Tesla to the down sideTesla going down Short of the retest of the moat recent Bearish Fair Value Gap.
TSLA trade ideas
TSLA wayyyy too high! Will crash to $280-$320 rangeRSI levels are completely elevated to a point that is just not sustainable for a car company. I buy the TSLA technology and "extras" but this level of elevated prices will drop very soon once reality hits and profit takers take advantage.
Leverage TSLZ to take advantage of this nice short x2 opportunity. Best of luck and do your dd!
TSLA to $420?TSLA has been on a tear over the past month or so. Using the Magic Linear Regression Channel indicator we look at the chart of TSLA and see that it has blown through a lot of the parallel channels, making it seem difficult to pinpoint. But, by adding an outer Fibonacci band to the Magic Linear Regression Channel, and selecting starting pivot highs followed by the biggest drops, we can form a channel that has an upper Fibonacci channel that coincides with the all-time high. However, since TSLA didn't get to Elon's favorite number, 420, last time around, I think it will make it there this time before correcting or consolidating. And, it could make it there before the end of the year.
TSLA Soars to Key Levels. Ready for December 12, 2024How to Trade Using GEX and Options Oscillator Insights!
Key Observations:
* Price Movement: TSLA is trading at $428.57, nearing the Highest Positive NETGEX / Call Resistance level.
* Volume Trends: High volume reflects significant interest and momentum in the stock.
GEX Levels:
1. Resistance Levels:
* 429.90: Immediate resistance, aligned with the Highest Positive NETGEX.
* 440 (2nd Call Wall): A breakout above $429.90 could lead to this level.
* 450 (3rd Call Wall): Extended bullish target.
2. Support Levels:
* 415: Immediate support; a breakdown could lead to a retest of lower levels.
* 390: Strong support reinforced by GEX levels.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 69.7 – Elevated IVR suggests high option premiums, favoring strategies like selling options or spreads.
* IVx (Implied Volatility Average): 67.3% – Reflects high expectations for price movement in the near term.
* Call %: 88.3% – Extremely bullish sentiment, with calls dominating puts significantly.
Trade Recommendations:
1. Bullish Setup:
* Trade: Buy TSLA $440 Call expiring December 22, 2024.
* Target: $440–$450.
* Stop Loss: Below $415.
2. Bearish Setup:
* Trade: Buy TSLA $415 Put expiring December 22, 2024.
* Target: $415 or lower.
* Stop Loss: Above $430.
Conclusion:
TSLA shows strong bullish momentum, with the GEX and Options Oscillator aligning for a potential breakout. However, elevated implied volatility and the dominance of calls highlight a sentiment-driven rally. Traders should watch $429.90 closely for breakout confirmation or failure at resistance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always trade responsibly and consider your risk tolerance.
Tesla - In a possible EW flat structureTesla could be in a Elliott wave 4th wave irregular flat correction. It seems there could be a little more to go to the upside. The idea is simple: sweep liquidity from above the ATH, dump, and sweep liquidity from below where people might have put stop losses. Look for signs of distribution above the current ATH.
Not financial advice.
Tesla UpdateAs mentioned on the last couple posts, I am just waiting for Tesla to hit a top and begin a consolidation to the downside again. For this post, I thought I would zoom out to give a more holistic picture of where we're at, and where I believe we're headed.
Looking at the chart there are a few things going on. At the top of the chart, you can see a time tool I have drawn to point out the duration of these larger moves. Our larger ((A)) wave lasted for about 428 days, while the larger ((B)) wave is going on 705 days. Then, looking at the yellow trend lines drawn, you can see we have slightly breached the upper trend. At the bottom I have drawn a line pointing out the ATH high MACD reading that we're approaching. RSI is in the way overbought territory too. You may be asking yourself; Why am I talking about all of these things? The reason I am pointing these different things out to you is to show how overextended this ticker is. To express that I believe it is just a matter of time until this stock comes back down.
Looking at the structure/pattern that has been created, I find it highly likely that Tesla forms a flat ABC pattern ending around the red 1.0 @ $100.09. The red fibs could change slightly should Tesla make another high. It won't be a big difference, but could slightly change, nonetheless. The next major move lower should be primary wave ((C)) of Cycle wave II and will likely last 1-3 years...if not longer. We cannot know for certain how long, but unless the wave (3) of ((5)) started out as a LD, we're head lower soon. The only other option aside from a LD is a corrective pattern, which is how I am counting this.
I hope this gives a clearer picture of where we've been, where we're at, and where we're headed. Please let me know if you have any questions.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - Potential Elliott Wave Setup🔍 Analysis Overview
This chart showcases a potential Elliott Wave structure on Tesla's daily timeframe. Here's the detailed breakdown:
Wave Progression:
Wave (1), (2), and (3) completed, with wave (4) anticipated to retrace.
Wave (4) Retracement Zone:
- Targeting the Fibonacci retracement zone between 0.382 (340.99) and 0.618 (280.16).
- This zone aligns with a confluence of the trendline and previous support levels.
Bullish Targets:
- First target at 440.13.
- Secondary targets at 470.80 (1.236) and 489.88 (1.382 extension).
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss positioned at 275.00 to manage downside risk.
📊 Indicators:
- RSI and MFI reflect potential overbought conditions in the current wave (3), supporting the likelihood of a corrective wave (4).
🚨 Important Notes:
This is a speculative wave count and assumes the continuation of the broader uptrend. Breaks below the stop-loss zone could invalidate the setup.
TSLA: Sell As we reached ATH, we have to be aware that the cup of cup & handle Motif is finished and we might see a correction of 1/3 or 2/3 of cup hight. This corresponds also to daily and weekly mean reversion target's. Risk/Reward ratio is to unfavourable to stay in. Better to sell
GEX Analysis for TSLA - Dec. 13, 2024Current Price: $419.85
IVR: 71.7
IVx Average: 67.5
Options Sentiment: Strong bullish sentiment with 83.8% in Calls.
Key Levels:
* HVL (High Volume Level): $380.00
* Support Levels:
* First Support: $407.50 (PUT Support)
* Second Support: $400.00 (GEX9 Level)
* Third Support: $390.00 (3rd CALL Wall)
* Resistance Levels:
* First Resistance: $420.00 (Highest Positive NETGEX Level)
* Second Resistance: $425.00 (2nd CALL Wall)
* Major Resistance: $435.00 (GEX10 Level)
Market Sentiment:
* TSLA shows strong bullish momentum as indicated by the dominance of Calls (83.8%). A breakout above $420.00 could pave the way to $425.00 and potentially $435.00.
* A breakdown below $407.50 might shift sentiment toward bearish targets at $400.00 or $390.00.
Actionable Strategy:
* Bullish Setup: Go long above $420.00, targeting $425.00, with a stop loss at $418.00.
* Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below $407.50, targeting $400.00, with a stop loss at $409.50.
Reminder:
Always monitor updated IVR and IVx metrics for live market conditions before entering trades. These provide critical insights to refine your strategy.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before trading.
Simple Bull vs Bear Targets and ConditionsSome simple bullish targets (yellow) for Tesla, conditioned upon remaining above the white neckline and getting and holding above the red one.
Simple bearish targets (orange) are conditioned upon losing the white neckline, and then dropping and losing the green one.
Nearer term bear targets could also simply be the white line, the green line, or the area of the weekly high and low of the last weekly low above the green line
Long $TSLAI am getting 100% of my exposure currently through NASDAQ:TSLL , I am very bullish on this setup for Tesla.
Bull catalysts:
Trump Victory - if this happens, I assume TSLA will pump just because of their close relationship
Federal EV Charging Re-compete - in the vein above, I don't see why Trump wouldn't open the failed federal funds of ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B to companies to recompute the contract- obviously Tesla could actually deliver the network of chargers more efficiently than GM et al.
QE - I overlaid the FFR on the bottom of this chart, since I think it is valuable information regarding the last time TSLA's face-melting rally began, it coincided with QE beginning.
Their humanoid robots also could be something, but I am not as versed with them. Any other catalysts I'm missing?
TSLZ to take advantage of TSLA dip to $280TSLA has had a nice run for about 2 months, but gravity always prevails and profit takers will push the price to about $280-300 range. You can use TSLZ to take advantage of this position IMHO!
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
TSLA huge potential check this out!!!Hi guys, I think tesla can go to 350+ really soon easily because of:
Bullish RSI b/o
Weekly MACD curl
5th time hitting 2y downtrend
Feds lowering rates
AI & Optimus potential
Tesla time to fireTesla ready for serious upmove from these levels. Cup and handle formation on the cards, some big announcement may come to push share up. Whats up elon ?
Trading JournalNew leader emerging post election,
got a 15% position, sold as it crossed ~~405 range as it is extended
and other leaders are getting hammered in the extended market.
WIll look to rebuy back
Sliding In December: Is Tesla (TSLA) Losing Its Spark?
As always, we like to keep it clean and simple, with technicals and analysis that's easy to see and understand. Let's get into it:
Losing all its spark? Nah. But, we see a correction for TSLA happening this December, starting within the next 1-2 days. Why?
- It’s currently bumping into price levels we last saw in 2022, which served as a strong ceiling back then and might trigger profit-taking now.
- It's well into a Wave 5 Elliott Wave, signaling exhaustion in 4h/8h/1D timeframes.
- Overbought.
Additionally, many are noting that Tesla’s valuation feels stretched compared to its earnings and growth prospects. Analysts point out that its current price may rely on overly optimistic assumptions about future market share, tech breakthroughs, and profitability. Some also highlight that competitors are catching up, which could eat into Tesla’s premium valuation. Meanwhile, skeptics argue that the stock’s recent run has simply gotten ahead of fundamentals, and a correction might be due as more realistic expectations set in.
We see a 10% slide to the $360 range.
Let's see what December brings.
Be Alert.
Trade Green.
TSLA - Next Bull Market ApproachesTSLA
Will hit ATH resistance soon.
There will likely be some sort of sell off...
But this trend looks strong.
I think this will soon break into the next bull market 👍.
The arrow was well drawn 😅 but I didn't post this one on TradingView
Not advice
Tesla: Are We Dropping to $350 or Climbing to $480?Good morning, trading family.
Tesla is sitting at a key level, and it looks like we’re about to see a big move. Here’s what I’m seeing:
Option 1:
We could see a drop of $50-$60, taking Tesla down to $350-$360 before it finds support and bounces back.
Option 2:
If Tesla holds here and starts pushing higher, it could climb to $440. After that, we might see either:
A pullback of $50-$60, OR
A continued run all the way to $480.
This is one of those times where the chart is doing the talking. Trade what you see, not what you hope for.
If this breakdown makes sense, hit like, follow, and share your thoughts below. Where do you think Tesla is headed next? Let’s figure it out together.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
TSLA LongTSLA currently priced @ 389.79 ... with a target of 400 and an extended target of 410-420
TSLA chart currently shows a breakout above the upper trend-line...
- the move to the upside will target 400 as a psych level with heavy liquidity being at 410 and 420 due to current open interest levels on call options.
- a move back to the downside will be considered a buy the dip opportunity or re-test of Friday and todays price action
- the opening price on Friday's candle and the low of today's candle will serve as support levels at 377.42 and 378 respectively
- holding 390 and breaking above the slight resistance at 397 opens up 400 and higher (This will rage!!)
Indicators like MACD & RSI are trending upwards and looking bullish
9-day EMA and 50-day EMA are both trending upwards and the 9-day EMA is trending upward and away from the 50 which is bullish.
Call options that are interesting:
-TSLA 400 Call 12/13
-Volume: 144,881 (contracts traded)
-Open Interest: 37,205 (open positions and liquidity)
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 3:1
-Open Interest for tomorrow has to open up around 75k plus. Why? As an investor or trader, you are looking to see people hold their investment position as a sign of trend confirmation and continuation
-TSLA 410 Call 12/13
-Volume: 43,965
-Open Interest: 4,923
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 9:1
-Open Interest for tomorrow has to open up around 25k
-TSLA 420 Call 12/13
-Volume: 57,432
-Open Interest: 37,598
-Volume to Open Interest ratio ~ 1.5:1
-Open Interest has to open up around - 45k
Trading Plan for TSLA: December 10, 2024Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance Levels:
* $390 (2nd Call Wall): A significant gamma-based resistance zone where market-makers may adjust their hedging activity, potentially capping upside momentum.
* $400 (Next Key Level): Breaking above $390 with strong volume could lead to a rally toward $400, supported by bullish momentum.
2. Support Levels:
* $380 (Gamma Support): Critical support level identified by the GEX indicator. A bounce from here would align with institutional activity.
* $370: If $380 breaks, $370 could be the next target, acting as the secondary gamma-supported level.
Scenarios and Trade Ideas
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Look for a breakout above $390, confirmed by increased volume and bullish MACD/RSI signals.
* Entry Point: $391 with a target of $400 and $410.
* Stop-Loss: Below $389 to minimize risk.
* Rationale: Gamma unwind above $390 could trigger additional upside momentum, supported by the trendline.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Watch for a breakdown below $380, accompanied by high selling volume and bearish indicators.
* Entry Point: $379 with a target of $370.
* Stop-Loss: Above $382.
* Rationale: Breaking gamma support at $380 could lead to a quick drop toward $370, reflecting market-maker adjustments.
Intraday Plan
1. Morning:
* Monitor the open for directionality. Look for any gap-up or gap-down behavior near $390 or $380 to confirm early momentum.
* Bullish: If price holds above $390 with rising volume, consider a long trade targeting $400.
* Bearish: If price fails to hold $390, short to $380 with tight stops.
2. Midday Consolidation:
* Expect price to hover near key gamma levels ($390 or $380). Scalping opportunities may arise within these zones.
* Use MACD and RSI to confirm entries during consolidation phases.
3. Afternoon Directional Move:
* Watch for potential breakouts or breakdowns from $390 or $380 as traders position for the next session.
* Align trades with GEX indicator levels for precision.
Key Indicators
1. Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Use $390 and $380 to gauge where institutional hedging may cause reversals or consolidations.
* Anticipate volatility near these levels.
2. Trendlines:
* Confirm bullish or bearish bias based on the price's respect or breach of trendlines.
3. MACD/RSI:
* Use MACD crossovers and RSI readings to validate momentum shifts around gamma zones.
Summary
For tomorrow's trading session, focus on price action near $390 (GEX Gamma key resistance) and $380 (GEX Gamma key support). Leverage gamma-based levels for precision entries and exits, and align with trendline and indicator confirmations for a well-rounded trading strategy. Keep risk management at the forefront and be prepared for high volatility at gamma pivot points.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor or conduct your own research before trading.
TSLA CRACK!TSLA cracking higher with a gap up breaking out of a wedge after several attempts this year,
Personally, I don't like wedges since they have a tendency to crack one way and reverse the other.
But having the entire US gov't giving you a free pass to do whatever you want without fear of being prosecuted for illegal activity and getting even more free money from the taxpayers. It might be different this time.
I can only tell you what the charts say.
Tesla At $400; More Gains After PullbackHey traders, hope everyone is doing well.
Today, I will looking at Tesla stock, which as you know has impressive gains for the last few weeks, due to speculation surrounding Trump's US presidential election win and connections with Elon Musk. This has fueled expectations of easier regulations for self-driving Tesla cars.
But loking at the structure, the current rally from 340 appears to be coming out of a triangle and has now reached the 400 area. Its the key swing high from 2022 and 2021, suggesting the potential for a pullback in the coming weeks.
So I think its better to wait for the next wave (4) retracement rather than chasing the market at these levels. If a wave four pullback occurs, support could be found between 311 and 350, especially if the decline unfolds in three waves.
GH
Tesla - Ending 2024 With A Parabolic Rally!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is clearly not done for 2024:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite (or maybe even because of) the strong rally during November of 2024, Tesla is clearly not done with its bullish plans yet. Market structure, cycles and also price action are all pointing to a stronger move higher and we will see at least a retest of the previous all time highs.
Levels to watch: $420
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
