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In the September FOMC minutes, we confirmed that there were a few members who did not agree with the 50bp rate cut by the Fed. These members expressed concerns that a rapid rate cut could trigger the reemergence of inflation or send unnecessary recession signals to the market. Along with this, the recent surprise in U.S. employment figures has led to continued speculation about the possibility of a rate hold at the November FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the central bank released its minutes, confirming that during the September 23-24 meeting, they agreed that given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, all scenarios—rate cuts, holds, and hikes—were still on the table.
In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its base rate by 50bp, from 5.25% to 4.75%.
- The U.S. September Consumer Price Index will be released on October 10.
- On October 11, the UK’s GDP, Germany’s September CPI, and the U.S. September Producer Price Index will be announced.
The AUD/USD is experiencing significant resistance around the 0.69400 level. It has now fallen to the 0.67000 level, and further declines toward 0.66000 are anticipated. The most likely scenario, based on the current chart, is a drop to 0.66000, followed by a rebound back to 0.69000.
However, if the market unexpectedly breaks through the 0.66000 level, I will quickly adjust the strategy accordingly.
