Bitcoin could retest 4hr 200ema and then run hard!I think a small pull back is likely, we are so close to the 200ema and perhaps it will converge with up-sloping and down-sloping resistance for a volatile reaction. Not financial advice, DYOR
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
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BITCOIN STILL BULISH WEEKLY CANDLE Still weekly candle showing bulish no rejection any !
i'm personally see BITCOIN in buy side BC market rejection declined from 96.500 again closing weekly candle in buy side so soon BITCOIN will hit 104000 106000
same area is target
Bitcoin’s $100K Showdown: Will Bulls Hold the Line?Hello Intrepid Traders ,
We have here the 1 Hour Chart of BTC/USD pair on Coinbase.
Bitcoin is navigating a critical point in its 1-hour chart, trading within a well-established ascending channel while hovering near the psychological $100,000 mark. The RSI has dipped near its oversold support zone, historically signaling potential reversals, but bearish divergence looms. With the 50 and 200 EMA providing dynamic support, is Bitcoin primed for a breakout or a deeper pullback? This analysis dives into the RSI, price action, and critical support and resistance levels to uncover what lies ahead for the king of crypto.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Observations
RSI:
The RSI is near 50, indicating market indecision.
The green RSI zone marks historical oversold levels, signaling potential bullish reversals if touched.
Price Action:
Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel with clear higher highs and higher lows.
Support Levels:
$100,000: Strong support near the channel's lower trendline and 200 EMA (red).
Resistance Levels:
$103,000 - $105,000: Key channel resistance and short-term target.
EMA Analysis:
The 50 EMA (green) is above the 200 EMA (red), signaling short-term bullish momentum.
The 200 EMA ($100,000) acts as critical support.
Scenarios and Suggested Actions
Bullish Scenario:
If RSI moves above 50 and the price holds above the 50 EMA, Bitcoin is likely to test $103,000 - $105,000.
A breakout above the channel could push the price to $107,000 or higher.
Bearish Scenario:
If Bitcoin breaks below $100,000 and the RSI dips into the green oversold zone, expect a retracement toward $97,000 - $98,000 or lower.
Action Plan:
Short-Term Traders:
Buy on a breakout above $101,000 with a target of $103,000 - $105,000.
Sell or short on a breakdown below $100,000, targeting $97,000.
Long-Term Investors:
Hold or buy more at $97,000 - $100,000 for long-term gains.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture. While the ascending channel and the RSI’s green zone suggest potential for a bullish rebound, the indecisive RSI near 50 and critical support around $100,000 mean the market could swing in either direction. Traders should monitor the RSI closely—if it rebounds above 50, expect bullish continuation toward $105,000 or higher. Conversely, a breakdown below the channel’s support near $100,000 would signal bearish pressure, with targets around $97,000 or lower.
Whether you’re bullish or bearish, this is a time for careful planning. Dynamic supports like the 50 and 200 EMA can provide good entry points, but risk management is key in this volatile zone.
Leave your questions and comments below.
More power to all your trades!
Intrepid Trader
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Always conduct your research or consult a professional advisor before making trading decisions.
#btc #elliottwave short sell setup wave 4 a 15Dec24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
BTC FIB BREAKOUTAfter Bitcoin's Fibonacci channel breakout, there are three possible TP levels, marked in red.
My personal opinion is that the first level might find sellers, leading to a test of the 83k level. At this point, I anticipate people flooding into the market, triggering FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). This could result in a temporary pullback, which I don't see as a problem but rather as a potential buying opportunity.
During bull markets, it's common for prices to rise without providing clear buying opportunities.
The chart includes an imaginary price movement, reflecting my expectations. Whether it plays out or not is irrelevant. What truly matters are the price and trend.
This is not financial advice.
BTCUSD: Short Signal Explained
BTCUSD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell BTCUSD
Entry Level - 10260
Sl - 10441
Tp - 98952
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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BTC is hovering around 100K, trying to consolidateBTC is hovering around 100K, trying to consolidate in narrow zone before upward momrentum continues
BITCOIN (BTC) SHORT TERM TARGET AND LONG TERM TARGET It looks like you're planning to sell Bitcoin (BTC) around 103,500 with target price levels of 97,000 and 102,000. Here's a breakdown of your trade plan:
Sell Position Details
Sell Entry Price: 103,500
Target 1: 102,000 (short-term target)
Target 2: 97,000 (longer-term target)
Risk Management
Set a stop-loss to manage risks effectively. For example, if BTC rises significantly above 103,500 (e.g., 104,500 or 105,000), you may consider exiting to avoid further losses.
Market Analysis Tips
Check for support and resistance levels near your targets.
Keep an eye on market trends, news, and technical indicators (RSI, MACD) to validate price movements. CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD
BTC-USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION)hello my fellow traders, share your opinion about this chart.
current price: 101500
from this position a strong drop is expected as market has rejected today the 102600 twice and has created a strong bearish trend. before hitting a new high market will drop a little which it will use as a backup and support to go further high. if btc price drops now from 101500 then its next target will be 99000.
please like comment and thsnks for support
BTC is not doneWe all see what we want to see on the charts.
However, this does not change the fact that we are in a bull market and the potential for BTC to go up is always a better gamble .
Bitcoin's 486 days marathon after halving to reach the 150,000 !The Basics of Bitcoin's Analysis
As we approach the anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving on April 15th, 2024, the mining of Bitcoin’s 19,656,962nd coin is a testament to the network’s enduring strength, bringing the circulating supply to 90% of the total. The ‘rainbow chart’ remains a popular model for visualizing Bitcoin’s logarithmic growth and its cyclical price patterns.
The halving events, pivotal in Bitcoin’s economic model, systematically reduce the block reward, thereby constraining the new supply of Bitcoin. The current reward stands at 6.25 BTC per block, which will decrease to 3.125 BTC post the fourth halving. This deflationary mechanism has historically triggered bullish market sentiments as the reduced flow of new coins amplifies scarcity.
Analyzing the cycles between halvings, a clear pattern emerges: the initial 70,000 blocks post-halving often usher in a bullish phase, succeeded by a bearish phase up to the 140,000th block, and culminating in a sideways market until the next halving at the 210,000th block.
Bitcoin’s market dominance is also subject to cyclical fluctuations. Since 2016, its dominance has dipped below 40% during bearish phases and soared to around 70% during bullish periods, significantly influencing the broader cryptocurrency market.
The average drawdown observed between halvings is approximately 80%. Currently, in the sideways phase of the third cycle, projections based on the intersection of the 210,000th block and the lower logarithmic regression boundary suggest a valuation of $30,000 per Bitcoin. The forthcoming era could witness a peak of $150,000, with an 80% drawdown positioning the potential low at $55,000 during the bearish phase, commencing 486 days after the halving.
Where are we Today?
Recent market analyses align with these projections, indicating a minor retracement a month after the 2024 halving, followed by a significant rally to new heights. Analysts advise caution as the market nears the halving event, with some predicting a pre-halving sell-off. Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, with predictions of a new all-time high price in each 4-year period between Halving dates.
The only indicator to consider: The MVRV Ratio and Z-score
The MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell hot on the heals of the invention of the Realized Cap concept by the Coinmetrics team of Nic Carter and Antoine Le Calvez. Realized Cap is an alternative approach to Market Cap as a measure of network valuation. Rather than using the last traded price and multiplying by the coins in circulation as seen in Market Cap, Realized Cap approximates the value paid for all coins in existence by summing the market value of coins at the time they last moved on the blockchain. MVRV is simply the ratio comparing the two, i.e. MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap. It’s useful for getting a sense of when the exchange traded price is below “fair value” and is also quite useful for spotting market tops and bottoms (Source: Coinmetrics.com).
The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing the total bitcoin market value (MV) by its realized value (RV). Therefore, the metric represents the extent in which the current bitcoin market valuation is overextended beyond (values >1) or actually at a discount (values <1) compared to the holders’ aggregated cost base.
From the MVRV ratio we obtain the MVRV z-score, which first calculates the difference between the total bitcoin market value and its realized value, and then divides that by the standard deviation of the market valuation — a common statistical procedure called “standardization.” The MVRV z-scores, therefore, represent the number of standard deviations that each bitcoin market valuation is increased or decreased against its realized value (Remember z-score >1 means overextended and z-score <1 discount)
What do indicators say?
We are currently at the dusk of the 3rd halving era which occurred on May 11th 2020, more precisely the END of the sideways phase.
The MVRV ratio is at 2.24 giving sights of a Fair Value.
Historically, Values over '3.7' indicated price top and values below '1' indicated price bottom.(Source: CryptoQuant)
(It is crucial to note that these insights are for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and while historical data can provide guidance, it does not guarantee future performance).
BITCOIN PATTERNHi Traders
What are you thinking about BTC
This price seems in Buy Side From 100k So keep eye on it
Resistance Zone 105K
Support Zone 98K
May Price will Test to the Support Zone But Again Pull Back You Can see details in the chart.
Lets Like and share your Minds In Comments
BTC USD LongBTC USD long has bounced off the previous marked fair value gap.
The price may come lower, but you can see on the chart that I've previously drawn the possible route of the price.
SL - 103138
TP - 107101
December 17 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
The Nasdaq indicator will be announced at 10:30 in a little while.
Today, I made a strategy through a very fair vote.
If the strategy fails, there is a possibility of sideways movement and additional adjustments after tomorrow, so
please note.
Today, I will start the strategy for a 5% probability vertical rise.
*When the red finger moves
Long position strategy
1. 106,891 dollars long position entry section / When the purple support line is broken
or when section 1 is touched, stop loss price
2. 108,784.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Good 2nd -> Great 3rd
107,843.5 dollars in the middle
is a textbook-like autonomous long position section
If the purple parallel line support line is maintained until the daily candle is created
Is it valid?
Also, rather than proceeding aggressively today,
all patterns were restored after the report was updated,
and since the 15-minute Bollinger Band support line has not been touched even once,
we tried to enter the rising pattern and decided the game.
On the other hand, there is a possibility of a vertical decline in Tether Dominance.
From the touch of the 1st section at the bottom,
the short-term pattern is broken, and there is a possibility of additional adjustment after tomorrow,
so if the strategy succeeds within the purple parallel line support line today,
it is definitely good.
The 2nd section at the very bottom
is the 1+4 section,
so if the strategy fails today,
keep it open until 2.
As explained in the video,
when Bitcoin is in an upward trend, it will go together with the major altcoins,
and after the adjustment, there is a high possibility of a cyclical pumping from the minor altcoins in the rebound.
Since you have been spreading it hard, it is time to reap it now, right?
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use only.
I hope that you will operate safely with the principle of trading and cut-off price.
Thank you for reading.
BITCOIN - MOON CYCLE ANALYSIS - CryptoManiac101The chart shows Bitcoin's price action over time on a 4-hour timeframe, overlayed with moon phases (full moons and new moons). Here’s a quick analysis based on the visible data:
1. Moon Phases and Price Movement:
- Full Moons: The price tends to show upward momentum following full moons in several instances on the chart.
- New Moons: Downward or neutral trends often appear to coincide after new moons, though this is not always consistent.
2. Pattern Observations:
- The moon phases might align with local price tops or bottoms, suggesting potential psychological or cyclical effects in the market.
- This relationship is not strictly consistent, as some moon phases do not correlate directly with significant price changes.
3. General Price Trends:
- The chart shows a strong upward trend in the latter months (October-December), with some consolidation periods after peaks.
4. Potential Implications:
- If trading with moon phases, full moons could be monitored as potential entry points for upward price movements, while new moons might signal caution or possible pullbacks.
- Combining this observation with other technical indicators like RSI, moving averages, or support/resistance levels would improve reliability.
For even more fun, the red boxes on the chart symbolize periods of time we were in Mercury Retrograde.
Just FIY, this is for entertainment purposes and is not financial advice.
CYCLE 4 | RSI Monthly TrendA quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI.
We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values.
Using trend lines (based on historic BTC behavior in the past), we can speculate what would not be abnormal monthly RSI behavior for this cycles (Cycle 4) top and the future bear market low.
Have a play with the interactive tools in the post to observe details more clearly.
I have also detailed Cycle 1-3 length from the bottom to the top, bear markets (top to bottom), halving's and each cycles Fib extensions for your reference.
For greater detail, reference the below companion post to this discussion.
Bitcoin Punches 108k Bulls up Bears Down!Bitcoin www.tradingview.com has broke past $108K, and the next key resistance levels are $110K and $112K . The $110K zone acts as psychological resistance where profit-taking is expected, while $112K aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last breakout, a major target for traders watching harmonic patterns like AB=CD.
Key Indicators and Patterns
1. Bullish Flag Breakout: Bitcoin’s flag pattern breakout pushed prices with strong momentum.
2. MACD: A bullish crossover on the daily chart signals continuation potential.
3. RSI: At 74, momentum remains strong, though nearing overbought conditions
4. Volume Spike: Institutional buying has validated the breakout—big money moves faster than your ex on payday.
If Bitcoin clears $112K, the next target aligns near $120K-132k based on extended Fibonacci levels. For now, bulls are pounding the bears harder than a heavyweight boxer, and momentum indicators favor continued upside.
Congratulations to everyone for reaching this milestone—let’s stay focused and keep riding this bull like it owes us rent! Don't forget to follow to keep get daily updates!
Bitcoin entering positive short term momentumAs predicted bitcoin is following the cycle very closely. We have been building a position inside the November bearish short term momentum (green dots) and we are about to re entry bullish short term momentum as indicated by SMAX.
Probability levels are below 20 indicating we are later in the cycle and the delta is about to turn positive (bullish momentum)
Our trade is in good profit already as the fun is about to begin!
Will keep you updated!
BTC , Mother candle Breakout BTC is in Bullish momentum , Even though last 26 days was in sideways range making it a flag .
Monthly and weekly both are up.
5 Dec candle is significant in terms of volume and price is in the range of its high and low ( Daily).
MACD is in positive zone , RSI is above 60 signify momentum. if it breaks out expecting target up to 114000.
Open and Low of todays candle is same , only problem is volume, its less then average .
View is my own and not an investment advice but for learning purpose only .
short 107900 with tp at 100500 sound legit target it will go here easily and i think much more or bit more
but for no risk i take this legit target after the rally he just done its amazing
i not make stop loss in this scenario coz if he go to 110 000 i will had 1 lot and keep my target
if he go 115 000 same...no leverage if u have small balance then apply your RR
