ES Overnight price action review & Friday Review 8-26-24Going over price action OVernight ES and the jackson hole day. looking back at the clues the market was telling us and how we positioned for the day. no A+ trade setups today no trades.
WSP1! trade ideas
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for a trend reversal at 5642.00 to the zone between 5182 and 5135.75.
Monday's Plan ES and NQSunday evening; WE RALLIED AT THE OPEN OF THE Sunday futures session. Typically there will be a reversal to go back down to pivot/VWAP by the MONDAY CASH open.
Since Mondays typically are Bullish, according to backtesting... "they" will sell overnight until London opens, this could lead to. big rally by NYSE open. So i'd like to go long with london. Later in the day I will short.
However NQ is at R4 a high sell level and appears to be rolling over after 5" of buying. I could see NQ going as low as S3 19675 before bouncing.
As I explained on my last idea each day has a bullish HOD and a bearish LOD. Expect bullishness at the open and a selloff later ij the day just like everyday, 5 waves up abc down.
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way.
Quote from last week:
comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again.
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600.
medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
Full ES Trading Plan for Aug 26thPlan For Monday: supports are 5642, 5630 (major), 5620, 5616, 5612 (major), 5605 (major), 5598, 5594, 5588-86 (major), 5576, 5572, 5566 (major), 5560, 5547, 5534-38 (major).
Levels to Bid:
• Still holding my runner from the 5588-93 long Friday night and letting it ride. I added another 25% around 5647 late in the day because my cost basis is low, so as long as we’re above break-even, I’m holding.
• It should be clear by now that ES is setting up a new consolidation range between 5659 and 5588-92. This range is wide and could become a bit of a battleground. Must take profits level by level. Overtrade within this range, the market will eat your lunch.
• Everything in this range is choppy with poor follow-through, so it’s best to wait for failed breakdowns, trade level to level, leave runners on, and stop overtrading. Since Tuesday, the structure looks like a “megaphone” or early bull flag. There are several critical levels in this range that have been heavily tested, so you’ll need to be nimble.
• First Level Down: 5630. It’s been worked a lot, so I’ll watch the volume in real-time. Ideally, I’d want to see it flush and reclaim, maybe down to 5620 before considering entries.
• This only applies if we haven’t broken out of the 5659 range first. If we break to new highs, then any new longs below are off the table.
• Below 5630: We’ve got the 5612 and 5605 cluster. Watch for failed breakdowns of Friday's low, and if we can hit 5605 or so and reclaim, I’ll be looking to go long. If things are looking particularly bearish, I might wait for 5612 to recover before jumping in.
• If 5588 fails: I’ll probably be flipping to shorts and won’t be interested in longs until around 5534-38.
Resistances:
• 5654, 5659 (major), 5662, 5672, 5679, 5687-90 (major), 5694, 5705 (major), 5714, 5720 (major), 5730 (major), 5737, 5746, 5749 (major), 5758, 5770 (major), 5778, 5785 (major).
• As usual, I have a strict “no shorting strength” rule when we’re in an uptrend. I just don’t do it. For those who are into that kind of risky play, 5659 has been tested a lot and has worked for shorts a few times already, so it’s probably losing reliability.
• Next risky short spot: 5687-90, then 5730 and 5785 if you’re feeling brave.
Buyers Case:
• I’m seeing 5588 to 5659 as a chop zone now, so the “buyers case” is the default as long as 5588 keeps holding. With this structure intact, I see the 5588-5659 range as just another bullish continuation pattern.
• Remember, in an uptrend, most traders assume all structures will break to the upside—because 80% of the time, they do. I’m not trying to be a hero and predict which 20% will fail; I’ll just short when one does. It's literally that simple. Til then, you stay with the trend.
• The buyers case for Monday would be more range filling, followed by a breakout targeting 5673, then 5687-90. After that, it’s probably on to all-time highs, with 5785 being the next big magnet.
• Ultra bullish scenario: ES doesn’t dip at all and goes straight up. This would likely see ES flagging below 5659 and above 5630, maybe without even hitting 5642 first. I’d consider adding in this case, especially if we probe under 5642 and recover, but it’s hard to get too specific without seeing how things play out Sunday night/Monday morning.
Sellers Case:
• Starts with a break below 5588. I’d need to see a final bounce/failed breakdown/reaction at 5588. After this plays out and its clear there is minimal demand left at the level, I will be shorting. Perhaps 5583 trigger. Level to level profit takes.
In general, defer to the trend as always. 5659 to 5588 = pure chop. We can fill this out in many ways. As long as this structure is intact, we push to 5672, 5687-90 next. Maybe a dip there, then on to 5705, 5730. If 5588 fails, we finally get a short trigger and start the leg down to 5538.
Watch the Asia sessionWatch the Asia session in the S&P 500 futures contract for follow through to the upside. The Asia time zone has not had a chance to respond to the up close on Friday. This means you want to see prices moving higher during this Asia session which begins at 5 o'clock Chicago time on Sunday.
Q3/1M boxes and 1d targets for the ladies On the left:
1d bullish on macro s1 @ 5593 s2 @ 5564, interim showing bearish rotation as we come up to the Q3 sell box- Interim r1 @ 5693, jus a breath beneath the ATH - DMI also pending bear.
On the right:
30m interim and macro pending bullish rotation ... targets inside 1d box + extension noted up to 5687 -- further push upside feasible on the wkly and Q3 range - however, mind the interim r1 on 1d @ 5694
30m bullish as long its it sustains north of 5616, targets noted if price breaches lower end of 8h buy box (blue/green box) @ 5614
Not noted on chart is interim s1 on monthly @ 5569 (roughly same level as s2 on 1d macro).. significant level as we stay bullish above that but break below and the monthly could roll bearish with feasible range downside to s2 @ 5332 and possibly s1 on 1M macro @ 4929.
The vola is incredibly generous, allow yourself to receive.
Appreciate the risk
Origins in Supply and Demand - Flag Chain ConceptsI have been using approaches like this for some time now. I hope you find it useful.
Thanks
ES OverNight Price ACtion Review 8-23-24going over the overnight Price Action ES also a bit of yesterday. looking for clues as to how the market wants to trade and looking for opportunities for todays Jackson Hole Event.
Resend: Full ES Plan For Today // Sent Out YesterdayPlan for Friday: Supports are: 5593-5588 (major), 5582, 5572, 5567 (major), 5560, 5555, 5540-45 (major), 5528 (major), 5519, 5512 (major), 5502.
Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech at 10am, and it could be as unpredictable as FOMC or CPI days, so trade cautiously. First off, size down—there's no point in risking big money in a market driven by algos and noise. Losing money on a known volatile day is a choice. Most professional traders have already called it a week and are skipping tomorrow—take note. Professionals focus on preserving profits, while retail traders often chase quick gains. This difference in mindset is why pros size down or stay out, while retail traders often lose money. Expect traps tomorrow—like with CPI/FOMC days, the first few moves might be fakeouts. It’s smart to wait for failed breakdowns rather than diving in. Also, avoid overtrading. Stick to level-to-level trades because price action could get complex and hard to predict. My approach will be to take one trade and protect it, only risking profits on a second trade if necessary. Tomorrow is all about preserving capital for me, and I’m only risking 10% of this week's profits. Keep in mind that last year’s Jackson Hole reaction was very bullish, but 2022’s was extremely bearish. Be ready for anything. First support is 5593-88, which we’ve been holding for a couple of hours. I’ll watch for flushes and reclaims of this zone. Given that it’s Jackson Hole day, if the market wants to sell off, it could blow through multiple supports, so I’ll be patient and wait for failed breakdowns before considering any longs. 5567 is the next support down, but I’m not interested in catching a falling knife tomorrow. Below that, 5540-45 is another level to watch. On a regular day, I’d look to buy here, but tomorrow I’ll wait for reactions before making any moves.
Resistances are 5604 (major), 5610, 5618-20 (major), 5623, 5630 (major), 5636, 5643, 5653 (major), 5661 (major), 5668, 5672, 5678, 5685 (major). I don’t short in uptrends, especially on Jackson Hole day. If you’re into risky trades, 5685 and 5705 might be worth considering, but it’s not my style.
Buyers case tomorrow, even after 11 days of rallying, a pullback would be normal and healthy. Remember, pullbacks in ES tend to be sharp drops, not slow grinds. Big picture, buyers are still in control above the breakout around 5450. Short-term, as long as we’re above 5588-93, they could push higher, targeting 5630 and 5652, with potential new highs after that.
Sellers case: it starts with a break below 5588-93, but be cautious—Jackson Hole days are tricky and full of traps. Ideally (on a normal day), I’d want to see perhaps one more bounce and/or failed breakdown here. After this, I am short 5584 or so. Level to level profit takes.
In general, Its Jackson Hole day, and the market will be on a mission to take your money. Size down. I don’t like “predicting” ahead of a day like this (since its impossible) but if I had to give a lean, its always to defer to the trend. As long as 5588-93 holds, we can simply resume up back to 5630, 5653. Perhaps final reaction, then breakout to 5685+. Sell<5588.
20240823 ESI anticipate more upside before the 10am HI news. The d bs raid will be ideal. There is only upside retracement to the top of the ORG Thursday on the chart though. The high volatility is probable today that is why it is very important to see more upside before the 10am (TGIF enviroment will be generated)that will provide the base for the later downside move and the DOL with new LOD.
AMP Futures - Alerts - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create alerts using Tradingview Mobile.
The market is readyThe S&P 500 market is ready for Powell's comments on Friday. I was expecting a more quiet positive close but the market broke to the downside with sellers in place. However, I am not looking for a big move to the downside and positive positive close on Friday.
August 23 Fridays planMy 3 year backtesting shows typically mondays are up and fridays end down. That doesn't mean we short all day...
I think we go up from here based on trend, candles, elliot, and this new chart overaly with my friend AnotherDAPTrader's strategy DAP Scalp 1 MAX.. Any questions ask him please. point is we have a doji above pivot and a 3 day ABC correction typical of wave 2. we should go up.
s3.tradingview.com
and I think we close lower by the end of the day on friday, after the morning
Also kudos to AlgoAlpha for his excellent indicator called Supertrended RSI
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
ICT lunch macro S&P500 long trade +3000 bucks win in 20min ICT lunch macro retracement setup long, targeting buyside luquidity, after a huge downside during the am session after 1min market structure shift and old NWOG support
Why Monitoring S&P 500 Futures is My Morning Trading Ritual!Every morning before the trading day begins, I have a ritual: I analyze the S&P 500 futures. For me, this isn’t just a routine—it's a crucial step in gauging the market's direction. The S&P 500 futures offer a snapshot of market sentiment and potential movements long before the regular trading session opens.
By examining the overnight action, I can identify key levels of support and resistance, and understand the market's mood—whether it's risk-on or risk-off. This early insight helps me set the tone for my trading day, allowing me to make informed decisions, anticipate possible trends, and adjust my strategies accordingly.
In a market where timing and positioning are everything, starting my day with a clear picture of where the broader market might be headed gives me a competitive edge. It’s about being proactive rather than reactive—preparing for the day’s opportunities and challenges with confidence.
Trading the ES cautiously, other areas are safer investmentsI explain in the video but ultimately I've only done 2 ES trades over the last 2 months, and avoided two false trading signals. The trading signals were not supported by multiple timeframe trends nor did I feel the economic data around them supported them either.
You can watch the video if you want the feedback overall. Ultimately, there is a GC trade forming today for a buy position at the close of today depending on what it looks like. I may just tap out my current contracts on the 6E and 6S though and take off work until after my trip in September.
There is going to likely be a buy signal on the ES tomorrow or Monday. At this point, all things being what they are, I think I'm going to ignore it.
Safe trading, remember your risk management.
ES OVernight PRice Action Review 8-22-24Going over ES price Action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we'll position for the morning session.
ES1! Future and index level for 22/Aug/2024 My bull index idea is not done yet. market makers already set up their positions for this today and tomorrow,
Bullish market !
My private indicators still indicate market is going high and high previous high level,
previous high level will be broken down.
CKZ Q&A Series- What is your Morning Routine?Pre-Market Preparation:
Review Overnight News and Earnings Reports:** I start by checking for any significant news, earnings reports, or events that might impact the market or specific stocks. This includes macroeconomic reports, company announcements, and sector-specific news.
- **Check Futures Markets:** I look at the S&P 500 futures (often the /ES or E-mini) to gauge the overall market sentiment heading into the day.
2. Tools and Platforms:
TradingView:** I use TradingView for charting and technical analysis. This platform allows me to apply various indicators, analyze multiple timeframes, and set alerts for key levels.
- **VX Algo Indicators:** I rely heavily on my proprietary VX Algo Signals, which include the VX Volume Algo, VX Bands, VX Super Mac D, and VX Moving Averages to identify potential buy and sell signals.
News Aggregators and Twitter: I monitor news aggregators and Twitter feeds for any last-minute developments that could influence the market.
Algorithmic Buy Signals:
VX Algo Signals: I look for buy signals generated by my VX Algo on the 48m timeframe, focusing on signals that align with other indicators and market conditions. I track the performance of these signals during the day and night, as this helps refine my strategy over time.
AMP Futures - Layouts - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access different chart layouts using TradingView Mobile app.
Holding its ownOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 held its own with a positive close and optimistic news about the possibility of a rate cut in September. With this type of environment and Powell speaking on Friday, look for another positive close on Thursday but not a large move. The objective would be a close above 5670.
