BTCUSD can go both ways!!!Full BTC/USD 4H Analysis with Projections
Key Ichimoku Observations:
1. Tenkan-sen (Blue Line): Flat, indicating short-term indecision.
2. Kijun-sen (Red Line): Also flat, confirming a sideways market.
3. Senkou Span A & B (Kumo/Cloud):
The Kumo is thin and slightly bullish (green), suggesting indecision but still supporting a bullish bias.
Price remains above the Kumo, maintaining an overall bullish structure.
4. Chikou Span (Green Line): Positioned above price from 26 periods ago, confirming bullish momentum.
However, it is approaching historical price clusters that may cause resistance.
Wave Theory Analysis (N-Wave and P-Wave):
An N-Wave (bullish impulsive move) occurred earlier, followed by a period of consolidation.
Currently, a P-Wave (triangle formation) is evident, with price contracting between 100,000 (support) and 102,000 (resistance):
Breakout above 102,000 signals trend continuation.
Breakdown below 100,000 signals bearish correction.
Time Theory (Kihon-Suchi):
Ichimoku Time Theory suggests cycles of 9, 17, 26 periods where price movements, reversals, or consolidations occur. Using these time projections:
1. We are at the Decision Zone: The price is consolidating, and a breakout or breakdown is expected within 4-8 candles (16-32 hours).
2. After the breakout/breakdown, the following time projections apply:
9 candles (36 hours): For 1st targets.
17 candles (68 hours): For extended targets.
Trade Setup with Projections:
Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability):
Trigger: Breakout and close above 102,000.
Confirmation:
Price holds above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.
Chikou Span remains free of resistance.
Targets and Projections:
1. 1st Target: 104,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakout.
2. 2nd Target: 106,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakout.
Stop Loss: Place below 100,000 (psychological support and Kijun level).
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown and close below 100,000.
Confirmation:
Chikou Span drops below the price structure.
Price enters and closes below the Kumo.
Targets and Projections:
1. 1st Target: 98,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakdown.
2. 2nd Target: 96,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakdown.
Stop Loss: Place above 102,000 (resistance and previous highs).
Time Cycle Summary Table:
Conclusion:
Current Bias: Bullish as long as price remains above the Kumo and 100,000.
Next Action: Monitor price behavior near 102,000 (resistance) and 100,000 (support).
Time Projection for Breakout or Breakdown: Next 16-32 hours (4-8 candles).
This combined approach using Ichimoku Wave Theory, Time Theory, and price action provides a clear trade plan for BTC/USD.
