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Pay Attention: Looking At The US Dollar Into 2025If you have been watching over comments out of the FED, or the direction of the US dollar and its flow through the Markets, then this will act as a key guide for anticipating and understanding potential moves. For a considerable period, the DXY has floated within a reasonable range. The predictability this has brought has been coupled with the ebb and flow of 'Soft landing' predictions. Sentiment Case - Over the last 2 years, anything that comes across the wires to improve and make this view look more likely feeds weakness into the DXY, mostly because of the potential of lower rates in a quicker period. Recent jobs and retail sales data has affected this view and thus caused strength to the upside again). Price Action - Understanding that the upper and lower boundaries of this range are key indicators for short/long entries respectively is vital to success. These areas are obviously warranted by previous trading activity seen. The only thing that'd break this is increased risk on/off sentiment to take us higher or lower. Risk off would include a real worry amongst markets and USD inflows, the opposite would include risk on and further USD weakening. The best thing to do really is to not try to 'predict' when the range will break. If you'd traded within it for the last two years, your job would be plain, simple and easy. If news sentiment includes further data to suggest rates not falling as quickly as expected, then it's worth noting that these kinds of data (jobs/sales) will generally reflect well for the economic case and growth as they support it. You must be clear on sentiment drivers at all times and respect the levels present to the upside and downside. Within this, trade price action in reality with logic.
TVC:DXY
by WillSebastian
2
Usd potential turning downHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Watching for a potential toppish reversal on USD.But if it still holds and dont play out. next test level will be $104. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
TVC:DXY
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
What America Does with Its Money ? 🇺🇸 Decoding America's Spending: A Deep Dive into Government Finances This topic has been on the horizon for a while, and I think many new traders will be pleased to see it so LFG Just like a business, the government has its own financial records : 💰 Money comes in (primarily from taxes) 💸 Money goes out (to fund a variety of programs) With an expected gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $29 trillion in 2024, the US remains the world’s largest economy, surpassing China’s $18.5 trillion. However, the US government isn’t exactly profitable. In fact, it’s been consistently running a growing deficit, raising concerns about its long-term financial stability. As a general election approaches, it's more important than ever to understand how the US generates and spends its money. So, let’s dive into the details Here’s a quick overview: - Revenue: A deep dive into taxes - Spending: Powering the nation - Bottom Line: Operating costs & the deficit - National Debt: A mounting challenge - The Future: America's financial outlook 1. Revenue: A Deep Dive into Taxes The US government operates on an enormous scale, and like any large organization, it requires a consistent stream of income to stay functional. However, unlike businesses that sell products or services, the government generates revenue primarily through taxes and fees In fiscal year 2023, the federal government collected an astounding $4.4 trillion So, where does all of this money come from? Let’s take a closer look: 👥 Individual Income Taxes:Nearly 50% of the government’s total revenue comes from individuals. Every time you receive a paycheck, a portion is automatically sent to Uncle Sam. This also includes taxes on capital gains from investments. 🏦 Social Security and Medicare Taxes: About 36% of revenue is generated from these taxes, which support programs like Social Security and Medicare for retirees and older adults. It’s a system where current workers help fund benefits for those who have already retired. 🏢 Corporate Income Taxes:Around 10% of the total revenue comes from businesses, which contribute a portion of their profits to the federal government. This is reflected in the income tax provisions that companies report. 🧩 Other Revenue:The remaining ~4% is sourced from various channels such as excise taxes (extra charges on goods like alcohol and tobacco), estate taxes, customs duties, and even fees collected from national park visits. 2. Spending: Powering the Nation Now that we’ve seen how money flows into the US Treasury, it’s time to explore the exciting part figuring out how it’s spent. The US government faces the enormous responsibility of keeping the country functioning, covering everything from national defense to healthcare and infrastructure. And that demands a massive amount of spending In fiscal year 2023, the federal government's net cost was $7.9 trillion, which is almost as large as the combined GDP of Germany and Japan the world’s third and fourth largest economies! -Outlays vs. Net Cost:In FY23, total outlays (the actual cash spent) reached $6.1 trillion. Outlays refer to the cash disbursements, while the net cost also includes accrual-based accounting adjustments, such as changes in the future value of federal employee retirement benefits. Who’s Deciding Where the Money Goes So, how does the government determine how to allocate all this money? It’s a balancing act involving both the President and Congress: -The President’s Proposal: The President begins the process by proposing a budget, outlining spending priorities based on requests from federal agencies. Think of it as a wish list—with a lot of extra zeros. -House and Senate Role:Next, the House and Senate Budget Committees take over. They review the President’s proposal, make adjustments, and ultimately create the final spending bills. This process involves hearings, debates, and a fair amount of political negotiation. Types of Spending -Mandatory Spending:These are legally required expenses, like Social Security and Medicare, which make up a significant portion of the budget. These costs rise over time, particularly as the population ages -Discretionary Spending:This is the part of the budget where the President and Congress decide how much to allocate to areas like defense, education, and more. In FY23, discretionary spending accounted for roughly 28% of total outlays, and it involves a yearly struggle as various departments compete for funding. -Supplemental Spending: In cases of emergency, Congress can pass additional funding outside the normal budget cycle, as it did for the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Where the Money Goes Now, let's dive deeper into the specific areas where all that spending is directed: -🏥 Healthcare Heavyweight:The Department of Health and Human Services commands the largest portion of spending, making up 22% of the net cost. This reflects the huge outlays for healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. -👵 Social Safety Net:Programs like Veterans Affairs and the Social Security Administration also require significant funding, together accounting for 18% of the budget. This demonstrates the high priority placed on supporting veterans and retirees. -🫡 Defense and Security:The Department of Defense, tasked with ensuring national security, takes up 13% of government spending! -💸 The Interest Burden: A growing share of the budget is going toward paying interest on the national debt, consuming 9% of total spending. In FY23, government outlays represented 22% of the US economy (GDP). Over the past decade, this figure has remained slightly above 20%, excluding the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. 3. Bottom Line: Operating Cost & Deficit When government expenditures exceed its revenue, a budget deficit occurs In FY23, the U.S. government recorded a $1.7 trillion deficit (revenue minus outlays). Here’s a breakdown of two key financial terms: -Net Operating Cost:This includes all costs incurred by the government, even if the payments haven’t been made yet. In FY23, the net operating cost was $3.4 trillion -Budget Deficit:This is a narrower measure, focusing only on the cash difference between revenue and outlays. As mentioned, the FY23 budget deficit stood at $1.7 trillion Both of these financial measures reveal a government consistently spending beyond its means—a pattern that has persisted for decades. In fact, over the past 50 years, the U.S. federal budget has only seen a surplus four times, with the most recent one occurring in 2001. 4. National Debt: A Mounting Challenge So, how does the government continue operating despite being in the red? It borrows money, mainly by issuing Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities. This borrowing adds to the national debt, which has grown into a major concern for the country’s economic outlook. As of September 2024, the national debt has reached a staggering $36 trillion. To put that in perspective, it's as if every person in the US owes over $100,000! Every time the government spends more than it earns, the shortfall is added to the national debt, which, in turn, increases the interest payments that need to be made in the future. Why the Debt Keeps Growing ? Several factors contribute to the relentless increase of the national debt: -Persistent Deficits:For decades, the government has continuously spent more than it collects in revenue, leading to ongoing debt accumulation. -Wars and Economic Crises: Significant events such as wars (like those in Iraq and Afghanistan) and economic crises (including the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic) often necessitate large government expenditures, further escalating the debt. -Tax Cuts and Spending Increases: Policy decisions that either reduce government revenue (through tax cuts) or increase spending (by introducing new programs or expanding existing ones) also play a role in growing the debt. The national debt presents a complicated issue without straightforward solutions. It requires balancing essential funding for programs and services while ensuring the nation’s long-term financial health. 5. The Future: America’s Finances The road ahead is filled with challenges. The national debt continues to rise, with a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 100%, raising concerns about the nation's long-term economic stability and ability to fulfill financial commitments. According to the Department of the Treasury, the current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. Projections based on existing policies show a persistent gap between expected revenue and spending. Without substantial policy reforms, the national debt is likely to keep increasing. Several factors will influence the future of America’s finances: -Economic Growth: A strong economy generates higher tax revenues, making it easier to manage the debt. Conversely, slower growth could worsen the deficit and increase the debt burden. -Interest Rates:Rising interest rates would elevate the cost of servicing the national debt, redirecting funds from other vital programs. -Inflation: Excessive government debt can contribute to inflation, diminishing the purchasing power of individuals and businesses. -Political Polarization: The significant partisan divide in U.S. politics complicates consensus-building on fiscal policy and the implementation of long-term solutions to address the debt. -Demographic Shifts: An aging population increases pressure on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, leading to higher government spending and potentially widening the deficit. To tackle the challenges of growing debt and deficits, a combination of strategies is needed: -Controlling Spending:Identifying areas for budget cuts or finding more efficient methods to deliver government services. -Increasing Revenue:Exploring avenues for raising revenue through tax reforms or other means. -Fostering Economic Growth:Implementing policies that promote sustainable long-term economic growth and boost tax revenues. -Encouraging Bipartisan Cooperation:Seeking common ground across party lines to implement lasting fiscal reforms. The future of America’s finances remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: addressing the national debt and ensuring the nation’s long-term fiscal health will require tough decisions and a commitment to responsible financial management. What Can Be Done? It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the scale of these challenges, but meaningful change often starts with informed citizens. As we head into a new election cycle, understanding how the US government manages its finances is more crucial than ever. So, what do you think should be America’s financial priorities? Should policymakers concentrate on cutting spending, raising taxes, or fostering economic growth?
TVC:DXYEducation
by moonypto
2
DXY Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 103.533. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 103.703 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar index LongYesterday everything was unexpected to some extent we will expecting gold to be bearish to its new previous all time high but the asain session rocked and Gold has gained new highs Now taking turn towards Dollar index we are expecting a Bullish move in DXY to its global resistance price can Retest its previous Resistance became Support confluence is geopolitics and 50SMA and Resistance under american elections are also the big reason so we are bullish over dollar index and other co-relations will be bearish
TVC:DXYLong
by Wakeel_Saab
Trade Recap: AUDUSD - LONG, 17/10/2024AU Bias Analysis: Price mitigated a 1W FVG and was deeply discounted on the 1D timeframe and although still trading in a counter-trend on the 4H, we saw a displacement higher which formed a 4H bullish order block and established a 1H bullish range. Price protracted lower into EPD and the 1H FVG where I waited for entry confirmation and executed. Grade: Valid What I did well or could've done better: - Executed before market close out of a little bit of FOMO as I was waiting for a meeting to begin. I should've Waited for the 15M candle to close before executing the position. - Regardless of not having a strong conviction in the trade, I executed a position which fit the plan but wasn't picture perfect. - Managed my positions well and closed manually once phase 1 target was achieved.
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
DXY ON A BULLISH TRAJECTORY TARGET @ 103.830The dollar climbed to the strongest level in two months as former President Donald Trump defended proposals to raise tariffs on imports dramatically. The Dollar Index rose as much as 0.3% on Tuesday as the Republican candidate cited potential trade policies with economies including Mexico, Europe and China in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait. following those remarks this is my conclusion The current market is on a Bullish trajectory after bouncing from a strong support zone at around 101.996. If the price continues its upward momentum, it could target the unmitigated zone near 104.200 and possibly tp2 near 104.535. However, watch for any reversal signals at these resistance levels, as they could indicate a pullback. Key Levels Reversal at 101.996 marks the bottom where the price reversed and started to climb. Unmitigated Zone @ 101.870: This is a level where a previous imbalance or demand zone was left untested by the price, now acting as a potential support. tp1 @ 103.830: soon the zone will be mitigated Unmitigated Zone @ 104.200 is another untested supply zone where the price might face resistance. tp2 @ 104.535: The second take-profit level, this area is my future unmitigated zone a possible price target if the bullish momentum continues.
TVC:DXYLong
by que
We have a very strong dollar in the moment 4hrFrom my previous analysis we where at the breakout point from the downtrend. We knew that we might be looking at a positive dollar and that Is what we got at the moment. But the next coming elections will be crucial to the performance of the us dollar. As the investors ruled out a hefty interest rate cut from the reserve bank, a potential rise in the dollar from a victory by the former President Donald Trump. Trump plans to implement tax cuts, looser financial regulations, and higher tariffs is viewed as positive for the dollar. Higher tariffs, for instance, would have a negative implications for growth in Asian and European exporters that could force their central banks lower their interest rates, undermining their currencies, while lifting the dollar.
TVC:DXYLong
by AnalysisExpert