closed above the red line. If the red line will act as support then it's going to go off. I'm expecting a pullback from this level but it could be very explosive in either direction.
I'm expecting the bull market to play out on a longer time frame... like the next 8-12 months. So it would be expected to have some pullback to make a much larger move later in the cycle. That being said I can't really ignore this trading level.
(Spicy) December 12 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Above is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There will be an indicator announcement at 10:30 shortly.
*Red finger long position strategy.
The Nasdaq has touched the 30-minute resistance line,
but the 2-hour chart MACD dead cross is in progress,
so I judge that a vertical rise is difficult.
Since it is breaking out of the 30+1 section,
the short-term pattern is breaking a little bit,
but I followed the trend for a strong rise.
As a risk factor,
there is a possibility of being swept away if the orange resistance line above No. 1 is broken, so you should be careful.
Also, since there was no reversal after the vertical rise in CPI yesterday,
an adjustment may come right away, so please take note.
If we just maintain the green support line today,
and move sideways, Bitcoin will be free.
This is the 30-minute Tether Dominance chart.
Since the downward trend is open due to yesterday's movement,
and Bitcoin is in an upward trend,
I tried to enter the short position operation method in reverse.
If it fails to break through the pink resistance line,
it will be a vertical decline,
but if you look at the candle shape on the left,
since a full candle is in place,
the short position entry point is at 3.96%
It is roughly the 30-minute resistance line + the 1-hour chart resistance line.
Since the topmost point is a textbook-like position for a 3.99% short position,
if it fails to break through the red resistance line today,
it seems very likely to fall.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq is renewing its all-time high,
but Bitcoin has not yet broken through its all-time high.
Therefore, the possibility of a sweep condition seems low,
and based on the Nasdaq strategy and the Tether Dominance short position entry point,
we proceeded with the strategy with a strong upward condition.
For reference, Bitcoin also touched the center line of the 1-hour Bollinger Band chart alone, so the short-term pattern is broken,
and the 2-hour MACD dead cross pressure is in progress,
so the vertical rise looks low.
Today, the 1+4 section looks dangerous,
and the match was decided at the middle point, the 30-minute support + 1-hour support line of the Bollinger Band pattern.
*Red finger movement path
One-way long position strategy
1. $99780.5 long position entry section / When the green support line is broken
Or when section 2 is touched, stop loss price
2. $103,718 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd target price
If the strategy is successful, section 1 is the long position operation section.
Since it can rise without adjustment,
It seems advantageous to re-enter the long position without operating a short position.
The stop loss price is
The green parallel line support line at the bottom -> sky blue autonomous depending on the remaining drawing.
Since there was no resistance line touch on the 30-minute chart today,
You should be careful because it can end as a slight adjustment or sideways movement in section 1 at the top.
The orange resistance line at the top and the sky blue support line at the bottom
are sideways movement sections.
Section 2 is a textbook short position <-> BIT can be a long position entry point compared to Tether Dominance, which moves in the opposite direction.
If the green support line is maintained today,
it seems that there will be no problem in the upward trend,
and I have drawn the support line and checked the price from below Section 2.
And, I have been giving you a hint recently.
I explained that you don't need to worry too much about BIT movement.
I wonder if you had fun with minor altcoins in the Bitcoin rebound yesterday.
Depending on the movement today,
the sideways movement may continue,
so it would be good to aim for minor altcoins at the same time
until the red resistance line top section is broken -> the new high price is updated.
This was a very spicy hellfire analysis article.
I don't know if you liked it.
I am a person who does it if I have to. The quality can be adjusted as much as I can within my capabilities, so
Please refer to it,
and please use my analysis articles only for reference and use,
and I hope you operate safely with the principle of trading and stop loss.
Thank you always.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above 100,000 dollars!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone(ATH) . After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 92 thousand dollars.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw capital inflows on every single day, recording a total of $2.2 billion in investments.Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs continued their strong performance from the previous two weeks, accumulating approximately $1 billion in inflows last week, which is a significant amount.
Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders voted against the proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during its annual meeting on December 10. The resolution was introduced by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington, D.C., which framed the proposal as a way to provide value to shareholders through profit diversification. However, the shareholders ultimately rejected it.
Daniel Batten, an environmentalist and Bitcoin advocate, claimed that Alex de Vries’ “singular opinion” in 2018, as the founder of Digiconomist, was the foundation for all flawed studies on Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Batten argued that this misinformation has led to widespread misunderstandings among the public, investors, and policymakers, causing Bitcoin to be mistakenly seen as an environmental threat. However, newer studies suggest that many of these claims are incorrect, and Bitcoin could even have environmental benefits. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not tied to the number of transactions and that the network can exponentially increase transaction volumes without raising emissions.
Robert Kiyosaki, a Bitcoin investor, entrepreneur, and author of the bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has once again predicted an imminent major crash and urged his followers to buy Bitcoin before it happens. In his recent tweet, Kiyosaki specifically addressed the Baby Boomer generation, to which he belongs, highlighting that Bitcoin is a new and confusing asset for many in that demographic.
In his tweet, Kiyosaki wrote, “The biggest crash in history is coming. Please act early and get rich.” This warning came as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. Earlier this year, Kiyosaki predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025 and as much as $1 million by 2030, citing AI-based forecasts for his projections.
The number of daily active crypto users has reached an all-time high of 18.7 million, a sharp increase from just 7.7 million at the beginning of 2024.
A group of Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), has suggested that Amazon invest at least 5% of its assets in Bitcoin. They argue that Bitcoin has outperformed most asset classes, including corporate bonds. Notably, MicroStrategy, a company that has integrated Bitcoin into its treasury management, has seen its stock outperform Amazon by a significant 537% over the past year.
Meanwhile, BlackRock recently purchased an additional 3,910 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to approximately 535,000 Bitcoins, valued at $53 billion. As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock has shifted its focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum while delaying the launch of any new altcoin-based ETFs.
The head of BlackRock’s ETF division stated that the company now aims to expand its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, given their stellar performance so far.
Additionally, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted at another Bitcoin purchase in a recent tweet. He wrote, “Does saylortracker miss a green dot?” This cryptic message appears to reference yet another significant Bitcoin acquisition by Saylor. Similar messages from him in the past have often preceded announcements of large Bitcoin purchases. For instance, Saylor has previously teased major Bitcoin buys through similar tweets, which were later confirmed.
Nasdaq also announced that the largest Bitcoin-holding company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index starting December 23.
$Bitcoin channel
Short update
We are currently trading in a bull channel. Still positive for now and we expect the upcoming correction to remain above 100k.
Without a breakout, I expect that we will go back and forth again before we enter the real bull run.
Be kind to the world and each other.
BTC Backtest draftWorking towards an extended swing trading bot that helps automate crypto trading
SMA crossover + Volatility threshold
Another leg up for BTCUSD?It's the weekend but i am seeing another leg up for BTC.
If price holds in H4 until London Session, this will be viable.
Any thoughts?
Well, we’re past 105k. What next people? Let’s discuss ideas. I expect a short increase then a sharp dip, but it’s Bitcoin so do the opposite and you’ll do great.
Key Levels Overview for the Week 12.2024(16-20)🔲Key Levels Overview for the Week🔳
12.2024(16-20)
Dynamic Supports🔀
105313
101500
100500
99000
98000
Dynamic Resistance🔀
105313
106363
112400
115700
119300
Mid Pivot (🫎bull&bear🐻 zone ch trend)
123292
111511
99737
range of supply and demand
115243
107672
100100
Bitcoin trackingIt is just a matter of having patience so that everything fits in each analysis. Next stop 110k? We'll see...
The RED LINE returns!BTC has finally broken through this moving resistance line. In the short term prices need to hold above 103.8k to continue bullish parabola. Otherwise it could be months before bull market resumes.
$BTC 4Hr Analyzing the CRYPTOCAP:BTC coin chart on the 4-hour timeframe:
- **Symmetrical Triangle**: A well-structured symmetrical triangle is visible, with equal angles on both sides, indicating potential for an imminent breakout. The price is currently below the upper resistance line, suggesting a possible upward movement soon. A target around $113k has been discussed based on the pole of this pattern.
- **Bullish Divergence**: There have been instances of bullish divergence with RSI on the 4-hour chart, particularly noted in May and July 2024, where the RSI was not confirming the price lows, suggesting underlying strength.
- **Bearish Divergence**: Conversely, bearish divergences have also been observed, especially when the RSI was overbought, indicating potential short-term pullbacks or corrections. This was notably seen in November 2024, signaling a possible reset before further upward moves.
- **Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: Key resistance levels were noted around the psychological barrier of $100,000, with movements above this level suggesting strong bullish momentum.
- **Support**: The price has found support at various levels, with significant attention being paid to where the 50 EMA and other moving averages lie, particularly after the price drops.
- **Trendline Analysis**: The 4-hour chart often shows Bitcoin testing its trendlines, both as support and resistance. A bullish move is often confirmed when the price breaks and holds above these trendlines.
- **Volume and Market Sentiment**: There's been discussion about distribution and HODL-ing behavior, with the Long/Short-Term Holder Supply Ratio dropping, suggesting less long-term holding and potentially more active trading or distribution.
- **Price Targets**: Based on various analyses, especially around breakout scenarios from patterns like the symmetrical triangle, targets have been suggested around $113k, with some posts on X indicating this could be reached quickly in a lower timeframe setting.
- **Current Sentiment**: The sentiment from X posts shows a mix of optimism for continued upward trends with cautions for potential corrections. The recent activity around $100,000 has sparked discussions on whether Bitcoin will continue its bullish run or face a significant correction.
In summary, the 4-hour chart for CRYPTOCAP:BTC shows a battle between bullish and bearish forces, with technical patterns like symmetrical triangles indicating potential for significant price moves. The emphasis on divergences, especially with RSI, gives clues on momentum, while the community on X watches for breakouts from key levels to confirm trend directions. Always consider that crypto markets can be influenced by broader market sentiment, macroeconomic news, and regulatory changes, which can alter technical predictions.
Next BTCUSD buy ZoneI am going to assume that the US dollar is increasing in value until we get to the debt ceiling decision. I am expecting a move up to and perhaps beyond the $103-$104 area.
If this happens I have to assume that the BTCUSD will come tumbling down into my next buy zone. If we don't take out the next weekly level, this will be a great buying opportunity. But some sort of confirmation will be needed.
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system.
The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action.
Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book.
However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside.
It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
comment : I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Nothing
