BEARUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin: Signs Of A Cycle High.Bitcoin could be developing a Wave 5 of a broader 5th wave which would complete an even larger Wave 3 (see monthly chart). IF this is confirms, it implies that a much larger corrective cycle (Wave IV) has a greater chance of unfolding. This corrective cycle can see price retest 70K and STILL BE WITHIN a bullish configuration. Such a move can take 6 months to a year to play out. While wave counts do not promise a high degree of accuracy, they can be helpful to estimate the amount of RISK in the future. Based on this wave count, I can at least conclude that current levels are EXTREMELY unattractive when it comes to putting new money to work in terms of investing.
Some signs that point to a potential cycle peak: possible double top formation near the 100K area. A large outside bar formation (see arrow). Countless video titles on Youtube that push becoming a "millionaire" (this is a sign of extreme sentiment). Scammers on the rise literally pumping and dumping meme coins on Youtube streams. Michael Saylor's face on countless thumbnails. While many of these signs are not technical, they illustrate the sentiment of the retail investor and it is usually at these times when the market is MOST vulnerable to turning. This process is NOTHING new, but it can be observed in new ways thanks to the social internet.
The outside bar that went from the all time high of 104K back to 91K (most of that move occurred within an hour), is a sign that much of this move is on nothing but hot air in my opinion. Yes it recovered, but all it takes is some unexpected catalyst to see the move stick the next time. While the trend has yet to change, this activity highlights the high degree of risk that is present at current levels. While there is never a bad time to invest, price levels are not created equal when it comes to RISK.
I will ALWAYS say this at highs: these are prices to reduce risk, take some profits, or invest SMALL. Price action at current levels is ideal for short term strategies like swing trades, day trades, etc. The price area to be waiting for when it comes to putting larger amounts of new money to work is between the 80K to 70K area which is where the cycle low can establish itself while still maintaining a bullish outlook. IF 70K is compromised (it can happen) that would negate the broader bullish structure and expectations should be adjusted at that time. This is NOT a forecast, just a potential scenario to be prepared for.
There is no way to forecast the future with any degree of accuracy. All it takes is an unexpected catalyst and everything changes overnight. Markets are highly random, so the ONLY factor we can control is the RISK we take. Imagine buying this on the 100K breakout, only to see a test of 90K area to follow. Why wasn't ANYONE forecasting that little move? Learn to measure and respect risk because "reward" is nothing more than a byproduct of good risk management.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC What a crazy November...huhThis is a monthly chart. Its unlike any other you will study so the sooner you realize. the better. It was made to replace the mighty $USD. Doing this means "rinsing" and "recycling" those dollars. Up and down we go, we shall only stop when the USD taps out. No telling how high but these monthly wick lows are historically revisited. Like this area for a massive head fake. Crushing FUD news maybe. Not a prediction @AI. Nation states are buying NOW! Do they normally worry with individuals when THEY desire something. Brace : )
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market finally did it and had a casual 11% pullback on Thursday. Talk about store of value. That’s crazy people talk who are in denial that this is not a textbook ponzi. Market might retest 104k or not, once we drop below 90k this rally is likely over and we will be on our way down. This is not the breakout to 200k. If you believe that, you are in peak greed-land in your head. I can see this moving somewhat more sideways but with very limited upside potential. Yearly close below 90000 is my rough guess for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k.
comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but thats about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Decent pullback on Thursday. The next fast drop below 90000 could lead to much lower prices but it’s speculation as of now. Bears first target is to prevent the market from a new ath next week and then a daily close below the 20ema. After that, we can look for lower targets.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 90-100k
→ Last Sunday we traded around 97327 and now we are at 100k. Big up and somewhat big down last week, where market basically went nowhere.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed big bull trend line and added the current channel.
"The ForexX Blueprint"The ForexX Declaration: A Masterpiece of Precision
Ladies and gentlemen of the trading realm of TradingView, heed this proclamation! I have employed a strategy so precise, so calculated, that it bridges the chasm between the art and science of trading. With a short and a long position crafted to perfection, I have confirmed the next majestic move upward using the formidable power of ATR calculations.
The Unstoppable ATR Shark Fins
My ATR shark fins have signaled the upward motion, though let it be known—such a tool should never stand alone. Its strength lies in the harmony of its alignment with greater forces, and align it has, with a Fibonacci masterpiece.
The Fibonacci Confluence
The divine Fibonacci has spoken, aligning perfectly with my auto Fibonacci tool. This sacred alignment led to the derivation of Targets 1 and 2, calculations rooted in the psychology of Fibonacci’s golden proportions. But wait—Target 3 ascends beyond mere theory, sculpted through my meticulous ATR adjustments to ensure accuracy that rivals the stars.
The Pending Bull Run Dates
The Bull Run dates are brewing in my royal chambers, soon to be printed and unveiled to the kingdom of TradingView. This phenomenon shall unfold in unpredictable ways: bulls uniting, converging forces, and the ultimate times deciding their activation. Yet, as always, prepare for the occasional delay, for even the finest plans must bow to the rhythm of the market.
The smaller timeframes have signaled and confirmed the start of bull runs.
The Blue Wave: A Contraction Masterpiece
Behold the Blue Wave—a guidance system based on smart money movements, perfectly aligned with my contraction block. These contractions, cunningly designed by the smart money elite, are traps to mislead traders toward the true value line. They are the sirens of the market, whispering illusions to the unprepared.
The ForexX Confidence
Many may argue that Bitcoin stands overbought, but I, with confidence forged through wisdom and calculations, override such notions without hesitation. This is not mere speculation—it is the calculated decree of a trading sovereign.
Prepare yourselves, for what lies ahead is not just a trade, but a movement—a triumph written in the stars and executed with royal precision. Long live the Bull Run! 🏆📈
Bitcoin is not looking that well... check out this last candlesBitcoin has indeed broken out of the ascending wedge as we had analyzed; however, I’m quite concerned about the very prominent indecision candle that formed during the breakout. This has me a bit worried.
If we look at the last two days, they’ve also been indecisive candles. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a Bitcoin correction is imminent, but if the price starts losing momentum after several days of sideways movement with wick-heavy candles, it doesn’t paint a very positive picture for the days ahead.
Anything can happen—Bitcoin’s volatility is very high, and the crypto market is currently very bullish. For now, it’s just a matter of waiting to see Bitcoin’s next move and how it reacts.
Best regards!
BTCUSD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS (( NEOWAVE ))The trend seems to have ended in this timeframe /
Currently, the trend seems to be continuing. I do not recommend trading until the trend ends in this timeframe and lower targets
Make sure to involve less than 2-3% of your total capital and adhere to money management principles
This is just a suggestion for consideration
BTC update BTC update here we see BTC showing liquidity takes based on my personal opinion here right. But Both Daily and 4hr have shown reactions and showing specific price points to go to. My white lines are Daily Liquidity and 4hr are marked with yellow lines. Liquidity (LQ). here I observed last eek that Bitcoin did take both Buyside and Selllside Liquidiy withing the same week. and it just showed a 4hr Buyside Lq take showing that its getting closer to time to sell from this price or in general anywhere from here to 104k it can consider a sell from. Do not risk money you can't afford to lose and this is all strictly a hypothesis and opinions coming together to form an analysis. Its only been 30 days and we've seen history!
When To Take Bitcoin Profits, Santa Rally?Many Crypto Traders/Investors like to believe in a potential 'Santa Rally'. Essentially where investors pile money into such assets (BTC) and the price raises with demand.
Really, if you are going to be buying BTC at such highs you are not really Trading the asset, you are 'believing' in it's potential. Any holding of anything at all time highs is not going to be done on a 'good deal' basis, as one would not normally be buying highs.
It's important to remember if you are still holding BTC now at highs, you are still effectively buying highs. You are not actively entering but you are holding long positions.
Typically, if you want to be consistent long term and not face massive swings in P/L, you should take gains where you have gains. If something starts to stall, take it.
You then have the chance to re-buy later on. Holding anything for longer and longer pays out more - But equally its of more risk (you do not know when it will turn as you have no resistance reference points).
Investor long zones on wild dips are far more preferred. This is not to say it will not rally again beyond current highs - It is to say you do not know exactly how far or when it will stop.
$BTC #Bitcoin Just Gonna Leave This Here (Hmmmm..Maybe?) 😝This is just adding onto my logarithmic regression-inversion theory and how I personally believe the $BTC price movements may specifically play out. The general theory is that the logarithmic regression of $BTC will invert at a certain point in the next 1-3 years, changing the price suppression $BTC has had for its whole life into exponential support. I personally believe this is very possible, with exponential adoption of #Bitcoin for things like sovereign wealth funds, countries' legal tender and possibly even a world reserve asset. If those things (plus other possible variables) occur then this is how I see that possibly playing out.
Here is a detailed explanation of what I personally believe is happening/going to happen here.
Phase 1:
There would be a breakdown of price like we have now (possibly) completed. This would be in order to accomplish a few things for global institutions. Some of those things are:
1) Get Bitcoin out of the hands of the "common man". It would not be possible to acquire the amount of $BTC needed with so many people holding.
2) Cause liquidity issues for exchanges, making it more difficult for just anyone to purchase. (We have already seen this. ex: Voyager, Celsius, etc.)
3)Allow large accounts to be created at more feasible prices, while also providing a good (high) enough entry price to sustain value for the overall asset in the eyes of the public. (To keep people from losing interest)
There are obviously more reasons, but that's another post.
Phase 2:
A relief rally back up to the median range. This will obviously be a very volatile range, as 50% of investors sell (expecting a sharp move downward) and others (possibly the central financial institutions and/or sovereign wealth funds, who will not initially disclose their acquisitions) accumulating within this range.
Because of this volatility, the likely range it will be in, the immediate supports/resistances, and the typical movement of the $BTC price; My current prediction is that $BTC will move upward, after flipping the top of the recent range into support, and break above the main down-trend of a massive flag that $BTC has been forming for over a year. Then after a retest of that upper trend, price will attempt to break the new-found resistance as traders long from that trend line. Believing that this is the last upward movement, traders will then short the resistance level, and other holders may sell out of fear (or just simply because they will be at a break-even price, since a lot of volume was transacted in that range). This range will then prove to be the median range, previously mentioned. $BTC will then make a lower low, again at the upper trend of the flag. This will seem like a "bear-signal" but will actually be a second confirmation of support off of the upper-resistance trend of the flag, which will "fake-out" traders, causing a short squeeze. Then more traders will continue to short as others switch to a long stance. All of these movements will print an inverse-head-and-shoulders, the break-out of which will give $BTC price the momentum needed to make it back up to the $60K-$70K range.
Phase 3:
After making it back to the "all-time-high" range, there will undoubtedly be heavy volatility, as some call for a triple-top and others "FOMO" into #Bitcoin. This volatility, bouncing between the upper regression curve and the inversion curve, will begin to print a "rising-wedge" pattern. The break-out of this wedge will be the ultimate inversion of regression into exponential growth.
This is all pure speculation, however it is based on both, strong fundamental data as well as technical data. I personally believe in this theory, and it could also play out in other ways, but this scenario seems to make the most sense to me at the moment.
**This is my own opinion based on data observed. This is not financial advice.**
BTC/USD Week Chart Retrace to $70,026In this idea I illustrate how a set of ascending scallops move in regards to each other. Highlighted in the chart is the first scallop that took us to justs above 100k. I know everyone is bullish and there will be dissenting views, but hear me out. The bull run is not over this is just natural movement. The first scallop almost always retraces to the left top of the hook to form the rounded bottom of the second. This scallop retraces the farthest of any in the set. I hope this helps and it looks like we will resume upwards movement in January. Blessings to you guys and long live bitcoin.
ND
8/12/24 Market overview for the week on XAUUSD, AUDUSD, BTCUSDBased on price action, XAUUSD, AUDUSD, and BTCUSD look quite interesting. Thank you for watching and supporting us.
For more content, please BOOST, COMMENT & SHARE.
You are loved and appreciated, see you at the next one!
Drop pairs in the comment section for the next overview.
The Final Stretch for BTC: A Macro ViewWe are entering the final stretch of the BTC bull market. Compared to the 2018-2021 market, BTC still has 5-10 months until the end of the cycle. If we experience similar gains as last run, the price of BTC could very well reach 200k at its peak.
The path of progress will be messy, as we've entered the distribution phase which will hover above the 100k level for the next 5-10 months, with multiple major corrections along the way. I highly doubt the price of BTC will fall below the previous 73k ATH.
This forecast bodes well for those holding altcoins, as we can expect to see a violent increase in prices over the next several months. There will be at least 1 major sell-off during this distribution phase, from which the top of the bull market forms and the bear market ensues.
I will exit the market if 1) BTC hits 200k, 2) we reach the end of 2025, or 3) the price firmly closes below the weekly 21 EMA.
Bottom line: brace yourself for volatility and prepare to exit the market.
Happy trading,
Melonfarmer
BTCUSD - A Simple Short-Term Observation20SMA - Blue
200SMA - Pink
Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines
Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines
Dear Friends:
If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service.
How I see it:
Persistent multiple rejections upwards, at this key psychological
level, may force a short-term correction
I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point o
BTCUSD // Levels matchedwww.tradingview.com
Friends, the levels are given on very high time frame which is weekly.
The smartness here is, the Cup is inside another cup.
The Fibonacci retracement target level is exactly matching where Cup and Handle target is.
So, we can consider its reliability.
I would love to see your comments for improvement if there is any. Request you to please provide your honest feedback.
Good luck.
BTC/USD: Navigating ATHs, Corrections, Long-Term TrajectoriesBitcoin has recently achieved a new all-time high (ATH), signaling strong bullish momentum. However, historical patterns suggest that a significant correction is imminent, with a potential decline of 32% to the $70,000 level. This critical juncture will define Bitcoin’s next move and its long-term trajectory.
Key Scenarios for BTC’s Path:
Scenario 1: Consolidation Above $90,000 and Push to $120,000 (March 2025)
Bitcoin’s first challenge is to maintain support above $90,000. If successful, the bullish momentum could drive BTC to a new ATH of $120,000 by March 2025.
Following this peak, BTC may face a significant correction to $40,000, signaling the end of the current market cycle.
Scenario 2: Correction to $70,000 Before Reclaiming $120,000 (July 2025)
If BTC struggles to hold $90,000, it could drop to $70,000 for a deeper correction.
After this retracement, a rebound could see BTC reaching $105,000–$109,000, before ultimately achieving the $120,000 ATH by July 2025.
This path ensures a more sustainable rally but still concludes with a cycle-ending correction to $40,000.
Long-Term Outlook: The Lowest Lows (2026)
As the market cools and enters a bearish phase, BTC may experience its lowest low between April and July 2026, targeting:
$38,000 (most likely scenario).
$33,000 (worst-case scenario).
Key Buying Opportunities:
For long-term investors, BTC’s anticipated price movements create excellent entry points:
First Buy: $41,000
Second Buy: $39,000
Best Buy: $33,000
Summary of BTC’s Cyclical Movement:
Short-Term: Fight to stay above $90,000 and potentially hit $120,000 by March 2025.
Mid-Term: Correct to $70,000 before establishing a new ATH by July 2025.
Long-Term: Fall to $38,000–$33,000 by mid-2026, marking the lowest phase of the cycle.
This roadmap emphasizes BTC’s cyclical nature, offering both opportunities and risks for investors to navigate strategically.
How High Can BITCOIN go versus GOLD (sorry uncle Peter Schiff)One of the frequent topics of discussion revolves around the legitimacy of this pattern. There’s a widespread misunderstanding about the continuation type of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Indeed, it is a valid and dependable chart pattern.
Let’s explore this often-recognized chart pattern in more detail.
The Head and Shoulders chart pattern can manifest as a continuation on price charts. In an uptrend, a continuation H&S will closely resemble a H&S bottom, while in a downtrend, it will look like an inverse H&S. The implications and interpretations of a continuation H&S are generally consistent with those of reversal patterns. Price targets can be established in the same manner as they are for reversal patterns.
When a head and shoulders continuation forms during an uptrend, it typically breaks out to new highs once the pattern is completed. Breakouts to all-time highs from bullish continuation patterns are often reliable and robust.
Edwards and Magee highlighted the H&S continuation in their book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends," back in the 1930s. The pattern remains largely unchanged in today’s price charts.
BTC LONG OPPORTUNITY BTC long opportunity to $103,670. Simple break out from a descending pattern coupled with rejection from the SMA's on 4hr time frame and the rejection from $99,000 on higher time frames, also notice the low test candle on the 4hr slightly piercing through that support level.
Expect a pull back at around $101,600 - $101,700 for liquidation and relief for retail traders. Fib would give us a target of $103,620 which is also the ATH for BTC so a good target to revisit.
BTCUSD BUY ANALYSIS FALLING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Btcusd price form a falling wedge pattern and now broken line 99860.68 so there is a chance of rising more up and trader should go for LONG and expect profit target of 102503.54 . Use money management
BTC CorrectionBTC is possibly forming a rising wedge pattern. Almost all of the supply is in profit. Market has not corrected yet and re-tested last ath levels.
After correction I presume uptrend to continue.
$Bitcoin bounceMARKETSCOM:BITCOIN bounce. So for now hold on and hold on and stay above 100k and we have a new ATH in our sights.
Have a nice weekend!
Be kind to the world and each other
BTC is hovering around 100K, trying to consolidateBTC is hovering around 100K, trying to consolidate before uptrend starts
Bitcoin Cycles: patternsThe Bitcoin chart shows the following patterns:
1. Halving, approximately every 1400 days.
2. 427 days from cycle high to cycle low.
3. From halving to cycle high - 518 days.
4. Each cycle low hits the previous peak.
5. After the correction, the price works out the Fibonacci levels of 2.618 and 3.618.
Based on these patterns, we can make the following conclusions:
1. The high of the current cycle should be in September 2025 at $150-200k.
2. The low should be in November 2026 at $65k.
3. If the next halving occurs in March 2028, the cycle high will be in August 2029 at $400-500k.
