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Trump Trade Thoughts - USD at Range ResistanceWhere do I start? Irrespective of your opinions regarding Donald Trump, his recent election win and resounding defeat for the Democrats will unquestionably go down in history. Not only did the Republicans bag a clean sweep of all seven swing states, they secured a majority in Congress – winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In political parlance, this is a ‘trifecta’. While Trump is busy allocating Cabinet and Administrative positions, what does this mean for traders? Two words: ‘Trump Trade’ US stock markets outperformed in the lead-up to and following the election results, and key indices recently ventured to record highs. Impressively, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are up 25% year to date. The post-election rally has benefited several stocks, but one stands out: Tesla (TSLA), which surpassed US$1 trillion in market value and is up 25% year to date. Additionally, Trump appointed Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head up the newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields have also been doing well pre- and post-election, with the former up 5% year to date. Despite the spirited advance, the Research Team did a superb job of highlighting a potential technical headwind in the shape of long-term range resistance around the 107.19 region on the US Dollar Index. While many factors govern the USD’s trend, this resistance marks a critical juncture for the greenback and could prompt profit-taking. However, most traders will likely look for a breakout to the upside here, effectively opening the door for breakout plays: a continuation of current momentum with limited nearby resistance seen overhead. It would also be remiss of me not to reference Bitcoin (BTC) touching record highs just south of US$95k versus the USD; while I did not think we’d see US$100k quite so soon, this milestone may be reached before the year-end. This perspective is primarily influenced by the incoming Administration's anticipated ‘crypto-friendly’ approach, which is expected to provide regulatory clarity and flexibility. Although previously sceptical of the cryptocurrency market, one of Trump’s pledges involves making the US, and I quote, ‘the crypto capital of the planet’. Coupled with his campaign receiving donations in Digital Currencies and the recent launch of World Liberty Financial, a family business that is designed as a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform where users can invest in Cryptocurrencies, this marks quite a U-turn from his first term as president. The US Federal Reserve continues to claim some of the limelight. A cooling labour market, resilient growth and robust spending underscore the possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, aligning with market pricing (currently assigning an 80% probability of a cut). However, while further easing could be seen next month, with the Trump era just around the corner and inflation remaining sticky, 2025 is shaping up to be a different story. For now, though, the Trump Trade is alive and kicking. This suggests that investors will keep a close eye on US stock markets, the USD, Treasury yields, and Crypto assets. Prepared and written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago. Technical theme: - The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion. - If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43. - On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
DXY reached the critical resistance zone. H4 15.11.2024 DXY reached the critical resistance zone 📉 Honestly, I didn't think they would push the dollar index to the final zone near 107 without a pullback, but they still did. Now they gave a clear reaction downwards and it is very possible that the correction has started. Of course, we cannot deny the possibility of retesting the highs and then continuing the fall, but in general, the first signs of reversal and culmination have already appeared. It is very desirable to close the week below 106.30 and then the idea of a false breakdown of the 2-year highs will be confirmed. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure. Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed. You can DM us for information on any other coin. @Peter_CSAdmin
TVC:DXY
by CryptoSanders9563
Possible USD Strength Continuation?Here's the revised trading plan with the requested adjustments: 1 . Baseline Scenario : - Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Slightly Dovish . The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing. While inflation remains somewhat elevated, the Fed is balancing its dual mandate of supporting employment and controlling inflation. Current market expectations indicate a 59% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the December meeting, down from 82.5%. - Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bullish . The short-term sentiment on the USD is bullish, driven by Fed Chair Powell's recent comments on the strong economy and solid job market, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations: - Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.5%) - Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.4%) 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Positive Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures exceed expectations, this will likely reinforce the bullish sentiment on the USD. Consider increasing long positions in USD pairs, particularly against currencies with dovish central banks. Additionally, look for opportunities in sectors that benefit from strong consumer spending, such as retail and consumer discretionary stocks. - Negative Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures come in below expectations, the market reaction is expected to be muted given the current sentiment. Maintain existing positions but be prepared to adjust if subsequent data or Fed communications indicate a shift in the economic outlook. Monitor for any signs of weakening consumer confidence or spending that could impact broader market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by Midas_Macro
Dollar's Rise, Gold's Demise◉ Abstract The US Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices have a historically inverse correlation, with a stronger dollar typically reducing gold demand. Key drivers of this relationship include inflation, geopolitical tensions, and interest rates. With a 73-95% negative correlation observed over time, investors should note the current market outlook: the DXY is poised to break out above 107, potentially surging to 114, while gold prices may drop 5% to 2,400 and then 2,300. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for making informed investment decisions and capitalizing on potential trading opportunities. ◉ Introduction The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and gold prices is significant and typically characterized by an inverse correlation. Understanding this relationship is crucial for investors and traders in the gold market. ◉ U.S. Dollar Index Overview The U.S. Dollar Index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. It serves as an indicator of the dollar's strength or weakness in global markets. When the index rises, it indicates that the dollar is gaining value relative to these currencies, while a decline suggests a weakening dollar. ◉ Inverse Relationship with Gold Prices Gold is priced in U.S. dollars on international markets, which directly influences its price based on fluctuations in the dollar's value: ● Strengthening Dollar: When the DXY index increases, it generally leads to a decrease in gold prices. This occurs because a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby reducing demand. ● Weakening Dollar: Conversely, when the DXY index falls, gold prices tend to rise. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign investors, increasing its demand and driving up prices. Research indicates that this inverse relationship has been consistent over time, particularly in long-term trends. For instance, historical data shows that gold prices often rise when the dollar depreciates, reflecting a negative correlation of approximately 73% to 95% over various time intervals. ◉ Short-Term Deviations While the long-term trend supports this inverse relationship, short-term anomalies can occur under specific market conditions. For example, during periods of extreme volatility or economic uncertainty, gold and the dollar may exhibit a positive correlation temporarily as both assets are sought after as safe havens. This behaviour can confuse investors who expect the typical inverse relationship to hold. ◉ Additional Influencing Factors Several other factors also affect gold prices beyond the dollar's strength: ● Inflation: Rising inflation often leads investors to flock to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. ➖ E.g. In 2022, as inflation rates surged to 9.1%, demand for gold increased by 12% year-over-year, pushing prices higher. Historical data shows that during periods of high inflation from 1974 to 2008, gold prices rose by an average of 14.9% annually. ● Geopolitical Events: Uncertainty from geopolitical tensions can drive demand for gold regardless of dollar fluctuations. ➖ E.g. In late 2023, escalating conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war contributed to a surge in gold prices, with reports indicating increases of over 3% in a week due to these tensions ● Interest Rates: When the Fed raises interest rates, it typically strengthens the dollar as higher yields attract foreign capital. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand. ➖ E.g. During the Federal Reserve's rate hikes from March 2022 to early 2023, many investors moved away from gold as they sought higher returns from bonds and other fixed-income securities. This shift contributed to downward pressure on gold prices during that period. ◉ Technical Standings ● U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY The US Dollar Index has been stuck in neutral for two years. But if it clears the 107 hurdle, get ready for a surge to 114. ● Gold Spot/USD OANDA:XAUUSD ➖ Gold prices skyrocketed to 2,790, then plunged. Expect a 5% drop to 2,400. If that support cracks, 2,300 is the next safety net.
TVC:DXYEducation
by NaranjCapital
Is the Trump Trade Fading? The sugar high from Trump’s victory may be wearing off in a few areas. Tesla, once a post-election favorite after Elon Musk’s support of Trump’s campaign, has now reversed direction. Reports suggest that Republicans will end the $7,500 EV tax credit—a move that’s sent Rivian tumbling 9%, while Tesla is down nearly 4%. Shares of Trump Media & Technology slid 8% today. But being a meme stock, analysis here won't tell us much. In a notable signal, the CFO and two other insiders sold over $16 million of stock in the week following the election. Yet, the U.S. dollar remains resilient, possibly buoyed by the Cabinet picks coming out of the Trump administration. Marco Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State suggests a tough stance on China. Known for his anti-communist positions and support for Hong Kong’s democracy movement, Rubio has advocated for tighter export controls on U.S. technology and visa sanctions against Chinese officials, hinting at a policy that may go well beyond tariffs.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY: Highly overbought on 1D. Excellent short.The U.S. Dollar Index has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.223, MACD = 0.950, ADX = 43.535) as the current weekly candle is only a few clicks away from the top of the 2 year consolidation Rectangle pattern. Even the 1W RSI (67.108) is about to turn overbought but has already reached the top of the 1 year R1 Zone. All the above create the conditions for the perfect long term short. Our target is the 1W MA200 (TP = 101.750), which supported the price during the bearish wave of July-August. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYShort
by InvestingScope
1
Dollar and Trump's WinHi, looking for dollar progression in coming years most are saying that election result gives dollar a push, for me it's following the pattern Dollar/dxy is following 2 patterns/ channels one is falling one and other is rising one , so 1st question is whether it choose the continuation of the downward channel or break it and choose to continue with the rising channel , patterns are showing some important level for the coming years in case dollar/dxy continue to follow the patterns , well it depends on the market will post sub-analysis in the comment section with further deep analysis shortly
TVC:DXY
by omvats1
This is the only Dollar chart you’ll need for 2025The current strong recovery of the US dollar is largely Trump-related, as his policies suggest that the economy could expand, potentially leading to higher inflation and rates to counteract it. It’s important to recognize that this move since the end of October is a type of euphoria or optimism surrounding Trump. However, once Trump actually takes office, we may see new flows and trend directions emerge. In Trump’s previous term, the dollar turned lower quite aggressively, topping in December 2016/ January 2017. I’m wondering if we could see a similar price action this time. In Elliott wave terms, we should definitely be aware of a potential reversal. Looking at the current chart, we see five waves down followed by an ABC recovery—the most basic and clear Elliott wave structure. The five-wave decline signals a bearish trend starting in 2022/23, and the current pause could set up for another drop in the dollar. Always when you track a correction or a counter-trend move, watch for a three-wave pattern before concluding that the dollar has reached a resistance point. Currently, wave C is still ongoing, possibly in its late stages, though it hasn’t yet reached the 108 level, which is likely an important reversal area. This zone aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a key for the final stages of corrective retracement. To me, this suggests that the dollar could potentially sell off next year. Now, you may be wondering what this means for other markets. It depends on the catalyst behind the dollar’s turn. If a recession triggers it, stocks might also face downside pressure. Alternatively, if the dollar weakens due to extreme inflows into other assets, particularly stocks, then equities could continue pushing higher. A lot of of money is still on the sideline, and is likely waiting for new opportunities, and if stocks will keep pushing up, funds could shift from the dollar to stocks, potentially creating a blow-off top. This could mean that 2025 might be an “interesting” year for stocks, with potential for a major reversal. Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast