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LONG: $BTC Laser focused on 138K (when you see it)Bitcoin is riding a steady upward-sloping channel, keeping the bulls in control. The Golden Spiral—a mystical force of nature—marks the point where momentum exploded, and it hints that this rally might be far from over. Volume: Steady, but the calm before the storm? A breakout could ignite fireworks. "Trust me bro" outlook: A clean breakout above the channel could push BTC toward $120K–$140K, as the beyond-spacetime symmetries remain undeniable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sa7en
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
#BITCOIN $BTC Key points this week!Here are the key points driving Bitcoin this week: New All-Time Highs: Bitcoin has surged to new all-time highs, breaking above $105,000, which indicates strong bullish momentum. This surge is partly attributed to the market's response to the anticipation of a pro-crypto administration under President-elect Donald Trump. Potential Bitcoin Reserve Asset Status: There's buzz around the possibility that the Trump administration might designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset, which could further solidify its value and acceptance. This news has been a significant driver for Bitcoin's price increase. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market sentiment is being influenced by expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which generally favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates can lead to increased investment in cryptocurrencies as investors seek higher returns. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis: Bitcoin's market is showing signs of stability with a reduced Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), suggesting that future uncertainties might be less of a concern, leading to a potentially calmer market environment. Technical analysis also indicates positive trends, with Bitcoin closing the week inside key Gann arcs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if these levels are broken. Economic Events: Key U.S. economic events this week, including PMI, Fed rates, GDP, and inflation data, are expected to influence Bitcoin's volatility and investor sentiment. These events could either reinforce the bullish trend or introduce some corrections depending on the outcomes. ETF Inflows and Whale Activity: Positive ETF inflows and an increase in whale buys are contributing to the bullish sentiment. There's no significant sell pressure around the $100,000 mark, supporting the upward movement in price. These points collectively suggest a week where Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, driven by both macroeconomic policies and market dynamics. However, the crypto market is notoriously volatile, and these factors could also lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BaseLineTraders
BTC SELL SETUP may not be moving as expected today due to several factors: 1. Low Volatility: Mondays, particularly the first trading day of the week, often experience low volatility as traders and investors analyze the previous week's market events and wait for significant catalysts. 2. Lack of Fundamental Triggers: If there are no major economic data releases or geopolitical events scheduled for today, the market could remain range-bound. 3. Holiday Effect: Sometimes, certain global markets might be partially closed or have reduced participation, especially if a holiday overlaps with the start of the trading week. 4. Technical Adjustments: Market participants might be waiting for key levels to be tested before committing to new positions, resulting in sideways movement.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by SadarExplore
RED LINE updateChart is with 4 hour candles. So far 2 full candle bodies have closed above the red line. If the red line will act as support then it's going to go off. I'm expecting a pullback from this level but it could be very explosive in either direction. I'm expecting the bull market to play out on a longer time frame... like the next 8-12 months. So it would be expected to have some pullback to make a much larger move later in the cycle. That being said I can't really ignore this trading level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Narsty_Boy
Bitcoin: Bitcoin is still above 100,000 dollars!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone(ATH) . After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 92 thousand dollars. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw capital inflows on every single day, recording a total of $2.2 billion in investments.Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs continued their strong performance from the previous two weeks, accumulating approximately $1 billion in inflows last week, which is a significant amount. Meanwhile, Microsoft shareholders voted against the proposal to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet during its annual meeting on December 10. The resolution was introduced by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a free-market think tank based in Washington, D.C., which framed the proposal as a way to provide value to shareholders through profit diversification. However, the shareholders ultimately rejected it. Daniel Batten, an environmentalist and Bitcoin advocate, claimed that Alex de Vries’ “singular opinion” in 2018, as the founder of Digiconomist, was the foundation for all flawed studies on Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Batten argued that this misinformation has led to widespread misunderstandings among the public, investors, and policymakers, causing Bitcoin to be mistakenly seen as an environmental threat. However, newer studies suggest that many of these claims are incorrect, and Bitcoin could even have environmental benefits. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s energy consumption is not tied to the number of transactions and that the network can exponentially increase transaction volumes without raising emissions. Robert Kiyosaki, a Bitcoin investor, entrepreneur, and author of the bestselling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has once again predicted an imminent major crash and urged his followers to buy Bitcoin before it happens. In his recent tweet, Kiyosaki specifically addressed the Baby Boomer generation, to which he belongs, highlighting that Bitcoin is a new and confusing asset for many in that demographic. In his tweet, Kiyosaki wrote, “The biggest crash in history is coming. Please act early and get rich.” This warning came as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. Earlier this year, Kiyosaki predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025 and as much as $1 million by 2030, citing AI-based forecasts for his projections. The number of daily active crypto users has reached an all-time high of 18.7 million, a sharp increase from just 7.7 million at the beginning of 2024. A group of Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), has suggested that Amazon invest at least 5% of its assets in Bitcoin. They argue that Bitcoin has outperformed most asset classes, including corporate bonds. Notably, MicroStrategy, a company that has integrated Bitcoin into its treasury management, has seen its stock outperform Amazon by a significant 537% over the past year. Meanwhile, BlackRock recently purchased an additional 3,910 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to approximately 535,000 Bitcoins, valued at $53 billion. As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock has shifted its focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum while delaying the launch of any new altcoin-based ETFs. The head of BlackRock’s ETF division stated that the company now aims to expand its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, given their stellar performance so far. Additionally, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, hinted at another Bitcoin purchase in a recent tweet. He wrote, “Does saylortracker miss a green dot?” This cryptic message appears to reference yet another significant Bitcoin acquisition by Saylor. Similar messages from him in the past have often preceded announcements of large Bitcoin purchases. For instance, Saylor has previously teased major Bitcoin buys through similar tweets, which were later confirmed. Nasdaq also announced that the largest Bitcoin-holding company will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index starting December 23.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system. The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action. Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book. However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside. It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Macrobriefing
3
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again. Quote from last week: comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k. comment : I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k. current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. key levels: 90000 - 110000 bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk. Invalidation is above 110000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. → Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook. short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Nothing
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin Breaks Through 102k Liquidity Zone, Girls Late to PartyBitcoin broke through the 102k liquidity zone acting as resistance for the past week. But it did so with low volume signaling some bearish divergence. Key Considerations: 1. Weak Commitment: Lower volume suggests that there may not be enough buyer commitment to sustain the breakout. Think of it like showing up to a party with a single girl and as soon as she realizes she's being ogled by a room full of broke bulls, she's gonna be the first one out of the door. 2. Potential Fakeout: A breakout with low volume increases the likelihood of a false breakout, where the price could fall back below the liquidity zone. 3. Lack of Conviction: The price holding above the liquidity zone on lower volume might indicate hesitation. What to Watch For: Price Action on Retest: If the price retests the liquidity zone and holds (even with moderate volume), it may still confirm support, but the next move up might be slower or weaker. This is bullish. Volume Spike: Look for a volume increase in subsequent candles. If volume starts to pick up, it can validate the breakout. A couple more girls arrive to the party just before everyone leaves. Divergences: Check for divergences in momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, which could signal a potential reversal. We have has a moderate amount at time of posting. How to Approach It: Cautious Optimism: Treat the breakout as tentatively bullish but remain cautious until stronger confirmation (e.g., a second retest or a breakout above the next resistance level with higher volume). Holden swears more girls are on the way
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by StonkMarketParty
2
BTC bulltrap incAs I continue to DCA BTC like I always do I am attempting to locate the next capitulatory zone. I think max pain would be to hit the fib extension around 110-111k and then have a rather quick dump to 87-91k. This would allow large institutions to get in below 100k one last time right around Christmas and start their 2025 positions. There is no guarantee this happens but this seems like a possible path to me. My plan: I will be selling all of my CLSK on this pump, I have been looking to get rid of miners for a while, they are trash tier investments. Since large investors can just buy the ETF why buy miners that dilute shares? I will be stopping adding alts after today until I see which direction we are headed.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Apollo_21mil
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge Formation Signals PotenTechnical Analysis 1. Price Pattern The chart shows a Rising Wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish continuation or reversal pattern. This formation is characterized by price movement within converging trendlines, indicating weakening upward momentum. In this context, the Rising Wedge suggests a potential downside breakout if the price fails to break above the upper resistance. 2. Key Levels Major Resistance: $103,620, a critical level that must be broken with significant volume to confirm a bullish continuation. Psychological Support: $100,000, which acts as a key holding level in the event of a downside breakout Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 23.6% at $94,930, serving as the first support target after a breakdown. 38.2% at $89,554, which may act as a stronger support if selling pressure increases. 3. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI is at 65.11, nearing the overbought zone. This suggests a potential weakening of bullish momentum and increases the likelihood of a correction. 4. Volume and Confirmation No clear signs of significant breakout volume are present, favoring the likelihood of a bearish scenario. Forecast 1. Bearish Scenario (Dominant): If the price fails to break above the $103,620 resistance and breaches the lower support of the Rising Wedge, it could initially drop to the $100,000 level. Continued selling pressure may drive the price further down to the Fibonacci 23.6% level at $94,930. In a more extended decline, the Fibonacci 38.2% level at $89,554 becomes the next target. 2. Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If the price breaks above $103,620 with strong volume, it could signal a bullish continuation, with the first target near $107,000. In this scenario, a tight stop-loss is essential to protect against potential false breakouts. Trading Recommendations Confirm Breakout Direction: Wait for a confirmed breakout (up or down) before taking a position. Short Position Strategy: If the price breaks below the Rising Wedge support, consider a short position targeting $94,930, while setting a stop-loss above $103,620. Long Position Strategy: If the price breaks above $103,620 with strong volume, consider a long position targeting $107,000, with a stop-loss below the breakout point. Risk Management: Employ strict stop-loss levels at critical areas to minimize potential losses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sai_Kuze
Bitcoin Eyes $107K: Key Levels to WatchBitcoin is showing bullish momentum, breaking through the key intraday resistance around $102,000. However, given the weekend, I am keeping my expectations realistic. 1. Ideally, I’d like to see either (A) a quick dip below $101,662 followed by a prompt recovery, or (B) sustained price action above $101,662. Both scenarios would significantly increase the likelihood of a bullish move toward the critical resistance at $107,000 in the coming days (as per the green projections). 2. Conversely, a drop below $98,984 could lead to choppy price action, a considerable slowdown in momentum, and a high probability of retesting the $94,650 level.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Trade-Lean