$NVDA Expected move for earnings is between 134-160NASDAQ:NVDA Expected move for earnings is between 134-160
Which way do you think it will go??
NVDAD trade ideas
NVIDIA’s Next Move: Ready to Rally or Slip Lower?Good morning, trading family!
Let’s take a simple look at NVIDIA (NVDA) and where it might be headed from here. We’re at an important crossroads, so here’s what we’re watching:
If NVDA Moves Higher:
If NVDA can hold its current position, it has room to drive up into the $150 range. This could signal that buyers are stepping in and momentum is building for a rally.
If NVDA Moves Lower:
A drop could take us to the following key levels:
$144: First potential stop for support.
$138–$137: A zone where buyers might try to step in.
$132: A deeper pullback that could see some consolidation.
$129 and $120: These are lower support areas to watch if selling pressure continues.
How to Approach This:
Mark These Levels: Add them to your chart for reference.
Wait for Confirmation: Don’t rush in—see how NVDA reacts at each level.
Trade What You See: Let the price action guide you, not your emotions.
We’re at a moment where NVDA could make a strong move in either direction. Keep it simple, stay patient, and watch the levels.
Let’s make it a great trading day!
Mindbloome Trading // Kris
NVDA in a rising wedge, bearish before earningswww.tradingview.com
I have no doubt about NVDA's fundamentals and I'm bullish on the stock on the long-term. However, from a technical analysis perspective, the stock is showing signs of fatigue with a steadily declining 20-day average volume over the past several months. A clear divergence between volume and price suggests a potential reversal after the earnings release. Generally, after a 194% YTD performance and a broadening of the market since the US election, investors may take profits, which could lead to a pullback in the stock.
On the chart, NVDA is currently within a rising wedge, which could see it either hit the lower boundary and rebound or break down and find support at previous levels. I'm not currently invested, but I'm preparing to potentially short the stock after the earnings release, post-market.
Nvidia Q3 24 Earnings in Focus Q3 24 earnings for Nvidia (Nasdaq; ticker: NVDA) – a leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and data centre solutions market – and the company’s Q4 forward guidance will be released after the market closes today. Over the past two years, Nvidia's performance has been nothing short of remarkable, resulting in substantial growth in both share price and company revenue.
The Q2 24 earnings announcement revealed that data centre growth jumped to US$26.3 billion, rising 16% from Q1 24 and was up more than 150% compared to a year ago (Q2 23). This also helped fuel record quarterly revenue, rising 122% (US$30.0 billion) from a year ago (Q2 23). The company’s bottom line – net income – doubled to nearly US$17 billion in Q2 24, compared to a little over 6US$ billion a year ago (Q2 23).
Earnings for Nvidia are set to be reported for the fiscal quarter ending on October 31 of this year. This event is highly anticipated on Wall Street, with significant expectations from investors. According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), the results could influence the short-term direction of the US stock market. Notably, Nvidia has contributed to approximately 20% of the returns in the S&P 500 over the past year. Therefore, today’s earnings release will likely impact stock market indexes, with implied options suggesting a potential 10% swing in the company’s share price following the earnings announcement.
Earnings will take centre stage, and the company's forward guidance will also be significant. Investors will be particularly focused on margin and market share levels to see if they remain stable as the company works to get Blackwell operational. This also comes after Nvidia recently surpassed Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to become the largest company in the world by market capitalisation, now valued at $US3.6 trillion.
Other key metrics to keep an eye on:
• Net income: US$17.4 billion expected versus US$9.2 billion a year earlier
• Revenue: US$33.1 billion expected versus US$30.0 billion in Q2 24
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): US$0.75 per share expected versus US$0.38 a year earlier
Analysts Favour Buying
The company’s growth and strong performance are expected to have continued in Q3 24. According to data provided by Refinitiv, 90% of the analysts polled currently rated the stock as a ‘Buy’ (33% of which rated it as a ‘Strong Buy’). Around 10% of the analysts suggested a ‘Hold’.
Year to date, the NVDA stock is up nearly 200%, with the company’s share price rallying 20% since pencilling in a low of US$90.69 at the end of August. Over the previous five years, the stock has also rallied an eye-watering 2,600%.
What Are the Charts Saying?
It would be an understatement to say that the stock is trending higher. The higher highs and higher lows seen on the weekly chart are a textbook definition of an uptrend. At the tail end of September, the stock ruptured the upper boundary of a pennant pattern (drawn from the high of US$140.76 and US$90.69) and has since pushed higher. Generally, once a chart pattern completes – pencils in a breakout – traders will look to apply the pattern’s take-profit objective, which in this case, can be found by extending the pole’s value from the breakout point. As you can imagine, this would involve a profit objective at around US$450.00.
Over on the daily chart, the stock has been caught within an ascending channel since the middle of October, extended from US$128.74 and US$144.42. You will also note that the stock left the lower boundary of its ascending channel unchallenged this week and rallied nearly 5.0% yesterday. Technically, this indicates strength and a breakout above the upper boundary of the ascending channel to potentially refresh all-time highs.
Written by FP Markets market analyst Aaron Hill.
NVDA Possible play's Again my cus trades stocks so I figured I would post what I charted up for him. When looking at possible play's you will need to go down to a 2min time frame to get your entries. With the gaps in these stocks it can be difficult to find entries with so much missing data. maybe I don't pay enough to see it . I cannot post lower time frames and zones but set up 30min wick highs / lows -zones 3 candles back and you will see the support and resistance
NVDIA - Arguments For BullsMedianlines (Pitchforks) do not forecast.
They PROJECT the most probable path of price.
At each moment in time, a "Medianline/Pitchfork Analyst" can relay on the rules and the framework they provide.
In this case I see the following arguments for a continuation to the upside:
- price is above the Center-Line
- price did test the CL two times and hold
- price was attempted to test the CL a third time, but was even too strong to reach it, and is now in this very momentum to the upside
- when price trades towards a Medain-Line but can't reach it, it's a sign that price will continue the direction it had before (up in this case). The next Target is the "next" Medianline, which is the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel)
- price broke the blue-dashed A/R line to the upside
All said, we have to keep in mind that there is also a opposite side of the Coin. I will provide another Chart Analysis with "Arguments For Bears".
Nvda results tonight. Be careful…
NVIDIA Earnings Today: Strong Results Expected, But Future Outlook Raises Questions
NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to release its earnings today, and analysts are anticipating strong results, with projected revenue of around $33.1 billion and EPS estimates of $0.71. Given NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI and semiconductor markets, the company is expected to meet or slightly beat expectations. However, looking ahead, there are several factors that could challenge its future growth and stock performance:
1. Supply Chain Constraints
NVIDIA has faced production bottlenecks, particularly with its new Blackwell AI chips. These challenges could slow revenue growth and limit the company’s ability to meet increasing demand.
2. Market Saturation
The semiconductor industry is showing signs of a slowdown in global chip demand, with inventory excess becoming an issue. Coupled with increasing competition from companies like AMD and Intel, NVIDIA’s pricing power and market share could be affected.
3. Economic and Sector Volatility
Broader economic uncertainty and volatility in the tech sector pose risks to investor sentiment. While AI remains a hot topic, the tech sector has seen significant layoffs, which could indicate a slowdown in spending on high-end hardware.
4. Regulatory and Geopolitical Challenges
U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China and other regions could limit NVIDIA’s market opportunities. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, these restrictions may become a bigger hurdle for future growth.
Outlook
While NVIDIA’s earnings are expected to be strong, the stock’s performance may hinge on its forward guidance. If growth projections fail to address these headwinds, we could see negative sentiment around the stock, even with positive earnings results. Investors should carefully evaluate the long-term potential of the AI and semiconductor markets when considering NVIDIA’s future.
For me I’m edging towards the bearish yet I’m back to sitting on my hands till after the results. The reason for me going bearish is the both the weekly and the daily macd have diverged along with the fact that the last release was a beat yet we had a slight decline post release.
What are your thoughts? Will NVIDIA’s strong results outweigh these challenges, or could the future bring pressure
What happened? $Nvidia surged nearly 5%!!!!Reason1: Cooling of Blackwell overheating issues boosts confidence.
Concerns about overheating in Nvidia's latest high-end chip, Blackwell, had been widely discussed. However, multiple authoritative analysis firms and Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that these issues have been resolved. Industry analysts noted that such problems have been effectively mitigated, with negligible impact on chip performance and supply cadence. This clear positive signal has instilled confidence in investors regarding Blackwell’s stability and market prospects.
Reason2: Technological advancements raise expectations.
As Nvidia's most advanced chip to date, the complete resolution of design issues marks its research and production entering a mature phase. Coupled with its powerful computing capabilities and potential applications in AI and data centers, market expectations for the product's profitability have significantly increased, serving as a key driver of Nvidia's stock surge.
Reason3: Professional analysis alleviates concerns.
Semiconductor analysis firm-Semianalysis indicated that the supply chain adjustments related to the overheating issue were merely "minor modifications" with almost no effect on the chip's actual performance. This analysis helped the market move past excessive worries about Blackwell’s overheating issues, laying the groundwork for Nvidia to regain investor trust in the short term.
Reason4: Stock price retraces to strong support levels.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price moving in a bullish channel, recently retracing to an upward trend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci support level. This support has triggered a rise, indicating that previous movements were merely weak short-term corrections.
Under the combined influence of these favorable factors, Nvidia's stock jumped nearly 5% in a single day, not only boosting its own valuation but also uplifting the tech sector and the broader market. However, whether this upward trend can continue in the short term will depend on today's earnings report. For specific operational strategies, please refer to my last post : "NVIDIA Earnings Preview: Strategy Notes for Q3 Report."
NVDA earnings 11/20NVDA cycle target 225 , but it has run a lot and is in the 3rd cycle without a major pullback.
Congestion zone 137/153
Above 153 move is 165/181
Below 137 move is 133-121/116
This is still a range bound move and coming days it needs to decide power over 153 or puke below 121.
If straight run towards 225 without any major pullback , in coming year , I would look for some good correction in overall markets
Watch this before Nvidia Earnings! 25% Upside🚨Watch this before Nvidia Earnings! 25% Upside 🚨
In this video, we’re diving into:
🔹Technical Analysis
🔹Earnings Preview
🔹My High Five Setup Trading Strategy
Let’s dive in and uncover the insights you need before they report! 👇
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:NVDL
NVIDIA DID WHAT I SHOWN IN PREVIOUS POSTNVIDIA come down and filled the gap which i told you already.Now what i am observing that is shown by yellow lines if you see it is following this two lines for JULY .So on the basis of this trand i can say that until it is broken NVIDIA will gradually go up following this two lines,And here mentioned supports and resistances at gann fann cross lines is my prediction only, It is my observation not buy/sell call.
ONCE IN A LIFETIMEONCE IN A LIFETIME:
10x Your Money in 3 Years.
Buy NASDAQ:NVDA $145 Calls expiring Jan 15, 2027 - currently at a great price.
NVIDIA's growth is unparalleled.
This could be your most
PROFITABLE move yet.
Like & Follow for more top investment tips.
NVDA Long H4 Focusing on PullbackBuy Limit @ 118.85
S/L @ 90.20
T/P1 @ 147.49
T/P2 @ -------
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action Trading based on Pullback of Key Level.
NVDA at these prices!?! Yes, please. LONG at 140.15You can check my previous NVDA idea to see just exactly how smitten I am with it. Quick summary of that: we are in the early stages of an AI revolution, and NVDA has no serious competitors and they can't make their chips fast enough. I rest my case.
Now those who follow me know I HATE trading stocks near earnings. WAY too much volatility. But NVDA is a stock I will happily make an exception for. Could they disappoint? Sure. But I can't say this loudly enough based on the results of my trading system backtest on NVDA:
THERE IS NO BAD TIME TO BUY NVDA
My system is a perfect 717-0 since NVDA stock began trading. If NVDA has a bad earnings report, I'll just buy more. If you want to know why, go back and check the price levels of every previous "miss" and compare them to where the stock is today. As long as the items in the summary thesis I wrote above stay true, I'm in on a long trade.
I'm just mad that I missed out on the last two times it was on sale because my portfolio was already full. Not this time. Long today at 140.15 and I will keep adding as long as my algo screams "OVERSOLD!" I will be using a different exit strategy than usual, though.
Even with NVDA I'd prefer not to be long at earnings, so I'll use my FPC exit strategy and if it's profitable at the close tomorrow, I'll take my money, thank NVDA profusely, and walk away. There will always be other opportunities and I'm not a greedy man. I'll leave sweating out hoped for earnings moonshots for others. There's plenty of other places I can make money in the market.
NIVIDIA, Bullish ExpectationsNVDA tested the O.T.E and the next price target is the daily pivot point.
The Future of AI Operations: MLOps and NVIDIA's VisionMLOps: Transforming AI into Scalable Enterprise Solutions
In today’s fast-evolving technological landscape, MLOps (Machine Learning Operations) has emerged as a vital discipline for businesses striving to scale AI solutions effectively. This burgeoning field combines machine learning, DevOps, and data engineering to streamline the development, deployment, monitoring, and management of machine learning models in production.
While MLOps was initially shaped by generalized practices, industry leaders like NVIDIA have taken this framework to new heights, integrating it with cutting-edge hardware and software to drive enterprise AI innovation. Here's a comprehensive look at MLOps and how NVIDIA has helped businesses unlock the true potential of AI. As NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA prepares to release its third-quarter earnings, with estimates of $0.74 per share and $32.81 billion in revenue, its dominance in AI and MLOps underscores the strategic importance of these technologies in today’s digital economy.
What Is MLOps?
At its core, MLOps is a set of best practices, tools, and methodologies designed to operationalize machine learning models, ensuring they remain reliable, scalable, and effective in dynamic environments. It builds on the principles of DevOps, extending them to include data scientists and machine learning engineers, ensuring seamless collaboration across teams.
MLOps enables businesses to:
1. Automate repetitive processes such as model training, deployment, and monitoring.
2. Ensure reproducibility of experiments and results.
3. Scale AI solutions as businesses grow.
4. Continuously monitor and refine models to prevent performance degradation over time.
Core Components of MLOps
1. Data Pipeline Management:
- Automating data collection, cleaning, and preprocessing.
- Managing real-time data streams for dynamic model training.
2. Model Development and Experimentation:
- Providing tools for tracking experiments, version control, and reproducibility.
- Allowing iterative experimentation to optimize models for specific tasks.
3. Model Deployment:
- Deploying models into production environments using containers (e.g., Kubernetes, Docker).
- Supporting diverse deployment scenarios, including real-time inference and edge computing.
4. Monitoring and Maintenance:
- Continuously monitoring model performance for accuracy, latency, and resource efficiency.
- Automating retraining pipelines to adapt to changes in data or operational requirements.
5. Scalability and Governance:
- Enabling enterprises to scale AI solutions across large datasets and infrastructures.
- Ensuring compliance with industry standards and ethical AI guidelines.
Here's a practical pie chart showing the distribution of effort across key stages in the MLOps workflow: Data Collection, Model Training, Model Deployment, and Monitoring.
MLOps in Action: The NVIDIA Story
As one of the pioneers in AI and GPU-based computing, NVIDIA has played a transformative role in advancing MLOps, enabling businesses to scale and operationalize AI solutions with unprecedented efficiency. By providing a robust ecosystem of hardware, software, and services, NVIDIA has set a gold standard for MLOps in enterprise AI.
1. NVIDIA’s AI Infrastructure:
NVIDIA’s DGX Systems and DGX SuperPODs deliver the computational power needed to train and deploy complex AI models. These GPU clusters provide unmatched scalability, making them ideal for handling large datasets and real-time AI workloads.
Example: The DGX BasePOD architecture allows organizations to create powerful GPU clusters optimized for AI development and deployment.
2. NVIDIA AI Enterprise Suite:
The NVIDIA AI Enterprise platform includes tools like:
- Triton Inference Server for efficient model deployment.
- TAO Toolkit for fine-tuning pre-trained models with minimal coding.
- RAPIDS for accelerating data science workflows.
These tools simplify the end-to-end AI lifecycle, ensuring businesses can deploy and manage AI models with ease.
3. Real-World Use Cases:
- Retail Optimization: A major retailer used MLOps capabilities in a public cloud powered by NVIDIA GPUs to create an AI service that reduced food waste by 8-9%. By forecasting when to restock shelves, the retailer optimized inventory management and minimized spoilage.
- Predictive Maintenance: A PC manufacturer utilized NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure to predict laptop maintenance needs, enabling proactive updates and reducing downtime for customers.
Scaling MLOps with NVIDIA and Cloud Providers
NVIDIA has partnered with major cloud providers to integrate MLOps capabilities into their platforms:
- AWS SageMaker: Accelerates machine learning workflows with NVIDIA GPUs, enabling automated model training and deployment.
- Google NASDAQ:GOOGL Vertex AI: Leverages NVIDIA GPUs for seamless scaling and orchestration of AI models.
- Azure Machine Learning: Offers NVIDIA-optimized infrastructure for developing responsible AI solutions.
- Alibaba NYSE:BABA Cloud and Oracle Cloud: Provide NVIDIA-powered platforms for quick experimentation and deployment of machine learning projects.
These integrations allow businesses to choose flexible, cloud-based solutions for their AI needs, reducing operational overhead while ensuring performance and scalability.
Here's a bar chart illustrating the resource allocation in AI infrastructure across Compute Resources, Storage, Networking, and Software Tools.
Why NVIDIA Excels in MLOps
1. Industry-Leading Hardware: NVIDIA’s GPUs are designed for high-performance AI workloads, enabling rapid training and inference.
2. End-to-End Solutions: From infrastructure to software tools, NVIDIA offers a comprehensive ecosystem for MLOps.
3. Focus on Standards: NVIDIA’s collaboration with the AI Infrastructure Alliance (AIIA) helps set industry standards and best practices for MLOps.
4. Support for Open-Source Tools: NVIDIA works with open-source platforms like Kubeflow and ClearML, ensuring flexibility for developers and engineers.
With a revenue estimate of $32.81 billion for Q3, NVIDIA’s financial success reflects its role in pioneering AI infrastructure and MLOps solutions. Its offerings, like DGX systems and AI Enterprise, continue to dominate the enterprise AI landscape
MLOps: The Future of AI in Business
The rapid adoption of AI across industries underscores the importance of robust MLOps frameworks. With NVIDIA’s contributions, enterprises can now manage the full lifecycle of AI development, from data collection to model deployment, with confidence and efficiency.
Whether it’s optimizing retail operations, predicting maintenance, or developing cutting-edge applications, MLOps ensures that AI becomes a seamless part of an organization’s digital ecosystem. Thanks to pioneers like NVIDIA, the vision of scalable, reliable, and impactful AI is now a reality.
Final Thoughts
MLOps is more than just a framework—it’s a paradigm shift in how businesses approach AI. By leveraging NVIDIA’s advanced tools, infrastructure, and partnerships, organizations can achieve unparalleled efficiency, scalability, and innovation in their AI endeavors. The journey from experimentation to enterprise-ready AI has never been more accessible or powerful.
As NVIDIA announces its Q3 results, the company’s vision for the future of AI operations becomes even more critical. The expected revenue of $32.81 billion underscores how integral MLOps and AI are to the company's continued growth and innovation.
The chart visualizations in this article were created using the TradingView platform, a leading solution for market analysis and charting. Special thanks to TradingView for providing an exceptional platform that supports traders and analysts worldwide.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - NVDA ShortNVDA is retesting the $144 area along with a trendline it broke below recently. I like the short side here down to $140 and potentially lower. Stop above $144 or high of day with an upside target of the trendline above/ATH.
Beyond Fallacy, Heuristic, and Bias..!Fallacy, heuristic, and bias are terms often used in psychology, logic, and decision-making, each referring to concepts that influence how we think and make judgments. Here’s a breakdown of each:
1. Fallacy
A fallacy is a flaw in reasoning or logic that undermines the validity of an argument or conclusion. Fallacies can be either formal (based on a structural flaw in deductive reasoning) or informal (based on errors in reasoning related to content or context). Common types of fallacies include:
• Ad Hominem: Attacking the person instead of the argument.
• Straw Man: Misrepresenting someone’s argument makes it easier to attack.
• False Dilemma: Presenting two extreme options when more exist.
• Circular Reasoning: Using the conclusion as one of the premises.
Fallacies are often unintentional and can result from poor reasoning or emotional biases.
2. Heuristic
A heuristic is a mental shortcut or rule of thumb that people use to make decisions or solve problems more efficiently. While heuristics can help us make decisions quickly, they can sometimes lead to errors or biases. They are not guaranteed to be accurate but are practical for navigating complex or uncertain situations.
Common heuristics include:
• Availability heuristic: Judging the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind.
• Representativeness heuristic: Making judgments based on how similar something is to a prototype, rather than on statistical reasoning.
• Anchoring heuristic: Relying heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
3. Bias
A bias is a systematic deviation from rational judgment or decision-making. It often results from heuristics or emotional influences and can affect how people perceive information, interpret data, or make decisions. Biases can lead to faulty reasoning and skewed judgments.
Types of cognitive biases include:
• Confirmation bias: Focusing on information that confirms preexisting beliefs and ignoring contradictory evidence.
• Overconfidence bias: Overestimating the accuracy of one’s knowledge or abilities.
• Framing effect: Being influenced by how information is presented, rather than the content itself.
In summary:
• Fallacies are errors in reasoning that invalidate arguments.
• Heuristics are mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making but can lead to errors.
• Biases are systematic deviations from rationality, often caused by heuristics or emotional factors.
Here's a concise overview of fallacies, heuristics, and biases in trading:
Fallacies:
1. Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence
2. Survivorship Bias: Focusing only on successful trades/investors, overlooking failures
3. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing a losing trade because of previous investment
Heuristics:
1. Availability Heuristic: Overemphasizing recent or memorable market events
2. Anchoring Heuristic: Relying too heavily on first piece of information encountered
3. Representative Heuristic: Assuming current market conditions will continue based on limited data
Cognitive Biases:
1. Loss Aversion: Feeling losses more intensely than equivalent gains
2. Overconfidence Bias: Overestimating personal trading abilities
3. Herding Bias: Following market crowd instead of independent analysis
4. Recency Bias: Giving more weight to recent market performance
5. Emotional Bias: Making decisions based on fear or greed rather than rational analysis
Mitigation Strategies:
- Develop systematic trading rules
- Use objective criteria for entry/exit
- Maintain a trading journal
- Practice disciplined risk management
- Regular self-assessment and strategy review
NVDA Earnings - A gamblers paradiseQuick update on NVDA going into earnings
Video explains much, but from an upside perspective, I'm expecting resistance to hit at about $160 if we do get that gap up with an extended move to $168 possible. Beyond that would be a little unexpected.
To the downside, I'm looking at the support at $132 and below that, $123 - all based on fibonacci confluence. There are price action supports that would also support this as well. Beyond $123 would also be unexpected at this time.
Trading earnings is highly volatile, so do it with care and don't overleverage yourself!
Have a great day!
Nvidia Q3 Earnings PreviewAI powerhouse Nvidia is gearing up to unveil its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, November 20th. With market expectations riding high and the stock already enjoying a stellar year, all eyes are on whether Nvidia can maintain its momentum. Let’s dive into what’s driving the anticipation for this key earnings release.
Can Nvidia Beat the Street?
Expectations for Nvidia’s Q3 results are sky-high, with Wall Street forecasting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.75, representing an 88% year-over-year increase. Revenue estimates are equally robust at $33.09 billion, an 82.6% jump compared to the same period last year.
The data centre segment, Nvidia’s largest revenue driver, is expected to continue benefiting from the global surge in AI adoption, with particular strength in demand for GPUs used in AI training. The market will also watching closely for updates on Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to future growth, despite current supply chain constraints causing some margin pressures.
Beyond data centres, Nvidia’s other business segments, such as professional visualisation and gaming, are projected to post moderate growth. While gaming revenue has shown signs of recovery over recent quarters, money managers will be keen to understand whether this segment can return to pre-pandemic levels, given increasing competition and inventory challenges.
Guidance for Q4 will also be a critical factor. The market is looking for clarity on whether Nvidia can sustain its impressive growth trajectory into the new fiscal year, particularly as macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory scrutiny pose potential risks to its operations.
Key Levels: Technical Analysis
Nvidia’s long-term uptrend is undeniable, with shares tripling in value this year. The stock has consistently held above its 200-day moving average and established a supportive ascending trendline fan. Additionally, the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the start of the year has proven to be a key dynamic support zone during pullbacks, such as the one in August.
That said, recent price action suggests a need for caution among bulls. Nvidia recently rallied to retest its June highs, but progress above this level has been limited. Currently, the stock is trading below the June highs, a sign of potential resistance. This failure, coupled with negative RSI divergence, indicates waning momentum in the short term.
Whether Wednesday’s Q3 earnings will inject fresh life into Nvidia’s uptrend or mark a pause in its meteoric rise remains to be seen.
NVDA Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Key Levels to Watch
• Resistance: June highs and last week’s trend highs.
• Short-term Support: The trendline fan.
• Major Support: VWAP anchored to the start of the year and the 200-day moving average.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Nvidia Testing Key Ichimoku Support Ahead of EarningsUpcoming Earnings
The Nvidia Corporation (ticker: NVDA) is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes tomorrow. The consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate for the fiscal quarter ending October 2024 is US$0.70; the reported EPS for the same quarter a year prior was US$0.38.
Trend Favouring Dip Buying
Ahead of the company’s earnings report later this week, there is no denying that buyers remain in control. Despite a moderate correction in June and July, the NVDA stock has largely been one-way traffic to the upside, up around 180% this year so far.
You will see that the NVDA stock recently established a correction from an all-time high of US$150.00 and is currently testing the Ichimoku’s Base Line (red at US$139.26). Between this value and the Ichimoku’s Conversion Line just above it (Blue at US$143.46), this area, also the case in October, can provide investors with a support zone to work with. Adding to this, you will also see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the 50.00 centreline, which can – and often does – provide support for the stock.
In the event that current support fails, Ichimoku traders will be closely watching the Ichimoku Cloud Support zone between the Leading Span B (light orange at US$125.36) and the Leading Span A (light green at US$141.36).
Price Direction?
With the stock trending northbound and the RSI close to testing the 50.00 centreline support, as well as price action currently respecting the lower boundary of the space formed between the Ichimoku’s Conversion and Base Lines, this could be a location that buyers attempt to lift the stock higher.
NVIDA IS READY TO STRIKE A BULL RUNThe monthly bull run is showing a strong rejection with a W pattern. As you move down into the weekly you can clearly see a solid W formation with a pin hammer indicating a rise in price is on its way. The daily shows a solid Fib and with a sign is weakness to the down side. I am expecting to see some form a bull run this week.
NVIDIA Earnings Preview: Strategy Notes for Q3 ReportPre-Earnings Strategy: First things first—know the key numbers and the market expectations. But keep in mind, NVIDIA’s revenue recognition can get tricky, so don’t be surprised by unpredictable results. This is why a solid strategy, proper positioning, and downside protection are essential going into the report.
1. Core Numbers & Expectations
Where do Buy-Side Expectations Come From? NVIDIA has been beating guidance by around $2 billion each quarter and then raising guidance by another $2 billion (last quarter they raised it by $2.5 billion).
For Q3, the guidance given in Q2 was $32.5B. Based on the trend, buy-side expectation bumps that up by another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B , so the real expectation for Q3 is $34.5B.
Looking ahead to Q4, buy-side is expecting GETTEX:39B (Q3 actual $34.5B + $2.5B + another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B ). To make the buy-side comfortable with this, the Q4 guide needs to come in at least at $38B (realistically, even FWB:37B could suffice).
Key Takeaway for a Big Beat: Q3 revenue needs to hit $34.5B, and Q4 guidance should be at $38B, with Blackwell contributing over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B in Q4.
2. What the Analysts Think
This is a mega-cap stock, so pretty much every sell-side analyst has a report. But let’s just focus on the key voices from Goldman (Hari), UBS (Arcuri), and Morgan Stanley (Moore), aka the “HAM Trio.”
For Q3:
Moore: Bearish—expects $32.5B
Hari & Arcuri: Neutral-Bullish—expect around $34.3B
For Q4 Guidance:
Moore: Bearish—expects $35.3B
Hari: Bullish—expects $39.2B
Arcuri: Bullish—expects $38.9B
3. Q4 Blackwell Revenue Breakdown
Management previously mentioned Q4 Blackwell revenue could be “several billion.” If it’s $2-3B, that’s below expectations. $5-6B would be a strong beat.
Moore: Expects $5-6B (bullish on Blackwell)
Arcuri: Expects only SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B (more conservative)
4. Summary of Analyst Divergence
There’s a clear split among the top analysts, particularly around the Q4 guidance. This divergence sets up potential volatility.
5. Trading Strategy
1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: If the stock dips ahead of earnings, consider adding to the position. If there’s a rally, trim some to lock in profits.
2. Post-Earnings Reaction: If it tanks, be ready to add more, since Q1 of FY25 is expected to be a breakout quarter.
3. Hedging with Options: Use options to protect existing stock positions—don’t go into earnings unhedged.
Implied Move Post-Earnings:
The options market is pricing in about a 9% move, which puts the stock between $128-$153 (current price is around $141).
Options Strategies
Bullish Play (Betting on a Big Rally): Buy calls, but keep it small—treat it as a high-risk, high-reward play. If it goes to zero, it won’t hurt too much.
Lower-Cost Bullish Play: Consider a call spread (buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call). This caps your upside but reduces the cost.
Protecting Existing Long Stock Positions: Use covered calls. If the stock tanks, you get some downside protection from the premium. If it rallies, you still make money up to the strike price, plus the premium collected. The downside is losing the stock if it gets called away above the strike.
Want to Buy the Dip After Earnings? Sell puts. If the stock drops, you get assigned shares at a lower price and keep the premium. If it rallies, you pocket the premium.
