TSCO: Potential BuyPersonally missed the entry from yesterday at 210 USD. Expecting the price to climb towards 229 USD.
T1SC34 trade ideas
STDEV retracements with enhancementsIm looking for mean reversion opportunities in this stock currently. My SL is bassed on time to profit ratio. i dont use stop losses but will get out if theres a 50% decline. I tested for probalistic monthly sharpe ratio outperformance of the s and p 500.
I tested for monthly normality with the kolmogrov smirnov statistic. and looked for a non-significant p-value in order to signify the distibution fitting
I measured the annual sharpe ratio outperformance. I also measured the uler,calmar,sterling and martin ratio to compare ma drawdown, avg drawdown and loss after previous loss using the ulcer index.
I used the hurst exponent to measure if the return distributions are indeed mean reverting then lastly i created a portfolio based around a basket of qualified stocks and maximized its sharpe ratio.
TSCO - Don't back up the trailer just yet...Quarterly candle was a bearish engulfing, suggesting lower prices for this quarter. Other indicators also suggest one more push down is needed to complete this wave 4 correction/flat. Although the recent moves off the lows can be seen as motive, there is not a clean impulsive structure that really fits what the candles are saying on larger time frames. Last week was a bearish engulfing candle and something tells me this week will morph into a doji that will create a bearish harami combo, adding more fuel to this thesis. GLTA!
$TSCO - Green Line Break to ATHBreakout to ATH. Technical analysis suggests a move to $300 (Profit zone 1) and FWB:340 (Profit zone2) is likely over the next couple of years.
$TSCO - Tractor Supply ToppingTractor Supply... Love this store / company, although I have been out of the cattle business entirely (formally) for about a year now.
Anyway, TSCO looks like top.. So, with a basket full of chicken and a big cold jug of sweet tea, we will treat it like a top.
Head and ShouldersATH 241.54.
Looks like a H&S that is still above the neckline of 206.84. This pattern is not valid until the neckline is broken with a downtrend.
Price is still above the .236 of the trend up.
Several rising wedges well below price that are not valid as the bottom trendline is intact.
Price is above a prior rectangle and the top trendline is now support. The top line of the rectangle is also the neckline of the H&S pattern.
Targets in orange below the rectangle are break down targets from the rectangle.
No recommendation.
Earnings 1-26
EPS (FWD)
9.62
PE (FWD)
23.02
Div Rate (FWD)
$3.68
Yield (FWD)
1.66%
Short Interest
3.96%
Market Cap
$24.47B
$TSCO with a Neutral outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $TSCO after a Positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 80%.
RectanglePossible resistance trendline in the way but it only has 2 touches.
The more a trendline is touched, the stronger it becomes.
Tall rectangle binding price action.
Earnings are 10-20 BMO
Neutral pattern until broken.
No recommendation.
Technical Analysis: Four Basic Principles
Markets alternate between range expansion and range contraction. ...
Trend continuation is more likely than reversal. ...
Trends end in one of two ways: climax or rollover.
Momentum precedes price.
$TSCO with a Bearish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bearish outlook for $TSCO after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 80%.
TSCO - Broadening Formation CompletionTSCO is currently testing the upper line of this larger broadening wedge formation
This is looking to act as a point of resistance, supported by a bearish double top formation
TSCO - poised for breakup?After bouncing off it's low on 24 Feb, the stock has been consolidating sideways between 238 to 239 for the past 1 month. There was one attempt to breakup on 31 Mar which did not follow through. However it looks like it could attempt another breakup soon.
Long if it breaks above 239 again with tight initial stop loss slightly below last Friday's candle low at 230.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important!
TSCO Short Setup With Good Risk/RewardAfter making a lower low on the weekly, this is the logical place to short. Risk Reward to first PT is good.
TSCO broke out with volume!!* Strong earnings quarter over quarter
* Strong up trend
* Pays out dividends with a Payout ratio of 24.30% which means the company has a lot more room for growth
* Broke of a 4 month consolidation out with higher than average volume (19.09%)
* Making a new all-time-high
* Probable ROI of 17.19% if the trade plays out in our favor
Trade idea:
* $200.75 is expected to hold as support due to high volume breakout
* This may come back to retest $200.75 area so if you're looking for a discount that may be a great entry point
* Or you can buy in now and ride the trend if you can stomach a slight move down
A probable ROI of 17.19% would place the target at 240.03 area
Note:
* This is also a great long term hold as it pays out dividends
This Signal Has Tractor Supply Rising SoonBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on July 23, 2021 with a closing price of 187.7.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 189.79 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.587% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 17.077% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.821% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 15 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
ABC Bullishpossible stop under C or last pivot low
Pocket pivot (green triangle) not far under price.
ABC is corrective pattern, there is a bullish and a bearish version. The bullish pattern will start with a leg up (AB)and then has a pull back on the 2nd leg (BC). Wait for confirmation that C is actually C as if it passes u C by too much, you can be looking at a double bottom, triple bottom, inverses H&S or even a harmonic pattern.
Often the next, and last leg up, the CD leg, will be .38, .62 or .79 of the ab LEG. This can extend further to the 1.272 or 1.618 fib levels depending on the momentum of the security. If CD is 100 percent of AB, you may have an AB=CD pattern.
For an AB=CD or an ABC pattern you can use your magnet and move the AB leg placing it on top of C to get an idea where is may go.
Looks like earnings are over?
No recommendation.
TSCO (Tractor Supply Co) - Bullish Quarter aheadTractor Supply Company is the largest operator of rural lifestyle retail stores in America. Tractor Supply stores are focused on supplying the lifestyle needs of recreational farmers & ranchers & others who enjoy the rural lifestyle, as well as tradesmen and small businesses. Stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. The Company offers the following comprehensive selection of merchandise: (1) equine, livestock, pet and small animal products, including items necessary for their health, care, growth and containment; (2) hardware, truck, towing and tool products; (3) seasonal products, including heating, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts and toys; (4) work/recreational clothing and footwear; and (5) maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. Tractor Supply Company also owns and operates Petsense, a small-box pet specialty supply retailer focused on meeting the needs of pet owners, and offering a variety of pet products and services.
Analysis/Commentary
Strong EPS and Sales Growth Y-on-Y
Based on the study of the previous quarterly earnings reports and subsequent price moves:
- Expectation for the price to move to MID or HIGH point over the financial quarter
- Trailing stop-loss on price above MID point
- Heiken Ashi candles bullish with strong indicators on FAST & SLOW MACD's
- Potential for small pullback over the next few days based on 4hr time frame, but overall upward trend
GOOD LUCK.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
Rounded bottom, tall upper shadowNice pattern here which may break higher if it can hold over the marked fib.
